By James M. Dorsey Fraught with multiple powder kegs that could blow up at any moment, Turkish-Russian relations constitute a study in the management of a new world order’s seemingly fragile alliances. Much like relations between Russia and China, Russia and Iran, Turkey and Iran, and Turkey and China, Turkish-Russian ties are fragile despite the fact that they, contrary to Western perceptions, are not just opportunistic and […]
Asia Young Designer Awards (AYDA) gear up for another year to empower young, budding designers of Asia Pacific SINGAPORE – Media OutReach – 19 June 2020 – Organised by Nippon Paint, the Asia Young Designer Awards (AYDA), will see its 13th year of empowering young, budding designers to be agents of change by creating a positive impact, through design, within their communities. Held annually, student participants go through […]
By M A Hossain Last couple of weeks, North Korea was showing an aggressive attitudes towards South Korea and finally on 16 June 2020. North blew up a liaison office set up as symbolic wage on South in Kaesong. Needless to say, this is a provocative activity to create pressure only on Mr. Moon Jae-in, who is betting on Trump-Kim negotiations where sanctions on North Korea will […]
Arabian Post Staff UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Mohammed Gargash, in a historic public appearance by a senior Arab government official before a global Jewish organization, today addressed the American Jewish Committee (AJC) Virtual Global Forum. Gargash and other senior UAE officials have welcomed AJC delegations on regular visits to the Gulf state for more than 20 years. “AJC has been a quite remarkable […]
by James M. Dorsey The Middle East is at a crossroads. The coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout confronts regional leaders with a stark choice: dial down tensions to open the door toward cooperation in tackling existential challenges or risk ever more aggravated political and economic threats enhanced by a potential wave of social protest. A second wave of the coronavirus pandemic is raising its ugly head. […]
by James M. Dorsey Rejiggering security arrangements in the Gulf may be a more pressing issue than meets the eye. That is not good news for the Gulf states. It is also bad news for China, which could see the rug pulled out from under its studious effort to remain on the sidelines of the Middle East’s myriad conflicts. China and the Gulf states are in the same […]
By James M. Dorsey A decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers like Russia to temporarily end a price war and cut production amounts to a time-out rather than an end to what is likely to erupt at some point in the future as a tripartite war. More immediately, the decision averts a significant deterioration in relations between the United States and […]
Arabian Post Staff In the event of another deadlock between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the desert kingdom is likely to suffer a bigger hit than Russia in an extended oil price war, according to Rystad Energy. Rystad feels Saudi Arabia will suffer a bigger hit in all five financial criteria: the impact on oil and gas revenues, fiscal breakeven price, fiscal deficit and foreign currency reserves, budget […]
Arabian Post Staff While the new low oil prices will test Saudi fiscal balances, they have the lowest cost barrels and with low debt can pull on sovereign reserves and take the pain, according to Chris Midgley, head of global analytics, S&P Global Platts. Crude fell sharply on Friday to test $45/bbl on the back of the failed talks and we now expect if to fall sharply as […]
Arabian Post Staff The International Air Transport Association (IATA) sees 2020 global revenue losses for the passenger business of between $63 billion (in a scenario where COVID-19 is contained in current markets with over 100 cases as of 2 March) and $113 billion (in a scenario with a broader spreading of COVID-19). No estimates are yet available for the impact on cargo operations. IATA’s previous analysis (issued […]
By Matein Khalid The US dollar is the traditional safe haven currency during times of geopolitical or financial stress even when the cause of a risk aversion spasm is ultimately American, such as the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008, Obama’s epic budget battles with the Republicans in 2011 and the Trump White House’s drone hit on Iran’s most revered Revolutionary Guard commander on 3 January 2020. […]
By Matein Khalid Thankfully, I was not in the global markets during the Black Death, the Great Plague and the Spanish flu pandemic but coronavirus cases have now crossed 40,000 infections and this is way beyond a local Wuhan outbreak. Despite the blowout 225,000 US January non-farm payrolls growth data, I am alarmed by the global recession SOS in the capital markets metrics I track. One, the […]
