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HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach Newswire – 30 December 2024 – In September 2024, the Federal Reserve initiated a rate-cutting cycle, lowering rates three times over the year by a total of 100 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. While this trajectory appears stable on the surface, the VT Markets research team highlights that factors like inflation rebounds, new government policies, and optimistic economic forecasts […]

Matein Khalid I am still puzzled by the frenzied selling in the bond market after the FOMC cut its dot-plot projections from 4 to 2 for 2025 at its Dec 18 conclave. Why? Mr. Market had already priced in two rate cuts in 2025 after he was spooked by the uptick in core PCE/CPI data. Inflation risk in Trumpnomics is exaggerated but with the President elect now […]

Matein Khalid sTrump 2.0 will be all the more potent in reshaping America’s economic destiny since the White House, the Senate and the House are all blood red. Tariffs/mass deportation can mean inflation shocks but deregulation, AI adoption and DOGE will have a disinflationary impact on the economy. Trump will apply punitive tariffs on a selective basis on specific countries (notably China) but his economic team is […]

Matein Khalid The S&P 500 Index was the ultimate Thanksgiving gift to investors in US equities though the party poopah sectors like Big Pharma were the proverbial turkey. The post-election spike was only the icing on a cake that has been a dream for investors in the SPX, now up 27% with 53 record closes. America is 4% of the world’s population and 25% of its GDP […]

HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach Newswire – 9 October 2024 – As the Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative monetary policy, VT Markets emphasizes the importance for traders and investors to stay informed and proactive. The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 19, 2024, marks a significant shift from its previous aggressive rate-hiking regime to a strategy designed […]

Matein Khalid One thing is certain. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are not happy campers now that the yield on the 10-year US T-note, the single security most sensitive to expectation of shifts in Fed monetary policy, has jumped above 5%. This means that the bond market expects no FOMC rate cut tonight and for Chairman Powell to reiterate his current “higher for longer” interest rate […]

Matein Khalid I thought the US stock market was overextended last week after the FOMC statement endorsed Wall Street’s “three rate cuts in 2H 2024 consensus”. My problem was this could be derailed by one bad inflation number and that Goldilocks economy might find that its growth porridge was a tad too hot. This is exactly what happened with this week’s data and thus equities were slammed last night […]

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Matein Khalid Bliss it was that dawn to be alive but to be long Nvidia was pure heaven. The ghost of William Wordsworth will forgive me for butchering his verse but he could have written an immortal homage to the AI annus mirabilis of 2023 had he lived in our era. After all, the S&P 500 was up 24% in 2023 and is up 10.2% in the […]

Matein Khalid As we go into Fed watch purdah for the FOMC announcement tomorrow, one thing is certain. King Jay and his merry knights of the roundtable in DC will not move on interest rates but what they say about inflation and growth could move the financial markets with a seismic shock. The consensus prices-in at least three rate cuts in 2024 but the macro data, with […]

Matein Khalid The spectacular bull market that resumed in mid-October has continued into the first 9-weeks of 2024. True, Nvidia at 919, Meta at 500 and Microsoft at 415 have all been catapulted from Wall Street to Valhalla (the abode of the Nordic Gods!) but Apple is down 14% in 2024 at 172 and Tesla at 177 are not exactly looking all that hot as they did […]

Matein Khalid Nvidia’s epic rise from 150 in Jan-2023 to 726 now is historic in Silicon Valley. Yet it is no exaggeration to state that the entire fate of the Mag-7, the chip sector or even Nas-100 now depends on what Jensen Huang reports and guides on Wednesday. Nvidia (NVDA) shares are just not positioned for any hint of a disappointment in revenue or EPS growth. While revenues are […]

Matein Khalid “Be careful what you wish for. You may just get it”. This is an apt metaphor for the SEC’s approval of ETF launches by Wall Street’s best and brightest (biggest/meanest) fund houses from BlackRock to Fidelity, Invesco to WisdomTree. It does not surprise me that Bitcoin fell from $47,000 to $42,600 now because buy on the rumour, sell on the news is a recurrent theme […]

