By Nitya Chakraborty Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his long reply to the discussion in Lok Sabha on Operation Sindoor on Tuesday night skillfully avoided the issue of any mediation by the U.S. President Donald Trump by stating that no world leader told India to stop Operation Sindoor. His refrain was that Pakistan DGMO came […]President Trump has sharply shortened his own deadline for punishing buyers of Russian oil, catching markets off guard and forcing investors to price in a risk that had previously been dismissed. On Monday, standing beside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland, Trump announced that Moscow now has only 10 to 12 days to secure a peace deal over Ukraine. If it doesn’t, he says he will […]
Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa has secured a deal for Gulf Air to acquire 18 Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft fitted with General Electric engines, marking a departure from the carrier’s previous reliance on Rolls‑Royce engines. At a meeting held in Washington with U. S. President Donald Trump, the agreement was signed alongside a broader $17 billion suite of investments from Bahrain in the United States. […]
The U. S. House of Representatives has approved the GENIUS Act, the inaugural federal regulatory framework targeting fiat‑backed stablecoins, with a decisive 308–122 bipartisan vote on 17 July 2025. With Senate approval secured in June by a 68–30 margin, the legislation now advances to President Trump’s desk for signature, anticipated as early as tomorrow.
The GENIUS Act mandates that issuers—including banks, credit unions, fintech firms, and select non‑bank entities—maintain one‑to‑one reserves in cash or low‑risk assets such as U. S. Treasury bills, with mandatory monthly public disclosures of reserve composition. It also institutes anti‑money laundering controls, requires issuance organisations to obtain licences from federal or state financial regulators, and prohibits paying interest directly to stablecoin holders.
The legislation forms part of a broader “Crypto Week” effort in the House, which also included passage of the CLARITY Act—allocating oversight of digital asset classification between the SEC and CFTC—and the Anti‑CBDC Surveillance State Act, barring the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency. Both now await Senate consideration.
Advocates argue that the GENIUS Act addresses long-standing regulatory uncertainty, providing market stability and consumer safeguards within a $260 billion-plus stablecoin ecosystem. Senior figures from institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi, Walmart, and Amazon have reportedly expressed interest in issuing stablecoins under the new regime. Market sentiment reflects optimism: crypto‑linked equities and assets rose when the House vote was finalised, with Bitcoin nearing record highs above $119,000.
Nonetheless, critics highlight significant concerns. Consumer advocates emphasise that stablecoins remain outside FDIC protection and could pose redemption risks or obscure hidden fees. Others express unease over potential weak guardrails: the SEC’s Paul Atkins cautioned that regulatory innovation must still ensure sufficient market safeguards.
Ethics debates spotlight former President Trump’s extensive ties to the crypto industry, including investments in World Liberty Financial and a meme coin touted as generating over $300 million in related revenues. Opponents claim this raises conflict‑of‑interest questions and risks favouring Trump‑linked enterprises, though the White House has asserted asset segregation via a family trust.
In Congress, both Democratic and Republican proponents defended the legislation for delivering much‑needed structure. Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer remarked that introducing “some rules of the road” was preferable to having none. Opposing voices like Rep. Maxine Waters cautioned that the law might “signal tolerance for corruption” without closing presidential exemptions from conflict‑of‑interest prohibitions. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats, including Richard Blumenthal, criticised the bill’s failure to eliminate loopholes or demand stronger consumer protection standards.
Beyond federal oversight, the GENIUS Act introduces a layered supervisory model: federal agencies will regulate larger issuers and interstate entities, while state regulators handle smaller players—those issuing under $10 billion annually. The legislation sets out implementation timelines, including one‑year deadlines for rule‑making and an 18‑month effective date, with a three‑year transition period before enforcement on custody and transaction restrictions.
