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Air India is preparing deeper cost controls and fresh flight reductions as the Iran war pushes up fuel costs, disrupts airspace and intensifies pressure on a carrier still trying to complete one of the world’s most ambitious airline turnarounds.

The Tata Group-owned airline is weighing measures that could include furloughs for non-technical employees, salary reductions for senior executives, lower bonus payouts and capacity cuts of more than 20 per cent over the next three months. The review comes as the airline faces longer routings, higher aviation turbine fuel prices and weaker economics on several long-haul and regional services.

Nearly 100 domestic and international flights are expected to be trimmed through July, with North America, Europe and West Asia routes among the most exposed. Longer flight paths caused by restricted airspace across parts of West Asia have increased flying time, crew costs and fuel burn. For an airline with a large share of wide-body operations, even a modest extension of flight time can turn a marginal route into a loss-making one.

Chief executive Campbell Wilson has told staff that the airline had already scaled back some services in April and May, but worsening operating conditions required further action in June and July. The cuts are being framed as a temporary response to abnormal costs rather than a reversal of Air India’s expansion strategy, though they underscore the fragility of the carrier’s recovery.

Air India’s financial strain predates the latest escalation in West Asia. The airline has been absorbing the cost of fleet renewal, cabin refits, technology upgrades, merger integration and service improvements since Tata Group acquired it from the government in 2022. Its merger with Vistara has expanded its premium network and given Singapore Airlines a stake of just over 25 per cent in the enlarged carrier, but the integration has also added complexity at a time of volatile fuel markets and aircraft supply delays.

The airline’s losses for the year ended March 2026 have been estimated at more than ₹220 billion, a sharp deterioration linked to high fuel costs, airspace restrictions, operational disruptions and the heavy cost of restructuring. The figure has raised expectations that shareholders may need to provide additional financial support while management attempts to protect liquidity.

War-linked airspace restrictions have hit Air India more severely than many rivals because of its geography. Flights between the subcontinent and North America or Europe often depend on corridors through Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and surrounding regions. With some of these routes restricted or avoided for safety reasons, aircraft must take longer paths, increasing fuel consumption and reducing aircraft productivity.

The carrier has also faced constraints from aircraft availability. Refits of Boeing 787 aircraft, delivery delays and maintenance requirements have limited flexibility in reallocating capacity. The airline’s earlier suspension of Delhi-Washington services highlighted how aircraft shortages and airspace restrictions can combine to make long-haul routes commercially difficult even where demand exists.

Air India’s planned cuts come against a wider global aviation squeeze. Jet fuel prices have surged as the Iran war disrupted energy markets and raised fears over supply through the Gulf. Airlines with weaker fuel hedging, older fleets or longer detour-heavy networks face the harshest impact. Some carriers are raising fares, while others are cutting capacity to protect cash and preserve operational reliability.

For passengers, the adjustments could mean fewer non-stop choices, higher fares on peak routes and greater reliance on partner airlines through hubs such as London, Frankfurt, New York, Newark, Chicago and San Francisco. Air India is expected to prioritise commercially stronger routes and maintain connectivity where demand, yields and aircraft availability justify operations.

The proposed platform is being developed around the Clearing Corporation of India’s market infrastructure and is expected to be placed before the Reserve Bank of India for regulatory approval. Market participants have been working with the clearing corporation on design features, including trade execution, clearing, margining and reporting, with a rollout being discussed for the current financial quarter if approvals and operational testing proceed on schedule.

Bond forwards allow investors to buy or sell government securities at a pre-agreed price for settlement at a future date. The instrument is designed to help banks, insurers, primary dealers, overseas investors and other large holders manage interest-rate risk without requiring an immediate exchange of securities. Its wider use has become more important as India’s sovereign debt market draws larger cross-border flows after entry into major global bond indices.

The initiative follows the Reserve Bank of India’s February 2025 framework permitting forward contracts in government securities. The rules allow residents and eligible non-residents to undertake bond-forward transactions, while scheduled commercial banks and standalone primary dealers are permitted to act as market-makers. At least one party to a transaction must be a market-maker or a central counterparty authorised by the central bank.

Market officials see the platform as a step towards shifting a largely bilateral market into a more standardised structure. The present system is dominated by negotiated trades, with pricing often shaped by dealer relationships and limited visibility beyond counterparties. A screen-based mechanism could help create firmer reference prices, reduce information gaps and support more consistent valuation of related interest-rate products.

The bond-forward market is estimated at about ₹4 trillion to ₹4.5 trillion, with foreign banks accounting for the bulk of activity. That concentration has helped establish liquidity in parts of the curve but has also limited wider participation by domestic lenders, insurers and other institutional investors. A platform backed by central clearing could lower operational uncertainty for new entrants and improve confidence in settlement arrangements.

