The rally reflected a market view that the worst-case economic fallout from the conflict may yet be avoided if negotiations regain momentum. Investors were encouraged by signs that talks between Washington and Tehran could resume after earlier efforts faltered, easing some fears over energy supply disruptions and allowing attention to swing back to earnings, economic data and the resilience of household demand in the United States and Asia. That shift in mood helped lift US stock futures and underpinned broader gains from Tokyo to Mumbai.
Japan led the advance, with exporters and technology names benefiting from stronger risk appetite and the market’s belief that any easing in Middle East tensions could reduce pressure on fuel costs and shipping. The Nikkei’s record level also reflected investor confidence that large Japanese companies remain well placed to benefit from global demand for semiconductors, automation and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Elsewhere, South Korean and Hong Kong shares also moved higher, while mainland Chinese markets were supported by data showing the economy expanded by 5.0 per cent in the first quarter, beating expectations and offering some reassurance that domestic activity has retained momentum despite the geopolitical shock.
Wall Street’s lead mattered. The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95 on Wednesday, a record that marked a full recovery from losses triggered after the conflict began in late February, while the Nasdaq posted another record finish and extended a powerful winning streak. Strong results from major banks, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, reinforced the idea that corporate America is entering the earnings season on firmer footing than many investors had feared when oil prices spiked and risk assets sold off. Reuters reported that 84 per cent of companies that had reported by then had beaten expectations, helping to steady nerves about margins and consumer activity.
The earnings story is now sharing the stage with geopolitics. Markets are effectively pricing a narrower range of negative outcomes than they were only weeks ago, but that optimism remains conditional. Oil prices, while off their most alarming levels, are still elevated by historical standards, and every diplomatic headline continues to carry outsized weight because the Strait of Hormuz remains central to global crude flows. Reports that Iran may allow shipping through the waterway helped calm traders, though supply risks have not disappeared, especially with refinery disruptions in Australia and the threat of fresh sanctions or military miscalculation still present.
That tension between relief and caution is visible across asset classes. The dollar was broadly steady, the euro stayed firm, gold edged up and cryptocurrencies drifted lower, all signs that investors have not fully abandoned hedges even as they add exposure to equities. In India, shares opened higher as lower oil prices and hopes of renewed dialogue supported all major sectors, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex building on gains from the previous session. For economies that import large volumes of energy, any sustained cooling in crude would ease inflation pressure, support currencies and give central banks more room to focus on domestic growth rather than external shocks.
Technology remains a central pillar of the market’s confidence. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was in focus ahead of results that investors expected to show a sharp profit jump, driven by demand tied to artificial intelligence chips. That anticipation has fed into a broader belief that the AI investment cycle can continue to offset weakness elsewhere in the global economy. Yet the strength of that narrative also creates a vulnerability: richly valued technology shares leave little room for disappointment, and any sign of slowing orders or tighter capital spending could quickly change the market tone.
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