Matein Khalid The fallout from the Moody’s downgrade is unfolding exactly as I guesstimated it would in my Sunday afternoon post. The 10 Year US Treasury note yield is now 4.54% and 30 year money is now 5.02%. So my 2/10 and 2/30 US Treasury note bear steepener strategy is oozing green – so far. Gold is also a classic haven from the fiscal Frankenstein that is […]
Global financial markets reeled on Monday following Moody’s Investors Service’s decision to downgrade the United States’ sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. The move, citing escalating fiscal deficits and a ballooning national debt, has intensified scrutiny over Washington’s economic policies and triggered a wave of investor unease.
The downgrade has led to a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 30-year bond yield climbing to 5.03%, its highest level since November 2023. The 10-year yield also surged to 4.55%, reflecting growing apprehension about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, while global equity markets experienced significant declines.
Moody’s action follows the narrow approval of President Donald Trump’s $3.8 trillion tax-cut package by the House Budget Committee. The legislation, which aims to extend the 2017 tax cuts and introduce new reductions on tips and overtime income, is projected to add between $3 trillion and $5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. Analysts warn that such measures could exacerbate fiscal imbalances and undermine investor confidence.
European markets responded negatively, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index falling by 0.7%, ending a five-week winning streak. Luxury stocks, heavily reliant on Chinese demand, were particularly affected due to disappointing retail sales data from China. In the UK, the FTSE 100 index dropped by 0.8%, while the midcap FTSE 250 fell by 1.3%, influenced by the U.S. credit downgrade and anticipation surrounding a UK-EU summit.
Asian markets mirrored this trend, with key indices declining amid concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook. The downgrade has also stalled the recent Wall Street rally, with futures dipping and the dollar weakening. Investors are increasingly wary of the U.S.’s rising debt burden and the potential implications for global financial stability.
The concept of “bond vigilantes”—investors who sell off government bonds in response to fiscal irresponsibility—has resurfaced. Analysts caution that if yields continue to rise, it could lead to instability in both bond and stock markets, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to intervene. Some foresee a scenario where yields could exceed 6%, posing significant risks to economic growth.
Moody’s downgrade aligns the U.S. with other major economies that have lost their triple-A ratings, such as the UK and France. The agency projects that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 134% by 2035, up from 98% last year. The federal deficit, currently at 6.4% of GDP, is expected to rise to 9% by 2035, driven by increased interest payments and entitlement spending.
Despite these warnings, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the downgrade, asserting that the tax cuts would spur economic growth sufficient to offset the increased debt. However, nonpartisan analysts and some lawmakers express skepticism, highlighting the lack of substantial spending cuts or new revenue measures to balance the budget.
The political landscape remains divided, with hardline Republicans advocating for deeper cuts to programs like Medicaid and the repeal of green tax credits. Moderate Republicans and some senators oppose such measures, citing potential harm to vulnerable populations and the broader economy. The proposed cuts could result in 8.6 million people losing Medicaid coverage, raising concerns about the social impact of fiscal austerity.
By Nantoo Banerjee It may be good that the latest armed conflict between India and Pakistan ended quickly before it could blow up into a full-scale war leading to massive destruction of life and property and economic disaster in both the countries – maybe more so in Pakistan than in India. However, the abrupt end […]
Dubai’s real estate sector, having witnessed a remarkable 70 percent surge in property values over four years, is increasingly attracting the attention of major Wall Street investors, signalling a fresh wave of international capital flowing into the market. Among those showing strong interest is Brookfield Corp., a prominent global asset manager, which is reportedly considering a significant residential project in the Dubai Hills district. This potential move marks Brookfield’s first foray into the region’s residential property market, highlighting confidence in Dubai’s continued urban growth and economic resilience.
