Merchandise exports rose to USD 220.12 billion in the six-month period ending September, an uptick of 3.02 per cent compared with the equivalent span of the prior year, while imports climbed by 4.53 per cent to USD 375.11 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 154.99 billion.
A key facet of this performance is that exports to 24 nations recorded growth, underscoring a push by Indian exporters to diversify markets beyond traditional strongholds. These countries span regions from the Middle East and Southeast Asia to Africa and Latin America, and collectively accounted for USD 129.3 billion, or 59 per cent of the country’s total exports in the period.
Despite this diversification, exports to the United States — one of the largest destination markets — slipped in September as tariffs imposed by Washington weighed on certain sectors. For the month, shipments to the US declined by 11.93 per cent to USD 5.46 billion.
Those opposing movements such as exporters point to the 50 per cent tariff introduced by the US on Indian goods from late August. The exports community says that while growth is evident in alternative geographies including Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, the US tariff climate remains a drag.
Within the group of 24 countries that posted export growth are the UAE, Germany, Vietnam, Mexico, Russia, Kenya, Nigeria, Canada, Poland, Sri Lanka, Oman, Thailand, Bangladesh, Brazil, Belgium, Italy and Tanzania, among others.
At the same time, exports to 16 other countries recorded negative growth, representing roughly USD 60.3 billion or about 27 per cent of total exports in the period. This reveals that while diversification is under way, certain destination markets continue to deliver weak outcomes.
Industry observers suggest that the strategic reorientation of markets has been accelerated by external pressures such as protectionist measures in key markets and supply-chain disruptions across sectors. One exporter noted: “The trend will continue in the coming months as well.”
Meanwhile, the Government of India is engaging on multiple fronts to sustain export momentum. Officials from the commerce ministry signalled that structural steps will be needed to strengthen manufacturing competitiveness and integrate India more deeply into global value chains. They pointed to raw‐material bottlenecks and high logistics costs among the constraints.
In parallel, trade discussions with the US are underway, aimed at reducing friction caused by duties and exploring possibilities for energy-and-goods cooperation. For instance, US officials have raised concerns over Indian imports of Russian oil and bilateral trade.
Another trend shaping export performance is the push into manufacturing sectors aligned with global demand shifts. The electronics and mobile-phone export segment, for example, has delivered strong growth: exports in certain months surged by as much as 39-60 per cent in year-on-year terms, signalling India’s growing role as a manufacturing hub for global brands.
On the import side, the widening of the trade deficit is partly explained by rising inbound shipments of gold, silver and crude oil, ahead of domestic demand spikes and festival season pickup. These pressure points reflect larger global cost dynamics rather than domestic export weakness per se.
Export diversification is also being viewed as a risk-mitigation strategy. The weakening of certain traditional markets combined with tariff exposure in the US has underscored the importance of broadening the destination base. Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia are emerging as focal regions.
Manufacturers and trade bodies emphasise that sustaining this diversification will require improving logistics efficiency, deepening downstream processing, upgrading product quality and securing better access via trade agreements and export-promotion schemes.
For exporters that achieved growth in the 24-country set, end-markets include consumer goods, engineering exports, pharmaceuticals, agro-products and electronics. Their performance demonstrates the incremental success of strategic investment and policy alignment.
Still, the fact that over a quarter of export value was derived from countries with declining shipments signals a dual challenge. Growth pockets exist, but structural weaknesses and external dependencies remain persistent obstacles.
