Allianz: $125 billion in vessel and cargo value awaits passage from the Persian Gulf
- Safety and Shipping Review 2026: Vessel and cargo value in region shows importance of maritime chokepoints. Managing geopolitical disruptions is now a top priority for shipowners and cargo operators.
- Geopolitical tensions challenge shipping’s ongoing long-term safety improvements. Incidents fell 16% to fewer than 3,000 globally in 2025, while fire remains a major loss driver with over 200 incidents, the second highest total in a decade.
- More complex and volatile risk landscape enforces need for greater operational resilience versus cost efficiency.
In addition to geopolitical uncertainty, traditional risks for the shipping industry remain a major concern, although the numbers of total vessel losses and incidents have continued to decline in recent years. Machinery damage or failure and fires are among the main loss drivers in this regard, leading to significant economic and insured losses.
“Our analysis shows the shipping industry has made significant improvements in maritime safety in recent years. However, it has also undergone a fundamental transformation, from decades of relative stability, defined by steady trade flows and largely predictable operating conditions to becoming increasingly complex and volatile. The Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure is just the latest in a series of severe interruptions to hit shipowners and cargo operators. Resilience, geopolitics, and efficiency must be balanced in an increasingly unpredictable world, where the cost of uncertainty is reshaping the shipping industry,” explains Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial.
Geopolitical uncertainty becomes top risk for shipping industry
The conflict in the Middle East paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil trade route. Allianz Research data shows that around 1,150 cargo-carrying vessels (over 100GT*) with an estimated vessel and cargo value of approximately $125 billion, a volume of 29 million GT, and as many as 20,000 seafarers are in the Persian Gulf waiting to resume operations following recent diplomatic breakthroughs. This underscores the structural importance of maritime chokepoints and how critical they are for shipping and international trade, while also highlighting the severe disruptions to vessel operations and mental strain that has been placed on those seafarers who have endured months on board facing the threat of attack.
Marine insurance cover has been available throughout the conflict, albeit at increased hull and cargo premiums. However, the real issue for shipowners has been more about the risk to the crew and the vessel when transiting a conflict zone, rather than pure insurance considerations. Even if the US and Iran agreement holds and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, solid assurances of safe passage will be required, involving the international community, particularly if traffic is to return to its pre-war levels, up to as many as 140 vessels a day.
“We are seeing growing uncertainty around shipping routes. Any type of event – a conflict, pandemic or a grounded vessel blocking a key port or shipping canal – can potentially cause a major disruption to shipping and supply chains. The events in the Middle East have been more impactful than many would have expected. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sets a dangerous precedent and raises questions around the long-term future of this and other critical chokepoints. What is becoming clear is that we have to pay a price for uncertainty, shifting from ‘just-in-time’ to ‘just-in-case’ supply chains, and prioritizing resilience over cost efficiency,” says Captain Rahul Khanna, Global Head of Marine Risk Consulting at Allianz Commercial.
Total loss and incident numbers decline despite industry headwinds
The review’s latest analysis shows that there have been more than 900 total losses reported over the past decade (vessels over 100GT). Between 2016 and the end of 2020, there were 555, an average of 111 per year. This number declined to 350 between 2021 and the end of 2025, an average of 70 (37% down on the previous five-year period), reflecting the positive effect of an increased focus on safety measures over time – 43 total losses have been reported in 2025, with more than 30 of these vessels over 500GT. The South China, Indochina, Indonesia, and the Philippines region is the main loss hotspot globally over the past year, and the past decade (255). A huge volume of imports and exports flow through the region, resulting in high levels of shipping traffic, which is reflected in the number of incidents.
Around the world, the number of shipping incidents declined over the past year by around 16% (2,818 in 2025 compared to 3,353 in 2024). The East Mediterranean and Black Sea region saw the highest number (622), followed by the British Isles (619), which is also the location of the most incidents over the past decade. Machinery damage or failure was the major cause of shipping incidents globally, accounting for over half (1,505), followed by vessel collision (260). Fires on large vessels, including container ships and car carriers, remain a worry. There were more than 200 incidents on large vessels reported during 2025, down from 2024, but still the second highest total over the past decade, with at least nine total losses reported.
The increasing size of vessels is also driving a trend for a rise in general average claims, where the shipowner and cargo interests share losses or expenditure to save the whole venture in an emergency. Such claims are typically complex and large. Contributions to cover losses can be as high as 50% of the cargo value, which if a vessel is carrying a few thousand electric cars, for example, could easily be over US$100mn.
“Insurance markets react quickly to crises, but the real challenge for companies is understanding how risks are interconnected. That’s why resilience and risk management are becoming just as important as insurance coverage. The shipping industry is facing turbulent times, not only from geopolitical instability, but also from traditional hull and machinery risks, where we see claims costs continue to rise, as well as from decarbonization and fleet renewal challenges. Our role as an insurer is to support our clients as both a risk carrier and a resilience partner to mitigate risks before they become a damaging loss event,” says Justus Heinrich, Global Product Leader Marine Hull at Allianz Commercial.
Geopolitics and high demand drive trend for older vessels
The average age of the global fleet increased to 23 years in 2025, up from around 20 years old just before the Covid-19 pandemic, as shipowners retain vessels for longer due to the volatile geopolitical climate. Conflict in the Middle East has seen tankers and container ships stranded and rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, for example, resulting in longer transit times and a squeeze on existing fleet capacity.
Older vessels pose significant safety risks at sea, with vessels over 20 years old accounting for over half of all safety incidents, analysis shows. As ships age, the likelihood of incidents increases due to structural, mechanical, and technological obsolescence, creating risks for crew, cargo, and the environment.
“Shipowners are under pressure to scrap older vessels and replace them with new, more efficient, safer and compliant ships. However, the recent pushback against net zero targets and full order books at the major Asian shipyards are other factors which could ensure the average age of vessels is likely to remain elevated in the near term,” says Captain Nitin Chopra, Senior Marine Risk Consultant, Allianz Commercial.
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About Allianz Commercial
Allianz Commercial is the center of expertise and global line of Allianz Group for insuring mid-sized businesses, large enterprises and specialist risks. Among our customers are the world’s largest consumer brands, financial institutions and industry players, the global aviation and shipping industry as well as family-owned and medium enterprises which are the backbone of the economy. We also cover unique risks such as offshore wind parks, infrastructure projects or film productions. Powered by the employees, financial strength, and network of the world’s #1 insurance brand, we work together to help our customers prepare for what’s ahead: They trust us in providing a wide range of traditional and alternative risk transfer solutions, outstanding risk consulting and Multinational services as well as seamless claims handling. Allianz Commercial brings together the large corporate insurance business of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and the commercial insurance business of national Allianz Property & Casualty entities serving mid-sized companies. We are present in over 200 countries and territories either through our own teams or the Allianz Group network and partners. In 2025, the integrated business of Allianz Commercial generated around €17.3 billion in gross premium globally. https://commercial.allianz.com/
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