Industry stakeholders anticipate dramatic market growth. Scott Bessent, Treasury secretary, projected the stablecoin market could swell from around $195 billion to over $2 trillion following the GENIUS Act’s implementation. Christian Catalini of the MIT Cryptoeconomics Lab predicted fierce competition as banks and fintechs join traditional issuers with consumer trust bolstered by regulation.
The crypto sector, stung by past regulatory setbacks under the prior administration’s enforcement actions, now views the GENIUS Act as a turning point. Major players like Circle and Coinbase backed the measure after directing substantial lobbying resources toward lawmakers. Jennifer Nolan, head of the Blockchain Association, described it as a “defining moment in the evolution of U. S. digital asset policy”.
With presidential signature expected imminently, the GENIUS Act is poised to redefine the U. S. approach to stablecoins—ushering in regulated issuance, enhanced transparency, and heightened institutional involvement. Its progress also spotlights ongoing debates about market oversight, political influence, and financial stability in an increasingly digital economy.
Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa has unveiled a $17 billion investment plan in the United States following a high-level meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House. The announcement signals deepening economic and strategic ties between Manama and Washington, with deals cutting across aviation, energy, and defence sectors.
A key feature of the plan includes a contract worth approximately $7 billion under which Gulf Air, Bahrain’s flag carrier, will purchase 12 Boeing aircraft. The agreement also includes an option for six additional planes and 40 aircraft engines from General Electric. The deal was presented as a tangible outcome of bilateral discussions, reinforcing Bahrain’s commitment to US industry and technology.
Crown Prince Salman described the deals as “real” and economically sound, addressing scepticism often associated with foreign investment pledges. The statement, made from the Oval Office, was aimed at highlighting the financial credibility of the agreements. “These aren’t fake deals,” he remarked, drawing a sharp contrast with previously publicised but unfulfilled investment promises by other nations.
The Bahraini leader’s Washington visit followed a similar pattern to President Trump’s earlier engagement with Saudi Arabia, during which over $600 billion in US investment commitments were secured. Trump had also finalised a $142 billion arms agreement with Riyadh. Bahrain’s announcement is now being viewed as a strategic move to bolster its position as a reliable economic and security partner of the United States.
The investment plan is expected to deliver significant economic dividends to both countries. For the US, the immediate impact would be in job creation, especially across Boeing’s manufacturing facilities and GE’s industrial operations. For Bahrain, the plan strengthens access to cutting-edge aviation technology and helps modernise its national infrastructure in both civil and defence aviation.
The timing of the announcement also reflects the evolving regional security dynamics in the Gulf. Iran’s influence and the broader geopolitical situation were key discussion points during the White House meeting. Bahrain, which hosts the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, has remained a close military ally to Washington. The investment commitment not only serves economic purposes but also underscores Bahrain’s alignment with US strategic objectives in the Middle East.
Observers note that the choice of sectors—aviation, defence technology, and energy—signals Bahrain’s intent to link its national growth trajectory with American innovation and industrial capability. Gulf Air’s fleet expansion through Boeing jets and GE engines is viewed as a cornerstone of this agenda. Beyond the aviation component, additional investment is expected in energy-related projects and advanced technology, although specific agreements in these areas are yet to be publicly detailed.
The financial scope of the investment echoes previous patterns of engagement between Gulf monarchies and US administrations. Bahrain’s capital injection arrives amid growing competition among Gulf states seeking to secure American technological partnerships and defence cooperation, while positioning themselves as key regional intermediaries.
For President Trump, who had prioritised foreign investment in US manufacturing and defence during his tenure, the $17 billion figure plays into the broader narrative of restoring domestic industrial capacity through global alliances. It also fits into the administration’s push for balancing trade relationships and encouraging allies to contribute more significantly to US economic interests.
Strategic analysts have pointed out that the Gulf kingdom’s outreach comes at a time when regional alliances are undergoing shifts. Bahrain has been at the forefront of some of the Arab world’s diplomatic realignments, including its role in the Abraham Accords. The alignment with US economic and security goals could further consolidate its position as a trusted partner in American foreign policy planning for the Gulf.
