The conflicting accounts on Monday exposed deep uncertainty over a diplomatic initiative that Trump said had persuaded him to halt a planned military attack. He maintained that discussions were under way and could quickly produce an agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz before addressing Iran’s nuclear programme.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei rejected the assertion. He said no talks with the United States were being conducted and no Iranian delegation had travelled abroad for negotiations. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was visiting Iraq for religious purposes rather than diplomacy, Baghaei added.
Trump responded by accusing Tehran of duplicity and describing the proposed negotiations as Iran’s “last chance” to secure what he termed a good deal. He warned that failure could bring a sharp escalation in US military action, including strikes against Iran’s remaining command structure and strategic infrastructure.
The president said the United States had been preparing a major operation before appeals from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE prompted him to pause. Gulf governments have intensified efforts to prevent another round of attacks that could threaten energy installations, shipping lanes and American military bases across the region.
The immediate focus is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage connecting the Gulf with the Arabian Sea. Iran has continued to assert control over movements through the waterway, while Washington insists commercial shipping must be allowed to pass without interference or additional charges.
Tehran confirmed that it was holding discussions with Oman on maritime arrangements. Those contacts, however, were presented as talks concerning navigation and shipping rather than direct negotiations with Washington. Oman has repeatedly acted as an intermediary between the two governments, including during earlier rounds of nuclear diplomacy.
Trump said he expected the strait could reopen fully within a short period. His administration is pursuing a two-stage approach under which an arrangement on maritime access would be followed by negotiations aimed at preventing Iran from rebuilding or expanding its nuclear capabilities.
The disagreement over whether talks exist reflects a wider struggle over diplomatic presentation. Washington wants to demonstrate that military pressure has forced Tehran towards concessions. Iran is seeking to avoid any appearance that it entered negotiations under threat, particularly after months of strikes, sanctions and naval restrictions.
Oil markets reacted strongly to the possibility of de-escalation. Brent crude fell below $83 a barrel at one stage, while US benchmark prices dropped to about $79. The declines reflected expectations that an agreement could reduce risks to tanker traffic and restore more predictable energy flows through the Gulf.
Those gains remain vulnerable to abrupt reversals. Shipping companies continue to face elevated insurance costs, rerouting expenses and security concerns. Any attack on a tanker, naval vessel or regional energy installation could rapidly erase the market relief generated by Trump’s decision to suspend the planned strikes.
Iran has demanded guarantees against further attacks and relief from restrictions on its oil exports before accepting a broader settlement. Washington, meanwhile, wants enforceable limits on Tehran’s nuclear programme, unrestricted maritime passage and an end to threats against US forces and Gulf partners.
The nuclear issue remains the most difficult element. Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear agreement during his first presidential term and restored sweeping sanctions. Subsequent efforts to revive restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment failed as both sides expanded their demands and questioned the other’s willingness to comply.
The latest confrontation has reinforced the importance of intermediaries. Oman remains central to discussions over the strait, while Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Pakistan have participated in efforts to prevent further escalation. Their governments fear that a prolonged conflict would damage trade, investment and energy exports while exposing civilian infrastructure to attack.
Trump’s public ultimatum also places pressure on his administration. Calling the initiative Iran’s final opportunity raises expectations of either a diplomatic breakthrough or renewed military action. Previous deadlines have been extended or modified when mediators produced proposals that allowed negotiations to continue.
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