News related to
Expo

China has authorised state oil refiners to draw on commercial crude reserves as the Middle East war enters its sixth week, a move that points to mounting concern in Beijing over supply security, refinery operations and fuel stability in the world’s biggest crude importer. The decision marks a notable shift after reporting in March indicated that access to such reserves had been denied, underscoring how sharply the market backdrop has changed.

The policy adjustment comes as the conflict centred on Iran has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that handled about 20 million barrels a day of crude and oil products in 2025 and remains one of the most critical chokepoints in global energy trade. The International Energy Agency said in March that the war had created the biggest supply disruption in oil market history, with flows through Hormuz falling from around 20 million barrels a day before the war to only a trickle.

For China, the timing is especially sensitive. State refiners have already been grappling with higher feedstock costs, disrupted shipping routes and a scramble for replacement barrels from outside the Gulf. Reuters reported in late March that Sinopec, the country’s largest refiner by capacity, had sought access to state reserves after deciding against buying Iranian crude, while also trimming refinery runs. Earlier reporting in mid-March said China had been building inventories rather than drawing them down, suggesting Beijing initially preferred to preserve stocks.

That stance now appears to have softened. Bloomberg reported on April 10 that authorities had given state refiners the green light to tap commercial reserves. While the precise volume and duration were not publicly disclosed, the move is significant because it signals Beijing is willing to use part of the country’s stock cushion to smooth supplies for domestic processing rather than rely solely on the spot market at a time of exceptional volatility.

The wider market has been under intense pressure even as talk of a ceasefire has briefly cooled futures prices. Reuters reported that physical crude markets in Europe and Africa remained extremely tight despite a temporary truce, with buyers in Asia and Europe competing aggressively for non-Middle East barrels. Another Reuters report said U. S. crude premiums had surged to record highs as importers sought alternatives to Gulf supplies. That matters for China because replacing lost or delayed Middle East cargoes has become more expensive just as refining margins in parts of Asia remain fragile.

Supply conditions deteriorated further this week after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure cut output capacity by around 600,000 barrels a day and reduced throughput on the East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 barrels a day, according to Saudi state media cited by Reuters. The pipeline is vital because it allows exports to bypass Hormuz via the Red Sea. Damage there narrowed one of the few remaining alternative routes for Gulf producers trying to keep oil moving to Asian customers.

Asian refiners have already felt the strain. Reuters reported that seaborne crude imports into Asia in April were estimated at 19.22 million barrels a day, sharply below the three-month average of 25 million barrels a day. Although refined fuel prices eased after hopes of a truce, the same report said the market was still stressed and that it could take months for normality to return even if shipping improves. For Beijing, releasing commercial stocks is therefore less a dramatic emergency measure than a tactical effort to bridge a period of dislocation.

The decision also reflects China’s domestic balancing act. Authorities have been trying to keep fuel output steady even as weak underlying demand and higher crude costs squeeze refiners. Reuters reported on April 2 that officials had pressed independent refiners to maintain production despite the surge in oil prices and wartime disruption. That suggests Beijing is seeking to avoid sharp swings in fuel availability or industrial costs while preserving broader economic stability.

There is also a geopolitical layer. China has opposed any overtly force-based international response around Hormuz and has pushed for de-escalation at the United Nations, according to Reuters reporting on Security Council negotiations. At the same time, the reserve release shows that Beijing is preparing for a conflict that may not be resolved quickly and for shipping conditions that may remain uncertain even if diplomatic language softens.

The ratings agency said elevated oil prices are likely to widen the current-account deficit this year and weaken external buffers, even as it still expects the economy to expand at a healthy pace and the fiscal deficit to narrow over the next two years. S&P projected growth of 5.8% in 2026 after the economy expanded 4.4% in 2025, with softer momentum in the first half and a rebound later in the year.

The decision lands at a delicate moment for Manila. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas warned this week that higher fuel costs were already feeding into broader prices after March inflation accelerated to 4.1%, above the central bank’s 2% to 4% target band and sharply higher than February’s 2.4%. Transport costs were the main driver, with diesel prices up 59.5% from a year earlier and gasoline up 27.3%, while core inflation also edged higher, suggesting second-round effects may be starting to build.

