RBA Declares “Peace Dividend” Era Has Ended Amid Global Strategic Disruption
Australia’s Reserve Bank, through Assistant Governor Brad Jones, has warned that the era of stability and integration following the Cold War has given way to a more contested strategic environment that carries elevated risk for governments, financial institutions, and markets. At a FINSIA event in Sydney on 12 September, Jones declared that “the era of the peace dividend is over,” citing geopolitical, technological and operational disruptions reshaping the global financial order.
Jones described the international security and economic system as undergoing “seismic adjustment — on a scale and speed unseen in eight decades.” He flagged multiple forces contributing to instability: rising strategic rivalry, weakening tenets of the rules-based order, frictions in globalisation, and increasing emphasis on self-insurance by nations and firms against a broader set of possible harms.
Technological advances form one front of the risk profile. Jones spoke of an expanding surface for cyber-attacks driven by digitalisation, concerns over concentration risk in cloud services, and quantum computing’s looming threat to encryption systems. Artificial intelligence, while promising productivity gains, poses risks of misinformation, fraud, and systemic instability due to herding behaviour.
Critical infrastructure exposures were cited as especially vulnerable: telecommunications networks, the electrical grid, payment systems, and market infrastructure. Jones referenced a recent example in Europe, where cascading power outages in the Iberian Peninsula disrupted both households and economic activity, pointing out that such disruptions would be far more dangerous if key financial infrastructure were affected.
To respond, the RBA is pressing for what it calls an “anti-fragile” financial system—one not simply capable of withstanding shocks but able to adapt and improve because of them. Innovation, competition, and efficiency are being positioned not as opposing goals to resilience but as complementary. Initiatives under way include work with industry to bolster payments resilience, frameworks to ensure that future payments systems embed reliability and recoverability, migration to quantum-safe encryption standards, and reforms aimed at enabling new entrants in financial market infrastructure to reduce concentration risk.
These concerns build on earlier warnings in the RBA’s Financial Stability Review, which noted that heightened geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainty, and technological vulnerabilities could interact with existing financial system risks. The review flagged operational risks from interconnectedness and dependency on third parties for infrastructure and services.
The shift has implications for monetary policy, regulatory oversight, and business strategy. Regulators are likely to place greater emphasis on risk scenarios involving geopolitics, cyber-threats and supply-chain disruptions; financial institutions will need to review and stress-test against non-traditional threats while ensuring agility; and policy frameworks may need to evolve to address threats outside standard macroeconomic shocks.
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