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By K Raveendran The US-Iran deal marks a genuine easing of one of the most dangerous geopolitical shocks to hit the energy market, but it should not be mistaken for a reset button. The immediate risk of a military breakdown has declined, and that matters for every stakeholder: Washington, Tehran, Gulf producers, Asian importers, shipping […]

The article Oil’s Peace Dividend Is Real But No Return To Pre-War Situation appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

Overseas funds bought a net US$160.4 million of Vietnamese shares on Monday, the largest daily inflow since 10 September 2020. The buying helped steady a market that had been under pressure from rising oil prices, global risk aversion and sustained foreign withdrawals despite Vietnam’s long-awaited move towards emerging-market status.

The VN-Index rose 0.43 per cent to 1,799.31 on Monday and moved back above the 1,800-point area on Tuesday, keeping the benchmark close to levels that still represent a strong annual advance even after a pullback over the past month. The shift was part of a wider rebound across Asian emerging markets after the United States and Iran agreed on terms aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over inflation and fuel costs.

The reversal is notable because foreign investors have remained net sellers of Vietnamese equities this year. Even after Monday’s inflow, overseas funds have sold about US$2.6 billion of Vietnamese stocks in 2026, following withdrawals of roughly US$4.8 billion last year. Those outflows reflected concerns over market concentration, heavy exposure to a few large-cap groups, tariff uncertainty, currency pressure and the impact of higher energy prices on a manufacturing-led economy.

“De-escalation in the Middle East and Vietnam’s own underperformance have created a textbook re-entry set-up for foreign capital,” said Quynh Cao, head of institutional business at VNDirect Securities. “Positioning was already tight and it does not take much to flip that.”

Vietnam’s appeal to global investors rests on more than a single trading session. FTSE Russell has confirmed that the country will be reclassified from frontier to secondary emerging-market status from 21 September, with inclusion in global equity indices to be phased through 2027. The upgrade is expected to bring passive inflows of about US$1.5 billion, with broader active flows potentially lifting the total to several billion dollars if market reforms continue.

The reclassification follows changes aimed at improving foreign access, including the removal of full pre-funding requirements for equity trades and the development of a global broker model. These reforms address long-standing obstacles for institutional investors, who had complained about settlement risk, limited access channels and operational frictions that made Vietnam harder to replicate within global index portfolios.

Large-cap names expected to draw attention include Vingroup, Masan Group, FPT Corp and Hoa Phat Group, alongside banks, securities firms, industrial stocks and consumer companies with sufficient liquidity and foreign room. Average daily trading value in Vietnamese equities this year has been around US$789 million, underscoring the market’s growing depth, though liquidity remains uneven across sectors.

The macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive. Vietnam’s economy expanded 8.02 per cent in 2025, helped by strong exports, public investment, manufacturing activity and resilient consumption. Foreign direct investment disbursement rose to about US$27.6 billion last year, while exports reached roughly US$475 billion. Growth is expected to moderate this year, but projections still place Vietnam among Asia’s faster-growing economies.

Higher oil prices had complicated that outlook. Vietnam is exposed to imported fuel and energy costs, making any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz a direct risk to inflation, transport costs and factory margins. The drop in crude prices after the US-Iran accord helped restore confidence among investors looking at countries with strong structural growth but sensitivity to external shocks.

The market is not without vulnerabilities. Retail investors remain a major force in daily trading, making sentiment swings sharper when liquidity thins. Foreign ownership limits continue to constrain buying in some leading companies. Corporate governance, disclosure quality and settlement infrastructure also remain areas under watch as Vietnam seeks eventual MSCI emerging-market status.

Analysts say the latest inflow will need to be sustained before it can be treated as a durable turning point. A single large session can reflect short-covering, index positioning or tactical buying after a sell-off. A lasting reversal would require more consistent foreign participation, firmer currency conditions, stable oil prices and evidence that earnings growth can match valuations after the market’s strong run.

Under the government-to-government (G2G) framework, guided by both central banks, and with participation from multiple industry stakeholders, the payment linkage has become a benchmark for digital finance cooperation between China and Indonesia, creating profound impact in the following ways.

First, the linkage delivers convenient, secure, and efficient cross-border payment services to the people of both countries, facilitating bilateral people-to-business exchanges and promoting trade relations.