That inflation pulse helps explain why S&P has become more cautious. A country that depends heavily on imported fuel is especially exposed when conflict disrupts Middle East energy flows, and the Philippines has been among the Asian economies hit hardest by the latest oil shock. Reuters reported that Brent crude had risen 55% since the Iran war began on February 28, while the Philippine peso slid to record lows against the dollar, adding another layer of imported inflation pressure.

The external vulnerability is not new, but the conflict has made it harder to ignore. Philippine officials have been scrambling to secure energy supplies, including seeking assurances over safe passage for Philippine-flagged ships and fuel cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz. Manila has also explored alternative sources of crude and emergency measures to protect domestic supply, underlining how quickly a geopolitical crisis can turn into a ratings issue for an energy-importing economy.

For investors, the key point is that S&P did not cut the rating itself. The agency kept the BBB+ grade in place, indicating that it still sees underlying strengths in the economy, including growth potential, remittance support and expectations of gradual fiscal repair. That distinction matters. An outlook change signals rising risk over the medium term, but it is not the same as a downgrade, and it leaves room for the sovereign to stabilise if external pressures ease and macroeconomic management holds firm.

Still, the downgrade in outlook will sharpen attention on the government’s fiscal path. The Philippines has already lowered its medium-term growth targets to reflect the impact of Middle East tensions and shifts in US trade policy. Official forecasts now put 2025 growth at 5.5% to 6.5%, down from 6% to 8%, while targets for 2026 to 2028 have been narrowed to 6% to 7%. That softer growth backdrop makes deficit reduction harder, particularly if the state is forced to spend more on fuel relief, transport support or other measures to cushion households and businesses.

There are signs, however, that the fiscal picture is not uniformly worsening. Treasury data showed the budget deficit in February narrowed marginally from a year earlier, while year-to-date figures improved sharply because of stronger revenues and earlier remittance of dividends. S&P’s own statement suggests it still expects fiscal metrics to improve, even if the war has made that path more vulnerable to setbacks.

Beyond the government balance sheet, the social cost of the energy spike is becoming harder to miss. Reuters reported that some farmers in Benguet province were abandoning harvests because higher fuel, labour and transport costs made it uneconomic to bring produce to market. That kind of strain matters for credit analysis because it shows how an oil shock can move from shipping lanes and currency markets into household spending, food supply chains and political pressure for intervention.

The firm was recognised across various categories, a testament to its continued outperformance:

1. Kenanga Growth Fund (“KGF“) – Best Equity Malaysia – Malaysia Provident Funds over 5 Years
2. Kenanga Growth Fund Series 2 MYR Class (“KGFS2“) – Best Equity Malaysia Diversified – Malaysia Provident Funds over 3 Years
3. Kenanga Malaysian Inc Fund (“KMIF“) – Best Equity Malaysia Diversified – Malaysia Provident Funds over 10 Years
4. Kenanga Managed Growth Fund (“KMGF“) – Best Mixed Asset MYR Balanced Malaysia – Malaysia Provident Funds over 10 Years

Datuk Wira Ismitz Matthew De Alwis, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director said, “We are honoured to be recognised by LSEG Lipper for our consistent performance in 2025 against a backdrop of volatility, underpinned by heightened trade wars. During the year, geopolitical risks and trade tensions caused sudden swings in sentiment, which affected small- and mid-cap stocks. We steered clear of headlines and focused on sustainable earnings. This allowed us to selectively position ourselves for when valuations turned compelling while reducing exposure when risks escalated which proved effective and underscores our expertise in Malaysian equities”.

Since the launch of KGF in 2000 and KGFS2 in 2018, both funds have demonstrated consistent performance. As of December 2025, each has surpassed RM1 billion in assets under management¹, underscoring Kenanga Investors’ disciplined investment approach and commitment to long term value creation. This year’s Awards also mark KGF’s sixth Lipper title while KGFS2 celebrates its inaugural win.

Lee Sook Yee, Chief Investment Officer, elaborated on the firm’s approach, “We maintained a disciplined bottom‑up stock‑picking strategy anchored in company fundamentals, giving us the conviction to stay invested in high quality businesses with strong balance sheets and structural growth drivers. This was supported by a strict risk management framework focused on sector diversification, prudent buffers, and incremental rebalancing. In 2026, we will emphasise themes such as artificial intelligence and data centre expansion, infrastructure, utilities, and selective REITs, while remaining true to our investment philosophy”.

