Matein Khalid Any macro crystal-ball gazer must learn to swallow crushed glass – this is a lesson I learned the hard way on Wall Street. My strongest prediction is that the diesel shock I outlined in my previous AGBI column will reshape the political and economic destiny of our world this winter. Diesel has now risen to $6.50 a gallon, and the crack spread is a lethal […]
Matein Khalid I never thought a routine telegraphed 0.25% a rate hike at a FOMC conclave would make September 16, 2026 one of the scariest days in my investing career, right up there with September 15, 2008 (the Tuesday Lehman died), September 11, 2001 the day the WTC Feng Shui twin sentinels of Manhattan died or Black Wednesday September 15 1992, when my Magyar idol George Soros […]
Matein Khalid So far, 2026 has been the best of all possible worlds for US money centre bank shares and Wall Street brokers, a Panglossian season of peak profits and blowout capital markets revenue growth. While software, memory and AI infrastructure stocks took a bungee jump on the Nasdaq in July, the major banks benefited from the SpaceX mega IPO, which generated a $500 million fee jackpot for […]
Matein Khalid I feel as if I am no longer skating on thin ice with the AI bubble on Nasdaq but now tiptoeing on a minefield that could well explode at any moment under my feet. Why this premonition of imminent disaster? It is clear that Iran is going to humiliate President Trump and not do any kind of a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz […]
Matein Khalid The last four years were a succession of black swans that could have easily derailed the bull market on Wall Street but did not though the short term corrections on Nasdaq were both savage in their intensity. These black swans include the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Powell’s U-turn from “inflation is transitory” to the swiftest, most brutal Fed interest rate tightening policy since Paul Volcker, […]
Matein Khalid Five days of continuous Israeli and US bombing of Iran, the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei and at least five dozen other senior military and political leaders of the Islamic Republic, the de facto closure of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery and the world’s biggest LNG complex in Qatar, as well as retaliatory drone and missile attacks by Iran on airports, seaports, […]
Matein Khalid My very best wishes to my friends and readers for a wonderful Christmas break and may the New Year bring the world the peace the human race so richly deserves. I will be in Alex/Cairo to revisit and pay my homage to the genius of Pharonic antiquity supplemented by the Ptolemaic, Roman, Byzantine, Umayyad, Fatimid, Seljuk, Mamluk, Ottoman, French, British and even Soviet brutalist influences […]
Matein Khalid 2025 was the year I was convinced that silver would outperform gold in a classic late cycle acceleration trade that is a recurrent theme in full throttle precious metal bull markets. This means, silver has a tendency to lag gold’s ascent until an inflection point at which prices breakout and then accelerate sharply on the upside. This inflection point was $36 an ounce in spot […]
Matein Khalid India’s NSE Nifty scaled a milestone on Dalal Street this morning, rising 160 points as I write to 26205. This has little to do with Nvidia/Jensen Huang’s fabulous guidance last night and everything to do with global fund managers attracted Asia’s Cinderella EM of 2025 by the BJP’s supply side policy pivot to slash the GST, ramp up post-Bihar election capex, boost consumption even as […]
Matein Khalid Jay Powell has put cold water on a December FOMC rate cut as inflation risk triggers dissent at the Fed. Yet Uncle Jay is now a lame duck and the world awaits his first MAGA Fed Chairman. My bet is on Kevin H as I doubt if even a supine Senate will confirm yes man – Stephen Miran. Why even bother to hold the FOMC […]
Matein Khalid Stock exchange folklore in pre-1929 Jazz Age New York has one priceless insight for me – “you be buying when they are crying, you be selling when they are yelling”. So as I scan the markets, I realized that the mother of all yelling is taking place in the AI arena and its decibel count is loudest where the ignorance about its nuances is the […]
Michael Brown Political instability in France, and a surprise in Japan’s LDP leadership election made for a spicy start to the week yesterday, though stocks rallied regardless. Today, a barren docket awaits, as participants continue to headline-watch. A penny for the thoughts of G4 central bankers right now, as none of them appear to have particularly easy jobs. First, Fed Chair Powell, who recently resumed the journey […]
Matein Khalid I go into purdah for Wednesday’s FOMC D-Day secure in the knowledge, based on CME futures probability that the most important central bank in the world will cut its overnight borrowing policy rate by at least 25 basis points on Wednesday. Yet there are also “known unknowns” with the Fed’s decision that will haunt and reshape the financial markets as well as America’s toxic politics […]
Matein Khalid Gold’s 38% surge in 2025 to as high as 3570 an ounce in the New York spot market is not just about central bank anti-dollar reserve accumulation, expectations of a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC or inflation/deficit angst but also a very rational response to President Trump’s repeated assaults on the political independence of the Federal Reserve, which raises the likelihood of deliberate […]
Matein Khalid It is now all but certain that the Federal Reserve will cut the US overnight borrowing rate, currently 4.25 percent, by at least 25 basis points at its September 18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The labour market is losing momentum, while tariff-driven inflation has yet to show up in the Consumer Price Index. The Trump White House has ramped up pressure on Fed Chair […]
