By Sushil Kutty
Watch out. Will Maharashtra Lok Sabha elections throw up surprises? The state dangles like a ripe fruit for the taking. Everybody is just waiting. The alliances, they seem they’re many. What happened to the Maha Vikas Aghadi, and did the BJP and the Shinde Shiv Sena combine have a name before Ajit Pawar split the Nationalist Congress Party and joined the BJP-Shinde Shiv Sena combine? Now, there is the INDI-Alliance and the BJP-Shiv Sena-Ajit Pawar group eyeing the spoils from the 2024 general elections with neither alliance instilling trust and confidence.
There is an undercurrent of instability marking the Maharashtra election scenario. There is also social unrest and farmers are on the warpath. “Is India an illiberal democracy?” is a question that keeps popping up. Wasn’t one of the Parliament security breach perpetrators from Latur, Maharashtra? The fellow was unemployed. And jobs are a big issue in general elections 2024. Now, a sharp communal polarization has joined with the Ayodhya Ram Mandir to become a matter of concern with the BJP counting on it for bagging majority seats in most every state including Maharashtra.
The Shiv Sena-UBT and the BJP are fighting each other on who is a stauncher Ram bhakt. The Ram Mandir Trust has not invited the Shiv Sena to the temple inauguration and Shiv Sena-UBT cannot stop amplifying that the “Shiv Sena of ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat’ Balasaheb Thackeray was the one which demolished Babri Masjid” and not the BJP even if LK Advani drew all the return-fire.
Politics over Ram Mandir impacts Maharashtra most is a matter of fact and old hearsay. The 2024 general elections will be fought on the issue if the state and the central governments are given a free-hand. In that case, would it be a “triumphant year” for the BJP in as far as general elections 2024 is concerned?
A number of political fortunes are at stake. For example, that of Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray. Also that of Ajit Pawar. And at 80-plus, this may be the last Lok Sabha elections for Sharad Pawar. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde also has to deliver. Devendra Fadnavis, too. The BJP-Shinde Shiv Sena-Ajit Pawar-NCP troika has no other option but to secure max Lok Sabha seats from Maharashtra for Modi’s third-time prime ministerial bid. Narendra Modi will be the biggest loser if his Maharashtra cabal doesn’t deliver.
Don’t forget, Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats, second only to Uttar Pradesh’s 80. In 2019, the BJP won 23 and its then ally Shiv Sena 18. Today, the two are in opposite camps and Shiv Sena-UBT is split down the middle. Also the NCP is splintered in half. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi setting a target of 50 percent vote share in all states where the BJP is a force, the Fadnavis-Shinde-Ajit Pawar coalition cannot fail.
The novelty of Ajit Pawar splitting ways with Sharad Pawar and how that translates for the Lok Sabha elections also matters. The elephant in the room is Sharad Pawar. And to the horror of the ruling coalition, the aggressive posturing of the INDI-Alliance, especially Shiv Sena-UBT, is not only getting on BJP’s nerves, but also on the nerves of the mainstream media friendly to the BJP. January 1, 2024, a Shiv Sena spokesperson reminded an anchor of the atmosphere inside Navi Mumbai’s crowded Taloja Jail. The threat was not thinly veiled.
The fact is, the BJP-Shiv Sena coalition of old is dead and buried. And even if the Sena’s Shinde faction is the dominant one because it happens to be in power and because Shinde is Chief Minister, the mojo is soundly with the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray Sena and the historical ally cannot make sense of it. Will Maharashtra’s electorate “go back to voting for the Thackeray family?” considering that the novelty of Eknath Shinde has worn away.
Willy-nilly, the situation has changed. It cannot be said with surety whether the BJP-Shinde Sena combine, strengthened with the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP, will be able to repeat the BJP-Shiv Sena’s 2019 tally of 41 seats? The confidence is missing and 2019 seems like such a long time ago. So, like everywhere else, the BJP is falling back on the one factor which the party believes it can bank on, which is the Narendra Modi factor, i.e., when everything is lost, when nothing works, there’s always Narendra Modi to fall back on – the name and face of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Just like in the three states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, which were the tests for the main examination in 2024. Does not matter whether there is agrarian distress, erratic monsoon, crop damage, compensation not given, jobs crisis, rising prices, social-communal unrest – nothing matters so long as there is “Modi Ki Guarantee” to set things right – for the here, now and for the next five years.
Take a look at the progress of the slogans: If in 2014, it was ‘Abki Bar Modi Sarkar’, in 2019 it was ‘Modi Hai to Mumkin Hai’ and ‘Ek Bar Fir Modi Sarkar’. In 2024, it’s ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ and ‘Fir Ayega Modi’. The 2024 general elections is also being touted as ‘Modi ka Chunav’ and the slogan ‘Sapna Nahin Haqiqat Bunte Hain, Tabhi to Hum Modi Ko Chunte Hain’ is being amplified in Maharashtra, too. It is a challenge for the INDI-Alliance to stop the Modi juggernaut. (IPA Service)
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