Articles written by
arabian post staff

Citigroup Inc. and Coinbase Global Inc. have announced a collaboration to expand digital-asset payment services for the bank’s corporate clients, signalling a deeper institutional embrace of blockchain-based money transfers. The partnership will first focus on facilitating conversions between fiat currencies and digital assets, including stablecoins, and improving access to on- and off-ramps for firms that move large volumes of funds.

The deal between Citi and Coinbase addresses a prominent pain point in global payments: the cost, time and complexity of moving funds across borders or between fiat and crypto systems. Under the agreement, the participants will work on streamlining pay-ins and pay-outs for institutional clients, simplifying the flow between traditional bank accounts and Coinbase’s digital-asset platform.

“With more than 300 payment-clearing networks across 94 markets globally, we see collaborating with Coinbase as a natural extension of our ‘network of networks’ approach,” said Debopama Sen, Citi’s head of payments and services. Brian Foster, global head of crypto-as-a-service at Coinbase, added that the collaboration “reflects our commitment to building the infrastructure needed for the next generation of financial services.”

Analysts view the move as part of a broader trend in which leading financial institutions are shifting from cautious observation of digital assets to actively integrating crypto and stable-coin infrastructure. Citi had already signalled interest earlier this year in issuing its own stablecoin and providing custody services for crypto assets backing investment funds.

Stablecoins—cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies—currently serve mostly trading and settlement within crypto markets. The new collaboration suggests an ambition to extend their use into cross-border payments, treasury operations and institutional settlements. In this case, the plan explicitly includes exploring mechanisms to directly link fiat balances to on-chain stable-coin payouts for corporate clients.

While the partnership presents opportunity, it also raises regulatory and operational challenges. Financial regulators have increased scrutiny of stable-coin issuance, backing reserves and the potential risks to payments stability. Traditional banks entering the crypto space must manage compliance, money-laundering controls and cyber security in new systems. For instance, a consortium of ten major banks—including Citi—are together exploring stable-coin issuance tied to G7 currencies, with regulatory oversight a key consideration.

From an operational standpoint, integrating digital-asset infrastructure into a global bank’s existing payments network is complex. Citi’s model involves multiple clearing networks and real-time settlement expectations; adding 24/7 on-chain rails demands robust coordination, governance and risk management frameworks. The collaboration acknowledges this by focusing first on institutional clients and later expanding to broader corporate use.

For Coinbase, this partnership enhances its positioning as a trusted infrastructure provider for institutions. The firm has made several moves to support institutional adoption, including acquiring technology to expand capital markets presence and forming strategies around tokenised credit products. By joining forces with a major bank like Citi, Coinbase gains access to a wide international payments network and the bridge between traditional finance and digital assets.

Market reaction has been positive; following the announcement, Coinbase’s shares rose, reflecting investor appetite for digital-asset infrastructure deals with legacy banks. For corporate clients of Citi, the collaboration means access to a potentially faster, lower-cost payment model that combines fiat and crypto rails and the possibility of 24/7 global transfers.

In examining trends, the deal fits into a pattern where banks are no longer sidelined observers of cryptocurrency innovation but active participants. As one executive at Citi observed, the financial-services landscape is changing fast, and institutional demand for real-time, border-less payments is driving innovation. That said, the extent and pace of adoption will depend on regulatory clarity, technological readiness and client acceptance.

Saudi Arabia’s flagship New Murabba project is poised to become a major investment hub, with plans to attract capital in technology, real estate, and construction sectors. Michael Dyke, the CEO of New Murabba, announced the initiative at the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh, marking a significant step forward in the kingdom’s diversification strategy.

Launched in 2023 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the New Murabba project is part of Saudi Arabia’s broader Vision 2030, aimed at reducing the nation’s reliance on oil revenues by fostering new industries and boosting economic growth. The initiative aims to transform the heart of Riyadh into a sprawling mixed-use urban area, poised to redefine the cityscape with a mix of residential, commercial, and entertainment offerings.

The project will cover an area of 19 square kilometres, positioning it as one of the largest urban developments globally. Its scale is unprecedented, making it one of the most ambitious projects in Saudi Arabia’s recent history. The new district is expected to accommodate over 100,000 residents and create hundreds of thousands of jobs in various sectors, significantly contributing to Riyadh’s economic development.

One of the key areas that Dyke highlighted during his speech at the forum is the focus on technology. The New Murabba project aims to integrate cutting-edge technological innovations into its design and infrastructure. The development will feature smart city technologies, including AI-driven systems for traffic management, energy conservation, and public services. Moreover, the project is expected to foster a thriving ecosystem for tech startups and established companies, making it an attractive destination for both domestic and international tech investors.

The project’s real estate and construction sectors will also play a pivotal role. With residential spaces, luxury hotels, office towers, and retail outlets planned, the project is designed to meet the needs of a diverse range of residents, businesses, and tourists. This focus on mixed-use developments aims to create a self-sustaining urban area, with a heavy emphasis on sustainability and green architecture. Additionally, the construction phase alone is expected to generate significant economic activity, providing a substantial number of jobs in the kingdom’s building sector.

New Murabba’s strategic location within Riyadh further boosts its potential as a central business and cultural district. It will be positioned in close proximity to key landmarks, including the King Abdulaziz Historical Centre and the King Saud University, enhancing its accessibility and making it a focal point for both locals and visitors. The project’s proximity to the King Khalid International Airport is also expected to make it a prime location for international businesses, especially in the tech and tourism industries.

The Saudi government’s backing of the New Murabba initiative signals a strong commitment to its diversification efforts. As part of the Vision 2030 programme, the kingdom is looking to foster a more sustainable and diversified economy, moving away from its dependence on oil exports. This development aligns with broader trends in urbanisation across the Middle East, where large-scale projects are shaping the future of cities and driving economic change.

The investment opportunities presented by New Murabba are expected to attract a wide range of investors from various sectors. For real estate developers, the sheer scale of the project represents an unparalleled opportunity. For technology firms, the integration of smart city technologies offers a unique environment in which to develop and test innovative solutions. Meanwhile, the construction sector stands to benefit greatly from the demand for infrastructure and buildings, with the long-term potential for growth in both residential and commercial spaces.

With the Saudi government’s push for private sector involvement, the New Murabba project is expected to be a catalyst for further investments in the kingdom. The involvement of international investors and companies will be crucial to its success, with the project acting as a gateway to other opportunities within Saudi Arabia’s growing economy.

The cancellation of the highly anticipated initial public offering by UAE-based classifieds giant Dubizzle has raised serious concerns about the current state of the Middle East’s equity capital markets. Once viewed as a promising player in the region’s IPO landscape, Dubizzle’s decision to abandon its listing highlights the significant challenges the Middle East faces in generating investor confidence after a year of lacklustre aftermarket performance.