Matein Khalid It is no coincidence that the yield on the 10 year US Treasury note plunged 60 basis points to its current 4.34% and the US Dollar index slumped to 103.40 as successive benign October inflation data and dovish central banker comments has led to a pivot in Wall Street interest rate expectations, with the consensus now projecting two rate cuts at the March and May 2024 FOMC […]

Matein Khalid The smoke signals from the FOMC conclave suggests that Jay Powell will not gift the Street a pacifier nor deliver an electric shock, so expect a hawkish pause with no rate hike. The trillion-dollar shrinkage in the Fed’s balance sheet (QT) amplifies the liquidity squeeze since the ECB, BOE, RBA, BOC and yes, even Ueda-san’s BOJ are also slimming down their bloated balance sheets. Is […]

Matein Khalid The greenback was a one way bet since June when I had strongly recommended selling the Euro at 1.12 and the British pound at 1.31 since relative interest rate spreads/economic data momentum and central bank monetary policy all screamed another “buy me” spasm for King Dollar. The macro tea leaves got murky last week even as the war in Gaza escalates to IDF bombing raids […]

Best months to buy gold according to Octa analysts In this article, Octa expert examines recurring seasonal gold patterns and their influencing factors. KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach – 13 October 2023 – Like the blossom in spring and the harvest at the end of summer, gold shows recurring seasonal patterns or seasonality trends in its market performance. Let’s look at how seasonality and cyclicality affect […]

Matein Khalid Lord Rothschild’s advice to “buy when there is blood on the street” is perfectly apt in the bombed out carnage of US office REITs, where stocks have fallen on a quantum scale more than the value of the underlying brick and mortar. Vacancy rates have spiked in the post pandemic, remote/hybrid work zeitgeist of 2023, the Fed’s draconian monetary tightening has gutted valuations and the […]

Matein Khalid It was a mini Black Thursday for debt/equities last night but it was macro nirvana for me as four trade ideas I have rhapsodized ad nauseum in the past three months have now proved, “the mettle of their pasture”, to borrow from King Hal’s speech to his English archers on the eve of Agincourt. With Taiwan Semi and AMD down 25% from recent peaks and […]

Brent crude’s meteoric 35% rise from $70 in early June to $95 as successive Saudi Arabian/Russian output cuts and a 3MBD supply deficit in the wet barrel market, have rewritten the monetary equations of global finance. This is a brutal tax on the global consumer that slams growth and boosts inflation at a time when China’s property crisis threatens a Japan style lost decade deflation, Europe’s industrial […]

According to the latest labour report, the unemployment rate rose sharply from 3.5% to 3.8%. The Fed is expected to hold the key rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. Due to the mixed August inflation report, the Fed will likely have to take a hawkish tone in its messaging. The U.S. dollar will likely rise significantly due to the expected hawkish tone—USDJPY could rise to the […]

Matein Khalid The retail sales and PPI data bombshells only reinforces my view that a pause at the September FOMC only means that the Powell Fed is certain to raise the Fed funds rate to 5.75% in November. The terminal overnight borrowing rate in this cycle could well be 6.5%. The parabolic rise in Brent crude prices from $70 in early June to $93.4 demonstrates that the […]

In this article, OctaFX experts describe three events investors and traders should be aware of. Also, they talk about the impact of Fed decisions on the U.S. dollar exchange rate, the early onset of U.S. presidential election mania, and how India’s wedding season could accelerate the gold price. KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach – 14 September 2023 – With the global economy weakening, you may wonder […]

Rania Gule Bitcoin prices, currently trading near $25,900, have witnessed a significant surge in the cryptocurrency market ahead of the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. The impact of this data on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will likely depend on the overall market volatility after the data is released today. This means that if there are significant surprises in inflation figures, whether higher […]

Matein Khalid There is now no doubt in my mind that we are witnessing a replay of the inflection point in the global liquidity cycle that culminated in the Asian currency meltdown in 1997, the TMT debacle in 2000 and the subprime mortgage crisis/credit market contagion in September 2008. China’s $5 trillion deflation nightmare has only just begun, a replay of Japan’s two lost decades with a […]

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