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach Newswire – 8 August 2025 – Octa Broker is providing an in-depth overview of the week’s key events and actionable insights to help traders navigate this high-stakes environment with confidence. July was a relatively quiet month for gold, at least by the recent standards. XAUUSD, the primary financial instrument for trading bullion, fluctuated in a very narrow 30-dollar range between roughly […]
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach Newswire – 16 June 2025 – This week is set to be a pivotal one for financial markets in general and Forex market in particular as four major central banks—the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the Bank of England (BoE)—are scheduled to announce their latest decisions on interest rates. Their policy […]
Matein Khalid I have had a neurological soft corner for Wall Street’s alternative asset manager stocks ever since I resisted the come hither importunings of multiple Morgan Stanley (MS) managing directors before the firm sold its private wealth division in the DIFC to Credit Suisse. Everyone of these MS honchos wanted me to subscribe to the Blackstone IPO in the summer of 2007 at $32. They assured […]
Matein Khalid My macro crystal ball begins to vibrate ominously whenever a perma-bull talking head joins the Squawk Box on CNBC, my spiritual, philosophical and financial lodestar in life and La Dolce Vita of the mercati monetari globali. After all, our beautiful business began as a money lender’s bench in Renaissance Florence 600 years ago and if we ever ran out of cash, they ruptured our banco […]
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach Newswire – 2 June 2025 – June 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most eventful months of the year for global markets. For traders, this means opportunity—but also volatility. The economic calendar is packed with macroeconomic data releases and central bank meetings, while geopolitical risks remain close to the surface. Beyond the usual inflation prints and interest rate […]
Matein Khalid The US Treasury bond market is unnerved by Powell’s reluctance to cut rates at the May FOMC and increasing short bets on long duration Uncle Sam IOUs by the world’s biggest hedge funds. This is the reason the 2-year Treasury note yield, the single security most sensitive to changes in expectation of US central bank monetary policy, has risen 15 basis points this week to […]
Matein Khalid Thank God my macro instinct flashed a “get out” SOS in late February and I dumped King Dollar for Bonnie King Charlie’s British pound before New Year late last year and thus averted fate worse than death/Matty miskeen. My macro guardian angel now whispers a few subliminal ideas. One, Chinese factories shed 20 million workers last week and hiring is down 30%. So the youth […]
Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana are anticipated to experience price fluctuations between 3% and 5% as the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its latest monetary policy decisions.
As of Wednesday, Bitcoin has seen a modest uptick, trading at $83,290—a 1.2% increase, though it remains 31% below its January peak. Ethereum and Solana have also registered gains, with Ethereum rising by 1.5% and Solana by 1.6%.
The Federal Open Market Committee is set to release its rate review, along with growth and inflation projections. Market consensus suggests that the Fed will maintain current interest rates. However, investors are keenly awaiting Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for indications of potential shifts toward more accommodative monetary policies, especially in light of concerns surrounding the labor market and consumer spending.
Volmex’s one-day implied volatility indices, which measure expected price fluctuations, suggest that Bitcoin could see a 24-hour price swing of approximately 3.31%. Similarly, Ethereum and Solana are projected to experience movements of 5.25% and 5.73%, respectively.
Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited notable volatility around FOMC meetings. For instance, on August 5, 2024, Bitcoin’s price declined by 7.2%, while Ethereum dropped by 10.1%, coinciding with macroeconomic announcements. These movements were accompanied by surges in the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index, underscoring the sensitivity of cryptocurrency markets to such events.
Market participants are also reflecting on President Trump’s recent announcement of a U.S. “crypto reserve,” which includes assets like XRP, Cardano , and Solana . This initiative added over $200 billion to the cryptocurrency market’s value, with XRP’s market capitalization alone increasing by $44 billion. Bitcoin and Ethereum were subsequently added to the reserve, leading to a 9% surge in Bitcoin’s price to $93,000.
Despite these developments, Bitcoin’s price has faced challenges, hitting a four-month low of $76,867 before recovering slightly to $80,480. This decline is partly attributed to investor disappointment over the government’s stance on active cryptocurrency purchases.
Analysts caution that Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with potential support levels around $73,000. Weakness at this technical level could signal further declines, drawing parallels to the 2021 crypto market downturn. Market dynamics, including the prevalence of speculative assets like meme coins, suggest a fragile foundation, with retail traders holding depreciating assets.
Matein Khalid US money center banks/I-banks had their best year in 2024 since the pre-Covid Stone Age. My fav turnaround names Citi and Wells Fargo exceeded my wildest expectations while the prospect of light touch regulation and M&A/IPO underwriting jackpot made Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley go ballistic. Despite the post Dec FOMC fireworks, this sector will have winners if bought at the right price even though […]