Over the five‑year period ended 31 December 2025, KGF delivered a total return of 48.82%, significantly outperforming its benchmark² of 3.25%. Similarly, KGFS2 achieved a robust 49.92% return compared to its benchmark’s³ 46.93%. KMIF also recorded solid results with a 32.67% return against a benchmark⁴ of 5.26%, while KMGF posted a commendable 25.88% return, exceeding its benchmark’s⁵ 11.32%.

The firm also recently introduced the Kenanga Growth Fund Series 3 (“KGFS3“), the third fund within its flagship conventional fund series. The KGFS3 utilises the firm’s proven investment philosophy and is managed with an active investment strategy depending on the market conditions and outlook, combining a top-down asset and sector allocation process with a bottom-up stock selection methodology.

The LSEG Lipper Fund Awards, granted annually, highlight funds and fund companies that have excelled in delivering consistently strong risk-adjusted performance relative to their peers. The Awards are based on the Lipper Leader for Consistent Return rating, which is a risk-adjusted performance measure calculated over 36, 60 and 120 months. This year’s achievements will serve to strengthen Kenanga Investors’ market leadership and drive its focus on creating enduring value for its investors.

For more information about Kenanga Investors, please visit kenangainvestors.com.my.

¹ Source: Lipper, 31 December 2025

² Benchmark: FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI CR

³ Benchmark: 8% p.a.

⁴ Benchmark: FTSE Bursa Malaysia Top 100 CR

⁵ Benchmark: FTSE Bursa Malaysia Top 100 Index (50%) & All MGS Index by RAM Quant Shop (50%)

Hashtag: #Kenanga

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

Kenanga Investors Berhad 199501024358 (353563-P)

We provide investment solutions ranging from collective investment schemes, portfolio management services, alternative investments, as well as wills and trusts for retail, corporate, institutional, and high net worth clients via a multi-distribution network.

The LSEG Lipper Fund Awards 2026 recognised four funds under the Malaysia Provident Funds category; Kenanga Growth Fund was named Equity Malaysia (5 Years), Kenanga Growth Fund Series 2 was awarded Equity Malaysia Diversified (3 Years), Kenanga Malaysian Inc Fund was awarded Equity Malaysia Diversified (10 Years) while Kenanga Managed Growth Fund was recognised with the title Mixed Asset MYR Balanced – Malaysia (10 Years).

The Hong Kong-based Asia Asset Management’s (“AAM“) 2026 Best of the Best Awards awarded Kenanga Investors under the following categories, Malaysia Best Impact Investing Manager, Best Impact Investing Manager in ASEAN, Malaysia Best Equity Manager, Malaysia CEO of the Year (Co-Winner), Malaysia CIO of the Year, Malaysia Best House for Alternatives and Malaysia Best ESG Engagement Initiative.

At the AAM ETF Awards 2026, Kenanga Investors received an accolade under the category Malaysia Leverage and Inverse ETF of the Year for the Kenanga KLCI Daily 1x Inverse ETF. The IFN Investor Awards 2025 awarded the Kenanga Islamic Balanced Fund under the categories of “IFN Investor Best Balanced Mixed Assets Fund in Malaysia — MYR 2025”, “IFN Investor Best Balanced Mixed Assets Fund in Asia Pacific 2025”, and “IFN Investor Best Global Balanced Mixed Assets Fund 2025”.

The FPAM Financial Planning Leadership Award 2025 presented Kenanga Investors with the Platinum Award under the Charter Member Category, highlighting our dedication to shaping the future of financial planning. The FSMOne Recommended Unit Trusts Awards 2025/2026 has awarded the Kenanga Growth Fund Series 2 with the “Sector Equity — Malaysia Focused” award for the fourth consecutive year since 2022. For the ninth consecutive year, we were affirmed an investment manager rating of IMR-2 by Malaysian Rating Corporation Berhad, since first rated in 2017. The IMR rating on reflects the fund management company’s well-established investment processes and sound risk management practices.

This Press Release was issued by Kenanga Group’s Marketing, Communications & Sustainability department.