That shift does not amount to a reopening. Iran told the United Nations Security Council and the International Maritime Organization on March 24 that “non-hostile vessels” could pass if they coordinated with its authorities, a position that formalised what has become a selective access regime after the conflict that began on February 28 all but halted the flow of roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas through the strait. Reuters reported that most tankers still cannot move safely, even as a trickle of approved ships has started to emerge.
The pattern points to a blockade shaped less by a blanket closure than by political filtering. Iran’s foreign minister said passage had been permitted for “friendly nations” including China, Russia, India, Iraq and Pakistan. Lloyd’s List reported that nearly all trackable movements through Hormuz after mid-March were tied to Iran through ownership, trade links or approval, while Windward said six AIS-transmitting vessels crossed on March 31 under what it described as Iran’s controlled transit system, with additional dark movements likely outside public view.
India has been among the clearest beneficiaries of that limited access. Reuters reported on March 28 that two India-bound LPG tankers, BW Elm and BW Tyr, were crossing the eastern side of Hormuz after Tehran opened the waterway to non-hostile vessels. Before that, four other tankers had already moved out, and by March 31 Reuters had detailed how the Indian-flagged LPG tanker Pine Gas escaped via a narrow route north of Larak Island after weeks of delay, following guidance from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and escort support from the Indian Navy once the vessel reached the Gulf of Oman.
The Pine Gas episode underlined how abnormal navigation through the strait has become. Reuters said the vessel was directed away from the standard lane because the regular passage was mined, and that every crew member had to agree before the voyage proceeded. The tanker was carrying 45,000 metric tonnes of LPG and had originally been bound for Mangalore, but authorities redirected the cargo to Visakhapatnam and Haldia as supply concerns mounted. Even after that crossing, 18 Indian-flagged ships carrying about 485 seafarers remained trapped inside the Gulf.
China’s experience has shown that approval on paper does not always translate into a clear run at sea. Two Hong Kong-flagged container ships, CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean, attempted to exit the Gulf on March 27, broadcasting messages on their AIS systems identifying Chinese owners and crews, but turned back shortly after beginning the passage. Kpler analyst Rebecca Gerdes said the failed attempt showed safe passage could not be guaranteed, despite Tehran’s public assurances. A Wall Street Journal update said the same two ships later completed the crossing on March 31, illustrating both the uncertainty and the stop-start nature of movement through the waterway.
Markets have treated the modest increase in approved transits as operational relief rather than strategic resolution. Reuters columnist Clyde Russell wrote that Hormuz remains in the second-worst possible scenario for energy markets, with only a handful of vessels having passed during March and around 12 million barrels a day of crude and refined products effectively removed from normal flows even after mitigation through Red Sea and Fujairah routes. A Reuters survey published on March 31 showed OPEC output dropping sharply in March as the war and shipping disruption forced export cuts, while oil price forecasts were revised dramatically higher.
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