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Oil markets swung sharply following the US Air Force’s striking of Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan nuclear facilities on 21 June, triggering a fresh wave of geopolitical risk. Brent crude futures jumped over 11 per cent earlier this week after Israeli attacks, and traders are now preparing for further price volatility once global trading resumes.

President Trump described the operation as a “spectacular military success” and warned that more targets await if Iran does not seek peace. The US employed six B‑2 bombers laden with GBU‑57 “bunker‑buster” bombs—ordnance only capable of penetrating Fordow‘s deep underground vaults. Natanz and Esfahan were also hit, reportedly using Tomahawks from submarines.

Market analysts warn that disruption to Iran’s 2.5 million barrels per day export capacity, plus the threat of a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, would lift risk premiums sharply. Oxford Economics estimates oil could reach $130 a barrel if Iran decides to close the Strait, sending inflation soaring.

Investors are preparing for turbulence in equities and a rush towards safe-haven assets like the US dollar and gold. Potomac River Capital’s CIO, Mark Spindel, warned of markets being “initially alarmed” with heightened volatility continuing until the extent of the damage is confirmed.

Global markets have seen mixed signals: while crude prices surged up to 18 per cent since Israel’s June 13 raids, equities such as the S&P 500 have remained relatively steady. Predicting a deeper sell-off may depend on whether Iran follows through with threats — including disrupting the Strait, leveraging regional proxies, or escalating cyber campaigns.

Iran’s official response has been defiant rather than conciliatory. Tehran’s Atomic Energy Organisation assures no radiation has been released, and lawmakers claim the damage is superficial and repairable. Iran’s foreign ministry has labelled the strikes “outrageous” and cautioned that the consequences will be “everlasting”.

Global leaders have voiced alarm. New Zealand’s foreign minister urged all parties to “de-escalate and return to diplomacy”, while Australia and Mexico emphasised restraint and dialogue. Venezuela and Cuba condemned the strikes as violations of international law, calling for immediate halt to military action.

Oil market specialist Saul Kavonic warns Brent could move towards $100 a barrel “depending on Iran’s retaliation”. While Saudi output increases may buffer short-term shortages, traders recognise that any direct counterstrike on Gulf tanker routes or infrastructure would compound risk.

The destruction of key nuclear enrichment sites may set back Iran’s nuclear programme temporarily. Yet experts caution that the regime’s scientific expertise cannot be fully neutralised and the damage might harden Tehran’s resolve to pursue a bomb. This may also hinder diplomatic engagement, as Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty and cease cooperation with the IAEA.

In financial hubs and oil centres from London to Shanghai, traders are reviewing risk models, stress-testing portfolios and hedging energy exposure. Asian markets, heavily reliant on Gulf crude, could face inflationary pressure if shipping routes are disrupted.

A key question now is whether the United States and its allies will pursue further strikes or shift to diplomatic pressure. Trump’s administration insists that Iran now has a binary choice: embrace peace or face further “precision” strikes. Critics warn that without congressional authorisation, deeper military involvement risks entangling the US in a long-term Middle East conflict.

Tests by Thailand’s Pollution Control Department have revealed that arsenic concentrations in the Kok River and tributaries now exceed national safety limits by up to five times. Biochemical analysis indicates that these toxic levels are linked to unregulated mining operations in Shan State, Myanmar, particularly within territories controlled by the United Wa State Army.

The Kok River, which begins its 285km course in Myanmar’s Daen Lao Range before entering Thailand through Mae Ai and flowing into Chiang Rai and eventually the Mekong, has become the focus of mounting alarm. Tests conducted between late May and early June demonstrated elevated arsenic at all 15 tested points along the Kok and Sai rivers, with further contamination detected in two Mekong sampling sites.

Local fishermen have reported adverse impacts to aquatic life and livelihoods. Prices for catch in Chiang Rai have dropped by nearly half, as consumer fear surrounding contamination takes hold. Fisherman Sawat Kaewdam told AFP: “They say, ‘There’s arsenic. I don’t want to eat that fish.’”.

Satellite imagery and drone footage show dozens of active mining sites emerging since around 2022, believed to involve both gold and rare earth minerals. These mines operate under minimal environmental safeguards, with tailings and chemical-laden effluent discharged directly into rivers. One environmental campaigner described the situation as Thailand’s “largest-ever case of transboundary pollution”.