Second, UnionPay has fully leveraged its role as the hub of the payment industry, collaborating with Ant International and Bank of China (Hong Kong) Jakarta Branch to set a prime example of Chinese enterprises working in concert for global expansion.

Third, the project pioneers bilateral local currency settlement, whereby transactions made by Indonesian wallets in the Chinese mainland are settled in RMB, and transactions made by Chinese wallets in Indonesia are settled in Indonesian Rupiah—effectively enhancing the acceptance and user stickiness of the RMB in international markets.

Fourth, the initiative creates a replicable, scalable framework for cross-border payment connectivity, paving the way for an expansion into more regions across the globe, such as Latin America and Europe.

With the full rollout, two-way cross-border QR code payments have achieved near-nationwide coverage. So far, payment networks in seven out of the eleven ASEAN nations are interoperable with UnionPay.

Chinese users can now use the UnionPay App, banking apps integrated with the UnionPay MobileWallet Connect, and Alipay to make QR payments at tens of millions of QRIS (Quick Response Code Indonesian Standard) merchant locations across Indonesia. Likewise, visitors from Indonesia can pay to UnionPay and Alipay QR merchants in the Chinese mainland with dozens of major Indonesian wallets, such as MyBCA, OVO, DANA, GoPay, Mandiri and ShopeePay.

In recent years, UnionPay continues to grow its global card and QR payment networks and enhance its cross-border payment ecosystem. To date, UnionPay has launched over 200 UnionPay-powered wallets in 37 countries and regions outside the Chinese mainland. Since the beginning of 2026, transactions made by these wallets in China have doubled year-on-year in both transaction count and value, while the number of QR payments made outside the mainland by the UnionPay App and Chinese partner wallets has surged over 300% year-on-year. Moving forward, UnionPay will remain committed to its strategic vision of “Trusted Ties, Shared Success”, scale up two-way payment linkages, enhance user experiences, and deliver more benefits to consumers worldwide.

Hashtag: #UnionPay

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

The latest response includes curbs on bulk diesel purchases at retail outlets, a willingness to let the fiscal deficit widen beyond the Budget target, and measures to pull in overseas capital as policymakers try to contain pressure on inflation, subsidies and the balance of payments. The measures mark a sharp shift from the calmer macroeconomic backdrop at the start of the financial year, when lower inflation and steady growth had given authorities room to focus on consolidation.

Retail fuel outlets run by public sector oil marketing companies have been told to cap high-speed diesel sales at 200 litres per customer or vehicle per day. The restriction, planned for up to 90 days, is aimed at preventing hoarding and stopping commercial users from shifting large purchases to retail pumps, where prices are lower than bulk supply rates. Diesel bought from retail outlets cannot be resold, and dealers have been asked to ensure that sales go directly into vehicle tanks or approved containers.

The decision followed a surge in purchases from retail pumps after the conflict in West Asia widened the gap between retail and bulk diesel prices. Trucking firms, contractors and other commercial users have sought cheaper supplies, adding pressure on state-run fuel retailers that already carry most of the retail burden. Diesel accounts for a large share of transport and farm fuel demand, making any disruption politically sensitive as the kharif sowing season approaches.

The fiscal impact is becoming harder to ignore. The Budget had set the fiscal deficit target for 2026-27 at 4.3% of gross domestic product, after 4.4% in the revised estimate for 2025-26. Officials are now prepared to tolerate a higher deficit, potentially around 4.8% of GDP, if subsidy costs and energy-related spending rise further. Fertiliser subsidies are also expected to climb as global input costs move up, while fuel-related tax and pricing decisions could reduce revenue flexibility.

Spending cuts across ministries are being examined, though the Centre is likely to avoid sharp reductions in capital expenditure unless market conditions deteriorate further. Infrastructure spending has been one of the main pillars of growth in the past few years, and cutting it too deeply would risk weakening private investment at a time when companies are already facing higher transport and raw material costs.

The rupee has become the other pressure point. It strengthened on Friday after Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, but the currency remains vulnerable to oil spikes because India depends heavily on imported crude. The Reserve Bank of India has introduced measures to attract dollar inflows, including support for foreign currency deposits and lower-cost hedging routes for overseas borrowing by state-run companies. Large lenders are preparing dollar bond issues, and banks expect a stronger push to tap non-resident deposits over the coming months.