By James M. Dorsey A podcast version of this story is available on Soundcloud, Itunes, Spotify, Stitcher, TuneIn, Spreaker, Pocket Casts, Tumblr, Podbean, Audecibel, Patreon and Castbox. Saudi Arabia may have been getting more than it bargained for when authorities in Khujand, Tajikistan’s second largest city, ordered that the city’s largest and most popular mosque be converted into a cinema. The order followed the closure of some 2,000 mosques in the country in the last three years and the arrest last month […]
By James M. Dorsey Disclosures of taped phone calls between embattled former prime minister Najib Razak and a person believed to be United Arab Emirate crown prince Mohammed bin Zayed go a long way to explain Malaysian efforts to counter UAE and Saudi influence in the Muslim world. The disclosures are the latest incident in what have been complex, if not strained relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia […]
By Matein Khalid I had recommended buying the Tadawul ETF iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia (symbol KSA on NYSE) on November 30 to benefit from the post-IPO surge in the price of the Saudi Aramco IPO shares on the Tadawul. This tactical trade was a beauty even before Saudi Aramco shares soared 20% on its Thursday December 12 to peak at 38.7 Saudi riyals (SAR). As I expected, […]
By Matein Khalid I literally laughed when I heard that Goldman Sachs put a valuation range of $1.6 to $2.3 trillion on the Saudi Aramco IPO. One, a valuation range of $700 million only means the Goldie analyst bankers (deal promoters?) are clueless about what Saudi Aramco is really worth. Two, I cannot fathom how the financial markets will assign a valuation of 17 to 23 times […]
By Matein Khalid George Soros once observed “the big money in emerging markets is made when things go from Godawful to just plain awful”. So true. The point of maximum pessimism in an emerging market is often an opportune moment to accumulate its shares, ideally after a political, economic or financial systemic shock. I sold my entire Pakistan equities portfolio in summer of 2017 after the Supreme […]
By James M. Dorsey A public apology by a prominent Salafi scholar sheds a light on Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s version of ‘moderate Islam,’ his effort to shape the Middle East and North Africa in his mould, and the replacement of religion with hyper-nationalism as the source of his legitimacy. Claiming to speak in the name of the Sahwa or Awakening movement, Aidh al-Qarni, one of the […]
By Manish Rai Recent attacks launched by Houthis rebels on critical installations of Saudi Arabia has demonstrated a significant leap in their capabilities. The story of how Ansar Allah (official name of Houthi movement) moved from small-arms ambushes to medium-range ballistic missile and sophisticated drone attacks deep inside enemy territory in just half a decade illustrates that how an ambitious militant group can capture and use a […]
By Matein Khalid I had published a column in the UK/MENA press arguing that the Uber IPO was “absurdly valued” last week. I was vindicated with a vengeance when Uber priced its IPO at 45, well below the level Saudi Arabia’s uber-sovereign wealth fund PIF invested $3.5 billion in the hose of Travis (now Dara) three years ago. Uber opened on the NYSE with a whimper, not […]
By Arabian Post Staff Supply disruptions in the Middle East on top of an already tight crude market could send oil prices violently upward, according to Rystad Energy. Two Saudi Arabian oil tankers were reportedly attacked off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) this weekend, sending crude futures sharply up Monday morning. Commenting on the incident, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Head of Oil Market Research at Rystad […]
/By Matein Khalid/Are we on the precipice of another spasm of intercontinental contagion in the emerging markets like 2018, or the Asian flu, tequila crisis, Russian rouble default or the Turkish banking crisis in the 1990’s. Yes. The Shanghai Composite Index has plunged 12% and (17% fall for Shenzhen) since Trump got nasty on the tortuous US-China trade dialogue. The IMF cut its global growth forecast to […]
|By James M. Dorsey| Saudi plans to become a major gas exporter within a decade raise questions about what the real goal of the kingdom’s policy, and by extension that of the United States, is towards Iran. Officially both Saudi Arabia and the US, which last year withdrew from the 2015 international accord that curbs the Islamic republic’s nuclear program and imposed harsh economic sanctions, are demanding […]
|By S. K. Basu| Since time immemorial Afghanistan has been a flashpoint of human history in Asia. From the days of the reign of the erstwhile Persian Empire till the time of invasion by Alexander, Afghanistan has continued to see bloody battles that stretched into the Colonial Era and the period the Great Games between British and Russian Empires, World Wars, the infamous Russian occupation to the […]