Crown Prince Salman’s visit marked the continuation of a trend where Middle Eastern states use bilateral state visits to announce substantial investment projects. These announcements serve dual purposes: generating domestic political capital for US leaders while allowing foreign partners to project influence and economic modernisation.
Washington policymakers have signalled approval of the deals, suggesting that the partnership with Bahrain could deepen further in sectors such as infrastructure development, cyber-security, and military training. While the specifics of such cooperation are yet to materialise in binding agreements, the tone from both capitals points toward an expanding strategic partnership.
By Nitya Chakraborty India-China bilateral relations have started showing cautious improvement with the signals from both the leaderships of the two biggest countries of Asia that they are keen to restore normal political and economic ties. Indian external affairs minister Dr. S Jaishankar’s meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday in Beijing was […]M A Hossain Donald Trump once campaigned on ending the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. He promised to bring an end to the proxy war with Russia, leveraging his self-proclaimed ‘Dealmaking’ skills. Yet, halfway into July, what we see instead is a new escalation dressed up as diplomacy. In a carefully choreographed appearance with NATO Secretary Mark Rutte at the White House, Trump offered Moscow a […]
A tide of tariffs is sweeping across Europe, and the damage is becoming visible just as earnings reports begin to drop. President Trump’s trade decisions are no longer a future threat; they’re now a present force reshaping European corporate performance. The timing is brutal. What was expected to be a modestly positive second quarter for European earnings has shifted into decline, with weakness now concentrated in a […]
President Donald Trump has revealed plans to provide Ukraine with additional Patriot air-defense systems, a move aimed at bolstering Kyiv’s efforts to defend itself against Russian aerial assaults. The announcement, made during a public address, highlights the growing US commitment to supporting Ukraine’s military capabilities amidst ongoing tensions in the region. The decision to send more advanced missile defence systems comes at a critical juncture in the […]
Oil prices have shifted sharply this week, with demand forecasts now under pressure from escalating trade tensions fuelled by fresh tariffs. Brent crude is trading in the high‑60s per barrel, while benchmark WTI hovers around mid‑60s, reflecting growing investor caution. Analysts point to revised supply and demand projections as indicators of a changing market landscape.
An International Energy Agency monthly report has cut its global oil‑demand growth forecast for 2025 to 700,000 bpd, the slowest pace since 2009 outside the pandemic, down from 720,000 bpd last month. The downgrade reflects weaker consumption in emerging markets and a cooling US‑China trade outlook. Supply continues to outpace demand as OPEC+ ramps up production; global output in June rose by about 950,000 bpd to reach 105.6 mbpd.
The IEA notes the oil market remains technically in surplus, with inventories building globally—even as regional stock draws persist. Oil runs at refineries have slowed, particularly in the US and China, enabling downward revisions in demand projections. Enverus Intelligence Research offers a counter‑view, pointing to balanced OECD inventories and sustained summer demand north of 1 mbpd, which may support higher prices.
The US Energy Information Administration expects US crude oil production to plateau at roughly 13.4 mbpd in 2025, dropping modestly later this year as lower prices curb drilling activity. Despite this, producers remain vulnerable to profit erosion unless prices stabilise in the $65–70 range.
President Trump’s trade moves have reignited fears of another global trade war, with new tariff letters dispatched to Brazil, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and others this week. Threats of 50% duties on exports such as copper, semiconductor components and auto parts are weighing heavily on commodity‑linked equity markets and raising recession risk concerns. Oil prices dropped more than 2% on Thursday as benchmark futures responded to the potential hit to economic growth.
While some market participants remain in “wait‑and‑see” mode, given Trump’s unpredictability and history of policy reversals, the overarching effect is to dampen demand forecasts. Onyx Capital’s head of research, Harry Tchilinguirian, cautions against overreaction but acknowledges that tariffs are adding to inflationary pressures and may reinforce Federal Reserve caution.
Geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East continue to influence sentiment. Oil surged in June as Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which handles almost 20% of world oil shipments, but prices eased once the waterway remained open. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised official prices to consumers, citing strong demand in China’s post‑pandemic recovery, though refiners are reporting margin squeezes.
Financial institutions have started to reflect this shifting environment in their projections. A Reuters‑polled group of 40 analysts revised Brent average forecasts for 2025 to $67.86 per barrel—up marginally from May—while predicting demand growth of only around 730,000 bpd. JP Morgan cut its annual Brent estimate to $66, citing rising OPEC+ output and sluggish consumption. TD Economics trimmed its forecast further, expecting 2025 WTI to average near $62, warning of sustained downward pressure from trade risk and oversupply.
Two factors loom large over the coming months. First, the path of trade tensions: further tariff escalations or retaliatory actions could erode industrial activity and fuel sales. Second, OPEC+ strategy: with the bloc unconstrained in raising output, additional production could overwhelm tepid demand, pushing prices below current levels. The IEA projects supply growth for 2025 at 2.1 mbpd, while demand is seen rising just 700 kbpd.
On the financial front, hedge fund positioning has turned cautious, registering the sharpest drop in bullish sentiment since February. Traders are forecasting narrower price ranges ahead, with elevated volatility as tariff developments hit market headlines.
Forward‑looking forecasts remain mixed. EIA projects Brent to average $68.89 in 2025 and $58.48 in 2026, marking a seasonal decline. Enverus suggests the upside remains intact if demand holds steady, especially with summer driving season underway. Market watchers also note that rising gas‑to‑oil switching costs, refinery restarts and diminished spare capacity could temper price declines.
China’s consumption is also under scrutiny. While Beijing seeks to stimulate growth through fiscal and monetary tools, investor sentiment remains fragile. Saudi’s decision to push prices higher was based on perceived strengthening in Chinese demand, but many analysts caution that any slow‑down could rapidly tip the balance.
Emerging long‑term trends offer some balance. IEA’s long‑term outlook suggests oil demand will continue rising through the late 2020s, driven by non‑OECD economies and slower clean‑energy adoption, delaying peak demand beyond 2030. Nonetheless, short‑term price direction seems firmly tied to macroeconomic risks and geopolitical dynamics.
U. S. consumers now contend with an effective tariff rate exceeding 20%, marking the steepest level observed since the early 1900s, according to estimates by the International Chamber of Commerce following the latest round of import levies introduced under President Trump’s administration. This escalation stems from a newly implemented baseline tariff of 10%, supplemented by selective duties—up to 50% on copper and 200% on pharmaceuticals—pushing the overall […]
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated on Thursday that BRICS is not an “anti‑American” bloc and will reject any “language of threats and manipulation.” This assertion followed U. S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that countries adopting what he termed “anti‑American policies” aligned with BRICS would face an extra 10 per cent tariff. Ryabkov emphasised BRICS’ focus on dialogue and constructive engagement, not confrontation. He underscored that the group […]
By Nitya Chakraborty The 17th BRICS summit held in Brazil on July 6 and 7 has helped in partially restoring the image of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the defender of the interests of Global South against the increasing attacks on the political and economic interests of the developing nations by the United […]U. S. former President Donald Trump has warned that any nations aligning with the BRICS bloc’s efforts to challenge the U. S. dollar will face a 10 % tariff, set to take effect by 1 August unless a deal is struck. Speaking at a Cabinet meeting and in a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump characterised BRICS’ currency ambitions as tantamount to “destroying the dollar,” likening such […]
TikTok is preparing a standalone version of its app for U. S. users, slated for launch on 5 September 2025, as part of its strategy to comply with the U. S. law mandating a sale or ban of its American operations. The current app will remain functional until March 2026, although officials say this date is subject to change. Under the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled […]