Health experts warn that while immediate poisoning symptoms may not materialise, long‑term exposure through contaminated water and fish consumption could lead to chronic arsenic poisoning. Somporn Phengkham of the Community Health Impact Assessment Platform emphasised the risk of gradual accumulation, urging increased scrutiny of wells and irrigation systems.

Communities along the Kok River have experienced unusual water discolouration, persistent skin irritations, and fish deformities. Chiang Rai environmentalists staged protests on 5 June, tying ribbons along the river bridge to demand intervention and mine closure. In Chiang Mai’s Mae Ai district, a monk from Wat Thaton confirmed that the river’s appearance and use had become culturally and practically untenable.

Thailand’s federal government has initiated emergency measures. Deputy Prime Minister Prasert Jantararuangtong has overseen a new response centre, while the Pollution Control Department is conducting enhanced sampling. Officials reassure domestic water supplies are safe, although the contamination source remains external.

Proposals for containment include constructing a dam across the Kok River to trap sediments, dredging heavily polluted sections, and pursuing diplomatic negotiations with Myanmar and China. The Foreign Affairs Committee is engaging Beijing to urge oversight of Chinese mining companies operating within UWSA territories.

Challenges persist as Shan State’s mines lie beyond Myanmar’s central control. With the UWSA exerting autonomy and Chinese-linked firms driving extraction operations, finding a direct negotiating partner proves elusive. Regional analysts warn that building physical barriers without curbing source pollution will yield temporary alleviation at best.

Environmental advocates underscore the urgency of scaling up real-time monitoring and cross-border coordination. They highlight growing concerns that contamination could extend throughout the Mekong basin, threatening agriculture, fisheries, and water security across Southeast Asia.

Experts like Tanapon Phenrat of Naresuan University stress that addressing the problem requires systemic reform: mandated tailings treatment, strict environmental standards, and international cooperation. “We need to act now,” he stated.

Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport remains closed with no clear reopening date, while Iran, Iraq and Jordan have shut their airspace and forced rerouting, cancellations and suspensions across the region. Abu Dhabi-based Etihad has cancelled its Tel Aviv flights until 30 June, with several Beirut and Amman services rerouted. Emirates has suspended routes to Tehran, Baghdad and Basra until at least 30 June, and flights to Amman and Beirut through 22 June. Flydubai has halted operations to Iran, Iraq, Israel and Syria until 30 June. Air Arabia and Wizz Air Abu Dhabi have also imposed temporary bans or schedule alterations for various Middle‑East destinations.

A UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs advisory urges citizens and residents to closely monitor airline updates and remain in touch with Twajudi, the national consular registration system for managing potential evacuations.

Regional airports are adapting under pressure. Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah have filed emergency plans to minimise disruption, deploying field teams and enhanced passenger support to handle thousands of affected travellers. Europe-bound flights are now navigating narrow air corridors via Turkey and Egypt, adding hours to journey times, increasing fuel consumption and driving up operational costs amid rising Brent crude prices.

Why airspace closures are widening disruption

Closure of airspace over Israel, Iran, Iraq, Jordan and Syria forces airlines to detail-call costly detours. Regional carriers like Emirates, Etihad and flydubai are most affected, but even Western carriers—Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Ryanair, Wizz Air—have suspended affected routes through summer.

The cascading effect on schedules includes over 1,800 Europe-bound flight disruptions, approximately 650 cancellations, and delays across transatlantic routes. Airlines have expanded rerouting through Central Asia and the Mediterranean — and passengers are incurring higher ticket prices and longer travel times.

Passenger assistance measures

Major UAE carriers are offering rebookings, refunds or credits. Etihad and Emirates are assisting passengers with alternate routing, and flydubai has pledged support for stranded individuals. Wizz Air Abu Dhabi has suspended flights to Tel Aviv through 15 September, offering full refunds or rebooking.

Safety remains top priority amid military skirmishes. EASA flagged high risks over conflict zones following missile exchanges between Israel and Iran, aligning with airspace closures through October in Syria and ongoing risks in Lebanon and Jordan.

Wider implications for aviation and tourism

Analysts warn disruptions may prolong as long-range military assets remain in play—fueling concerns about further airspace restrictions. Already, the Middle-East tourism boom has stalled, with summer travel projections for 2025 downgraded across the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Airlines are adjusting summer schedules and revising revenue forecasts amid cascading delays and costlier operations.

