When the rats scramble to escape a sinking ship as hungry sharks circle the blood red water, the end is near. 100 insider Johnnies sold $6.5 billion in OpenAI shares in a recent employee tender. Why bailout now at $500 billion if OpenAI is a slam dunk for a trillion dollar IPO next year? Simple. The 100 newly minted decamillionaires know that OpenAI can no longer hope for a trillion dollar exit. Its business model is toast now that Gemini 3 and dirt cheap Chinese LLM models have dethroned it as the King of the global AI ecosystem. OpenAI will be lucky if it commands a valuation of $50 billion when the meltdown du jour peaks sometime in the fall of 2026.
OpenAI’s birth in November 2022 triggered the trillion dollar AI mania trade that took my beloved Nvidia from a pre-split price of 10 to 190 now. OpenAIs death rattle next year will eviscerate the AI mania and teach us once again that Spike Lee was dead right. Don’t believe the hype – even if she gotta have it.
A close friend waxed rhapsodic to me about his prediction for a $4 trillion OpenAI IPO in 2027. My response? This IPO will not happen, let alone ever command a $4 trillion val since humpty-dumpty has had a great fall and now not all of King Sam’s horses and all of King Sam’s men can put the Humpster dumpster together again.
The stock market verdict is crystal clear to me even if OpenAI bulls at a recent dinner party hissed bile at me for being the party pooper to their AI Champagne wishes and Caviar dreams. Can this puppy support $1.3 trillion in spending with a mere revenues of $12 billion this year? If you believe this bull merde, contact me as I have a very special bridge to sell to you.
This is Dutch tulip mania all over again four centuries after Rembrandt and is not exactly a compliment to humankind’s rationality calculus or Wall Street’s latest spasm of collective greed. The plunge in Microsoft shares from 558 to 480 and SoftBank’s latest kamikaze death dive in Tokyo just tell me that Satya and Masa-san have been thrown off the bus by Mr. Market as a proxy for shorting OpenAI.
Oracle’s free fall from a 310 hero in September to a 220-zero now even as its 5-year credit default swaps spike higher like a Third World banana republic facing a run on its central bank hard currency reserves.
OpenAI’s lack of profitability is so acute that Sam Altman has been reduced to exploring erotica as an avenue for revenue generation – T&A in the absence of M&A. Sad. Exponential growth models have degenerated from the sublime to farcical.
Alphabet has now toppled OpenAI as King Zeus, the god of gods on Mount Olympus in history’s greatest algorithmic coup d’état. Bad news Sirji!
There is at least another 30% downside juice in both Mr. Softy and SoftBank, who own 28% and 11% of Sam Altman’s haunted house. So, don’t worry, be happy, stay shorty. SoftBank not only wiped out $60 billion from the $100 billion petrodollar kitty GCC sovereign wealth funds gave to Masa-san for his Indian paanwalla team in London to invest in Silicon Valley startups but also whacked his own shareholder net worth by 99% in both the 2000 and 2007 Tokyo Tech wrecks. If not for his stake in Alibaba, Masa-san would be roaming with the spirits of the Samurai on the mist-shrouded peak of our sacred Mount Fuji. He is not about investing. He is about playing the Valley equivalent of Russian roulette.
History will once again ambush Wall Street and Silicon Valley. The trillion dollar Ponzi schemes and circular debt pyramids OpenAI inspired in its spider’s web of deceit and leverage has now come undone. You really cannot fool all the people all the time, even if your audience includes some of the richest fools in human history.
GPT-5’s birth in August was OpenAI’s Stalingrad, the beginning of the end that will be played out in a death dive in the next 12-18 months. Investors in the GCC with 90% drawdowns will count themselves lucky since Wall Street always leaves its heavy hitter sucker clients with enough chump change to be able to afford a Big Mac happy meal.
Alphabet, with Google Cloud, Android, Chrome Browser, YouTube, the Tesor Partnerships with Broadcom, $100 billion in the bank and above all with its Gemini 3 wonder weapon is OpenAI’s nemesis, it’s Darth Vader and deranged Godzilla. Sam Altman can huff and puff all he wants but his house of cards is as doomed as a do do bird.
As users gravitate from OpenAI to Gemini 3, the credit risk on Oracle’s fantasy deal will become unbearable and OpenAI’s valuation will be gutted in internet speed faster than its reputation. Why else have shares of Lumentum, maker of optical components for Sundar Pichai’s mega data center networks, more than tripled while OpenAI’s partner shares drown in their own capital markets doo doo. It is the same story with Celestica, another triple bagger on Nasdaq in the Class of 2025, thanks to Sundar.
Broadcom, which spins TPU code into gold like Rumplestiltskin, is up a stellar 70% at a time when the Comp is up 21%. The root of the English word credit is a Latin verb credere – to believe. Without belief, there is no credit and I no longer believe in OpenAI or the monstrous hype of the AI trade. The end game? A 90% valuation cancer as risk morphs into ruin and radioactive chickens come home to roost in the AI Black Death.
Also published on Medium.
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