The Dubai Hills area, known for its integrated community developments blending residential, commercial, and leisure spaces, has become a prime target for investors aiming to capitalise on the emirate’s strategic location and expanding infrastructure. Brookfield’s plans reportedly focus on creating a mixed-use community, aligning with the city’s broader vision of enhancing livability and attracting diverse demographics including expatriates, business professionals, and families. This development would add to the already dynamic residential landscape that has benefitted from Dubai’s liberal property ownership laws and tax-friendly environment.
Singapore-based Temasek Holdings Pte., through one of its property management subsidiaries, is also actively scouting investment opportunities in Dubai, reflecting growing confidence from Asian institutional investors. Temasek’s involvement would bring considerable financial firepower and experience in managing large-scale real estate assets, further validating Dubai’s position as a regional hub for property investment. The company is reportedly assessing a range of options from commercial towers to high-end residential complexes, keen on leveraging Dubai’s status as a global financial and tourism centre.
The surge in property values has been driven by a confluence of factors including Dubai’s rapid economic diversification away from oil dependence, the government’s successful rollout of major infrastructure projects, and the city’s appeal as a safe haven for wealth amid geopolitical uncertainties. The Expo 2020 event, although delayed to 2021 due to the pandemic, had a notable impact in energising the real estate market, with sustained interest seen in areas like Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai, and Palm Jumeirah.
Experts suggest that Dubai’s regulatory framework, which includes long-term visas for property investors and entrepreneurs, has created an inviting climate for foreign capital. This has been complemented by a steady increase in expatriate population, fostering demand for rental properties and driving rental yields. The UAE’s ongoing focus on enhancing its financial services sector and promoting innovation and technology hubs further supports long-term real estate demand.
Despite the enthusiasm, the market is not without challenges. Some analysts caution that the sharp rise in prices over a short period raises concerns about affordability and potential market overheating. The post-pandemic recovery phase has also exposed vulnerabilities such as fluctuating oil prices and shifting global economic conditions, which could affect investor sentiment. Additionally, the emergence of remote working trends may reshape residential preferences, potentially influencing demand patterns in Dubai’s real estate sector.
Brookfield’s possible entry into the residential segment is seen as a strategic bet that reflects confidence in Dubai’s ability to maintain its growth trajectory. The company’s expertise in infrastructure and real estate investment positions it well to navigate the complex regulatory and operational landscape of the region. Industry insiders point out that such high-profile involvement could encourage further inflows of private equity and institutional capital, contributing to market stability and innovation in property development.
Temasek’s active exploration in Dubai also underscores the emirate’s rising prominence on the Asian investment radar. The city’s connectivity, free-trade zones, and business-friendly policies make it an attractive gateway for investors seeking exposure to the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia markets. Temasek’s investment approach, typically characterised by long-term value creation and active asset management, may influence the development of more sustainable and diversified real estate offerings in Dubai.
Market observers note that while the residential sector is gaining momentum, commercial real estate remains a vital pillar of Dubai’s property market. The growth of co-working spaces, logistics hubs, and retail developments reflects the changing nature of work and consumption in the post-pandemic world. These trends complement residential growth by fostering integrated urban environments that cater to evolving lifestyles.
Matein Khalid While I was not surprised by Moody’s decision to cut the sovereign credit rating of the US from Aaa to Aa1 since I have done my best to warn my friends in this post about the King Dollar’s vulnerable underbelly on debt/deficits, I am surprised that the credit rating agencies is willing to risk the wrath of Trump White House with this move. After all, […]
Canaan Inc. , a prominent manufacturer of bitcoin mining hardware, has been identified by Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer as a company with significant growth prospects. Palmer initiated coverage with a ‘buy’ rating and set a price target of $3 per share, suggesting a potential fivefold increase from its current trading price of approximately $0.60. This optimistic outlook is attributed to Canaan’s strategic initiatives in product innovation and global market expansion.
The company has been actively enhancing its product line, notably with the introduction of the Avalon Q, a compact, app-controlled home mining machine delivering 90 TH/s of computing power. This device is designed to cater to individual users, supporting a 110V home power supply, and is part of Canaan’s efforts to make bitcoin mining more accessible to a broader audience.