Governments and aviation bodies are in emergency sessions. The UAE’s aviation regulator is coordinating with international counterparts, while civil aviation agencies across Europe are recalibrating route permissions and contingency plans—potentially impacting global air connectivity for weeks.

Passengers are urged to monitor developments, confirm flight statuses directly with airlines or travel agents and consider flexible booking options as markets remain volatile.

Google’s array of AI‑powered services—Search, Ads, Play, Maps, YouTube and Gemini—delivered a Dhs21.8 billion uplift to the UAE’s economy in 2024, fueling digital transformation, consumer value and job creation.

Search and Ads alone generated Dhs20.2 billion by enabling thousands of local companies to reach new customers and expand operations. Gemini, Google’s AI assistant, has seen 63 per cent of UAE adults using it, with nine in ten users reporting gains in productivity and 71 per cent praising its Arabic‑language ease of use. Other tools, including Maps, Waze and mobile wallets, further enhanced daily routines.

The Google Maharat Min Google skilling initiative has equipped more than 430,000 people in the UAE with digital and AI competencies since 2018. Meanwhile, the Android and Google Play ecosystem supported around 30,000 jobs and generated approximately Dhs455 million in revenue for UAE‑based app developers in 2024.

Survey data from March 2025, with responses from over 1,100 consumers and nearly 400 business leaders, indicates that Google’s services offer an estimated average monthly benefit of Dhs683 per user. Half of adults describe Search as essential to their routine, 89 per cent rely on Maps or Waze for navigation, and 90 per cent use mobile payment platforms like GPay or GWallet to streamline transactions.

Adoption of AI tools among UAE businesses is nearing ubiquity, with 91 per cent reporting use of at least one AI product in workflows, while 97 per cent of public‑sector respondents confirm boosted productivity from Google’s AI solutions. Consumer engagement is likewise robust: 94 per cent use Search monthly to compare prices, 86 per cent check reviews before visiting venues, 80 per cent use mapping apps to locate businesses, and 73 per cent of 18–24‑year‑olds browse or shop via Search weekly.

Google’s platforms have also strengthened the creative and developer landscape: over 600 UAE‑based YouTube channels surpassed one million subscribers—a 15 per cent annual rise—and the Google News Initiative has trained more than 20,000 journalists and journalism students across the MENA region, including the UAE.

Anthony Nakache, Google’s Managing Director for the Middle East and North Africa, emphasised that the firm’s “investment in accelerating the country’s ambitious journey towards a diversified, AI‑powered economy” is reflected in the findings. He highlighted how local partnerships, AI‑driven tools and continuous skilling programmes contribute to “substantial economic value” and empower individuals, enterprises and communities within the UAE.

Public First’s Economic Impact Report, published mid‑June, is based on econometric modelling, consumer and business polling, case studies and secondary data. Survey responses were weighted to reflect the UAE’s national demographics.

Citigroup analysts warn that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could lift Brent crude prices to approximately $90 a barrel, although they expect any halt to shipping to be brief. They cite the strategic importance of the strait—through which nearly 20 million barrels per day flow—suggesting market reaction would be sharp but short-lived as global efforts would swiftly aim to reopen the passage.

Citigroup’s forecast is embedded in a wider reassessment of global oil dynamics amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly stemming from the Israel‑Iran conflict. With around 3 million barrels per day of output at potential risk and Iran among OPEC’s top producers, disruptions—even temporary—could reverberate across the energy market. Citi’s base-case scenario projects Brent at $75–78 per barrel if approximately 1.1 million barrels daily of Iranian exports are affected.

A total 3 million bpd disruption, sustained over months, could even hit the $90 mark, Citi warns. Still, analysts emphasise that broader supply resilience, including increased output from non‑OPEC producers and reduced demand growth—due in part to slowing Chinese purchases—might temper a sustained rally.

Other leading financial institutions draw a similar line: Goldman Sachs and Barclays point to heightened geopolitical risk premiums, respectively estimating $10 and $15–20 per barrel add-ons if Iran’s exports are severely cut—a situation that could push prices above $100 in extreme scenarios. JPMorgan outlines a worst-case blockade of the Hormuz strait leading to a $120‑130 spike, though such events would likely be fleeting.

Analysts and experts stress that while short-term oil supply disruptions would sharply affect spot prices, structural market factors could offset prolonged volatility. OPEC has spare capacity; U.S. shale output remains nimble; and China has begun trimming its purchases as inventories fill, helping absorb supply shocks.