Dubizzle’s IPO was set to value the company at approximately US$2 billion, a deal that was initially expected to attract substantial interest from both regional and international investors. However, a series of setbacks, including a sharp downturn in market conditions, led to its eventual abandonment. “It’s a complete disaster for the region,” remarked a UAE-based investor, underscoring the gravity of the situation. This sentiment is echoed by many analysts who point to the stark contrast between the current climate and the boom years that saw the Middle East emerge as a dominant force in EMEA ECM.

The UAE’s IPO market has long been a significant player in the regional capital markets. Over the last few years, the area had enjoyed strong performances from listings such as the floatation of ADNOC Drilling and Dubai’s top retail operator, EMIRATES NBD. These successes painted a rosy picture of the region as a flourishing hub for high-profile public offerings. However, 2024’s market performance has been far from reflective of that growth. The Dubizzle setback is just the latest in a series of underwhelming IPO results, a trend that analysts attribute to a combination of factors, including investor caution, regional political instability, and global market headwinds.

Investor sentiment had already been fragile due to the underperformance of several high-profile companies post-IPO. Notably, Talabat, the online delivery service, saw its stock plunge nearly 40% from its initial issue price, while construction giant Alec Holdings also experienced significant losses. Both companies, initially thought to be solid IPO candidates, have fallen victim to what some analysts are calling an “overheated market” in 2023, where optimism led to inflated valuations. These negative outcomes have made investors more reluctant to engage in new listings, further dampening the appeal of subsequent IPOs, including Dubizzle.

Market observers point out that the combination of volatile regional economic conditions, which include oil price fluctuations and rising inflation, has contributed to a cautious outlook. The global economic environment, particularly in Europe and the United States, also has ripple effects in emerging markets like the UAE, with rising interest rates and a slowing global economy compounding investor fears of weak returns. These external pressures have combined with a tightening regulatory environment in the region, adding to the difficulties of orchestrating a successful IPO.

As the region grapples with these challenges, many are questioning whether the Middle East’s ECM sector can regain its former momentum. The last few years witnessed an influx of private equity and venture capital investments into the region’s tech startups, which fueled expectations that these companies would eventually go public and bolster the stock market. However, the persistent volatility and failure of IPOs to deliver on their promise have now raised doubts over whether such investments will yield the expected returns.

The Ministry of Finance has introduced the “Retail Sukuk” programme enabling citizens and residents to purchase government-backed Treasury Sukuk via participating banks with a minimum investment of AED 4,000. The first bank partner will be announced on 3 November 2025.

The move directly expands access to sovereign Islamic finance instruments previously reserved for institutional investors. According to the announcement, the scheme permits investment in Shariah-compliant Islamic treasury securities through fractionalised digital platforms operated by the banks. Leader Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum described the initiative as “translating our leadership’s vision of empowering individuals, promoting a culture of saving and developing government investment instruments that enhance individual participation in economic growth and provide a direct opportunity to contribute to the national development journey.”

The initiative aligns with the nation’s financial-inclusion agenda and the strategy to deepen local capital markets. By lowering the threshold to AED 4,000, the scheme reduces entry barriers for retail investors and broadens the investor base for the domestic sovereign debt market. Analysts point out that universal access to such instruments represents a structural shift in how governments engage with individual savers.

Industry experts say this development reflects emerging trends in the Gulf’s Islamic finance sector, particularly the fractionalisation and tokenisation of Sukuk products. A legal-advisory report on the Gulf Cooperation Council’s Sukuk market noted that digital platforms and smaller tickets are “redefining how Sharia-compliant capital is structured, distributed and accessed.” The Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank earlier launched a “Smart Sukuk” platform allowing retail investment from about USD 1,000 in fractionalised Sukuk.

Governance stakeholders emphasise that the retail programme remains denominated in dirhams and linked to sovereign-backed Sukuk already traded in the market, ensuring exposure to high-quality government assets rather than untested structures. The Ministry reaffirmed that the rollout will follow the “highest standards of transparency and quality.”

Financial institutions stand to benefit from expanded customer-base growth and increased assets under management, while retail investors gain a compliant savings vehicle offering diversification beyond deposits and conventional investments. Yet risks remain. While sovereign-backed, Sukuk carry credit, liquidity and market-risk dimensions; beginners may require enhanced education around profit-sharing-based returns, Shariah-compliance nuances and secondary-market liquidity.

Some market participants caution that the success of the scheme will depend on the secondary-market functioning and investor confidence in digital platforms. Previous fractional-Sukuk roll-outs in the region flagged the need for robust regulatory oversight, clear smart-contract frameworks, and standardised product terms to build long-term participation.

A partnership between the investment firm Orion Resource Partners, the U. S. International Development Finance Corporation and sovereign investor ADQ has launched a major critical-minerals fund, mobilising an initial $1.8 billion in capital with a target of up to $5 billion to support supply-chain development of essential raw materials. The initiative, known as the Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, aims to invest in and scale near-term producing assets for minerals such as copper, cobalt and rare earths, in line with partner-government industrial and security goals. The DFC has confirmed its cornerstone commitment, matched by funds managed by Orion and ADQ, creating the foundation of the expanding pool of capital.

The fund emerges amid heightened concern in Washington over the concentration of critical-minerals processing in rival economies and the lag in Western investment, with deferred permitting, falling ore grades and decelerating mine-development pipelines cited as systemic pressures. Orion, which manages around $8 billion in assets and has global mining-finance experience, brings its platform into the consortium, while ADQ’s prior joint venture with Orion—announced earlier this year for $1.2 billion—provides a blueprint for the strategic partnership. The fresh consortium will prioritise assets capable of delivering supply within a shorter timeframe rather than frontier exploration, signalling a shift towards faster-payback, lower-development-risk opportunities.

The strategic calculus ties directly into U. S. national-security and industrial-policy ambitions. “Securing critical minerals is a paramount matter of U. S. strategic interest and economic prosperity,” said DFC CEO Ben Black. Orion founder and CEO Oskar Lewnowski described the consortium as a “bridge” between emerging-market production jurisdictions and advanced-manufacturing demand in the U. S. and among allies. The fund will focus on eligible jurisdictions for DFC investment and will integrate production, processing and offtake structures.

The $1.8 billion commitment represents the current scale of the vehicle, with Orion CMC envisaged to grow further as aligned investors join. Observers note that while the headline target is $5 billion, execution will depend on securing suitable assets, navigating permitting and securing host-nation partnerships. The model mirrors the earlier ADQ-Orion joint venture launched in January, which committed to deploy $1.2 billion over its first four years across metals-and-mining investments in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

For Orion and ADQ, this represents an expansion of their earlier alliance: the Abu Dhabi-based JV served both to secure long-term resource links and to align with ADQ’s infrastructure-and-critical-minerals cluster. For the U. S., the consortium marks one of the largest private-sector-linked initiatives in the critical-minerals domain, aligning DFC’s mandate of mobilising private capital abroad with the administration’s aim to reduce strategic vulnerabilities in supply chains.

