GCC Equity Markets Anticipate 12-13% Returns in 2025 Amid Economic Resilience

Gulf Cooperation Council equity markets are projected to yield returns between 12% and 13% in 2025, according to First Abu Dhabi Bank’s latest Global Investment Outlook report. This optimistic forecast is underpinned by robust economic growth, strategic diversification efforts, and a stable geopolitical climate within the region.

The report highlights that the United Arab Emirates is expected to see its Gross Domestic Product growth accelerate from 4.5% to 5.6% in 2025, surpassing the International Monetary Fund’s global growth projection of 3.2%. This surge is attributed to significant investments in non-oil sectors, including technology, tourism, and renewable energy, as part of the nation’s broader economic diversification strategy.

Similarly, the broader GCC region is anticipated to double its growth rate from 2.1% to 4.2% in 2025. This expansion is driven by strategic initiatives aimed at reducing dependence on oil revenues and fostering sustainable economic development. The FAB report emphasizes that these efforts are positioning the GCC economies to outpace global growth in the coming year.

In the equity markets, an expected earnings growth of 11.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 15.18x are projected to support the anticipated double-digit returns, inclusive of dividends. The petrochemical sector, in particular, is poised for a strong recovery, bolstered by increased global demand and favorable pricing dynamics. Additionally, the financial sector is set to benefit from rising interest rates and enhanced profitability metrics.

Fitch Ratings’ recent analysis aligns with this positive outlook, indicating a stable forecast for GCC corporates in 2025, underpinned by resilient fundamentals. The real estate sector is also expected to experience continued growth, with gross leverage projected to improve to an average of 2x in 2025, down from 2.5x in 2024.

The FAB report further underscores the role of artificial intelligence and technological innovation as pivotal drivers of economic transformation in the GCC. Governments across the region are investing heavily in AI and digital infrastructure, aiming to enhance productivity and create new avenues for economic growth. These technological advancements are expected to contribute significantly to the region’s GDP and attract foreign direct investment.