Clearing will be central to the reform. A centrally cleared structure would place the clearing corporation between counterparties, reducing bilateral credit exposure and applying margining standards across participants. The Reserve Bank’s directions already require non-centrally cleared bond-forward transactions to comply with margin rules for over-the-counter derivatives, while market-makers must use robust methods to mark positions to market.

The move also fits a wider regulatory push to improve surveillance of over-the-counter derivatives. Reporting of forward contracts in government securities to CCIL’s trade repository began on May 2, 2025, giving regulators access to transaction data through the life of a contract. A separate framework will require unique transaction identifiers for eligible over-the-counter derivative trades from January 1, 2027, improving traceability across counterparties and systems.

Foreign investor access is another factor behind the timing. Electronic trading providers have been building links to India’s government securities market as global investors increase allocations. MarketAxess executed its first platform trade in India government bonds between BlackRock and Standard Chartered Bank in 2025, using an integration with CCIL’s NDS-Order Matching system. Overseas investors bought nearly ₹1 trillion of government bonds over 13 months after inclusion in JPMorgan’s emerging market debt index, while other index inclusions have kept the market on global fixed-income desks’ radar.

The proposed bond-forward platform will still face practical tests. Dealers will need clarity on eligible securities, collateral treatment, settlement failure procedures, reporting formats, position limits and margin models. Participants will also need to align front-office systems, treasury risk controls and back-office processes before meaningful volumes migrate from bilateral trades to a shared electronic venue.

For insurers and long-duration investors, the instrument could become a more precise hedging tool across rate cycles. For banks, it could deepen market-making opportunities while making price discovery more transparent. For regulators, the key benefit lies in cleaner data, stronger risk monitoring and a structure that may reduce opacity in a derivatives market linked directly to sovereign bond pricing.

Asian equities advanced sharply on Monday as artificial intelligence-linked chipmakers in South Korea and Taiwan drove regional benchmarks back towards record territory, erasing the losses triggered by the Iran war and restoring investor appetite for technology-heavy markets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.3 per cent on May 4, its strongest intraday gain since April 8, while the MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index climbed as much as 2.9 per cent. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan, both heavily exposed to the semiconductor supply chain, gained more than 4 per cent each as investors moved back into companies seen as central to the global AI build-out.

The rally was led by the region’s dominant AI hardware suppliers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. These companies sit at crucial points of the AI infrastructure chain, from advanced foundry production to high-bandwidth memory chips used in data centres and graphics processors. Strong earnings from US technology groups have reinforced expectations that capital spending on AI servers, accelerators and cloud infrastructure will remain elevated through 2026.

TSMC has become the clearest symbol of that shift. The world’s largest contract chipmaker posted a 58 per cent jump in first-quarter net profit to a record level, supported by demand for AI processors, and guided second-quarter revenue to $39 billion to $40.2 billion. Its first-quarter revenue rose 35 per cent from a year earlier to about $35.7 billion, underlining the scale of orders tied to advanced computing.

Samsung’s semiconductor division also delivered a major earnings rebound, reporting 53.7 trillion won in operating profit for the first quarter on 81.7 trillion won in revenue. The group said memory sales were lifted by AI-related demand and tight supply, even as its mobile and display businesses faced margin pressure from higher component costs.

SK Hynix has benefited from its strong position in high-bandwidth memory, a category that has become central to AI accelerator performance. Demand from data centre operators and chip designers has pushed memory makers into long-term supply arrangements, with shortages expected to extend into 2027 as customers reserve capacity years ahead.

Taiwan’s broader market has also gained from the AI trade. The island’s economy expanded 13.69 per cent in the first quarter, its fastest annual pace in nearly four decades, supported by a surge in exports tied to AI hardware. Taiwan has overtaken Canada to become the world’s sixth-largest stock market by value, helped by TSMC’s rise and investor demand for companies embedded in advanced chip manufacturing.

Investor confidence has been strengthened by Nvidia’s expanding Asian supply chain. Its partners now span foundries, memory suppliers, electronics assemblers and companies linked to robotics and so-called physical AI. The shift has widened the rally beyond a handful of chip names, lifting component makers and specialist suppliers that provide substrates, packaging, power management and memory-related technologies.

The rebound also reflects a broader reassessment of geopolitical risk. The Iran war initially prompted investors to cut exposure to export-oriented and energy-importing markets, particularly those vulnerable to shipping disruptions and higher fuel costs. Yet the scale of AI-related earnings growth has helped offset those concerns, with funds favouring economies that are directly tied to semiconductor demand and less dependent on domestic consumption.