Challenges remain. Mining projects are long-horizon endeavours, and merely committing funds does not guarantee results. Host-country regulatory regimes, permitting timelines, environmental and social governance constraints and market-price volatility all play roles in investment outcomes. Industry analysts caution that while the push for supply-chain resilience is timely, the gap between intent and delivery is sizeable. Even with $5 billion in capital, global demand for some critical minerals is projected to outstrip supply capacity.

Operationally, the consortium’s emphasis on “existing or near-term producing assets” rather than early-stage exploration is intended to accelerate results and mitigate development risk. That strategy reflects frustration in industry circles with projects that take a decade or more to bring into production. The presence of sovereign-wealth capital, allied-government backing and private-sector mining-finance expertise may create a differentiated pathway for this fund compared with earlier, traditional mining-investment funds.

Global oil prices climbed sharply following new sanctions targeting Russia’s major producers, underscoring how geopolitical risk is once again reshaping the energy sector. The United States moved to impose measures against Rosneft and Lukoil, companies that together account for roughly half of Russia’s oil production. The measures froze U. S. assets of the companies, barred American business dealings and threatened secondary penalties for third-party entities dealing with them.

The immediate market reaction was decisive. Brent crude rose by about 5.7 per cent after the announcement, while U. S. futures recorded their most significant one-day jump in over four months. Supply concerns and uncertainty around the disruption of Russian flows have added a new premium to oil prices. Some analysts describe this as the return of the “geopolitical risk premium” that had subsided earlier this year.

Key dynamics are emerging in the global energy landscape. One of them is the pressure on refineries in China and India that have heavily relied on Russian crude. With sanctions threatening secondary penalties, buyers are reconsidering their linkages. The ramifications extend beyond immediate flows: Russia’s ability to route crude via its so-called ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers and opaque trading chains may be challenged further, complicating its export capacity.

From the Russian side, President Vladimir Putin described the U. S. move as “unfriendly” and warned it could backfire by pushing up global oil costs. However, Moscow also signalled that production would continue, and previous sanctions have not immediately led to a collapse in output, suggesting resilience and adaptation persist in the Russian energy sector.

For the buyer nations, the calculus is shifting. Indian and Chinese refineries, which have depended on discounted Russian grades, now face the risk of being cut off from Western-dollar financing, insurance and shipping links if they flout U. S. rules. The potential loss of Russian supply at discount could create a scramble for alternative sources. Meanwhile, Russia may turn more aggressively towards friendly states or deepen barter trade, but such shifts would likely come with higher costs and logistical complexity. Analysts argue that the global spare capacity outside OPEC is already thin, so any reduction in Russian supply could tighten the market further.

In financial markets the impact is tangible. Energy stocks in Europe rose alongside oil prices, while Russian stock indices registered losses on the back of sanction pressure. Firms in the Asia-Pacific region with exposure to Russian crude may face heightened risk premiums or supply disruptions. The confluence of sanctions and market reactions underscores how inter-linked energy flows, geopolitics and financial exposure have become.

On the structural front, situation highlights the ongoing challenge of sanction enforcement. The U. S. Treasury and allied agencies are increasingly focusing not just on Russia’s producers but the broader ecosystem: shipping, insurance, finance. The effectiveness of these measures depends upon the willingness of non-U. S. players to comply and the ability of Russia to create work-arounds through alternative trade routes. The efficiency of existing infrastructure, the cost of shipping to farther markets, and the reliability of insurance all factor into how quickly Russian production or exports may come under strain.

Dubai-based investment platform Green Dome Investments has signed a binding agreement to acquire the entire equity stake in cold-chain specialist Transcorp International for AED 225 million. The transaction is subject to customary regulatory approvals and is expected to complete in the coming weeks.

GDI’s shareholder backing includes SISCO Holding, the Saudi-listed infrastructure investment company that holds a 31.67 per cent stake in GDI. SISCO will contribute AED 75 million towards the acquisition price, with the remainder to be financed through equity from GDI’s shareholders. Transcorp, founded in 2013, operates across the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar and has built a substantial cold-chain logistics footprint, including warehousing, transportation and last-mile delivery for temperature-sensitive cargo in 50 key cities across the Gulf region, supported by more than 1,000 employees.

GDI’s strategy for the deal is driven by its desire to accelerate growth in the fast-growing temperature-controlled supply-chain segment in the Gulf Cooperation Council markets. The investment complements its existing logistics arm, Elite Co., which focuses on fulfilment, middle-mile and last-mile services, and will now incorporate Transcorp’s cold-chain infrastructure and expertise. According to GDI’s chairman, the acquisition gives the group a stronger presence in Saudi Arabia and positions it to capitalise on what is described as one of the fastest-growing logistics segments in the region.

From a financial performance viewpoint, Transcorp reported revenues of AED 60.8 million in 2022, AED 75.8 million in 2023 and AED 109.4 million in 2024.. Its compound annual growth rate across that period has reportedly been strong, reflecting rising demand in cold-chain services tied to e-commerce, pharmaceuticals and food-service sectors in the GCC. The acquisition therefore aligns with broader regional trends in logistics expansion, infrastructure investment under national initiatives and growing interest from institutional investors in supply-chain resilience.

Analysts note that the deal is part of a wave of consolidation in the Gulf logistics market, especially in niche segments such as temperature-controlled transport and last-mile fulfilment. By integrating Transcorp into its logistics ecosystem, GDI stands to enhance its service offering, widen geographic reach and deepen its customer base. However, risks remain. Integration of operations across multiple jurisdictions and alignment of management, systems and culture will demand careful oversight. The transaction’s successful execution will hinge on regulatory approvals, seamless operational integration and the maintenance of service quality levels which are critical in cold-chain logistics.

From SISCO’s perspective, the investment into GDI underscores its strategy of enabling portfolio companies to capture growth opportunities that bolster long-term value creation. SISCO’s backing of AED 75 million represents a material commitment and underscores confidence in GDI’s growth roadmap. The deal also reinforces the increasing role of Saudi institutional capital in regional logistics expansion, in line with broader economic diversification efforts.

For customers and clients in the logistics market, the enlarged platform that emerges from this transaction could offer more integrated solutions—from cold-storage warehousing and temperature-controlled freight to last-mile delivery capabilities—across multiple Gulf countries. That could translate into improved efficiency, faster delivery cycles and access to a broader network for firms in high-growth sectors such as e-commerce, healthcare and retail. On the flip side, the enlarged scale could bring complexity in operations and may put pressure on margins if the competitive dynamics intensify or if cost inflation rises.

Riyadh is advancing its push into artificial intelligence, sidestepping some of the previous fanfare around the massive urban-megaproject Neom, and signalling a new strategic pivot by its sovereign wealth arm Public Investment Fund. The fund is repositioning to attract global AI investment, deepen partnerships with major tech players and harness data-centre infrastructure at scale.

