Houthi attacks squeeze Red Sea shipping flows

Ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait dropped to its lowest level in months after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities intensified security concerns across two of the world’s most important energy corridors.

Only 11 vessels carrying commodities passed through the narrow waterway on Sunday, reflecting a sharp retreat by shipowners and charterers assessing the threat to tankers linked to Saudi Arabia. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also remained severely restricted over the weekend despite a pause in direct hostilities between the United States and Iran.

Seven oil tankers crossed Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea. Three entered the Red Sea, including two very large crude carriers travelling towards Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s principal oil-exporting terminal on its western coast. Another tanker was linked to Russian trade.

Four vessels sailed southwards out of the Red Sea carrying Saudi, Emirati and Russian crude towards buyers in Asia. The movements included a large tanker transporting about two million barrels, highlighting the limited number of operators still prepared to navigate waters exposed to missile, drone and maritime attacks.

The Houthis have sought to obstruct Saudi exports after expanding their involvement in the conflict between Washington and Tehran. The Yemen-based movement has threatened vessels associated with Saudi Arabia and attacked energy installations along the kingdom’s Red Sea coastline.

The campaign has raised the possibility of simultaneous disruption at Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz. Together, the two straits form critical gateways for oil, liquefied natural gas, refined fuels and other commodities moving between Gulf producers, Europe and Asia.

Saudi Arabia had increasingly relied on Yanbu as an alternative export point after traffic through Hormuz collapsed. Crude can be transported from fields in the east through the kingdom’s East-West pipeline before being loaded at Red Sea ports, allowing some supplies to bypass Hormuz.

That strategy is now under pressure because tankers leaving Yanbu must travel through Bab el-Mandeb to reach Asian markets by the shortest route. Ships avoiding the strait would need to sail north through the Suez Canal for some destinations or undertake longer voyages around Africa, depending on their origin, cargo and destination.

The disruption is increasing journey times, fuel consumption, chartering costs and insurance premiums. War-risk cover has become more expensive as underwriters reassess the possibility of damage to vessels, crews and cargoes near Yemen and Saudi Arabia’s western shoreline.

Hormuz traffic, meanwhile, stayed below normal levels over the weekend. Daily crossings were generally in single figures, far below the roughly 40 to 45 passages recorded during ordinary operating conditions. Several vessels switched off their automatic identification transponders while travelling through the area, making confirmed traffic totals harder to establish.

Cargoes that continued moving through Hormuz included oil and refined products from Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. No liquefied natural gas carrier has made a confirmed passage through the strait since July 11, deepening concern over supplies from Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters.

The reduction in maritime activity has persisted even as diplomatic efforts produced a temporary lull in attacks between the United States and Iran. Shipowners remain reluctant to commit vessels without stronger assurances that the pause will hold and that naval protection can reduce the risk of interception or attack.

Saudi-led forces have introduced measures intended to protect commercial vessels using Bab el-Mandeb. However, the Houthis retain access to missiles, armed drones and explosive-laden boats that can threaten ships from positions along Yemen’s western coast.

The renewed confrontation also risks destabilising Yemen’s fragile truce. Large-scale fighting between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition subsided after a United Nations-mediated ceasefire in 2022, although no comprehensive political settlement followed.

Cross-border strikes and naval threats have now revived fears of a broader conflict. Yemen’s internationally recognised authorities have accused the Houthis of attempting to reproduce Iran’s leverage over Hormuz by establishing similar control over the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

March flows through Bab el-Mandeb had approached four million barrels of crude a day as Saudi Arabia redirected more exports through Yanbu. That increase made the waterway more important to global energy supply, particularly as Gulf producers sought routes that avoided Hormuz.