Gold will rise to $2,500, and Bitcoin will rise to $45,000 by the end of 2023. OctaFX analysts explore the reasons behind the end of the crypto winter and the increase in demand for gold. KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach – 1 September 2023 – Capital markets come alive in late August and early September, and volatility returns. New trends often emerge, and opportunities to capitalise […]
Matein Khalid The $7 trillion foreign exchange market can be merciless if you read its macro smoke signals wrong or ignore the hoofbeats of the leveraged herds who determine its positioning, politics of central banks, government policy and above all the psychology that shapes sentiment. The biggest consensus trade for 2023 was supposed to be the dethronement of King Dollar amid a robust Chinese reopening recovery and […]
By Matein Khalid Bubbles are a recurrent phenomenon in financial markets, from Dutch Tulips in Rembrandt’s Amsterdam to Kuwait’s Souk al Manak, Japan’s Nikkei Dow to the dotcom debacle in 2000, the credit bubble in 2007 to the crypto SPAC roller coaster in 2021 and now the global hype over artificial intelligence (AI). Is there a bubble in AI stocks even though some have been blowout winners […]
Matein Khalid I must thank Saudi Arabia’s prince Abdulaziz for the very welcome 7% (pre-market) rise in APA Corp (APA), Marathon Oil (MRO) and Schlumberger (SLB). My three large cap stooges in the universe of black gold. The Saudi Oil Minister had sent numerous smoke signals that speculators were shorting paper oil, whose volumes are often 15 to 20 times the 100 million barrels a day consumed […]
Matein Khalid There was no way Uncle Sam was going to allow a mass extinction event to destroy thousands of VC funded tech and life science startup to be wiped out due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The “flight to quality” trade, illustrated by a steep plunge in the yield of the 2 year US Treasury note from 5.07% last Wednesday to 4.35% is […]
The U.S. dollar fell sharply on Monday as authorities stepped in to cap the fallout from the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, with investors hoping the Federal Reserve will take a less aggressive monetary path. The U.S. government announced several measures early on Monday Asian hours, and said all SVB customers will have access […]
The post Dollar sinks as US intervenes on SVB collapse first appeared on IPA Newspack.
Matein Khalid Was King Dollar dethroned in November? The trade weighted US Dollar Index rose 20% from June 2021 to November 2022, its biggest bullish run since the year before the Plaza Accord in 1985. The macro ballast behind the King Dollar trend gained huge momentum after the Powell Fed abandoned its “inflation is transitory” mantra and began to raise interest rates in early 2022. The US […]
Matein Khalid Don’t fight the Fed is a Wall Street cliché that makes total strategic and tactical sense as America heads for Turkey/cranberry sauce this Thanksgiving. While the S&P index is up 12% since its October low on euphoria over a CPI dip, hopes (misplaced) of a Fed pivot, a fall in the 10 year US note yield to 3.77% and a 4% drop in King Dollar. […]
Matein Khalid My digital purdah came to an end with a bang and not a whimper as Powell made it clear that it is “very premature to think about a pausing”. This was a cold shower to the bulls and the DJIA went from +350 to -500. What an ouch! The Treasury bond market resumed its bloodbath. Chairman Powell’s message to the Street was precisely what I […]
Matein Khalid I was invited by Geneva’s Bank Syz for a fascinating discussion with its CIO Charles Monchau and some of my close friends who are family office CIOs at Zuma, a wonderful venue that I had never visited in the afternoon until now. It is always nice to see a familiar place from a totally different perspective in sunlight fortified by Evian! Danke schön/merci beaucoup/molto grazie […]
Matein Khalid Investor | Family Office CIO | Portfolio Strategist | Board Advisor | VC | Finance Professor September CPI was a disaster and now makes it impossible for the Federal Reserve to pause, let alone ease monetary policy until the Fed Funds rate reaches at least 5%, which it will by early 2023. This is not a mere opinion as opinions are like a certain body […]
Matein Khalid This is definitely not the best of all possible Panglossian macro worlds as the S&P 500 is 20% below its January peak, growth stocks continue to get crushed on Nasdaq while credit spreads have almost doubled and Brent crude is at $114. The Powell Fed waited too long to tighten with its myopic mantra of “inflation is transitory” and has pivoted to monetary tightening at […]
Matein Khalid The mini crash in crude oil in Asia was triggered by the rumour that China’s zero Covid policy means that Beijing will join Shanghai, the world’s largest port and the PRC’s financial capital, in a draconian lockdown that will gut demand for petroleum products in the world’s second largest oil importer. Brent has fallen almost $40 from its post-Ukraine invasion high and it’s evident that […]
By Matein Khalid If Checkpoint Charlie in West Berlin was the epicentre of the Cold War between NATO and the Soviet Union’s Warsaw Pact satellite states, Ukraine is the crucible of the geopolitical confrontation between the West and Putin’s Russia. Putin weaponized Gazprom’s gas exports to Ukraine as far back as 2006, fomented secessionist militias […]
The post A New Global Energy Order Emerging With US Supplies As Pivot first appeared on IPA Newspack.