The kingdom’s leadership is steering resources away from grand construction ambitions to technology-driven growth. The newly formed Humain — a PIF-backed AI company — was launched in May with the mission of establishing Saudi Arabia as a global hub for AI. The firm plans to build advanced data centres, cloud services and one of the world’s most powerful Arabic large-language models.

Strategic deals have followed. U. S. chip-maker Nvidia has agreed to ship some 18,000 Blackwell chips to Saudi Arabia to support a 500-megawatt data-centre facility coordinated by Humain. PIF and international analysts say the move reflects a shift in focus: less emphasis on sprawling “giga-projects” of construction, more on the digital-infrastructure layer that underpins a future knowledge-economy.

Globally, transformative AI applications — from generative-AI language models to edge computing in industries — require vast compute power, energy and state coordination. PIF’s governor Yasir Al‑Rumayyan has said the kingdom is well-placed, given its energy resources and large-scale capital, to become a “hub outside the U. S.” for AI development. Analysts suggest the pivot acknowledges market realities: mega-cities like Neom have proved slower to materialise than envisaged, while digital-economy bets offer faster, more measurable returns.

The megacity Neom and its flagship component – The Line – have faced scepticism over timelines, cost-overruns and foreign investor pull-back. Executive reshuffles in Neom’s leadership and recalibrated investment priorities have signalled the shift. Meanwhile, PIF has begun trimming the proportion of its portfolio allocated to global investments — moving foreign-allocation toward 18 per cent from previous targets — to double-down on domestic strategic sectors like AI.

The investment case for Saudi Arabia is sizeable. Humain aims to tap into the Arab-language market of over 450 million people, while deploying data-centre capacity measured in gigawatts. Academic and industry voices say the kingdom has already built one of the strongest AI-ready physical infrastructures in the Middle East: multiple super-computers, data centres and training programmes are in motion. On the human-capital front, programmes to train 20,000 data/AI experts by 2030 are underway through partnerships with international firms such as Microsoft, Accenture and Huawei Technologies.

For global tech firms and investors, Saudi Arabia’s offer now centres around “sovereign AI infrastructure” rather than purely construction or real-estate play. The deal with Nvidia is seen as precedent-setting: Nvidia’s CEO told reporters that AI infrastructure is “essential infrastructure” akin to power and internet. Moreover, the shift aligns with the kingdom’s broader strategic framework Vision 2030 — which seeks to reduce oil-dependence and build a diversified economy.

Nevertheless, risks remain. Observers caution that the AI ambition is spectacular in scale yet faces operational and regulatory challenges — from data-governance to talent retention and ideological scrutiny. The push may also attract geopolitical scrutiny given the involvement of U. S. technology in Saudi infrastructure. The earlier mega-project model illustrates how bold vision can be slowed by delivery hurdles.

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has secured the richest place in regional mergers and acquisitions activity in the Middle East and North Africa market, advising on 24 deals worth a combined US$104 billion in the first nine months of 2025, according to data from LSEG Deals Intelligence. The firm’s Co-head of Investment Banking for the Middle East & North Africa, Jassim AlSane, said the growth was driven by “national champions … with significant growth objectives” and government-backed strategies.

M&A volumes across the region have picked up substantially, supported by sovereign backing and major consolidation efforts. According to LSEG’s broader MENA investment banking review, M&A activity hit US$66.4 billion in the first quarter alone, illustrating a robust trajectory for the region. The strong performance underscores an increasingly active market for deals even amid global macro-economic headwinds.

Goldman’s dominance emerged as national-champion companies in the Gulf co-led big transactions. These firms often benefit from state support and predefined strategic mandates that accelerate investment decisions. AlSane highlighted that the top-10 deals for the firm in the region were “underpinned by an approved strategy” and “government-backed,” signalling a close alignment between private investment banks and states seeking large-scale diversification.

Key sectors powering the deal flow include energy-transition assets, infrastructure, and digital platforms. Observers note that the MENA region is embracing its role as a growth frontier for capital deployment, leveraging both private and sovereign funds to consolidate industries and build scale quickly. In particular, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continue to push forward national frameworks that incentivise large transactions.

Despite the gains, the environment is not without uncertainty. Globally, deal volume has not uniformly increased — while deal value is up, the overall number of transactions in certain markets remains flat or declining. In the MENA context, some deals have faced delays or regulatory hurdles associated with cross‐border scrutiny and the need for state coordination. Critics argue that heavy reliance on government-backed mandates may reduce private-sector initiative and create hurdles in negotiation and valuation.

Goldman’s rise in the region also reflects wider trends in global investment banking. The firm posted a 42 per cent jump in investment-banking fees in the third quarter of 2025, citing advisory revenue jolts of 60 per cent year-on-year. While that data is global rather than specifically MENA-focused, it indicates that investment banking hunger for strategic transactions is rising and Goldman is benefiting. These elevated fee levels are the highest the firm has seen in years and point to a structural shift in deal-making dynamics.

Oil prices shot up by around 3% Thursday, driven by fresh US sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers and signs that major buyers are rethinking their purchases. Brent crude futures rose to approximately $64.53 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate climbed to about $60.39.

The sanctions, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, mark a marked escalation by the US in response to Russia’s war-time exports. The measures were accompanied by a US warning that further action could follow unless Moscow commits to a cease-fire.

A key knock-on effect: Indian refiners, including state-owned entities, have begun reviewing trade documents to ensure they are not sourcing crude directly from the sanctioned suppliers. With India having become one of the largest importers of discounted Russian oil following Western withdrawals, the scale of this review is significant.

The sanctions underscore a new risk premium in the oil market. Unlike previous rounds of sanctions—which largely constrained financing, insurance and shipping without substantially affecting physical oil flows—this move seeks to directly curtail output from Russia’s two largest producers. Rosneft and Lukoil collectively account for a large share of Russian crude exports and fuel the Kremlin’s budget.

Analysts caution, however, that while the immediate reaction has been sharp, structural supply disruption is not guaranteed. Russia retains significant production capacity and a sophisticated network of intermediaries and a “shadow fleet” of tankers that have helped maintain exports despite earlier sanctions. Nevertheless, the combination of curtailed Russian supply and potential reductions in purchases by major refiners sets the scene for tighter market conditions.

In India, refiners such as Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation are scrutinising bills of lading and cargo origins to ensure compliance. India imported roughly 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian crude in the first nine months of the year, predominantly via intermediaries rather than directly from Rosneft or Lukoil. The new sanctions give insurers, banks and traders until 21 November to wind down transactions involving the sanctioned firms.

The US move also dovetails with other sanctions developments: the EU approved a 19th package targeting Russia’s energy exports, including a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports and restrictions on shadow-fleet tankers. The combined effect is to intensify pressure on Russia’s energy supply chains.

From a market-demand vantage point, the worry is whether alternative sources can swiftly fill any gap. OPEC+ producers have some spare capacity but not enough to instantly offset a major Russian shortfall. Meanwhile, the US inventory situation added fuel to the rally: US crude stockpiles declined unexpectedly, reinforcing supply-tightness perceptions.

