Urea scramble deepens before monsoon sowing
The timing reflects pressure building across the farm supply chain just before planting for rice, maize and soybean gathers pace in June. India is the world’s biggest urea importer and remains exposed not only to overseas fertiliser shipments but also to liquefied natural gas supplies from the Gulf, a key feedstock for domestic urea plants. Market disruption linked to the conflict has forced policymakers and import agencies to act earlier and at larger scale than usual to avoid a supply gap during the monsoon cropping cycle.
The tender itself underlines the urgency. Indian Potash’s notice, dated 4 April, shows the company is seeking granular or prilled urea in bulk for agriculture use, with separate pricing required for FOBT and C&FFO terms. The notice also sets the bid opening for 15 April and says offers must remain valid until 23 April. Those details matter because India’s tenders often serve as a benchmark for global trade, influencing price expectations far beyond its own market.
Supply stress has emerged on two fronts. First, disruption around the Gulf has affected fertiliser cargo movements through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most sensitive trade chokepoints for both natural gas and finished fertiliser. Second, tighter LNG availability has curtailed feedstock for urea manufacturing at home. Reuters reported that the conflict had cut domestic output by about 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes a month, while other reports in the domestic press said production in one month had slipped to about 18 lakh tonnes from around 24 lakh tonnes.
That drop is striking because domestic capacity had been strengthened over the past decade. Official figures released last month said urea production in 2024-25 stood at 306.67 lakh metric tonnes, after touching a record 314.07 lakh metric tonnes in 2023-24. The broader policy effort has been to reduce import dependence through revived plants and brownfield additions, yet the present disruption shows that energy exposure still leaves the sector vulnerable when conflict hits upstream supply and freight corridors.
Trade data had already pointed to a more import-dependent year even before the latest escalation. Fertiliser Association of India data reported in January showed urea imports jumped 120.3 per cent year on year to 7.17 million tonnes in April-November 2024-25. That surge suggested domestic output and demand were already misaligned, leaving little buffer when the external shock arrived. The latest tender therefore looks less like a one-off emergency purchase and more like an attempt to rebuild a thinning pipeline before farm demand accelerates.
The price implications are equally important. Reuters said India’s previous tender had cleared at $418.40 a tonne, and traders now expect the new purchase to test higher levels because global availability has tightened. Argus reported that the war had effectively cut off exports from major Gulf producers including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain, which together usually account for roughly 1 million tonnes a month, or about a fifth of global urea trade. It also cited Kpler data showing more than 900,000 tonnes on stranded vessels beyond Hormuz.
Officials have also been working on contingency planning outside the tender route. Domestic reports said a task group had been formed to assess global urea sources and prepare import options, while gas supply to fertiliser units has been partially restored through spot purchases and reallocation. That may soften the production hit, but it does not fully remove the risk because any prolonged interruption in Gulf shipping or LNG flows would keep pressure on both landed prices and physical availability.
