For the opposition INDIA bloc, after a chilling two months of despair and political setbacks following the desertion of Nitish Kumar led JD(U) and Jayant Choudhury led RLD to NDA, the last seven days of February have brought new optimism in the INDIA ranks. The period beginning February 20 when the Supreme Court installed the AAP candidate as the Mayor of Chandigarh Corporation , has witnessed the conclusion of the electoral alliance between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress for the crucial 80 seats for Lok Sabha in Uttar Pradesh and finally AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat, Goa and the Chandigarh seat.
Now talks are on for the conclusion of seat sharing in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. This will be followed by talks in Bihar and Jharkhand. The Congress election committee led by Mukul Wasnik is working with big speed and in every step, the Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi are being apprised so that if needed, high level intervention from the top is done to solve any dispute which can not be solved at state level. This composite approach is a result of the recent feeling of the major INDIA constituents that all is not that bad after January 22 hype of Ram Mandir generated by the saffron camp. If united, INDIA can meet the BJP challenge in 2024 polls..
The impact is being felt all through. Even in the corporate media embedded to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, views are being expressed that it will not be a cake walk for the BJP. Prime Minister’s mentioning the 370 seats for BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as against 303 won by the Party in 2019 polls, may remain a distant dream. The BJP led NDA may win for the consecutive third time but it will not be that overwhelming as the ruling party leaders, especially Prime Minister, are making out, some of the political analysts are saying.
Yes, the doubts in the pro-Modi camp have started and these will be further bigger as the INDIA bloc completes its process of seat sharing of all states by the middle of March before the announcement of the Lok Sabha poll schedule. The BJP’ war room for 2024 Lok Sabha elections was at the height of its optimism in the last week of January in the wake of immediate impact of Ram Mandir inauguration but by now, one month later, there is serious introspection about the potential of the Ram Mandir inauguration in bringing votes for the BJP. After the Congress-SP alliance in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP think tanks are not that gaga about the originally projected Lok Sabha tally which ranged between 320 to 350.
Can there be a repeat of 2004 Lok Sabha polls results in 2024 elections? There are chances and INDIA bloc can ensure that through a foolproof electoral strategy. The BJP’s tally of 303 can be brought down to the level of 200 to 220 but for that the Congress has to perform extremely well in the Hindi speaking states where the BJP swept in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Regional parties will do well in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Only the Congress has to perform better in the Hindi speaking states where it is the main INDIA block party challenging the BJP in the polls. If the Congress achieves a strike rate of 40 per cent in these states, the BJP will lose 80 to 100 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP reached its highest level of tally in 2019 polls, it can not get more, its number can only come down, but the question is how many?
Let us explore the possibilities of how this reduction of BJP seats is possible in 2024 polls and what the Congress needs to do. The states where the BJP was at its peak in 2019 polls are Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand and Delhi. These states comprise a total of 225 seats out of which the Congress got only six seats and the BJP got 177 seats. Excepting Bihar, UP and Delhi, in all other states of this Hindi speaking belt, the Congress is the main INDIA challenger. The Congress has to win at least additional 40 seats from this belt. Outside this Hindi heartland, if the Congress can improve its tally from Karnataka and Telangana, that can add to another ten to 15 seats from these two states. That will help the Congress in crossing the figure of one hundred. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
It is quite possible that in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party will be getting another ten new seats and in Bihar, the INDIA bloc will be getting around fifteen to twenty seats taking into account the declining fortunes of JD(U). In Bengal, the BJP may lose at least ten seats irrespective of the nature of INDIA alliance. The BJP can thus be reduced to around 220 seats. Only doubt is it mostly depends on the Congress performance. If the Congress fails in its fight against the BJP in the Hindi speaking states, the BJP will scrape through or attain the figure of 260.
One thing the INDIA bloc has to keep in mind that if the BJP tally in 2024 polls comes anywhere above 240, it will be able to form the government. The Party is flush with funds. It does not need electoral bonds money (just scrapped) to finance its poll expenditure. The Party will be spending huge amount for winning Lok Sabha polls this time.
The BJP election machine is sophisticated. The Party is consistently monitoring its prospects through its survey agencies and immediately corrective measures are being taken. Apart Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself is a master strategist. INDIA bloc has to ensure now that maximum unity is built at the grassroots level among the cadres of the alliance partners. The voters are angry against the BJP and its policies, but they have to be approached with the right slogans. Next few weeks are crucial and the Congress Party has to keep its own house in order to play its due role in the electoral battle against the BJP in Lok Sabha polls. (IPA Service)
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