Sukuk Issuance Projected to Reach $200 Billion in 2025
Global sukuk issuance is forecasted to approach $190 billion to $200 billion in 2025, driven by monetary easing and substantial financing needs in core Islamic finance countries, according to S&P Global Ratings.
In 2024, the total issuance stabilized at $193.4 billion, slightly down from $197.8 billion in 2023. This performance was underpinned by a significant increase in foreign currency-denominated issuance and a drop in local-currency issuance. The stabilization was further aided by strong financing needs in core Islamic finance countries, the need to attract foreign capital, and improving global liquidity conditions, with major central banks starting to ease their monetary policy.
Local currency-denominated sukuk issuance fell by 14.6% year on year, primarily due to lower issuance in Malaysia, Pakistan, Turkiye, and Indonesia. The largest drop was in Malaysia, where government issuance decreased because of a smaller fiscal deficit due to the reduction of subsidies. Similarly, Malaysia’s central bank’s issuance fell as a result of tighter liquidity conditions for the Islamic banks as their financing growth continued to outpace deposit growth. Pakistan also saw lower local-currency issuance, as the government’s fiscal position remains under pressure and monetary conditions remain tight, as did Turkiye, where tight monetary conditions resulted in lower local currency-denominated issuance. However, local-currency issuance in Saudi Arabia resumed its growing trend as the government tapped the market with jumbo issuance and started issuing retail sukuk.
Conversely, foreign currency-denominated sukuk issuance increased significantly, rising to $72.7 billion in 2024 from $56.5 billion in 2023. This surge was mainly attributable to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Among GCC countries, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait led the way, with banks, corporations, and the government of Saudi Arabia stepping up their foreign-currency issuance, while banks and corporations in Qatar and Oman were also more active in this area. The United Arab Emirates ended the year with marginally lower foreign-currency sukuk issuance than last year. In Malaysia, performance was mainly underpinned by increased issuance by the International Islamic Liquidity Management Corporation and a couple of issuances by the central bank and the sovereign wealth fund. Indonesia’s higher sukuk volumes were due to the country’s increased sovereign issuance.
Fitch Ratings reported that global outstanding sukuk grew 8.5% year-on-year to $900 billion by the end of the third quarter of 2024. Sukuk held a large 30% share of the global debt capital market outstanding in core markets. In the GCC, the debt capital market is about $1 trillion outstanding, with sukuk holding a 37% share.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-basis-point rate cut in September improved financing conditions, leading to a rise in global sukuk issuances. Fitch expects rates to reach 4.5% at the end of 2024 and 3.5% at the end of 2025, boosting issuance activity in the fourth quarter of 2024 and into 2025. A further decline in interest rates is anticipated to support refinancing upcoming maturities and funding diversification goals.
Despite the positive outlook, risks to the sukuk pipeline remain. Sharia-related complexities, rising geopolitical risks, and oil price volatilities could affect market growth. Bashar Al Natoor, global head of Islamic finance at Fitch Ratings, noted that while there is a build-up of the sukuk pipeline partially supported by the recent Fed cut, these downside risks could impact the market.
In the first half of 2024, global sukuk issuance reached $91.9 billion, a slight increase from $91.3 billion during the same period in 2023. This growth was significantly influenced by a 23.8% rise in foreign currency issuances, which hit $32.7 billion by June 30, 2024, up from $26.4 billion the previous year. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Malaysia, and Kuwait were the main contributors to this increase.
However, the market might face disruptions starting next year with the adoption of the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions’ (AAOIFI) Standard 62 guidelines. These guidelines, which transition the industry toward asset-backed sukuk by requiring the real transfer of underlying assets to investors, could impact the market depending on investor and issuer response. Despite potential challenges, existing sukuk are unlikely to be disrupted as any changes in contractual obligations would require investor consent.
