The warning from the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company places one of the Gulf’s most influential energy producers among the more cautious voices in the industry. It also underlines the scale of damage done to global oil trade by the near-closure of the world’s most important crude transit route, which handled roughly a fifth of internationally traded oil before the conflict sharply curtailed shipping.
The Strait of Hormuz, linking the Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, has become the central pressure point in a wider crisis affecting crude, refined products, liquefied natural gas, freight, insurance and inflation. Restrictions on tanker movement, security screening, elevated war-risk premiums and damage to energy infrastructure have combined to keep large volumes of supply away from global markets, despite emergency measures by producers and consuming nations.
Al Jaber’s assessment points to a recovery shaped not only by the end of hostilities but also by the practical challenge of restoring confidence among shipowners, insurers, charterers and buyers. Tanker operators are unlikely to resume normal sailings until maritime security conditions, port access, payment channels and cargo insurance are stabilised. Even a formal ceasefire would not immediately reverse months of disruption across shipping schedules, refinery procurement, storage flows and contractual delivery chains.
The disruption has removed millions of barrels a day from normal trade patterns and forced refiners in Asia and Europe to compete for alternative grades from outside the Gulf. Brent crude has traded at elevated levels as markets weigh the prospect of prolonged supply losses against the possibility of a negotiated settlement. Volatility has also widened the gap between available crude grades, raised shipping costs and complicated planning for airlines, petrochemical producers and heavy industries.
The UAE has been better positioned than several Gulf producers because of its export infrastructure at Fujairah, outside the Strait of Hormuz. Abu Dhabi has long invested in pipeline capacity that allows part of its crude exports to bypass the chokepoint. A new pipeline project intended to expand that route is about halfway complete and is being accelerated for operation in 2027, a move that would strengthen the country’s ability to ship crude even if regional maritime tensions persist.
That infrastructure, however, cannot by itself replace the lost capacity of the broader Gulf system. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar remain exposed to the same maritime constraint to varying degrees, while LNG flows from Qatar have faced particular scrutiny because of the limited alternatives available for gas cargoes. Asian economies that depend heavily on Gulf energy supplies have been among the most vulnerable to price spikes and delivery uncertainty.
The crisis has also revived debate over strategic reserves and energy security. Several governments have released stocks, adjusted fuel taxes or subsidised vulnerable sectors to contain the impact on households and businesses. Those measures have softened the initial shock but cannot fully compensate for a prolonged disruption in one of the world’s most concentrated energy corridors. Industrial buyers are now seeking longer-term supply diversification, including more crude from the Atlantic Basin, higher use of stored fuel, and renewed interest in nuclear, renewables and domestic refining resilience.
For oil producers, the longer recovery timeline creates a complicated balance. Higher prices support revenue for exporters able to maintain shipments, but output constraints and lost cargoes reduce earnings for states whose production is shut in or stranded. Investment decisions are also becoming more difficult as companies try to judge whether the Hormuz disruption is a temporary crisis or the start of a structural reordering of energy routes.
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