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The Kospi closed 1.79% lower at 6,788.88, shedding 123.49 points and snapping a three-session advance. Samsung Electronics dropped 3.38% to 257,000 won, while SK hynix fell 4.45% to 1.653 million won as investors locked in gains following an earlier technology rally fuelled by strong results from Nvidia. Foreign and institutional investors sold a combined 2 trillion won of Seoul-listed shares, while retail investors were net buyers.

The retreat highlighted growing caution over valuations in artificial intelligence-linked stocks. Nvidia had jumped nearly 9% in the previous Wall Street session after delivering strong quarterly results and indicating that spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure remained robust. The performance initially lifted technology stocks across the region, but enthusiasm faded in Seoul as attention shifted towards interest rates and the outlook for global bond yields.

Warsh’s first keynote address as Federal Reserve chair at the annual Jackson Hole symposium became the central focus for markets. Investors were looking for guidance on how the central bank would respond to persistent inflation pressures and whether policymakers were moving closer to raising borrowing costs. Interest-rate futures before the speech indicated roughly a one-third probability of an increase at the September meeting, with markets pricing in a move by December.

Bond markets have become particularly sensitive to Federal Reserve communication after longer-term Treasury yields climbed amid concerns that inflation could remain above target. The 30-year US Treasury yield was around 5.2% on Friday after briefly exceeding 5.3%, its highest level since 2007. The 10-year yield stood near 4.67%, while the two-year yield was about 4.23% before Warsh addressed the gathering.

Elsewhere in Asia, market performances were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei advanced around 0.5%, supported by technology shares and inflation data that reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan. Tokyo consumer inflation for August remained close to the central bank’s 2% objective, keeping expectations of another interest-rate increase alive.

Taiwanese shares gained about 1.2%, benefiting more directly from Nvidia’s strong performance because of the island’s extensive semiconductor supply chain. Hong Kong shares moved slightly lower during part of the session, while mainland Chinese equities traded in a narrow range. The CSI 300 slipped about 0.1% at one stage and the Shanghai Composite edged higher, with investors also preparing for purchasing managers’ index data due next week.

Australia’s ASX 200 gained around 0.5%, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index advanced modestly. The Nifty 50 also moved higher as technology shares supported a rebound after two sessions of losses. Regional investors nevertheless avoided large positions as the direction of US monetary policy remained the dominant influence on risk appetite.

Currency markets were similarly restrained. The dollar index hovered around 99.1 and was on course for a weekly gain. The Australian dollar performed strongly after hotter inflation data led traders to reassess the interest-rate outlook, touching a three-month high near $0.72 and extending what was set to become a ninth consecutive weekly advance.

Oil prices provided some relief for equities after falling sharply during the week. Brent crude traded around $89.6-$89.7 a barrel and was heading for a weekly decline of more than 5%, partly reflecting developments involving Iran and Oman over administration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy prices eased one source of inflation concern, although geopolitical risks remained embedded in commodity markets.

Gold slipped towards $4,590 an ounce as traders awaited clearer signals on US rates. The broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan was little changed, showing how the powerful Nvidia-led technology trade was being offset by uncertainty over monetary policy, elevated chip valuations and higher bond yields.

The reserves increased by $12.42 billion in the week ended August 21, extending their rise for an eighth consecutive week. The latest accumulation pushed the stockpile above the previous record of about $728.5 billion reached in February and marked an increase of roughly $63 billion over eight weeks.

Foreign currency assets, which form the largest part of the reserves, rose by $9.48 billion during the week to $591.33 billion. Gold reserves climbed by $2.80 billion to $114.22 billion, reflecting valuation gains as well as changes in reserve holdings.

Special Drawing Rights increased by $112 million to $18.85 billion, while the country’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund rose by $26 million to $4.93 billion. Total reserves were $38.22 billion higher than at the end of March and about $38.61 billion above their level a year earlier.

The sharp build-up follows measures introduced by the Reserve Bank of India in June to strengthen capital inflows during a period of pressure on the rupee and heightened uncertainty in global financial and energy markets. The steps provided favourable foreign-exchange swap arrangements for overseas deposits and borrowing programmes, encouraging banks and companies to bring additional dollars into the country.

Nearly $73 billion was mobilised through the programmes between early June and August 21, with foreign currency non-resident bank deposits accounting for about $65 billion. The scale of the response prompted the central bank to bring forward the closure of the special swap facility linked to these deposits.

Deposits mobilised until August 31 remain eligible under the scheme, while banks can complete qualifying swaps with the central bank until September 11. Facilities supporting external commercial borrowings and overseas foreign currency borrowing are scheduled to remain available until December 31.

The programme allows eligible foreign-currency funds to be swapped with the Reserve Bank of India, enabling the central bank to absorb dollars while supplying rupee liquidity to participating institutions. The structure reduces hedging costs for banks and borrowers and has made overseas fund-raising more attractive at a time when global borrowing conditions remain demanding.

Banks have also stepped up offshore debt issuance. Union Bank of India returned to the dollar bond market this month after a 12-year absence, raising $600 million through three-year and five-year securities. State Bank of India and Bank of Baroda have also raised dollar funds, while other lenders have used international financial centres and overseas markets to secure foreign-currency financing. Banks collectively raised more than $11 billion through offshore bond issuance from June into August.