South Korea’s Kospi has been one of the year’s standout performers, supported by Samsung, SK Hynix and other technology exporters. Taiwan’s Taiex has also outperformed as investors price in continued demand for advanced nodes, AI servers and high-performance computing. The concentration of gains, however, has increased concerns that regional indices are becoming more dependent on a narrow set of semiconductor companies.

Valuations remain a key risk. Share prices in several AI-linked companies have risen faster than earnings forecasts, leaving markets exposed to any slowdown in capital expenditure by US cloud providers or delays in chip production. Memory supply shortages may support pricing in the near term, but they could also raise costs for downstream electronics makers and intensify competition among suppliers expanding capacity.

Currency movements have added another layer to the market response. A weaker won has supported earnings translation for South Korean exporters, while Taiwan’s market has drawn stronger foreign inflows on expectations that AI-linked exports will keep growth elevated. Japan’s yen strengthened during Monday’s regional trading, reflecting a mix of safe-haven demand and shifting expectations around monetary policy.

By K Raveendran Election-season restraint on fuel pricing is giving way to a harsher economic reality, and Indian consumers are likely to feel the impact first through the everyday costs that rarely appear as headline inflation until they have already entered household budgets. Petrol, diesel and cooking fuel are not merely energy products in India; […]

The article With Elections Over, Realistic Pump Prices Only A Matter Of Time appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

Japan’s yen rallied sharply against the dollar on Friday as traders braced for further official action from Tokyo after suspected currency intervention jolted global markets during a packed week of central bank decisions.

The dollar fell to around 155.60 yen at one point in London trading, before recovering part of the move to trade near 156.40. The rebound in the yen followed a dramatic reversal on Thursday, when the Japanese currency strengthened by about 3 per cent after the dollar briefly climbed above 160 yen, a level widely viewed in markets as politically sensitive for Tokyo.

Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura said authorities remained concerned about speculative moves and were watching markets closely. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama had already warned that Tokyo was ready to take decisive action if currency movements became disorderly. The comments reinforced market expectations that further intervention could follow, particularly during Japan’s Golden Week holiday period, when thinner trading conditions can magnify exchange-rate swings.

Bank of Japan money-market data suggested authorities may have spent about 5.48 trillion yen, or roughly $35 billion, to support the currency on Thursday. The scale would be close to the size of Japan’s July 2024 intervention, when authorities moved after the yen weakened to a 38-year low near 162 per dollar. Tokyo typically does not confirm intervention immediately, preferring to disclose monthly figures later, but unusually large projected fund flows at the central bank often provide an early signal of official activity.

The pressure on the yen has been building for months as the interest-rate gap between Japan and the United States remains wide. The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at around 0.75 per cent this week, although three board members dissented and argued for a rise to 1 per cent. That split underlined growing concern inside the central bank that imported inflation, higher energy costs and yen weakness could feed into domestic prices.

The Federal Reserve also left rates unchanged, keeping its target range at 3.5 to 3.75 per cent. The gap between US and Japanese yields continues to encourage carry trades, in which investors borrow cheaply in yen and invest in higher-yielding dollar assets. Such positioning has made the yen vulnerable whenever markets believe Tokyo’s warnings lack force.

The intervention threat gained urgency after oil prices climbed on concerns over disruption linked to the Iran conflict and risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Japan, heavily dependent on imported energy, faces a double blow from higher crude prices and a weaker currency, which raises the local cost of fuel, food and raw materials. That dynamic complicates the Bank of Japan’s effort to normalise policy gradually without damaging a fragile recovery.

The broader central bank backdrop added to volatility. The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2 per cent while signalling that inflation risks had intensified. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent in an 8-1 vote, with one policymaker favouring an increase. Across major economies, policymakers are balancing weaker growth signals against renewed price pressures from energy and supply disruptions.

Currency traders said Japan’s challenge is that intervention can slow a slide but rarely reverses a trend unless supported by monetary policy or a shift in global rates. A one-off operation may force investors to cut speculative positions, but renewed dollar strength can quickly restore pressure on the yen if US yields remain elevated and the Bank of Japan moves cautiously.

The timing of the suspected intervention was also significant. With European markets partly thinned by the May Day holiday and Japan heading into an extended holiday stretch, liquidity conditions were expected to remain fragile. Authorities have often chosen moments of thin trading to maximise the impact of currency operations, but such moves also increase the risk of sudden reversals when full market participation returns.

For households and companies in Japan, the exchange-rate battle has direct economic consequences. A weaker yen benefits exporters by raising the value of overseas earnings, but it also lifts import bills and squeezes consumers through higher costs. Large manufacturers have been able to absorb some of the pressure, while smaller businesses reliant on imported inputs face tighter margins.