Trump Heralds “Done” Trade Deal With China on Rare Earths

Donald Trump has declared on social media that the United States and China have finalised a trade agreement, pending formal sign-off from both himself and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The accord ensures China will supply rare earth minerals and magnets “up front” to the U.S., while the U.S. will honour its commitments, including allowing Chinese students to study at American universities. Trump also highlighted a tariff arrangement favouring the U.S., imposing a total of 55 per cent, against China’s 10 per cent.

Negotiators in London laid the groundwork for this framework during two days of discussions aimed at restoring the Geneva truce first reached in May, which had faltered amid export restrictions on critical minerals. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described the outcome as putting “meat on the bones” of the Geneva agreement by addressing China’s curbs on rare earths and magnets. Both governments intend to present the framework for approval by Trump and Xi.

China controls a significant share of the world’s rare earth minerals, essential for manufacturing electronics, electric vehicles and defence technologies. Export licences recently granted to Chinese firms meeting U.S. demand reinforce China’s commitment to the agreement. The shortage of these minerals had previously disrupted global supply chains and limited U.S. access to critical components.

Alongside rare earth supplies, the agreement addresses educational exchanges by reaffirming that Chinese students will continue to access American universities. Trump emphasised this pledge in his social media announcement. Although the U.S. has criticised visas for students in sensitive fields, the deal appears to restore earlier norms.

Trump presented the tariff structure as a win for American interests: 55 per cent U.S. tariffs versus 10 per cent Chinese tariffs. These adjustments mark a shift from the extreme tariff stances of earlier this year, which had peaked at triple-digit levels.

Stock markets responded cautiously to the news: global indices displayed measured optimism as investors awaited details and official approvals. Analysts warned that markets remain fragile, with movement dependent on implementation and trust between the two nations.

Beijing’s participation was led by Vice Premier He Lifeng and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, who conveyed the deal as a balanced step toward reviving the Geneva pact. The U.S. delegation included Commerce Secretary Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. President Trump and President Xi had previously spoken by telephone on 5 June, building momentum for these discussions.

Despite this progress, experts caution that deep-seated mistrust and unresolved disputes remain. Non‑tariff barriers, such as technology export restrictions and visa policies, continue to loom. Chinese officials emphasised the deal’s provisional nature, awaiting “balanced” steps by both sides.

Analyst Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group observed that while restarting the Geneva truce is a step up from breakdown, achieving a durable U.S.-China trade relationship will require sustained engagement and policy alignment. The role of rare earths as leverage underscores China’s global strategic advantage.

President Trump signalled confidence that approval could occur swiftly: Lutnick suggested sign-off might happen within days, as early as Wednesday or Thursday, after which implementation could begin. However, both governments have set a firm deadline of 10 August to negotiate a broader accord, before tariffs revert to higher levels.

With economic growth at risk from disrupted supply chains and tense trade anomalies, both the White House and Beijing face pressure to deliver tangible results. The World Bank recently warned that heightened tariff uncertainty could drag down global growth to an estimated 2.3 per cent in 2025.

While the deal hasn’t resolved core security‑driven trade issues—such as semiconductor and aviation export controls—it marks a notable thaw in tensions. Trump labelled his relationship with Xi as “excellent”, while both leaders exchanged invitations for state visits, signalling a diplomatic openness that has been absent from U.S.-China relations.