The UN weather agency said El Niño is now firmly established across the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen into a very strong event before peaking towards the end of 2026. Forecasts from WMO global prediction centres show a nearly 100 per cent likelihood that the climate pattern will persist through February 2027, an unusually high level of certainty.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the current trajectory could produce an event stronger than anything recorded since systematic WMO monitoring began about four decades ago. She said exceptionally warm waters both at and below the Pacific surface were providing a large reservoir of heat capable of sustaining further intensification.
Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region, a key monitoring zone in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, averaged about 1.5C above normal during May to July and reached about 2C above normal in July. Weekly values later climbed to roughly 2.2C to 2.6C above average between late July and mid-August.
Below the surface, conditions are even more unusual. WMO said subsurface ocean temperatures in some areas were more than 8C above average during July and early August, reinforcing forecasts that the event will continue strengthening during the final months of the year.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the intensifying episode was unfolding alongside rising global temperatures and unusually warm seas, warning that communities were entering a “danger zone” of heightened extreme-weather risk. He called for accelerated climate action and stronger protection for populations exposed to weather disasters.
The agency cautioned, however, that the intensity of El Niño does not determine the scale of damage in every country. Effects vary by season and location and can be altered by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans.
For September to November, WMO forecasts show an increased probability of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas. Rainfall projections display a strong El Niño pattern, with wetter-than-normal conditions likely in some regions and heightened drought risk in others.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to develop during the September-November season, with WMO forecasting a seasonal mean value of about 0.9C. The phenomenon, involving warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean and cooler conditions farther east, can amplify or modify El Niño-related rainfall patterns around the Indian Ocean basin.
The organisation has stepped up coordination with national meteorological and hydrological services, humanitarian agencies and other UN bodies to improve early warnings and preparedness. Agriculture, health, energy, transport, water management, fisheries and disaster response are among sectors considered vulnerable to disruptions from a very strong event.
WMO said a strong El Niño can have consequences because shifts in rainfall and temperature can affect harvests, food prices, electricity demand, water supplies and disease patterns. It stressed that seasonal forecasts provide governments with a window to prepare, rather than a precise prediction of storms, heatwaves or floods.
The agency’s assessment reflects an escalation from forecasts issued earlier this year. In June, WMO estimated an 80 per cent probability of El Niño developing during June to August, rising to around 90 per cent later in 2026. By July, the phenomenon had developed and was forecast to strengthen rapidly, while an update at the end of that month described a strong event intensifying. The September assessment is therefore the clearest indication that the Pacific warming episode is moving towards an exceptional level.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a naturally occurring cycle involving changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation. It can raise average global temperatures temporarily while shifting rainfall belts and storm patterns across large parts of the world.
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