In addition to product development, Canaan has been expanding its operational footprint. The company reported a month-end deployed hashrate of 6.28 EH/s and an operating hashrate of 5.73 EH/s as of February 2025. These figures represent a sequential increase from the previous month, indicating steady growth in mining capabilities. Canaan’s self-mining operations have also been bolstered through partnerships, such as the joint mining collaboration with Luna Squares in Texas and the upgrade of mining rigs at Stronghold’s Panther Creek facility in Pennsylvania.
Financially, Canaan anticipates total revenues for fiscal year 2025 to range between $900 million and $1.1 billion, reflecting improved market demand and cost optimizations. The company also reported a narrowed gross loss for the fourth quarter of 2024, estimated between $10 million and $6 million, surpassing previous guidance.
Canaan’s strategic moves have not gone unnoticed in the market. The company secured significant orders from major players, including a follow-on order from HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd for 5,000 Avalon A15-194T miners and an agreement with AGM Group Holdings Inc. to provide 2,000 Avalon A15 Hydro Bitcoin mining machines, with an option for the customer to acquire up to 30,000 additional units. These deals underscore the growing demand for Canaan’s mining equipment and its strengthening position in the industry.
The company’s expansion into North America is a strategic pivot aimed at achieving a mining hash rate of 10 EH/s in the region and 15 EH/s globally by mid-2025. This move is complemented by the establishment of a localized team to explore partnerships and opportunities, as well as the implementation of new projects to solidify Canaan’s presence in the North American market.
Canaan’s commitment to innovation is further exemplified by its launch of the Avalon Mini 3 and Nano 3S Bitcoin mining heaters for home use at CES 2025. These devices combine efficient Bitcoin mining with home heating solutions, aiming to democratize cryptocurrency mining for individuals and expand the company’s reach to a wider customer base.
The company’s efforts are supported by a competitive all-in power cost of $0.04/kWh, which is considered industry-leading. This cost efficiency, coupled with the company’s strategic partnerships and product innovations, positions Canaan favorably in the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency mining.
Canaan’s stock performance reflects the market’s response to these developments. The company’s shares are currently trading at approximately $0.60, with a market capitalization of $361.06 million. The stock has experienced fluctuations, with an intraday high of $0.665 and a low of $0.5815, indicating investor interest and market volatility.
Greenlogue/AP Nearly 400 scientists and experts involved in the sixth National Climate Assessment were abruptly dismissed by the Trump administration, casting doubt on the future of the congressionally mandated report. The NCA, a comprehensive study produced every four years since 1990, guides federal and local governments in preparing for climate change impacts. The administration also disbanded the Global Change Research Program, which coordinated the NCA, and removed […]
Goldman Sachs is intensifying its commitment to digital assets, with plans to expand crypto lending operations and accelerate efforts in asset tokenization. Mathew McDermott, the bank’s global head of digital assets, has outlined a strategic roadmap that positions the firm at the forefront of blockchain integration within traditional finance.
The bank is preparing to spin off its digital asset platform, GS DAP®, into an independent entity within the next 12 to 18 months. This move aims to foster a more collaborative and decentralized ecosystem, enabling broader participation from industry stakeholders. McDermott emphasized that such a structure would better serve the goal of creating a truly decentralized platform.
Goldman Sachs’ investment in the digital asset space is substantial, having already invested in 11 digital asset companies. These investments span services such as compliance, cryptocurrency data, and blockchain management. The firm’s digital asset team has grown to over 70 members, including a dedicated crypto options and derivatives trading desk.
A significant aspect of Goldman Sachs’ strategy is the tokenization of traditional financial instruments. The bank is leveraging blockchain technologies and smart contracts to enable digital issuance for clients across debt, equities, funds, and derivatives. This approach aims to digitize the end-to-end lifecycle of these assets, enhancing efficiency and liquidity.
