Trump pushes Iran deal over Hormuz

President Donald Trump has said a peace agreement with Iran is close to completion, raising expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz after months of conflict disrupted one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

Trump wrote on Saturday that an agreement had been “largely negotiated” but remained subject to finalisation between the United States, Iran and other countries involved in the talks. He said the arrangement would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the final details were being discussed and would be announced shortly.

The statement followed calls involving leaders from the Middle East and South Asia, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain and Israel. Pakistan has emerged as a central mediator, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military leadership pressing both sides towards a ceasefire extension and a broader negotiating framework.

The proposed arrangement is understood to focus first on extending the ceasefire, restoring commercial shipping through Hormuz and easing some restrictions affecting Iranian ports and oil exports. Wider negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and regional security guarantees are expected to follow if the first phase holds.

Tehran has not fully endorsed Trump’s description of the proposal. Iranian-linked outlets have indicated that Iran would continue to manage the waterway and would not accept language implying external control over navigation through the strait. That distinction could become a major test of whether the emerging framework can be turned into a formal agreement.

Hormuz remains the central economic pressure point in the crisis. Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and petroleum products moved through the narrow passage between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. The route is also vital for liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar and the UAE, leaving energy markets highly exposed to any interruption.

The near-shutdown of traffic through the strait since the outbreak of hostilities has forced Gulf producers to cut output, redirected shipping routes and lifted fuel costs across major importing economies. Asia has been particularly exposed, as China, India, Japan and South Korea receive a large share of the crude and condensate shipped through Hormuz.

The draft deal appears designed to separate immediate maritime and ceasefire issues from the more difficult nuclear dispute. One version under discussion would allow Iran to resume oil sales during a defined ceasefire period while committing to talks on uranium enrichment limits, stockpile controls and future inspections. Washington would, in return, ease some port and oil-related restrictions while retaining leverage for later negotiations.

The diplomatic opening follows a sharp escalation that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February and was followed by Iranian retaliation. The conflict widened pressure on Gulf infrastructure and shipping, with insurers, refiners and tanker operators reassessing risk across the region. A ceasefire has held since April, but both sides have continued to warn that military action could resume if talks fail.

Trump’s announcement has also exposed divisions in Washington. Some Republican lawmakers who backed the military campaign have questioned whether a deal that leaves Iran with influence over Hormuz would weaken deterrence and undermine the stated objectives of the war. Others see a ceasefire extension and shipping restart as a practical way to reduce inflationary pressure and limit the danger of a broader regional conflict.

For Gulf states, the priority is restoring predictable trade flows while avoiding a settlement that leaves maritime security vulnerable to renewed disruption. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have strong economic incentives to support a deal, but their interests differ on sanctions, energy competition and future security guarantees.

Israel’s position remains decisive. Trump said his call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went well, but Israel has long opposed arrangements that ease pressure on Tehran without firm limits on Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Any sign that Iran is gaining economic relief without enforceable commitments could trigger resistance from Israeli officials and their allies in Washington.

Energy traders are likely to treat the announcement cautiously until tankers can move safely through the strait and terms are confirmed by all parties. A formal reopening would not immediately erase supply disruptions, because production, shipping schedules, insurance cover and port operations would need to adjust after months of reduced activity.

The next stage of diplomacy will turn on whether the parties can agree on the wording of Hormuz access, the length of the ceasefire extension and the sequence of sanctions relief. Trump has promised an announcement shortly, but Tehran’s insistence on retaining management of the strait shows that the final text remains politically sensitive.