By Sushil Kutty
Quite likely newly appointed UPCC Chief Ajay Rai was appointed with the diktat he made sure Rahul Gandhi won the 2024 general elections from his old pocket-borough Amethi, which is currently represented by Union Minority Affairs Minister Smriti Irani who had defeated Rahul Gandhi in 2019 with more than 55000 votes to spare. A contest in 2024, therefore, cannot be left to chance – victory at all costs and Rai is like confidence personified.
That said, there is more to it than just a grudge fight. Rahul Gandhi is a transformed man from the one who fought Irani in 2019. The 2022 Bharat Jodo Yatra made all the difference. Ajai Rai announced what was already in the pipeline: The Congress hasn’t declared it outright but Rahul Gandhi is the ‘PM face’ of the Congress and Amethi-Raebareli belt has been rustic “PM-producing country” for a long time, at least for the Gandhi family.
From first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, they all came to Parliament via a constituency in Uttar Pradesh. Even non-Gandhi Prime Ministers have taken the UP route. It is imperative, therefore, for Rahul Gandhi to contest from Uttar Pradesh. Amethi is logical and politically-consistent because Rahul Gandhi’s Prime Minister-father Rajiv Gandhi contested and won from Amethi.
Even his mother Sonia Gandhi was MP of Amethi. True, Amethi dumped Rahul Gandhi and Wayanad saved his goose, but Amethi elects Gandhi family prime ministers and the people know this, the electorate of Amethi, especially. Naming Rahul Gandhi ‘PM face’ of I.N.D.I.A will 100 percent guarantee Smriti Irani loses, who otherwise will be difficult to beat. Fact is, which constituency does not want a “Prime Minister for an MP”? Besides, Amethi’s voters had a PM for an MP – Rajiv Gandhi. And nostalgia does wonders to how people vote.
As it is, 2024 is increasingly looking like a crowded place for the BJP. That being said, the high-profile Amethi constituency will not be just for the taking. Irani was not sitting on her thumbs doing nothing for the constituency of which Rahul Gandhi was MP in 2004, 2009 and 2014. Rahul Gandhi lost in 2019 because Irani successfully sold the premise that she was a better bet for Amethi than the 2014-2019 “failed incumbent”.
Five years on, things have vastly changed without Smriti Irani having to do anything except watch the Bharat Jodo Yatra make its progress south to north. The entire works, so to speak. Also, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has worked himself into a corner. And Gandhi has turned out to be a highly credible challenger; some would even say “incredible challenger”. More importantly, Modi and the BJP understand and fear this change in the political environment, and in the man – the re-creation of Rahul Gandhi.
The result of the Karnataka assembly elections was proof the wind was finally blowing the Congress way. Since then, despite hiccups, opposition parties have come to an understanding and unity isn’t as elusive as it looked like before the Bharat Jodo Yatra. The next natural step – political progression – was for the Congress to move Rahul Gandhi to the Gandhi family pocket-borough and reclaim Amethi.
Of course, Wayanad need not feel let down or lowdown if Rahul Gandhi contests from Amethi in 2024. “Rahul Gandhi will contest from Amethi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections,” said Ajay Rai at a time when Smriti Irani has been craving for competition. Without Rahul Gandhi in the fray, Smriti Irani cannot court the same grandeur which she is able to when pitted against the Gandhi scion. Does not matter if Irani’s mentor and ‘Boss’ Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be on tenterhooks throughout 2023, fearing for his prodigy who is one of his eternal favourites.
Amethi is a familiar battleground for Rahul Gandhi and is also a Congress stronghold even today. Smriti Irani’s fate will depend a great deal on how people perceive Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s rule as also Irani’s performance of five years. Rahul Gandhi has the advantage of casting himself as the challenger to Modi. Certainly, the entire Who’s Who of the BJP will be campaigning for Irani, but the Congress has the chance to pitch the “PM face” of I.N.D.I.A against just another also-ran.
The reality is, Ajay Rai said it and the world took notice. The Congress cannot back out now. That will mark both party and candidate “coward” and the BJP will be back to bragging, casting taunts of “Pappu Darr Gaya”. The Congress shouldn’t make the mistake of retracting from Rai’s assertion. No matter what, Rahul Gandhi must contest both Wayanad and Amethi and unlike James Bond shake up the world, not merely create a stir. Perfect. (IPA Service)
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