With a sankalp (pledge) at KV temple of Varanasi to get rid of the anti-people government of the BJP, the Uttar Pradesh Congress will launch its UP Jodo Yatra on December 20 from Shakumbhari Devi temple in Saharanpur and culminate at Naimisharanya (Sitapur) after covering 16 parliamentary constituencies in 10 western and central districts of UP over 25 days.
Apparently the Yatra is a Congress show, but besides Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and party leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra senior opposition leaders, chief minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, Deputy CM of Bihar Tejashvi Yadav and many senior opposition leaders would participate.
Taking the lessons from its miserable defeat in just concluded assembly elections in three Hindi speaking states, the Congress leadership is treading cautiously. Just after the December 19 meet of INDIA this yatra would be the significant move to motivate the INDIA bloc leaders and make them participate in a public show.
With the RSS taking command of the electoral management and chalking out the strategy, it has acquired thrilling urgency for the Congress to bring together INDIA constituents and challenge the RSS design. However, RSS has already completed half of its electoral exercise. No doubt BJP and Narendra Modi would be the public face of the saffron political ecosystem, the main battle of ballot would be fought by the RSS.
The resolve of the RSS to keep its strong grip on the electoral mechanism of the BJP is clearly manifest in its plan to install its three trusted cadres as the chief ministers of these states, notwithstanding public boast of Modi to pilot the BJP to victory in these states. For obvious political compulsions the RSS leadership may not like to sideline Modi the individual, but it will not allow him to meddle with the electoral strategies and preparations.
Though Modi’s Bhakts and a section of the BJP leaders credit him with the change of guards in these states, the claims are far from the truth. It would be naïve to believe that Vasundhara Raje would have bowed before Modi. It was the wish of the RSS to nominate Bhajan Lal Sharma as the chief minister of Rajasthan, sent to her through Rajnath Singh that made her relent of course temporarily.
Though Modi and Amit Shah are supposed to be the strategists for the party in UP and have apparently been interacting with the state leaders, it is RSS leadership which who have been issuing directions and formulating the policies and programmes. While chief minister Yogi Adityanath is not an RSS cadre, the Sangh leadership is not willing to wreck his boat.
To eradicate anti-incumbency threat the RSS has undertaken the task of reshuffling and changing the office bearers of district units. Since the presidents of the district units have to directly interact with the district and village level people, the RSS leadership hopes that the new faces should efficiently succeed in convincing the voters. With this in view state RSS unit has effected changes in 71% of the district units and has also put in place booth level committees with the responsibility to bring out the voters from their house and reach them to the polling stations.
Western Uttar Pradesh has been the primary target of the RSS. Incidentally the RSS after the Muzaffarnagar riot of 2013 had acquired a strong base in the region. Nearly 50 people died in the Hindu-Muslim clashes which erupted on 7 September in India’s town of Muzaffarnagar. The riots have been described as the worst in India in a decade. Tens of thousands of people fled their homes in the violence.
But in the wake of the recent farmers’ agitation the political scenario and equation has changed in the region. The Jats who had carried out menacing assault on the Muslims have overcome the element of disbelieve and are now having nice entente with the Muslims. The Jats have severed their relationship with BJP. Bad news for BJP has been large section of the Hindu farmers turning their backs to BJP. Most of the 800 farmers who died during the farmers’ movement belonged to the west region of the state.
It is this element of Hindu alienation from BJP that has prompted the Congress to concentrate the UP Jodo Yatra in western UP. With an eye on the 2024 general elections, the SP, BSP, and Congress have stepped up efforts to woo the Muslim votes. But Akhilesh abusing the Congress and describing it as betrayers, the Muslims find themselves standing at cross road. But at the same time they are not willing to go with Akhilesh as they have not the ill treatment meted out by Akhilesh to their leader and founder of SP Azam Khan, incidentally the comrade in arms of Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Nonetheless they may prefer to follow the nation’s mood and rally behind Congress. But this is certainly not going to be an easy affair. Rahul has to make them believe what he says and repose their trust in him. Priyanka Gandhi has been a regular visitor to UP, and has succeeded to arouse sympathy for her amongst the women of the state, but this is not enough to defeat the RSS.
Congress can defeat BJP, but for winning the Lok Sabha seats from the state it has to defeat the psychological war launched by RSS surrounding Hindutva. However the manner in which the Congress is going ahead with its electoral preparation in the state does not enthuse much. Though spirit of Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra has percolated down to the village level in the states through it travelled, it could not fire the imagination of the common people, OBC, DBC and Dalits in UP. Otherwise too Rahul has so far not taken the initiative to reach out to the rural people at the village level.
Caste has been the decisive factor in the state, but the Congress leadership has failed to reach out to the local caste satraps. Uttar Pradesh has 17 reserved Lok Sabha seats, with the Dalit vote bank holding sway on majority of them. But the fact of matter is neither Samajwadi leader Akhilesh nor the Congress has penetrated to this population at the village level. It is not yet clear how the magic of dalit chief of Congress Mallikarjun Kharge would motivate the Dalits.
In the 2024 elections winning the confidence of Dalits voters, who are gradually shifting away from Mayawati and the BSP, has been primary mission of the opposition parties. Mayawati has lost her charisma and appeal. Muslims are also shifting away after she sacked she sacked party MP Danish Ali for standing by Mahua Moitra, TMC MP, in her crusade against Adani. While sacking Ali has alienated the Muslims from her, it sent a strong message that she has been working like “B” team of BJP. Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, all major political players are eying the BSP’s Dalit vote bank which is around 22 per cent of the total population. The BSP is facing an existential crisis in UP. where it was a formidable force. It has only one seat and a 12.88% vote share.
During last seven years, after Yogi coming to power, BJP has won over a number of dalit leaders from Samajwadi Party and BSP. In recent months Akhilesh is actively engaged in connecting with Dalit voters through his slogan of “PDA” (Pichde, Dalit and Alpasankhyak). But it does not appear to work. Dalits are sceptical of the Yadav dominance. Dalit leaders feel that they are not acceptable either in Samajwadi Party or BJP. They are simply showcased.
The problem with the Congress has been it is torn between the confusion to ally with whom; whether with the upper castes or the Dalits. The two have acute antagonistic relations. It is also confused about having understanding with various small dalit oriented parties formed by local dalit leaders. Sources say that young fire brand dalit leader Chandra Shekhar Azad Ravan desires to be a constituent of INDIA and contest the Lok Sabha election. But the Congress is yet to make up its mind.
One thing is absolutely clear the legacy of Kanshi Ram is on for grab. All the parties are striving to identify with him and his ideology. On October 9, the Congress launched a ‘Dalit Gaurav Yatra’ centering around his ideals. The SP has been holding ‘Samvidhan Bachao Jan Chaupals’, invoking both Babasaheb Ambedkar and Kanshi Ram. The competition has turned intense with RSS, the expert in appropriating the national political stalwarts and legends, leaving all the competitors.
Akhilesh only this Wednesday indicated that his party it will contest 65 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2024. This would mean that only 15 seats be left for other constituents of INDIA. Samajwadi Party is the biggest party in the state with 35% vote share in the recent assembly elections and is also a part of the INDIA alliance. It is a misnomer that Modi’s charisma had helped the BJP won 63 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 election. The truth is Pulwama massacre of soldiers worked wonder for Modi and BJP. Had Pulwama not occurred the BJP would have met with worst defeat. Crediting Modi for win in the three states, the analysts often ignore the role played by the RSS in these states. If Modi was really the decisive factor he would not have allowed the RSS to make RSS cadres the chief ministers of these states. (IPA Service)
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