Global bond yields scale multi-decade highs
The US 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.16% on Friday after touching 5.2297%, its highest level since 2007. The 30-year yield climbed as high as 5.5319%, a level last recorded in 2004, before retreating as falling oil prices offered bond markets some relief.
Japan experienced an equally striking move. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 3.121% on Friday, its highest since 1996, extending a rise that has challenged assumptions about the pace at which the country can adjust to higher borrowing costs after decades of exceptionally loose monetary policy.
The surge came despite the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate this month. The central bank lifted the overnight call-rate target to around 1.25%, with the new setting taking effect from September 24, as policymakers continued withdrawing monetary accommodation amid persistent inflation pressures.
Bond prices move inversely to yields, meaning the sharp rise reflected heavy selling by investors. The moves have increased financing costs for governments and businesses and strengthened the transmission of tighter monetary policy into mortgages, corporate debt and other forms of credit.
Pressure has spread across major developed markets rather than remaining concentrated in the United States. Five of the Group of 10’s leading central banks raised rates during September, while others signalled possible further tightening or warned that inflation risks remained elevated. That broad shift has forced investors to reassess expectations that borrowing costs would decline quickly.
Energy prices have been an important driver. Oil’s advance during the Middle East conflict revived fears that higher fuel and transport costs would feed into broader inflation, reducing the appeal of fixed-income securities and increasing expectations that central banks may have to keep policy restrictive for longer.
Some of that pressure eased on Friday as oil prices fell roughly 3% amid hopes of progress towards a US-Iran truce. The retreat helped stabilise Treasuries and encouraged modest declines in some yields, but it did not erase the week’s dramatic repricing.
The scale of the turbulence was reflected in the ICE BofA MOVE Index, a widely followed gauge of US bond-market volatility, which jumped roughly 30% over the week, its biggest weekly increase since the tariff-related market turmoil of April 2025.
Federal Reserve policy expectations have also shifted. Markets have increasingly priced the possibility of further rate increases as policymakers confront inflation risks linked to energy costs and an economy that has remained resilient enough to complicate hopes for easier monetary conditions.
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points this month to 3.75%-4.00%. The combination of tighter policy expectations and persistent inflation concerns has pushed yields higher across the Treasury curve, increasing the government’s cost of refinancing debt and lifting benchmark rates used throughout global markets.
Japan presents a different but connected challenge. Rising domestic yields are changing the economics for investors accustomed to negligible returns at home. Higher Japanese yields can make domestic bonds more attractive relative to overseas assets, potentially affecting international capital flows at a time when US and European governments face substantial financing requirements.
The yen strengthened against the dollar on Friday as yields eased from their peaks, with the US currency falling to around 157.22 yen. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said currency weakness had been discussed during high-level talks in Washington earlier in the week.
Equity markets nevertheless remained comparatively resilient. US shares advanced on Friday, supported by renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence companies, while the broader global equity index also rose. That divergence underscored how investors were separating strong corporate themes from the pressure building in sovereign debt markets.
European bonds have faced similar strains as investors weigh inflation alongside fiscal risks. Earlier in the week, benchmark 10-year yields in Germany, France and Britain remained elevated, while France’s borrowing premium over Germany widened amid concern about its budget outlook.
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