Elon Musk stated that his newly formed America Party will officially support Bitcoin, branding traditional fiat currency as “hopeless.” He responded succinctly on X to a user asking whether his party would embrace the flagship cryptocurrency: “Fiat is hopeless, so yes.” Musk’s announcement aligns with the party’s broader platform of fiscal conservatism, deficit reduction and modernisation of government, which is packaged alongside calls for balanced budgets and […]
Elon Musk has announced the formation of the “America Party”, marking a definitive rupture with Donald Trump. The billionaire declared the project via a post on X, stating the party is “formed to give you back your freedom” and emerged in response to overwhelming support—by a two‑to‑one margin—expressed through a poll on his platform. This move comes after Musk condemned Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”—a sweeping $3.3 trillion […]
By Nitya Chakraborty On the eve of the 17th BRICS Summit scheduled at Rio de Janeiro in Brazil on July 6 and 7, the ongoing discussions among the senior officials of the member countries for the preparation of the draft joint declaration from the Summit, are showing big divergence of views on the two major […]
JD. com and Ant Group have formally submitted proposals to the People’s Bank of China seeking approval for yuan-pegged stablecoin issuance, marking a key step in Beijing’s efforts to internationalise its currency. Ant Group is also preparing licence applications in Hong Kong and Singapore to deploy offshore renminbi stablecoins beyond mainland China.
The push comes after the Hong Kong legislature enacted a stablecoin licensing framework on 21 May 2025, with regulations taking effect from August. Under the new rules, issuers of Hong Kong dollar–referenced digital tokens must secure authorisation from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. JD. com has suggested beginning issuance in Hong Kong before piloting operations in Chinese free-trade zones—a phased approach that has been met with encouraging feedback from regulators.
The strategic backdrop for this development includes a decline in the yuan’s share of global payments to 2.89% in May—the lowest in nearly two years—while dollar-pegged stablecoins control approximately 99% of the market. Former Bank of China deputy head Wang Yongli cautioned that unless yuan-based solutions gain traction, China could risk lagging behind if cross-border payments remain less efficient than dollar-denominated cryptocurrency options.
Ant Group’s global strategy is already in motion. Ant International aims to apply for licences under the new Hong Kong regime from 1 August, and then proceed to Singapore and Luxembourg. Meanwhile, JD. com intends to seek approvals in multiple major currency jurisdictions, citing ambitions to reduce cross-border settlement costs by up to 90% and speed up transaction times to under 10 seconds.
Hong Kong’s stablecoin ordinance emphasizes reserve management, redemptions and robust risk controls, operating on the principle of “same activity, same risks, same regulation”. The region’s new LEAP framework is designed to nurture asset tokenisation and stablecoin issuance, compelling global players to participate.
Remaining constraints on audience trust and onshore–offshore integration persist. China’s strict capital controls may hinder scalable adoption of offshore yuan stablecoins, and questions remain over transparency in reserve backing, redemption mechanisms, and potential surveillance—echoing critiques levelled against e‑CNY, China’s domestic central bank digital currency.
Nonetheless, analysts argue that successfully launching an offshore yuan stablecoin could enhance digital renminbi’s global footprint without conflicting with mainland crypto restrictions. It would offer exporters an alternative to dollar-linked tokens and deepen the yuan’s digital payment infrastructure.
President Trump’s support for dollar-pegged stablecoin regulation in the United States has accelerated momentum overseas. China’s tech giants appear intent on ensuring the yuan remains a competitive currency in the next-generation digital economy.
Key stakeholders, including Morgan Stanley and Crypto HK, suggest that Hong Kong could function as a vital testbed, providing a bridge between mainland policy and the global crypto market.
With licence windows opening this August and multi-jurisdictional applications in progress, the ball is now in the court of global financial regulators. Approval of these proposals could mark a significant shift in digital finance, elevating the yuan’s status in the evolving ecosystem of global trade and finance.