Energy-market specialists say the key factors to watch include India’s crude-import strategy, China’s stock-building trends and how aggressive Russia’s response will be—whether via production cuts or leveraging its ties with China and others. One observer noted the sanctions could be “a knee-jerk reaction” rather than a structural pivot, given Russia’s past ability to maintain volumes despite sanctions.

Purchasers of Russian crude face a growing compliance burden. Firms must navigate insurance exclusions, shifting shipping patterns and potential secondary sanctions from the US. Some refiners may opt to ramp up purchases from the US Gulf and other non-Russian sources, which could reorient trade flows and raise Atlantic-coast pricing.

Dubai-based Emirates NBD PJSC is poised to acquire a 60 per cent stake in India’s RBL Bank via a $3 billion investment, marking the largest foreign direct investment ever recorded in India’s banking sector. The move, announced on 18 October 2025, is structured through a preferential share issuance of up to 959.04 million shares at ₹280 each and is subject to regulatory approvals.

RBL Bank’s management expects the deal to close within five to eight months, positioning the infusion within the current financial year, according to statements made by the lender’s leadership. Emirates NBD will assume promoter status at RBL, gaining board-nomination rights and solidifying its long-term presence in the Indian market.

The deal comes as India’s financial sector registers a surge in cross-border deals, with total deal-value reaching approximately $8 billion from January to September 2025—a 127 per cent increase over the same period last year. For its part, RBL Bank, a private lender headquartered in Mumbai with assets estimated at ₹1.46 trillion and a customer base of over 15 million, will benefit from the capital uplift and expanded ecosystem access.

Emirates NBD’s group chief executive, Shayne Nelson, said the investment underscores the bank’s confidence in India’s financial services growth trajectory and reflects its ambition to leverage RBL’s domestic franchise alongside Emirates NBD’s regional reach. RBL’s managing director & CEO, R Subramaniakumar, described the alliance as providing “an enormous opportunity” to move from mid-sized to large-bank status in India, reinforcing its ambitions to enter wealth management and strengthen corporate and retail lending.

Under the terms of the agreement, Emirates NBD will first subscribe to a preferential issue up to 60 per cent of RBL Bank, and then launch a mandatory open offer to public shareholders of up to 26 per cent at the same ₹280 per share price. The final stake will depend on maximum permissible foreign-investment limits and minimum public shareholding norms. The Indian regulatory framework allows up to 74 per cent foreign investment in private banks, but typically limits individual foreign investors to a maximum of 15 per cent unless an exemption is granted by the Reserve Bank of India, which is reported to have given informal backing to the deal.

Analysts say the deal is transformative for both parties: RBL stands to enhance its capital adequacy ratio—projected around 40 per cent post-transaction—and may scale up its corporate banking, digital payments and branch network expansion, tapping into ties between India and the Middle East. For Emirates NBD, the acquisition consolidates its Indian market access and complements its existing footprint in the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey.

Challenges remain. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals in India and requires compliance with public-shareholding rules, which could complicate the open-offer structure. In addition, RBL has grappled with governance concerns in the past—its former CEO stepped down abruptly in 2021 following regulatory scrutiny—which means integrating under a foreign majority owner will require careful management of culture, controls and strategic alignment.

Observers suggest the deal may set a precedent for greater foreign involvement in India’s mid-sized banking sector, with implications for capital flows, market consolidation and competition. Brokers in Mumbai noted that the infusion of “confidence capital” into RBL could unlock higher credit growth and improve investor perception of the Indian private-banking sector. Meanwhile, the broader wave of cross-border activity, including Japanese and UAE groups entering Indian banks, highlights the shifting dynamics of the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor.

Riyadh — The inaugural edition of FIBO Arabia drew a total of 12,399 participants from regional and international markets to the three-day expo at the Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, signalling a notable step in Saudi Arabia’s push to define itself as a wellness and fitness hub in the Middle East.

The event, held under the theme “For a Strong and Healthy Society” and aligned with the kingdom’s Vision 2030 agenda, was conducted under the strategic partnership of the Ministry of Investment, the Ministry of Sport and the Ministry of Health. More than 80 exhibitors from around 18 countries participated, while attendees were presented with more than 50 industry-leading speakers across live arenas and conference forums.

One of the centre-piece announcements was the launch of the first Fitness Sector Development Report for the Kingdom, spearheaded by the Ministry of Sport in collaboration with advisory firm CAA Portas. The report projects the domestic fitness industry could expand to a value of SAR 15.5 billion by 2030, driven by policy reforms, investor interest and a growing consumer base.

International brands such as Technogym, Life Fitness, Keiser Corporation and Therabody featured in the line-up, underscoring the global interest in the kingdom’s wellness market. The conference programme included global fitness strategist Herman Rutgers and Morgan Stanley’s Alexey Naumov among its headline speakers.

Speakers and industry insiders described the event as a sign that the Gulf region is moving into a higher gear in terms of wellness infrastructure, investment and consumer engagement. “The success of FIBO Arabia’s inaugural edition reflects both the strength of Saudi Arabia’s wellness economy and the appetite for innovation, collaboration and growth across the industry,” said Vasyl Zhygalo, Managing Director of RX Middle East and Emerging Markets.

A particularly prominent feature of the expo was its emphasis on inclusivity and community participation. Female-led sessions and anecdotes of women athletes such as Nelly Attar — recognised as the first Arab woman to climb K2 — and Saudi fitness professional Rawan Al Saadi featured in discussions on access, empowerment and facility design. Meanwhile, event organisers hosted a variety of live arenas: a Performance Arena, a Strength Arena, a Tech Arena, a Calisthenics Arena, and a Group Fitness Arena powered by Les Mills.

Business-to-business networking and investment matchmaking were core to the strategy. The ecosystem included gym operators, wellness technology firms, nutrition solution providers and investors seeking access to opportunities in the region. One panel commented on how the kingdom’s younger demographic, rising female participation, and regulatory support combine to make the market appealing. The Fitness Sector Development Report cites private-sector expansion and policy reform among the key growth drivers.

Notably, the event’s timing and format reflect a regional pivot from traditional oil-led growth toward wellness, lifestyle and economy diversification. Saudi Arabia’s commitment to developing its ecosystem was underscored through both government support and the presence of global industry players. Industry experts observed that the applied technology, live experiences and cross-border brand involvement distinguish FIBO Arabia from earlier regional trade shows in the fitness sector.

Visitor figures of 12,399 set a baseline for the event’s future editions. The organisers have already announced that FIBO Arabia will return to the same venue from 29 September to 1 October 2026.

The UAE Ministry of Education has entered a new partnership with Core42, a leading company in advanced technological solutions, aiming to accelerate digital learning across the country. This collaboration marks a significant step in the UAE’s broader strategy to modernise its education system and integrate innovative technologies into classrooms nationwide.