Inflation has also started to reflect the shock. Retail inflation rose to 3.93% in May from 3.48% in April, with food and fuel costs moving higher. The reading remains close to the central bank’s 4% target, but the risk is that higher diesel prices feed into freight, farm operations and food distribution. Any weak monsoon spell linked to El Niño conditions would add another layer of pressure.

The Reserve Bank of India’s June package centres on Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank deposits, or FCNR deposits, a long-used channel through which overseas citizens place foreign-currency funds with banks. The decisive shift lies in the way the central bank has structured the swap window and permitted banks to use incentives, including leverage, to make the deposits more attractive to wealthy overseas savers.

Under the scheme, banks can mobilise fresh three- to five-year FCNR deposits between 8 June and 30 September 2026 and swap the dollars with the RBI. The facility effectively removes the usual hedging burden that makes such deposits expensive for banks, as the central bank absorbs the foreign-exchange cost. The operational window will remain available until mid-October for eligible deposits raised during the mobilisation period.

The change has revived memories of 2013, when a similar facility helped banks raise about $34 billion during a period of sharp rupee weakness. This time, estimates from market participants range from about $20 billion to nearly $50 billion, depending on deposit pricing, rupee expectations, global interest rates and the ability of banks to market the product aggressively in the Gulf, North America, Britain and other diaspora-heavy markets.

Punjab National Bank chief executive Ashok Chandra has said banks could collectively raise $35 billion to $40 billion, with his own institution aiming for about $2.5 billion to $3 billion. Other lenders, including Canara Bank, Federal Bank and Indian Bank, are expected to compete for deposits by offering returns that can compare favourably with low-risk dollar assets, particularly once the swap benefit is factored into their pricing.

The subtle but consequential part of the circular is the permission for banks to offer leverage to depositors. That means eligible clients may be able to borrow abroad and place the proceeds into FCNR deposits, amplifying inflows beyond what would have arrived through ordinary savings alone. Market analysts see this as the feature that could lift the scheme from a modest stabilisation tool into a sizeable capital-flow channel.

The RBI has paired the deposit push with broader measures designed to deepen debt-market participation and ease pressure on the currency. These include expanding access to government securities, relaxing certain concentration limits, and improving the investment framework for foreign portfolio investors. The package comes after the rupee touched record lows, weighed down by elevated crude prices, portfolio outflows and a stronger dollar environment.

The immediate market reaction has been visible in government bonds. Short-end yields have fallen as banks and overseas investors reassessed the likely liquidity impact of dollar inflows converted into rupees. The two- to five-year segment has drawn stronger demand, while the curve has steepened as longer tenors remain more exposed to global rate movements and fiscal supply concerns.

For banks, the economics are straightforward. Without central bank support, hedging a multi-year dollar liability into rupees can wipe out much of the advantage of raising FCNR deposits. With the RBI taking that cost away, lenders can offer higher headline rates to overseas depositors while still obtaining rupee liquidity at competitive levels. The exemption from reserve requirements on eligible deposits further improves the economics by freeing banks from maintaining cash reserve ratio and statutory liquidity ratio buffers on those funds.

The policy also serves a macroeconomic purpose. Large dollar inflows can strengthen reserves, cushion the balance of payments and reduce the need for more aggressive currency-market intervention. They can also help offset pressure from oil import costs and equity-market withdrawals, both of which have weighed on external sentiment during the current financial year.

Yet the scheme carries risks. Leveraged deposits can be sensitive to interest-rate differentials and currency expectations. If global yields move sharply higher or confidence in the rupee weakens, flows may become less durable. The one-year lock-in reduces early withdrawal risk, but it does not fully eliminate rollover pressure once deposits mature. Banks also need to manage concentration risk, especially if a large share of funds comes from a narrow group of depositors or geographies.

By K Raveendran Resolution of the US-Israel war with Iran now appears further away than at any point in the conflict, with the latest American strikes pushing global markets into a more unsettled phase. The US launch of retaliatory attacks on Iranian defence and radar systems after Washington accused Tehran of responsibility for the downing […]

The article India’s Fiscal Shield Comes Into Focus As Hormuz Crisis Darkens Outlook appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).