Geosphere Capital’s Arvind Sanger assesses a 25 percent likelihood of an actual tactical attack on critical infrastructure such as Kharg Island or Hormuz, but holds that there is a 75 percent chance hostilities do not directly impact supply chains. Shipping insurance and risk premiums are rising, though long‑term disruption remains unlikely.

Diplomatic signals, particularly from Washington playing a stabilising role in response to Iranian threats, may also help contain risks. Historical precedent—such as Rapid US naval deployments near the strait in 2008—reinforces the view that any attempt to close Hormuz by Tehran would quickly provoke international counter‑measures.

Market movements reflect this delicate balance. Brent futures recently climbed above $78 before easing to the low‑to mid‑$70s, as traders weighed the potential for escalation against buffer capacity and broader production trends. Estimates from Rystad Energy suggest oil will likely remain capped below $80 unless dramatic escalation occurs—a view echoed by Midland Reporter‑Telegram coverage.

Citi’s note, authored by Anthony Yuen and Eric Lee, highlights that even though Hormuz closure would trigger a pronounced price spike, global strategic response and logistical imperatives would likely curtail its duration. They describe that, in their bullish scenario, “any closure of the Strait could lead to a sharp price spike … but … it should not be a multi‑month closure.”

Investors are advised to monitor diplomatic channels, oil inventories, and production shifts in Saudi Arabia, UAE and the US. While a temporary supply squeeze may lift prices—potentially to the $90 level—structural growth in non‑OPEC output and strategic reserves may prevent a prolonged energy shock.

Zurich-based 21Shares AG has extended its reach in the Nordic financial market by adding five cryptocurrency exchange-traded products to Nasdaq Stockholm, taking its total offerings on the Swedish exchange to ten. The newly cross-listed products—Uniswap, Avalanche, Bitcoin Gold, Solana Core Staking and Ethereum Core —join the firm’s existing Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Bitcoin Core ETPs.

This move reflects mounting interest among both retail and institutional investors in regulated access to a broader range of digital assets via established trading venues. With the latest additions, 21Shares reinforces its position as a leading provider of physically backed, transparent crypto investment products in Europe.

Mandy Chiu, Head of Financial Product Development at 21Shares, highlighted that the expansion enables investors to craft more bespoke portfolios. “By offering a broader selection of single‑asset and thematic crypto ETPs, we’re empowering investors to build more customised and resilient portfolios through a familiar exchange environment,” she said. Nasdaq’s European ETF & ETP head, Helena Wedin, welcomed the new suite, noting such innovation as shaping the future of capital markets.

The newly listed ETPs offer exposure to distinct niches within the crypto ecosystem. AUNI provides a stake in Uniswap, the leading decentralised exchange. AVAX tracks Avalanche, a platform noted for its scalability. BOLD focuses on Bitcoin Gold—a fork designed to democratise mining. CSOL delivers both Solana price exposure and staking yield, while ETHC covers Ethereum’s core asset. These additions allow investors to target specific segments, from DeFi protocols to next‑generation blockchains and staking-enabled assets.

All 21Shares ETPs are physically collateralised and traded under regulated frameworks, removing the burden of wallet management and key custody. Fees range from 0.21% to 2.50% annually, offering a competitive alternative to direct crypto exchange transactions. The firm’s products are also listed on Euronext Paris, Amsterdam, London and SIX Swiss Exchange, contributing to a diversified pan-European presence.

This latest development comes as Europe prepares for implementation of the Markets in Crypto‑Assets Regulation, aimed at standardising crypto oversight. More listings on regulated exchanges help issuers align with the evolving regulatory landscape.

21Shares’ strategy compares with best-in-class players in traditional finance pushing crypto integration. From Bitcoin and Ethereum to platforms like Solana and Avalanche, the firm’s growing suite meets demand both for mainstream exposure and thematic investment strategies.

Despite these advances, some challenges persist. Liquidity conditions for less‑traded tokens such as Bitcoin Gold can be thin, and tracking discrepancies may emerge between product performance and spot prices. Fees, while competitive, can vary significantly: niche products may carry noticeably higher rates, impacting returns.

Nevertheless, for investors seeking regulated and familiar vehicles, the benefits are tangible. ETPs provide access through existing brokerages, transparency under established compliance standards and relief from the technical complexity of self-custody.