Under the Memorandum of Understanding signed by both parties, the Ministry and Core42 will jointly focus on enhancing the digital infrastructure in schools, universities, and other educational institutions. This partnership is set to foster digital literacy, streamline educational processes, and introduce advanced technological tools that can significantly improve the learning experience. The Ministry’s initiative is aligned with its ongoing efforts to diversify and digitalise the national education landscape.

The UAE has been increasingly prioritising the integration of digital technologies within education as part of its long-term goals. The collaboration with Core42 comes at a crucial time as the nation works towards adapting its education system to meet the challenges and opportunities presented by digitalisation. By tapping into Core42’s expertise, the UAE hopes to provide its educational institutions with cutting-edge tools and systems that will prepare students for the future of work, which will undoubtedly be more technology-driven.

Core42, known for its innovative approach to digital solutions, will bring its wealth of experience in developing and implementing advanced tech-driven educational platforms. This will include custom-built software solutions, interactive tools, and data-driven systems that improve not only learning outcomes but also operational efficiency. The company’s work is expected to play a key role in addressing the increasing demand for online and hybrid learning models in response to evolving global educational trends.

The Ministry’s vision is to ensure that both educators and students have the necessary tools to succeed in an increasingly digital world. This vision includes not just integrating digital tools for learning, but also upskilling educators to effectively use these technologies. The partnership with Core42 will focus on creating tailored professional development programmes for teachers, allowing them to enhance their digital teaching capabilities. This approach seeks to bridge the gap between traditional and modern pedagogies, ensuring that both students and educators can thrive in an ever-changing digital environment.

The collaboration will also focus on leveraging data analytics to monitor progress, tailor curricula to individual student needs, and provide actionable insights into educational outcomes. By incorporating AI and machine learning into the learning process, the Ministry and Core42 aim to create personalised learning experiences that adapt to each student’s pace and learning style. This will be complemented by real-time feedback mechanisms, enabling educators to make informed decisions that foster student success.

The MoU also includes the development of digital platforms that will support a more interactive and engaging educational experience. Core42’s expertise in software development and user experience design will be crucial in creating platforms that are both intuitive and effective for students of all ages. The focus will be on ensuring that these platforms are accessible, user-friendly, and capable of supporting diverse learning needs, from primary schools to higher education institutions.

The UAE’s education system has been undergoing significant reforms in recent years, with a growing emphasis on integrating technology into learning. Initiatives like this partnership with Core42 are a clear indication of the country’s commitment to building a world-class educational infrastructure that can support its ambitious vision for the future.

Apparel Group and Arabian Alesaar Group have struck a retail alliance to introduce 24 international brands across more than 9,000 sqm at the forthcoming Al Shubaily Grand Mall in Saudi Arabia. The agreement positions the partners to capture demand in one of the region’s fastest-growing markets and expands Apparel Group’s strategic footprint in the Kingdom.

Under the partnership, Apparel Group will bring a mix of fashion, lifestyle, beauty and F&B brands including Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Birkenstock, Skechers, Crocs, Levi’s, Charles & Keith, Rituals, Tim Hortons, and Cold Stone Creamery among others. The range spans apparel, footwear, beauty and food & beverage, combining merchandise that appeals across categories. The deal is intended to dovetail with Saudi Arabia’s retail and tourism ambitions.

Apparel Group already has a significant presence in the Kingdom. It recently opened three new R&B outlets in Dhahran, Riyadh Gallery and Nakheel Mall — bringing the total number of R&B stores to 165 across the Middle East and India. The Nakheel location covers 2,500 sqm, making it one of the largest in Riyadh. The R&B concept covers men’s, women’s and children’s wear, footwear, accessories and home products. The expansion underscores the group’s goal of penetrating deeper into the Saudi market.

Chief Executive Officer Neeraj Teckchandani commented that the tie-up with Arabian Alesaar represents a strategic milestone in the group’s Saudi journey and will enable customers to engage with brands that combine global appeal with local relevance. He reiterated that Apparel Group is prioritising experiential retail, mall partnerships and omnichannel integration in its growth plan.

Market watchers see the deal as aligned with the accelerating growth of Saudi retail infrastructure. Analysts note that more than 30 new malls are in development across the Kingdom over the next few years, creating opportunities for global retail brands and investors. Apparel Group has earlier signed MoUs with mall developers such as Point and Mall of Dhahran to secure anchoring positions in new properties.

The partnership also reflects Apparel Group’s broader regional expansion strategy. The group now operates over 2,300 stores across 14 countries, representing more than 85 brands. It has been actively signing new labels in fashion, beauty, home and F&B segments to diversify its portfolio and diminish reliance on any single category.

Abu Dhabi’s MDGH GMTN priced a one-billion dirham Reg S five-year bond at par, carrying a coupon of 4.20 per cent. The issuer tightened guidance from an initial 4.45 per cent, and book orders surpassed AED 4.7 billion, not counting joint lead manager interest, signalling strong investor demand.

The unsecured bond is guaranteed by Mamoura Diversified Global Holding, with settlement set for 23 October and a planned listing on the London Stock Exchange Main Market. Fitch is expected to assign an “AA” rating in line with Mamoura’s sovereign backing. The issuance was led by a syndicate including Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Bank of China, Citi, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, National Bank of Kuwait and Standard Chartered.

This city-currency issue follows a $750 million ten-year dollar bond issued less than ten days earlier by MDGH, priced at about 55 basis points over U. S. Treasuries under the same guarantee structure. That transaction underlined the group’s growing presence in global markets.

MDGH is wholly owned by Mubadala Investment Company and plays a central role in Abu Dhabi’s strategy to diversify its economic base. In its 2024 financials, the company reported revenues of AED 39,528 million and a net profit attributable to owners of AED 37,376 million, with total assets reaching AED 596,168 million.

Credit agencies currently align Mamoura’s rating with the sovereign, with Fitch affirming an “AA” rating and stable outlook in late 2023. Moody’s and S&P assign comparable ratings of Aa2 and AA respectively.

Analysts note that the new issue shows how Abu Dhabi-linked issuers are able to tap demand for high-grade Gulf debt amid tighter global credit markets. The bond’s tight pricing and oversubscription point to strong appetite among fixed-income investors for Gulf credits backed by sovereign guarantees.

Gulf Cooperation Council states are positioning themselves to tap into the projected $2 trillion global sports tourism market by 2030, with a new PwC Middle East study underlining the region’s evolving role from event host to year-round destination.

According to the report Game on for the GCC – Turning sporting ambition into lasting tourism impact, the region already boasts world-class events such as the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar and a string of Formula 1 races, and now aims to leverage that prestige to build sustained tourism flows.

The global sports tourism market is estimated to account for 10 percent of all tourism spending and is expected to surpass $2 trillion by 2030. GCC nations are racing to convert episodic sporting moments into immersive fan experiences, integrated visitor journeys and continuous attraction pipelines.