Matein Khalid The Russian invasion of Ukraine is both a humanitarian tragedy and an economic disaster. Something is dangerously wrong in a world where its second largest oil producer is now a pariah state that makes a mockery of international law and will soon be crippled once its banks are ejected from SWIFT. Russia and Ukraine are also the source of almost one third the world’s wheat/corn […]
By Matein Khalid As the 5% crude oil plunge in both WTI and Brent on fears of Omicron demand shock demonstrates, the fate of the virus is inextricably linked to global economic growth, Fed policy and thus commodities returns. Yet thanks to black gold’s stellar performance the GSCI Energy index was a winner in 2021, up 47%. Even Brent rebounded 4% to 74 a barrel in its […]
By Matein Khalid The financial markets gave a green light to risk assets after the December FOMC conclave because the Federal Reserve has shifted its monetary strategy from post pandemic money printing to a traditional anti-inflation stance. Chairman Powell’s decision to drop his “inflation is transitory” argument and the FOMC’s decision to double the taper with three planned rate hikes in 2022 is thus a game changer […]
Matein Khalid If 2021 was an annus mirabilis for investors in US equities, Big Tech and REITs (we know who you are!). It was unquestionably an annus horribilis for China, the Big Daddy of emerging market (EM) equities. President Xi’s regulatory assault triggered a 40 to 50% blood bath in Chinese internet stocks (Didi, tera holder dewana. Hare Ram ye dictator ka zamana!) at a time when […]
Matein Khalid Any investor who missed 2021’s spectacular rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq has really missed out on an incredible money making epoch. The S&P 500 index is up 20%. Google, which I had recommended as a strategic buy at 1715 is up 65% in 2021 alone. The index is up 68% from the March 2020 pandemic lows even as the global economy has been […]
After an epic fall in 2020-2021 due the coronavirus shock and the subsequent explosion in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to its current $8.2 trillion, the US dollar has made a counter cyclical move to 93 on its trade weighted index (DXY). The catalyst for this move are massive Japanese purchase of long duration US Treasury bonds, Chinese central bank intervention to arrest the rise of the […]
By Matein Khalid Oscar Wilde once spoke of his friendship with Lord Alfred Douglas, the fabled Bosie, as “the love that dare not speak its name”, in Victorian London, when Sherlock Holmes and Jack the Ripper roamed amid the fog and the gaslights! The love that dare not speak its name in my life is, of course, my obsession with foreign exchange markets, a love that mesmerizes […]
By Matein Khalid Thankfully, I was not in the global markets during the Black Death, the Great Plague and the Spanish flu pandemic but coronavirus cases have now crossed 40,000 infections and this is way beyond a local Wuhan outbreak. Despite the blowout 225,000 US January non-farm payrolls growth data, I am alarmed by the global recession SOS in the capital markets metrics I track. One, the […]
By Matein Khalid My tactical idea last week to recommend buying sterling against the US dollar (cable) at 1.30 for a 1.34 target is 200 pips in the money now that the Bank of England kept the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% despite Governor Carney’s smoke signals. Sterling closed at 1.32 on Friday evening and will be well bid next week – hopefully. I expect Governor Bailey […]
By Matein Khalid I had recommended buying the Tadawul ETF iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia (symbol KSA on NYSE) on November 30 to benefit from the post-IPO surge in the price of the Saudi Aramco IPO shares on the Tadawul. This tactical trade was a beauty even before Saudi Aramco shares soared 20% on its Thursday December 12 to peak at 38.7 Saudi riyals (SAR). As I expected, […]