McDermott highlighted the benefits of tokenization, noting that digitizing the lifecycle of asset issuance not only improves operational efficiency but also increases liquidity by potentially bringing in a wider group of investors. He pointed out that fractionalizing products and offering them to a broader universe of investors could broaden distribution channels and concentrate more secondary liquidity.
The bank’s involvement in the Canton Network, a public blockchain network developed for financial institutions, underscores its commitment to blockchain integration. Launched in 2023 by a consortium including Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, and Deloitte, the network aims to connect disparate financial systems while meeting regulatory and privacy requirements. In October 2024, a pilot involving 27 market participants, including Euroclear and the World Gold Council, successfully tokenized gilts, eurobonds, and gold on the Canton Network.
Goldman Sachs is also exploring opportunities in the crypto bankruptcy claims market. McDermott indicated that the bank is actively looking at investing in crypto bankruptcy claims, viewing it as a strategic opportunity amid the evolving digital asset landscape.
The bank’s focus on digital assets extends to its own product offerings. In April, Goldman Sachs launched its first bitcoin-secured loan and executed its first bitcoin options trade, marking significant milestones for a major Wall Street bank. These developments are part of the firm’s broader strategy to expand its crypto product suite while adhering to regulatory standards.
Microsoft’s fiscal third-quarter earnings surpassed Wall Street expectations, propelled by a 33% year-over-year surge in Azure cloud revenue and robust enterprise demand for AI-driven services. The company’s stock climbed over 7% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor confidence in its cloud and AI strategy. Total revenue for the quarter reached $70.1 billion, marking a 13% increase from the same period last year. Net income rose to $25.8 billion, […]
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has concluded its investigation into PayPal’s U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, PYUSD, without pursuing any enforcement action, according to the company’s regulatory filing dated April 29. This development removes a significant regulatory hurdle for PayPal’s digital asset initiative.
The SEC’s inquiry began in November 2023 when PayPal received a subpoena from the Division of Enforcement, requesting documents related to the launch and structure of PYUSD. PayPal stated that it fully cooperated with the SEC’s requests. In February, the SEC notified PayPal that it had concluded its investigation and did not intend to recommend any enforcement action. Investigation With No Enforcement Action, The SEC drops investigation into PayPal’s stablecoin – Mitrade)
PYUSD, launched in August 2023, is designed to be fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, including short-term Treasuries and cash equivalents, and is redeemable at a 1:1 ratio with the U.S. dollar. Despite its backing and PayPal’s prominent position in the digital payments space, PYUSD has faced challenges in gaining significant market share in a stablecoin market dominated by competitors like Tether and Circle. Investigation With No Enforcement Action, PayPal Says SEC Drops Probe Into Its Dollar-Pegged Stablecoin)
As of April 2025, PYUSD’s market capitalization stands at approximately $880 million, representing less than 1% of Tether’s $148.5 billion market cap. However, the stablecoin has experienced growth in 2025, with a 75% increase in circulating supply since the beginning of the year, although it remains 14% below its peak supply of just over $1 billion in August 2024.
PayPal has introduced initiatives aimed at bolstering PYUSD’s adoption. On April 23, the company announced a new loyalty offering that allows U.S. users to earn 3.7% annually for holding PYUSD on the platform. Additionally, on April 24, PayPal revealed a partnership with Coinbase to enhance the adoption of PYUSD, aiming to drive new and innovative use cases within the cryptocurrency community.
