One week ago, we pointed out a curious bifurcation: the Fed was telegraphing an imminent rate hike – one which following Yellen’s Friday conference is now virtually assured – even though it appears the FOMC would be hiking in a quarter in which GDP comes in in the mid 1%-range, or lower. The reason: while “soft data” – which is important to animal spirits if not actual […]
March 15 is not only the day when the FOMC is now widely expected to hike rates by another 25 bps, and when the US debt ceiling suspension expires, but just as importantly, is the date of the 2017 Dutch General Election. Here is a full preview of what to expect courtesy of RBC Capital Markets. By way of background, the Netherlands is the euro area’s 5th-largest […]
There were no surprises in Yellen’s speech in Chicago on Friday in which the Fed chair confirmed the sudden and dramatic hawkish turn hinted at earlier in the week by Dudley and Williams, and which sent March rate hike odds from the low 30s to nearly 100% in the span of days. According to Yellen, the FOMC would “evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve […]
While equity market euphoria at the prospect of President Donald Trump’s spendthrift, deregulatory agenda remains undimmed, bond investors are sending a very different message. US equity gauges have continued to climb this year, propelled by hopes of deregulation, tax cuts, government spending and more business-friendly policies. This week all four of the biggest stock indices achieved yet another “Grand Slam” of fresh records in the wake of […]
The US economy and fiscal policy face an uncertain path under the administration of Donald Trump, Janet Yellen warned on Tuesday as she declared “monetary policy is not on a preset course” but said it would be “unwise” to raise rates too slowly. Testifying before Congress on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve chair painted a picture of an economy with accelerating growth, higher inflation and a robust labour […]
Fed Chair Yellen will be appearing before Congress deliver her semi-annual monetary policy testimony (sometimes called the “Humphrey-Hawkins” testimony) today. Her prepared remarks are expected to sound similar to her most recent speech, noting that the labor market has tightened and wage pressures are increasing modestly. As BofA details, she will likely note that the Fed is making progress toward its mandate of full employment and price […]
Last year, Google Chrome was the speediest Windows 10 web browser by a mile. This year, it’s a different story. Picking out the best Windows 10 web browser isn’t easy at all. The worse, however, by a country mile, is Internet Explorer 11. sjvn To put today’s browsers to the test I ran them on the latest shipping edition of Windows 10 Home: Version 10240.17236. I ran […]
|By Matein Khalid| The US Dollar Index has now fallen 3.5% since it peaked on January 3. Donald Trump and his White House aides broke the 20 year taboo against speaking out against the “strong dollar” policy platitudes. The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates and signaled no rate hike is imminent at the March FOMC. It is significant that the US dollar has fallen against […]
The Federal Reserve signalled it remains on course for further increases in short-term interest rates this year as inflation heads back towards target, even as it avoided giving strong indications on the timing of the next move. The US central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range at 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent in a unanimous decision, following a quarter-point increase […]
The Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday but keep the markets primed for further monetary tightening as it surveys steady growth and a tightening labour market. Recent statements from Fed chair Janet Yellen have suggested that she does not want to rush into a third rate increase, but that she also has no intention of letting the US economy overheat. This points to a […]
European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all drop after traders were left with a sour taste from the potential fallout of Donald Trump’s order halting some immigration and ahead of central bank decisions from the U.S. and Japan. Markets in Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam are all shut due to the Lunar New Year public holiday, leading to a quiet Asian session. Oil […]
The Federal Reserve should be ready to consider reducing the size of its balance sheet as part of its efforts to prevent overheating in the US, a senior policymaker said as he noted the pick-up in wage inflation and predicted a return of inflation to target by the end of the year. Eric Rosengren, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that if the […]
January 6, 2017 by: Adam Samson in New York US wage growth accelerated to the quickest pace since 2009 last month, underscoring rising inflationary pressure as President Barack Obama prepares to pass the torch to Donald Trump. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 per cent in December from the previous month, beating expectations for a 0.3 per cent pick-up, the Labor Department said in the final employment report […]
|By Matein Khalid|“Few individuals alter the course of history. Fewer still change the map of the world. Hardly anyone creates a nation state. Mohammed Ali Jinnah did all three”. Dr. Stanley Wolpert’s words still give me goose pimples two decades after I first read his book. Mr. Jinnah founded Pakistan and was also my ancestral kinsman. I too was born in Karachi, the city by the sea, […]
A hundred years ago, an arms race between the dominant global superpower the (British Empire) and a rising power (Kaiser Wilhelm’s Germany) culminated in the mass slaughter of World War One. The deep mistrust between the United States and the People’s Republic of China has all the potential to spawn a traumatic chapter in international relations. Despite its “pivot” to Asia, the Obama White House was cautious […]
The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Thursday. Chair Yellen’s speech on the labor market on Monday afternoon is also likely to garner considerable attention. While the calendar gets quieter in the weeks ahead over the holiday season, there are a few notable macro events to keep traders occupied. This week, the Bank of Japan and Riksbank deliver their latest policy verdicts, […]
Sunday, 18 December 2016 – Today, Phidar Advisory released its Dubai residential research note with November data, which is now reported using a 3-month moving average. The report shows that residential rents continue to decline and projects further declines. “The risk in the residential market remains on the downside,” said Jesse Downs, Managing Director of Phidar Advisory. “Weak investment demand and softening rents will push rates down […]
By Sam Forgione | NEW YORK NEW YORK The U.S. dollar edged lower against a basket of major currencies on Friday, but still held near 14-year highs touched after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, with profit-taking halting the greenback’s rally. The dollar index .DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was last at 102.900, not far from Thursday’s 14-year high of 103.560 but […]
“If they’ve managed to sleep through the night, bonds traders in the US will have quite a shock when they check their screens in the morning,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, tweeted early on Thursday. Wall Street bond traders and investors will have turned in on Wednesday night already jolted by the Federal Reserve, which under Janet Yellen’s leadership has become synonymous with caution on […]
The prospect of a more aggressive Federal Reserve and a surge in the oil price hit global bonds on Monday, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note above 2.5 per cent for the first time since 2014. Treasuries have led a sharp sell-off in sovereign bonds since Donald Trump’s victory in last month’s US election, raising the prospect that Fed officials will have to raise […]
By Howard Schneider | WASHINGTON WASHINGTON The Federal Reserve inaugurates the Trump era this week with a near-certain interest rate increase and new economic forecasts providing a first glimpse into whether the U.S. election has reshaped the central bank’s growth and inflation outlook. Fed fund futures show a 97 percent probability that the Fed will lift rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the end […]
Ahead of next week, here are the big questions we are asking at FT Markets What signal will the Federal Reserve send? The last US central bank meeting of the year will unfold on Wednesday with all eyes on officials’ latest assessment of the economy and the press conference of Fed chief Janet Yellen. Plenty has changed since their previous gathering just before the US election. Dollar […]
December 2, 2016 by: Mamta Badkar in New York The US economy added 178,000 jobs in November while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2007, suggesting the US Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates this month. The jobs tally was just shy of economists’ expectations for 180,000. That compared to the 142,000 jobs it created in October. While the data showed […]
While most global equity markets were subdued due to the US Thaksgiving holiday, the FX world was very busy overnight, marked by the relentless dollar surge on expectations of a rate hike not only in December but further in 2017, sending Asian currencies to the weakest level in 7 years: the Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index reached 103.32, the lowest level since March 2009. The regional FX plunge […]