This expansion also underscores Nasdaq Stockholm’s evolving role as a hub for crypto‑linked financial instruments. Stockholm’s regulatory environment and market infrastructure make it attractive for issuers and investors alike. The increased product diversity enhances its appeal to both domestic and regional markets.

Beyond booming local interest, 21Shares continues to push forward globally. In the US, the firm is pursuing approvals for a suite of spot crypto exchange-traded funds—including for Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Polkadot, and Sui—as it seeks to replicate its European success. Additionally, its ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF underwent a 3‑for‑1 stock split on 16 June to enhance accessibility.

Since launching the first physically backed crypto ETP in 2018, 21Shares has built a track record of innovation and adaptation. Backed by deep market expertise and proprietary custody systems, the company now manages approximately US $9.15 billion in assets under management. Leadership changes—including new CEO Russell Barlow—reflect an evolving operational structure focused on scalability.

The United Arab Emirates is on track to maintain an annual growth rate of approximately 4 % from 2025 through 2028, underpinned by robust expansion in non-oil sectors and rising oil output, according to S&P Global Ratings.

S&P’s Zahabia S Gupta, Director of the Sovereign team, emphasised that even with softened oil prices and global growth headwinds, the federation and individual emirates are projected to record consecutive fiscal surpluses. Boosted liquidity and investment returns are expected to raise the UAE’s net asset position to around 177 % of GDP by 2028.

Oil production quotas agreed by OPEC+ are forecast to remain elevated, enhancing the UAE’s hydrocarbon revenues, though the non-oil sectors—such as finance, real estate, tourism, and services—are seen as the main drivers. The Central Bank raised its 2024 GDP projection to 4 % and forecasts growth of 6 % for 2025. Sectoral diversification, including continued investment in infrastructure, logistics, and digital technologies, will support sustained activity levels across the seven emirates.

Emirates’ fiscal health, backed by solid sovereign reserves and rising yields on sovereign-backed assets, positions the government to generate surpluses even amid modest global economic slowdown. Gupta points out that income from liquid investments will be critical in reinforcing net asset accumulation. This resilient fiscal trajectory contrasts favourably with regional peers.

Sharjah, however, presents a more cautious outlook. S&P recently revised its forecast for the emirate’s economic performance, predicting roughly 3 % annual growth through 2028 alongside a widening deficit that is expected to reach 6.7 % of GDP in 2024. The difference underlines the UAE’s internal variance in expansion and structural robustness.

The UAE’s medium-term macroeconomic forecast aligns with IMF projections indicating real GDP growth of about 4.2 % in 2025 and a gradual uptick to 4.5 % by 2028. Non‑oil GDP growth is expected to consistently outpace the oil sector, significantly contributing to overall diversification efforts. Financing this will involve domestic debt issuance, estimated at around US $19 billion in 2024, nearly 55 % of which will be allocated to development projects.

Market observers note that the central bank’s policy rate adjustments, tied to the US Federal Reserve, may influence domestic lending conditions, but the policy outlook remains cautious given the dirham’s peg to the dollar. Financial sector resilience—evidenced by healthy bank liquidity and expanding lending—will support private sector credit growth.

The UAE’s strategic economic pivot includes deeper integration into global supply chains, expansion of tourism and hospitality capacity, and advanced digital infrastructure rollout. High-profile projects such as the Wynn Al Marjan Island integrated resort, which is set to open in Ras Al Khaimah in 2027, reflect the commitment to economic diversification.

Investors and analysts recognise that sustaining 4 % growth will require balancing oil revenue reliance with resilient non-hydrocarbon sectors. Fiscal discipline and effective public investment will remain crucial, particularly amid geopolitical tensions and potential global demand fluctuations. S&P’s projections anticipate that the UAE will continue recording fiscal surpluses, unlike other economies which may face tightening pressures.

The UAE’s economic trajectory contrasts sharply with that of Saudi Arabia, where growth is expected to accelerate to about 4 % over the same period—yet heavily influenced by oil production—underscoring the UAE’s relative strength in non‑oil diversification. The country’s strategic position as a regional financial and logistics hub reinforces its prospects against external shocks.

Challenges persist, including global inflationary pressures, energy price volatility, and regional geopolitical uncertainty. The government’s capacity to manage these risks, while preserving capital buffers and sustaining reform momentum, will be critical to achieve projected outcomes.