The SEC’s decision to close the investigation into PYUSD without enforcement action aligns with a broader trend of the agency concluding several crypto-related cases. In recent months, the SEC has ended probes into companies such as Crypto.com, Robinhood Crypto, Coinbase, and Gemini, indicating a potential shift in the regulatory approach towards the cryptocurrency industry. Investigation With No Enforcement Action)
This regulatory clarity comes as PayPal reported strong first-quarter earnings, with earnings per share surpassing Wall Street forecasts at $1.33 and revenue rising 1% year-over-year to $7.8 billion. The company also highlighted the completion of significant share repurchase activities during the quarter. Investigation With No Enforcement Action)
Jollibee Group remains the sole Philippine-based company to be recognized by the prestigious award MANILA, PHILIPPINES – Media OutReach Newswire – 29 April 2025 – The Jollibee Group, one of the world’s fastest-growing restaurant companies, has once again been recognized for its commitment to fostering a joyful workplace culture. For the fourth time, the company has received the Gallup Exceptional Workplace Award (GEWA)—a prestigious global recognition given […]
Matein Khalid My idea of nirvana Xanadu and Lotus Land is an emerging markets strategy bull session in the Waldorf cigar lounge with two bros who can dissect the best money making ideas in EM FX, EM sov debt and EM equities in the dozen odd countries where we see macro fairytales and masala shorts in sectors/countries on the precipice of emerging nightmares from Brazil to Hong […]
Technology stocks surged on April 24, 2025, lifting broader U.S. markets as optimism grew over easing tariff tensions between the United States and China. Investors responded positively to reports suggesting that trade officials from both countries were nearing a compromise to de-escalate tariffs imposed over the past two years. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.5% to close at 16,012.34, marking its highest level in over five months. The […]
Matein Khalid The last time the U.S. Dollar Index plummeted 9% in the first four months of a year was way back in 1973, when Richard Nixon sat in the White House on the eve of Watergate, the October War in the Sinai/Gulan, the Arab oil boycott and a savage 40% bear market in U.S. equities. Last week provided a respite from the tsunami of greenback selling […]
Matein Khalid Gold’s spectacular bull market since its mid-2022 bottom at 1600, amid the most brutal monetary tightening by the Fed since the Volcker era under JayPo (now branded as a “loco” and a “major loser” by President Trump) has climbed seminal macro walls of worry. A surge in the US Dollar Index to 110 in Jan’25 did not kill gold’s bull run nor did tough love […]
Matein Kalid Only the poetic genius of an Irishman can do justice to the epic Big Boy sumo wrestling match in history – between Shogun Trump and Sensei Powell-san as panic spreads at the speed of light across the digital arteries of the global banking village. W.B. Yeats’s immortal versus echo in my brain – things fall apart, the center cannot hold, mere anarchy is loosed upon […]
Saudi Arabia has unveiled a $100 billion initiative, Project Transcendence, to establish itself as a dominant force in artificial intelligence and advanced technology. Spearheaded by the Public Investment Fund in collaboration with Google, this ambitious project seeks to transform the Kingdom into a global tech powerhouse, challenging regional competitors and aligning with its Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy.
Project Transcendence focuses on developing a comprehensive AI ecosystem within Saudi Arabia. Key components include the construction of state-of-the-art data centers, support for local tech startups, and the creation of employment opportunities in the technology sector. The initiative also emphasizes fostering collaborations with international technology firms to position the Kingdom at the forefront of regional innovation.
A significant aspect of the project is the development of Arabic-language AI models, addressing a substantial gap in AI accessibility for the region. This endeavor aims to enhance digital inclusion and literacy, enabling broader participation in the digital economy. By investing in localized AI applications tailored to Saudi Arabia’s needs, the project seeks to bridge the technological divide and promote inclusive growth.
The initiative is part of a broader strategy to reduce the Kingdom’s reliance on oil revenues by investing in emerging technologies and industries. By cultivating a robust AI ecosystem, Saudi Arabia aims to diversify its economy and create new revenue streams. This approach aligns with the Vision 2030 plan, which outlines a roadmap for economic transformation and sustainable development.
To support the growth of the AI sector, the Kingdom is investing in education and training programs to develop a skilled workforce. Institutions like the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology are playing a pivotal role in this effort by offering specialized courses and research opportunities in AI and related fields. These initiatives aim to equip Saudi citizens with the skills necessary to thrive in a technology-driven economy.