The inflows have helped stabilise the rupee after months of pressure from portfolio withdrawals, elevated oil prices and uncertainty surrounding global interest rates. The currency ended Friday at about 95.38 to the dollar, gaining around 0.3% over the week as dollar supplies increased ahead of the closure of the deposit window.

The Reserve Bank of India has continued to intervene in foreign-exchange markets to limit excessive movements rather than defend a specific exchange rate. Its enlarged reserves provide greater capacity to sell dollars when needed while absorbing incoming foreign currency when supply becomes unusually heavy.

The strengthened reserve position is particularly significant because India remains dependent on imported crude oil and other commodities priced in dollars. A larger foreign-exchange buffer can soften the impact of sudden increases in energy prices, capital outflows or global market disruption, although sustained intervention can also influence domestic liquidity.

External risks remain substantial. Oil prices have stayed elevated amid geopolitical disruptions, while changes in US monetary policy could influence capital flows towards emerging markets. A stronger dollar or higher US interest rates could again increase pressure on the rupee and other Asian currencies.

For policymakers, the surge in reserves also creates a balancing challenge. Large dollar purchases add rupee liquidity to the financial system, potentially requiring the central bank to absorb excess funds through other instruments. At the same time, allowing the rupee to strengthen too sharply because of temporary inflows could affect exporters and create greater currency volatility once those flows diminish.

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Arjavi Indraneesh China’s carefully constructed Gulf strategy is facing one of its toughest tests as Iran’s confrontation with the United States disrupts energy flows, threatens Arab partners and exposes the limits of Beijing’s influence over Tehran. The immediate pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic remains sharply below normal levels after months […]

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The yuan has gained about 3.6 per cent against the dollar this year, making it one of Asia’s strongest-performing currencies. The advance has persisted despite falling Chinese government bond yields and a widening yield disadvantage against US Treasuries, conditions that would normally encourage capital to favour the dollar. Strong export receipts and increased conversion of dollar earnings by exporters have instead provided sustained support for the currency.

Pressure intensified after the US and Japan intervened to strengthen the yen at the end of July. The operation marked the first coordinated action by Washington and Tokyo to support the Japanese currency since 1998, following a slide that took the yen to four-decade lows. US authorities had also alerted major banks to be prepared for possible intervention through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, highlighting Washington’s concern about excessive currency volatility.

The yen subsequently surrendered roughly half of its initial gains, but the intervention had broader consequences across Asian foreign-exchange markets. South Korea’s won, the Singapore dollar and the Taiwan dollar have shown relatively high correlations with yen movements, while several other regional currencies have been less sensitive. The spillover has reinforced a wider trend towards appreciation in currencies exposed to North Asian trade and investment flows.

For Beijing, the stronger yuan presents a complicated policy trade-off. Appreciation reduces the local-currency cost of imported commodities and can provide some insulation against inflation generated by energy prices. It can also create more room for monetary easing because policymakers need to worry less about triggering capital outflows or destabilising depreciation.

The cost is greater pressure on exporters at a time when foreign demand has become an increasingly important support for economic activity. China’s export machine has remained resilient while household consumption, property investment and parts of the private economy have struggled to regain momentum. A rising yuan makes Chinese products more expensive abroad and reduces the value of exporters’ overseas earnings when converted back into local currency.

The People’s Bank of China has appeared increasingly willing to moderate the currency’s advance. Daily yuan reference rates have been set weaker than market expectations at times, signalling a preference for slowing appreciation rather than allowing the currency to rise unchecked. China operates a managed exchange-rate system in which the central bank establishes a daily midpoint and permits the onshore yuan to trade within a defined band around that fixing.

The yuan traded around 6.75 per dollar on Wednesday after strengthening through the 6.80 level earlier this year. Exporters have continued selling dollars when the US currency rises, while central-bank guidance has kept the appreciation gradual. Market forecasts generally point towards further controlled yuan strength rather than a rapid revaluation.

The currency’s resilience highlights an unusual divergence inside China’s economy. Long-term sovereign yields have declined as investors price weak domestic demand and subdued inflation, while the yuan has strengthened because of trade surpluses and exporter dollar conversions. China’s current-account surplus has expanded significantly as manufacturing exports have outpaced imports and domestic spending.

That divergence could influence the timing of the next monetary-policy move. One scenario would see the central bank reducing its benchmark policy rate by 10 basis points to 1.3 per cent before the end of the year, using currency strength as protection against depreciation pressure. Expectations remain divided, however, with many economists anticipating unchanged rates through 2026 as policymakers assess inflation, financial stability and the effectiveness of previous easing measures.

July inflation data strengthened the case for additional support. Consumer-price growth slowed to its weakest pace in six months, while producer-price pressures eased, renewing concerns that deflationary forces could return if domestic demand remains subdued. Higher energy costs had previously reduced expectations for further easing.

Currency policy is also becoming more closely tied to trade tensions. China’s expanding manufacturing surplus has generated demands among trading partners for a stronger yuan, particularly as exports of vehicles, machinery, electronics and clean-energy equipment increase. A materially stronger exchange rate would weaken some of that competitive advantage but could also reduce political pressure surrounding trade imbalances.