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Global oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in over four years, driven by escalating trade tensions and fears of a global economic slowdown. Brent crude dropped by 3.79% to $60.44 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate declined by 4.13% to $57.12, marking their lowest points since February 2021. This decline follows the United States’ implementation of 104% tariffs on Chinese imports, after Beijing maintained its 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. The escalating tit-for-tat measures have dampened hopes for a swift resolution, raising concerns about a deepening global recession and diminishing energy demand.

Compounding the situation, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies plan to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, potentially leading to a supply surplus. Analysts warn that this move could further destabilize the market. Despite a slight easing from a 1.1 million-barrel decrease in U.S. crude inventories, overall sentiment remains bearish. Goldman Sachs forecasts further declines in oil prices through 2025 and 2026. Additionally, Russia’s ESPO Blend oil has, for the first time, dropped below the $60 Western price cap, underlining the global pressure on oil markets.

In Canada, oil and gas executives are adopting a cautious approach in response to the price slump. Doug Bartole, CEO of InPlay Oil, indicated that while immediate cutbacks in production or spending are not planned, sustained low prices, especially around $50 per barrel, could prompt strategic reassessments. InPlay recently completed a C$321 million acquisition of Alberta oil assets from Obsidian Energy, despite market uncertainties. Analysts from ATB Capital Markets have downgraded InPlay’s share target based on current low WTI price levels. Economist Peter Tertzakian noted that while major oil sands companies can sustain lower prices, smaller firms may need to adjust capital expenditures if the price slump continues. Meanwhile, Birchcliff Energy CEO Chris Carlsen highlighted a potential benefit for natural gas producers, as reduced oil drilling may decrease associated gas output, potentially tightening supply.

The sharp decline in oil prices poses significant challenges for Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 megaprojects, including the futuristic Neom city. Oil remains the backbone of the kingdom’s economy, despite efforts to diversify. With Brent crude recently falling to $62 a barrel and forecasts suggesting further declines due to global economic instability and increased OPEC+ output, the country faces a budget deficit and reduced oil-derived income. Saudi Aramco’s anticipated dividends have dropped significantly, compounding financial pressures. Analysts expect the government may scale back or delay lower-priority projects, focus on key investments like global events, or increase borrowing and taxation. Notably, plans for “The Line” have reportedly been reduced to a 1.5-mile stretch associated with the 2034 FIFA World Cup. Despite reassurances from Saudi officials, concerns persist that the ambitious Neom development, championed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, may need to be downsized unless oil revenues recover.

The U.S. administration’s tariff policies have been a significant factor in the market’s volatility. While some argue that the tariffs, impacting about 1% of the $28 trillion U.S. economy, are intended to shift global trade dynamics in favor of the United States and counter countries like China, others believe that the market’s reaction has been exaggerated. Despite the uproar, these tariffs would channel approximately $300 billion annually to the U.S. Treasury. Critics argue that the U.S., while the world’s largest importer, has a relatively low import-to-GDP ratio compared to other countries. They contend that China has more to lose in a trade war due to its export-reliant economy and employment structure. American public sentiment appears cautiously supportive of fair trade measures, especially against perceived Chinese industrial subsidies. Some suggest that markets should adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than panicking, likening the administration’s stance to the backlash faced by UK Prime Minister Liz Truss over her economic reform attempts, suggesting a resistance to market-driven pressure.

Falling oil prices, encouraged by policies aimed at reducing regulatory burdens, may bring lower gasoline costs but also discourage new oil production due to unprofitable pricing levels and economic uncertainty. Efforts to stimulate future energy production, such as expanding drilling access and reviving coal via executive order, are counterbalanced by cautious industry investment amidst global trade tensions. Additionally, March 2025 was the second-warmest on record globally, with Arctic sea ice hitting a near half-century low, continuing a concerning trend of climate anomalies. On the tech front, battery startup Bedrock Materials is shutting down due to competitiveness issues against cheaper lithium-ion technology from China. Meanwhile, Tesla alum Drew Baglino’s Heron Power is raising $50 million to develop advanced solid-state transformers, reflecting continued clean-tech investment. Furthermore, the Bezos Earth Fund and Global Methane Hub announced a $27.4 million initiative to identify and breed cattle and sheep that emit less methane, a step toward sustainable livestock farming. These developments reflect significant intersections between policy, environment, and innovation shaping global energy and climate landscapes.

The United Arab Emirates will enforce a 15% Domestic Minimum Top-up Tax on large multinational enterprises operating within its jurisdiction, effective for financial years commencing on or after January 1, 2025. This measure aligns with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Two-Pillar Solution, aiming to ensure that MNEs pay a minimum effective tax rate globally. The DMTT applies to MNEs with consolidated global revenues of €750 million or more in at least two of the four financial years preceding the tax period.

The UAE Ministry of Finance announced this initiative as part of its commitment to international tax standards and to bolster non-oil revenue streams. The DMTT is designed to prevent tax base erosion by ensuring that large MNEs contribute a fair share of taxes in the countries where they operate. This move follows the UAE’s introduction of a 9% corporate tax on business profits exceeding AED 375,000, implemented in June 2023. The new 15% tax specifically targets large MNEs, reflecting the UAE’s dedication to global tax transparency and fairness.

The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Finance has introduced Cabinet Decision No. 35 of 2025, outlining specific criteria under which non-resident juridical persons—entities not incorporated in the UAE—are considered to have a taxable presence, or ‘nexus’, in the country. This decision supersedes the earlier Cabinet Decision No. 56 of 2023 and provides clarity on the tax obligations of foreign investors, particularly those involved with Qualifying Investment Funds and Real Estate Investment Trusts .