In addition to educational investments, Saudi Arabia is actively seeking to attract global AI talent to the Kingdom. By offering competitive incentives and fostering a conducive environment for innovation, the project aims to position Saudi Arabia as a preferred destination for AI professionals and researchers. This strategy is intended to enhance the Kingdom’s capacity for technological innovation and accelerate the development of its AI industry.
The Kingdom’s commitment to AI is further demonstrated by its hosting of high-profile events, such as the Global AI Summit. These gatherings bring together industry leaders, policymakers, and researchers to discuss advancements in AI and explore opportunities for collaboration. By positioning itself as a hub for AI discourse and innovation, Saudi Arabia seeks to influence the global AI agenda and attract further investment.
Project Transcendence also includes plans for significant infrastructure development to support AI applications. This encompasses the establishment of advanced computing facilities and the enhancement of digital connectivity across the Kingdom. By building a robust technological infrastructure, Saudi Arabia aims to facilitate the deployment of AI solutions across various sectors, including healthcare, education, and transportation.
The healthcare sector, in particular, stands to benefit from the integration of AI technologies. By leveraging AI for diagnostics, treatment planning, and patient monitoring, the Kingdom aims to improve healthcare outcomes and efficiency. This aligns with broader efforts to enhance the quality of life for Saudi citizens and modernize public services.
In the realm of transportation, AI applications are expected to optimize traffic management, enhance public transit systems, and support the development of autonomous vehicles. These advancements are anticipated to contribute to the Kingdom’s goals of sustainability and urban development, as outlined in Vision 2030.
Matein Khalid Thank God my macro instinct flashed a “get out” SOS in late February and I dumped King Dollar for Bonnie King Charlie’s British pound before New Year late last year and thus averted fate worse than death/Matty miskeen. My macro guardian angel now whispers a few subliminal ideas. One, Chinese factories shed 20 million workers last week and hiring is down 30%. So the youth […]
By Nitya Chakraborty Though there is a 90 day pause in Trump’s latest unilateral imposition of reciprocal tariffs on most of the countries, the trade war between the USA and China, the two largest economies of the world is in full steam imparting tremors in global trade and economy. Close advisers of Trump were expecting […]Matein Khalid “We went eyeball to eyeball and the other guy blinked” – JFK said about Nikita Peasantovich Shoe Bangarov after Stalin’s henchman in the Red Terror back down in the Cuban missile crisis. Trump has gone eyeball to eyeball with the bond market and Xi Jinping but only the Dragon Empire’s Emperor for Life has blinked while the bond vigilantes have gone berserk in the netherworld […]
Matein Khalid As I sensed a few hours after the NYSE opened on Liberation Day, the masters of the universe on Wall Street and the White House have knowingly ignited the mother of all Lehman/Liz Truss moments in the global capital markets. Like Shakira’s hips, my Bloomberg screen does not lie as it speaks to me in its ominous green phosphorescent flicker. The Volatility Index is once […]
Matein Khalid Thank God last night was just a manic Monday and not Black Monday, even though I saw doomsday options trade in the index futures market on Sunday night and the VIX was 60 at the open. This is 100% evidence that some major financial institution is in distress because 60 VIX is a 3-sigma event that I have seen only in 9/11, the GFC and […]
Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a United States recession in the next 12 months to 45%, aligning with a wave of revised risk assessments by major investment banks as escalating trade tensions and tighter financial conditions unsettle global markets. The adjustment from Goldman’s previous estimate of 35% reflects the firm’s assessment that a sharp tightening in financial conditions and heightened policy uncertainty will significantly hinder […]
SINGAPORE – Media OutReach Newswire – 24 March 2025 – The Work Project (TWP), the global luxury workspace provider, has marked its entry into the UK market with its first location to open at prime office tower, One Leadenhall, in the centre of the City of London. Leading APAC Flexible Workspace The Work Project to Open First UK Location Developed by Brookfield Properties, London’s new landmark skyscraper […]