Saudi Arabia is emerging as the region’s most aggressive investor in sport, with projections that its domestic sports economy may grow from about $8 billion to $22.4 billion by 2030—creating around 39,000 jobs and adding over $13 billion to GDP. The Kingdom’s Vision 2030 reforms emphasise sports as a diversifier of its oil-dependent economy.

Across the GCC, national governments, sovereign wealth funds, private investment and public-private partnerships are converging. According to PwC’s Global Sports Survey 2024, the Middle East now commands 24 percent of global sports investments, a notable shift in capital flows toward the Gulf.

To sustain momentum, the report argues, GCC states must go beyond marquee events and build a resilient sports tourism ecosystem. That means aligning infrastructure, regulation, destination branding, transport and hospitality standards—not just for big events but for ongoing seasonal and niche attractions.

Qatar’s experience is instructive. The 2022 World Cup is estimated to have generated between $2.3 billion and $4.1 billion in tourism spending and broadcast revenues, contributing $1.6 billion to $2.4 billion in GDP impact. But the challenge is to retain visitor engagement in non-World Cup years.

In that respect, the PwC analysis calls for “sport-led destinations” combining competition, culture and entertainment. The aim is to extend visitor stays, unlock repeat visitation and cross-sell other forms of tourism—heritage, wellness, sustainability and cultural experiences.

Women’s sports are emerging as a key growth frontier. In the GCC, 85 percent of sports executives expect double-digit growth in women’s sports revenues over the coming years. Investment in female participation, media rights and sponsorship is viewed as critical to widening the revenue base.

Yet several constraints loom. Many Gulf states rely heavily on imported talent in event operations, face seasonal desert climates, and must balance aggressive development with long-term maintenance costs. Ensuring accessibility, connectivity and visa ease are also essential for maintaining global appeal.

One forward move: GCC officials have greenlit a Schengen-style unified tourist visa scheme to allow seamless travel across member states—an effort aimed at boosting cross-border “bleisure” travel and strengthening regional integration of tourism flows.

Meanwhile, event diversification is underway. Saudi Arabia recently launched the Esports Nations Cup, with the inaugural edition slated for Riyadh in November 2026, expecting participation from over 100 nations and some 1,500 players across multiple titles. The country’s wider gaming and esports strategy is aligned with broader youth, technology and cultural industry goals.

MAF Sukuk Ltd is launching a US$500 million, 10-year sukuk under Regulation S, with initial price thoughts set around US Treasuries plus 125 basis points. The securities will be backed by Majid Al Futtaim Properties as the obligor, while parent Majid Al Futtaim Holding offers a guarantee.

The offering adopts a wakala/murabaha structure and is expected to carry credit ratings of “BBB/BBB”, aligned with those of the guarantor. HSBC is acting as lead structuring bank, with the purpose of the funding geared towards expansion and refinancing of property development activities.

Majid Al Futtaim Holding, in its most recent credit review, retains its BBB rating and stable outlook, reflecting its scale of operations and diversified asset base. Fitch affirmed the rating in November 2024, citing growth across revenue and EBITDA. Majid Al Futtaim’s internal guidance confirms that capital allocation remains within the thresholds consistent with its BBB leverage metrics.

Investors familiar with corporate sukuk in the Gulf region view the 125 basis point spread as moderately tight for a 10-year tenor, particularly for a non-sovereign issuer in the real estate sector. The parent guarantee is crucial to bolster credit comfort, given that the issuer is a property development arm.

In recent years, Majid Al Futtaim has deployed Islamic capital markets for its financing needs. Its 2023 green bond issuance of US$500 million was aimed at refinancing an AED 800 million bond commitment, underlining a strategy to blend sustainability credentials with its capital structure. The group similarly has historically issued hybrid capital securities and sukuk in its debt portfolio.

The latest sukuk will be listed via MAF Sukuk Ltd, which already carries a BBB long-term rating. The listing via a special purpose issuer isolates the structure from direct group operations, while the parent guarantee transfers credit risk back to the overarching entity.

Major risks for the deal rest on cyclical pressures in real estate markets, tenant defaults, and development cost inflation. Majid Al Futtaim Properties has disclosed in its base prospectus the possibility of cost overruns, land title constraints, and tenant concentration as material risks. The group also faces competitive dynamics in its markets where some rivals are state-backed.

Mohamed Futtah, a regional fixed-income strategist, commented that “a 10-year sukuk at T+125bp for a BBB group guarantee is ambitious, but could succeed under strong demand, especially from Gulf and Asia Islamic investors seeking yield in a rate environment that is otherwise compressed.”

Multiply Group, the Abu Dhabi investment holding firm, will acquire 2PointZero and Ghitha Holding via a share-swap deal, creating a combined enterprise with an estimated valuation of AED 120 billion. The transaction involves issuing around 23.36 billion new shares, lifting Multiply’s share capital from AED 2.8 billion to AED 8.64 billion and expanding the total shares to 34.56 billion. Approval from shareholders and regulators is pending.

The decision follows board sanction and aligns with a broader move by IHC to consolidate its leading portfolio companies—Multiply, 2PointZero, and Ghitha—into a unified listed entity under the name 2PointZero Group PJSC. The merger is pitched as an effort to streamline governance, deepen synergies across sectors, and accelerate growth. The transaction is slated for completion by mid-November 2025, contingent on formal clearances.

Under the proposed structure, Multiply will absorb full ownership of 2PointZero and a majority of Ghitha Holding. The merged entity will retain its listing on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange. With combined operations across energy, mining, financial services, agrifood, consumer goods, media, logistics, and related verticals, the new 2PointZero Group aims to harness diversification and integrated scale.

2PointZero brings to the table AI, energy transition, mining and financial services capabilities. Its role as a facilitator in cleantech and future resource assets is central to the logic of the merger. Ghitha Holding contributes a robust agriculture, food production, processing and distribution footprint—one of the UAE’s key players in national food security. Multiply already has stakes in sectors including mobility, media & communications, retail/apparel, packaging, and beauty.

Syed Basar Shueb, Chairman of Multiply, called the deal “a natural evolution of our portfolio strategy,” emphasising the aim to “optimise scale and strengthen the platforms we have built.” Samia Bouazza, Group CEO and Managing Director, framed the merger as aligning capital with megatrends, stating the unified entity would “grow bottom line both organically and inorganically, unlock value through AI, and deliver consistent long-term returns.” The new group will operate across more than 85 countries and target service to one billion people globally.

IHC’s own communications parallel Multiply’s narrative. The parent firm describes the merger as a means to craft a “next-generation investment powerhouse” anchored in a dual focus on energy and consumer sectors, intended to enhance operational efficiency and strategic scale. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, IHC Chairman, cited the move as reaffirming IHC’s role as a catalyst of transformation, leveraging AI and value networks. Sheikh Zayed bin Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Chairman of 2PointZero, said the consolidation would further the mission of driving energy transition, enabling AI, and empowering communities.

