IMF Lowers Saudi Arabia’s 2025 Growth Forecast Amid Extended OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for Saudi Arabia downward to 3.3%, attributing this adjustment primarily to the extension of oil production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

This revision marks a significant decrease from the IMF’s earlier forecast of 4.6% growth for the same period. The 2024 growth estimate has also been lowered to 1.4%. These adjustments have influenced the broader economic outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia region, with the IMF now anticipating a growth rate of 3.6% in 2025, down from the 3.9% projected in October.

The downward revision is largely due to the decision by OPEC+ to extend oil production cuts. In December, the alliance, which includes Saudi Arabia, postponed the commencement of output increases by three months to April 2025 and further extended the full unwinding of cuts, citing concerns over weak demand and rising production from non-OPEC+ countries.

Despite the anticipated slowdown in oil sector growth, Saudi Arabia is actively pursuing its Vision 2030 initiative, aimed at diversifying the economy and reducing dependence on oil revenues. The non-oil sector has shown resilience, with projections indicating growth rates exceeding 4% in both 2024 and 2025. This expansion is supported by substantial investments in large-scale projects, including NEOM and the Red Sea developments.

The IMF also forecasts a 2.6% decline in energy commodity prices for 2025, a more significant drop than previously expected. This projection reflects the complex dynamics of global oil markets, where production decisions by major exporters like Saudi Arabia play a crucial role in influencing prices.