Under the new guidelines, non-resident juridical persons are deemed to have a nexus in the UAE if they earn income from immovable property located within the country. Immovable property encompasses land, buildings, and fixtures permanently attached to the land or structures. This definition aligns with international tax norms, ensuring that income derived from such properties is taxable in the jurisdiction where the property is situated.

The decision specifies that foreign entities investing in UAE real estate, whether directly or through vehicles like QIFs or REITs, will be subject to corporate tax on income generated from these investments. This taxation applies regardless of whether the property is held for business operations or as an investment asset. The income will be taxed on a net basis, permitting the deduction of relevant expenditures that comply with the conditions set out in the Corporate Tax Law.

Younis Haji Al Khoori, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance, emphasized that this approach is consistent with international best practices, which stipulate that income derived from immovable property is taxable in the country where the property is located. He noted that the UAE’s Corporate Tax Law incorporates features that honor international taxation principles and ensures neutrality between domestic and foreign companies earning income from immovable property in the UAE.

The introduction of these guidelines is part of the UAE’s broader efforts to establish a fair and transparent tax system that aligns with global standards. In December 2024, the UAE announced plans to implement a 15% minimum top-up tax on large multinational companies starting January 2025, in accordance with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s global minimum corporate tax agreement. This tax targets companies with consolidated global revenues of €750 million or more in at least two of the four financial years preceding its implementation.

The Ministry of Finance is considering the introduction of corporate tax incentives to promote research and development activities and high-value employment within the country. The proposed R&D tax incentive, expected to take effect for tax periods starting on or after January 1, 2026, would offer a refundable tax credit ranging from 30% to 50%, depending on the size of the company’s operations and revenue. Similarly, a refundable tax credit for high-value employment activities is under consideration, potentially applicable from January 1, 2025.

The UAE’s commitment to aligning its tax policies with international standards reflects its dedication to fostering a competitive and transparent business environment. By clarifying the tax obligations of non-resident investors and introducing measures to prevent tax avoidance, the UAE aims to enhance its economic competitiveness and attract sustainable investments.

Emirati trainer Saeed bin Suroor is set to field Godolphin’s seasoned contenders, Dubai Future and Passion and Glory, in the Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan Racecourse on Saturday, 5 April 2025. The Dubai Gold Cup, a 3,200-meter turf race, boasts a purse of $1 million and is a highlight of the Dubai World Cup meeting, which offers a total prize pool of $30.5 million.

Dubai Future, a nine-year-old gelding, returns to the track after a 14-month hiatus. Bin Suroor has expressed confidence in Dubai Future’s readiness, noting, “Dubai Future is having his first start for a while, although I have been really pleased with his work. He has gone well at Meydan before and I’m hoping for another good run.” The gelding has previously demonstrated his capabilities with three wins at Meydan and a notable victory in the Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy on 21 February 2025.

Passion and Glory, another of Bin Suroor’s trainees, has also shown promise on the international stage. Reflecting on their performances, Bin Suroor remarked, “It was amazing to finally win the Bahrain Trophy after trying for a few years and to have the runner-up as well as a fantastic bonus. Dubai Future and Passion and Glory obviously both put in exceptional performances.”

The Dubai World Cup meeting is renowned for attracting top-tier talent from around the globe. Sheikh Rashed bin Dalmook Al Maktoum, Chairman of the Dubai Racing Club, highlighted the event’s prestige, stating, “We have received some outstanding nominations for the 29th Dubai World Cup meeting from all corners of the globe. This is a testament both to the outstanding facilities for horses at Meydan Racecourse and the strength of the Dubai World Cup meeting, one of the best days of racing on the global calendar.”

Bin Suroor’s impressive record includes nine victories in the $12 million Dubai World Cup race. He has emphasized the significance of the event, saying, “The race meeting was created to become the best in the world and it has exceeded all expectations.” His notable wins feature the legendary Dubai Millennium in 2000 and Thunder Snow, who made history as the first horse to win the race twice.

The United Arab Emirates’ non-oil private sector experienced a deceleration in growth during March, as indicated by the latest S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index . The index declined to 54.0 from February’s 55.0, marking the lowest point since September. Despite this dip, the PMI remains above the 50.0 threshold, signifying continued expansion in the sector.

The moderation in growth is primarily attributed to a slowdown in new order inflows, which have decreased for the third consecutive month. The new orders index fell to 56.3 in March from 57.3 in February, reaching its weakest level since October. This trend suggests a tapering in demand momentum within the UAE’s diversified economy.

In response to mounting backlogs, companies have accelerated their input purchases at the fastest rate since July 2019. This proactive approach aims to address operational pressures and maintain service levels. However, employment growth has softened, registering its slowest pace in nearly three years, as firms encounter challenges in recruitment and workforce expansion.

Input prices have seen a moderate rise, with some businesses facing increased material costs, while others benefit from reduced transportation expenses. This nuanced cost landscape reflects the complex dynamics influencing the sector’s operational environment.

Dubai’s non-oil private sector also mirrored this slowdown, with its PMI dropping to a five-month low of 53.2 from 54.3 in February. The emirate experienced a rare reduction in employment levels, despite a continued, albeit slower, increase in new orders.

Nevertheless, businesses across the UAE maintain a positive outlook regarding future growth prospects. This optimism is underpinned by robust project pipelines and ongoing national infrastructure developments, which are expected to bolster the non-oil sector’s performance in the coming months.