Davidson Kempner Capital Management has inaugurated an office at the Abu Dhabi Global Market, marking its first physical presence in the Gulf and becoming the latest global hedge fund to deepen its footprint in the United Arab Emirates. The new office will be led by partner Chris Krishanthan together with managing director Naveen Sabharwal.

The firm, which manages approximately $37 billion in assets, aims to tap deeper into regional capital flows and align more closely with sovereign and institutional investors across the Gulf Cooperation Council. Tony Yoseloff, managing partner and chief investment officer, described the move as a step to “further expand our investable universe” and strengthen “local relationships in a highly dynamic market.”

For years, Abu Dhabi has steadily worked to position itself as a rival to Dubai in financial services. Its strategy has included tailoring tax incentives, loosening regulatory constraints, and courting global asset managers to relocate or open branches there. As part of this wave, major hedge funds such as Brevan Howard and Marshall Wace have already established bases in ADGM; Davidson Kempner joins their ranks in what is being viewed as a consolidation of the emirate’s appeal to global capital.

The timing dovetails with a broader uptick in cross-regional trading. The CME Group recently reported a 16 percent rise in average daily trading volumes from the Middle East, with hedge fund activity surging nearly 30 percent this year. The firm’s commercial officers noted the region has become its fastest-growing market. Many attributers point to favourable time zones, regulatory allure, and close proximity to sovereign wealth capital as key drivers.

Internally, the ADGM office is intended both as a regional sourcing hub and a local relationship engine. Krishanthan and Sabharwal have previously overseen Davidson Kempner’s Middle Eastern investment activity, so the new base is meant to formalise and deepen ongoing operations. The firm describes its core strategy as rooted in credit and event-driven investing, spanning public and private markets globally.

This expansion comes amid headwinds in certain corners of the firm. In 2024, Davidson Kempner moved to shutter its Distressed Opportunities fund — once managing around $2 billion — as evolving market conditions rendered that strategy less compelling in a constrained restructuring environment. The firm indicated it would reorient distressed allocations into closed-end and multi-strategy vehicles.

Observers see the firm’s Abu Dhabi entry as both adaptive and opportunistic. By embedding itself in ADGM, Davidson Kempner seeks proximity to capital allocators, deal flow, and regional intelligence — all of which matters in markets where local networks and relationships often play outsized roles.

Competition in the region is intensifying. Abu Dhabi’s Lunate recently acquired a minority stake in Brevan Howard, launching a joint investment platform with an initial commitment of $2 billion. Regional investors have also targeted global fund firms for partnerships or co-investment models. That push underscores Abu Dhabi’s ambition to evolve into a globally competitive asset management hub, alongside regulatory hubs like London, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

The International Monetary Fund has lifted its projection for the United Arab Emirates’ economic expansion to 4.8 per cent in 2025 and sees 5.0 per cent growth in 2026, citing accelerating non-hydrocarbon activity and a rebound in oil output.

Stronger-than-expected performance in tourism, construction, trade and financial services is underpinning the upward revision. The IMF attributes resilience to the country’s diversified strategy and structural reforms such as enhanced trade agreements and sustained investment in infrastructure.

Analysts say the revision contrasts sharply with broader regional downgrades. The IMF now expects growth across the Middle East and North Africa to expand by only 2.6 per cent in 2025, constrained by policy uncertainty, volatile energy markets and geopolitical tensions.

Within the UAE, central bank data reinforce the narrative of dual expansion. The non-hydrocarbon sector is forecast to grow by around 4.5 per cent annually in both 2025 and 2026, while the hydrocarbon segment is expected to rebound more sharply—by 5.8 per cent in 2025 and 6.5 per cent in 2026—on increased output as OPEC+ quotas are relaxed.

When IMF staff visited the UAE in January 2025, they noted that domestic demand remained robust amid modest oil production, forecasting real GDP growth at about 4 per cent for the year. They projected that fiscal and external surpluses would remain comfortable, helped by elevated non-oil revenues and cautious fiscal management.

Still, risks linger. The UAE’s banking sector, while well capitalised, faces exposure to real estate, and high house prices pose concerns for asset quality. In mid-2025, exposure to property in banks’ portfolios stood at around 18 to 19 per cent of risk-weighted assets. A sudden shift in investor sentiment or capital flows could test the stability of credit markets.

On the external front, the current account surplus is projected at about 7.5 per cent of GDP, supported by stronger non-oil exports and moderating import growth. Liquidity buffers remain healthy, with international reserves covering more than eight months of imports.

European Commission officials are poised to grant approval to Abu Dhabi’s state oil company for its €14.7 billion acquisition of Germany’s Covestro, conditional on minor adjustments to compliance measures, according to sources familiar with the process. The decision could mark one of the most significant Gulf-to-EU corporate takeovers to date.

Brussels opened a detailed investigation into the deal earlier this year under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation, citing concerns that the United Arab Emirates might have leveraged state-backed advantages—such as an unlimited state guarantee and pledged capital injections—to win the bid. The Commission’s probe, initially suspended in September pending additional information, has now resumed as ADNOC submits remedial proposals.

In its revised remedy package, ADNOC has committed to removing language referencing the unlimited guarantee from Covestro’s articles of association and to preserving Covestro’s intellectual property within Europe. Sources suggest the Commission may insist on further tweaks before final clearance, but no major restructuring is expected.

ADNOC’s international investment arm, XRG, has framed the concessions as reflective of its long-term investor stance and asserted confidence that the proposals are “robust and proportionate.” The supreme size of the deal amplifies scrutiny—a deal described by analysts as ADNOC’s largest ever and among the biggest foreign acquisitions of a European company by a Gulf state.

Opponents and industry peers have raised flags about the competitive effects of the transaction. Critics argue that ADNOC’s state backing might have deterred rival bidders, distorting the playing field in Europe’s chemicals sector. Regulators collected feedback from market participants as part of the remedy review, a standard stage in EU merger oversight.

In September, the EU paused its review, citing gaps in the information submitted by the parties. ADNOC responded by accusing the Commission of issuing “disproportionate and invasive” demands. It warned such tactics jeopardised the deal’s viability. Brussels has indicated it will reset its decision deadline after receiving all necessary material. Its previous deadline had been 2 December.

Analysts suggest that the minimal expected adjustments reflect the Commission’s confidence that the core concerns have been addressed. Some believe that failure to clear the deal now would signal strained investment relations between EU institutions and sovereign-backed acquirers. Others caution that even small remedial changes—especially on governance rights or intellectual property handling—could materially alter deal returns.

Covestro, a leader in polymer materials, chemicals, coatings and adhesives, stands to bolster its growth potential under ADNOC’s ownership. The acquisition aligns with ADNOC’s drive to diversify beyond hydrocarbons toward higher-value downstream chemical operations. Yet the deal also pits strategic ambition against regulatory sensitivity—a balancing act now unfolding in the corridors of Brussels.