Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, who heads the state-run energy group QatarEnergy and oversees the country’s energy policy, said a prolonged war involving Iran could disrupt shipping and production across the Gulf, leaving exporters with little choice but to suspend deliveries. He cautioned that if the conflict continues to intensify, major producers could declare force majeure on contracts, effectively stopping energy shipments to global markets.
Such an outcome would reverberate far beyond the region. Gulf countries collectively supply a significant share of the world’s oil and natural gas, and a shutdown would quickly strain energy markets already rattled by military strikes, shipping disruptions and damage to key infrastructure.
Al-Kaabi warned that global crude prices could surge to about $150 a barrel if shipments from the region are interrupted, while gas markets could face extreme volatility due to the Gulf’s dominant role in liquefied natural gas exports.
The warning came after Qatar halted production at some natural gas facilities following attacks on energy infrastructure during the wider regional confrontation. Qatar accounts for roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply, making any interruption in output a major shock to energy markets.
Officials said liquefaction operations at key facilities would take time to restart even if the conflict subsides, because LNG plants require careful technical procedures to return to full capacity. Al-Kaabi indicated that restoring the normal cycle of exports could take weeks or months after hostilities end.
Energy analysts say the disruption highlights the vulnerability of global supply chains to geopolitical crises in the Gulf, home to several of the world’s largest oil and gas exporters including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.
A central concern is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage linking the Gulf with the Arabian Sea. The strait carries a substantial share of the world’s seaborne oil and LNG shipments, making it one of the most strategically sensitive energy corridors. Military confrontation in the region has already curtailed shipping traffic and raised insurance costs for tankers.
Retaliatory strikes and military deployments around the waterway have heightened fears that shipping could be blocked entirely if hostilities intensify. Any sustained closure would leave exporters struggling to move crude and gas to global markets.
Energy traders and economists warn that such a scenario would likely trigger a cascade of economic effects. Higher oil and gas prices would push up inflation worldwide, raise production costs for industry and increase energy bills for households. Transport, manufacturing and aviation sectors would face the most immediate pressure from rising fuel costs.
Financial markets have already reacted nervously to the prospect of supply disruptions. Oil prices have climbed sharply amid the escalating crisis, while equity markets in Europe and North America have shown signs of volatility as investors assess the economic impact of prolonged instability in the Middle East.
The potential shutdown of Gulf exports would represent one of the most significant energy disruptions since the early 1970s oil embargo or the supply shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Unlike previous crises, the present situation involves both oil and LNG markets, which have become increasingly interconnected as countries shift towards gas for electricity generation and industrial use.
Qatar has built a reputation over decades as a stable and reliable LNG supplier, exporting to Europe and Asia through long-term contracts. The current disruption has shaken that perception, forcing buyers to explore alternative supplies and pushing up spot prices for cargoes.
Industry specialists say spare global LNG capacity is limited, leaving little buffer if Gulf exports remain offline for an extended period. Producers in the United States and Australia may increase shipments, but logistical and contractual constraints limit how quickly additional volumes can reach buyers.
The situation also poses risks for large energy investment projects across the region. QatarEnergy’s multibillion-dollar expansion of the North Field gas development, one of the largest LNG growth projects in the world, faces delays if the conflict persists and disrupts construction and shipping routes.
Governments across Europe and Asia are closely monitoring the crisis because of their heavy dependence on Gulf supplies. Several countries have already begun reviewing strategic energy reserves and contingency plans for potential shortages.
Market observers say the warning from Doha underscores how rapidly geopolitical conflict can transform energy security calculations. A prolonged disruption in the Gulf would not only tighten global supplies but also accelerate debates over diversification of energy sources and shipping routes.
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