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The caution comes after the Japanese currency surged to its strongest levels since February, helped by mounting conviction that the central bank will lift its policy rate at its September 17-18 meeting and by speculation that major domestic investors will shift more money out of overseas assets. The dollar fell below 153 yen this week before recovering some ground.

Barclays’ assessment challenges the increasingly bullish market view that the yen has entered a durable appreciation phase. The bank said the latest move has been driven by powerful expectations rather than a fully established change in capital flows or monetary policy, leaving the currency vulnerable if either catalyst disappoints.

Markets have moved close to fully pricing a quarter-point Bank of Japan increase to 1.25 per cent this month. Expectations strengthened after policymakers signalled greater concern over inflation and currency weakness. Board member Kazuyuki Masu said on Thursday that the central bank could be forced to raise rates more rapidly if underlying inflation accelerates, while stressing that decisions would depend on incoming data.

A survey of economists published this week also showed a broad expectation that the Bank of Japan will raise rates to 1.25 per cent in September, with further tightening projected during 2027. That outlook has encouraged investors to unwind positions built around Japan’s comparatively low borrowing costs and has increased demand for the yen.

The second pillar of the rally is the prospect that Japanese pension funds and other large institutions will direct more capital into domestic bonds and equities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said in July that the government wanted pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund, to make substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets.

That statement triggered speculation that the GPIF, one of the world’s largest pension managers, could reduce its foreign exposure. Its portfolio stood at about 320.4 trillion yen at the end of June, with 25.59 per cent in domestic bonds, 24.48 per cent in domestic equities, 24.60 per cent in foreign bonds and 25.33 per cent in foreign equities, official data show.

A major change in those allocations could generate significant yen buying because foreign assets would have to be sold or currency exposure reduced. Rising Japanese government bond yields have strengthened the argument for keeping more capital at home. The 10-year government bond yield has reached levels not seen for decades, increasing the relative attraction of domestic fixed-income holdings.

Fitch Ratings said this week that higher Japanese yields could encourage banks, insurers and other institutional investors to retain more funds domestically. It also expects Bank of Japan policy rates to rise faster than markets had previously assumed, though it has not projected a wholesale withdrawal from overseas markets.

Evidence of repatriation has nevertheless remained mixed. The GPIF’s June-quarter figures showed domestic bond holdings rising in value while their portfolio share remained close to the fund’s 25 per cent strategic target. Foreign assets still accounted for roughly half of the portfolio, underscoring the scale of adjustment that would be required for pension flows to become a sustained source of yen demand.

The currency’s rise has also been reinforced by the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, in which investors borrow cheaply in Japan to purchase higher-yielding assets elsewhere. Cross-border yen borrowing reached about 360 trillion yen in March, making abrupt changes in exchange-rate expectations capable of producing sizeable market moves.

The yen had fallen to around 164 per dollar in July before authorities in Japan and the United States intervened jointly in the foreign-exchange market. Its subsequent recovery accelerated this month as traders attached greater weight to tighter monetary policy and domestic capital repatriation.

The proposal is expected to feature at the BRICS leaders’ summit in New Delhi on September 12 and 13, where India, as this year’s chair, is seeking agreement on ways to lower the cost and speed up the settlement of trade, tourism and remittance payments among member states.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said last month that BRICS members were examining links between their fast-payment systems and central bank digital currencies, with a payments task force considering several options. He stressed that discussions remained at an exploratory stage and that no model had been agreed.

India’s preference is for interoperable national systems rather than either a common currency or centrally controlled BRICS payments architecture. Officials have framed the initiative around efficiency, cheaper transactions and use of sovereign currencies, distancing it from proposals that could be interpreted as an organised campaign to displace the US dollar.

That distinction has become politically important as BRICS members debate how far financial cooperation should go. Russia and some other members have advocated stronger alternatives to Western-dominated payment channels, while India has repeatedly ruled out backing a common BRICS currency and has resisted presenting financial initiatives as a de-dollarisation project.

The RBI earlier recommended that linking BRICS members’ digital currencies be placed on the summit agenda. Such an arrangement could allow transactions to be settled directly through participating central banks or financial institutions, reducing dependence on multiple correspondent banks and potentially cutting foreign-exchange and processing costs.

Central bank digital currencies are electronic forms of sovereign money issued by monetary authorities. Unlike privately issued stablecoins, their value and settlement are backed by central banks. India has been testing the digital rupee since 2022 and has added features including programmability and offline functionality as the RBI studies how it can complement payment methods.

Malhotra has said cross-border payments offer scope for lower costs, particularly in retail transactions. He has also said the RBI will continue efforts to promote greater international use of the rupee and encourage settlement in local currencies where commercially viable.

India is pursuing payment connectivity on a parallel track through the Unified Payments Interface, its instant retail payments platform. Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week called for UPI to be connected with payment systems in more countries. UPI is already available or linked with services in several overseas markets, including Singapore and the United Arab Emirates.

The BRICS discussions nevertheless extend beyond retail payment links. Officials have also been examining whether digital currencies issued by central banks can provide a secure settlement layer for transactions between member economies without requiring the creation of a shared currency or new supranational monetary authority.

Technical and policy obstacles remain. CBDC systems across BRICS countries are at different stages of development, and any cross-border arrangement would require agreement on interoperability, cybersecurity, data standards, foreign-exchange conversion, liquidity, governance and legal responsibility when transactions fail or disputes arise.

Trade imbalances pose another complication because a country receiving more of another member’s currency than it can use may be reluctant to accumulate balances. Policymakers have therefore also discussed mechanisms involving currency swaps and other settlement arrangements to deal with mismatches in bilateral trade.

The BRICS grouping now comprises 11 members, making consensus more difficult than when it consisted only of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The expanded membership includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia, while Saudi Arabia has participated in BRICS meetings as its membership status has remained subject to clarification.

The currency came under pressure after Brent crude held above $100 a barrel amid continuing tensions in West Asia, reinforcing worries about higher energy costs for a country that imports more than three-quarters of its crude oil requirements. The rupee had settled at 95.1050 against the dollar on Wednesday after touching 95.2250 during the session.

Dealers said demand for dollars from oil importers, corporate debt repayments and hedging activity added to the pressure. State-run banks were also seen supplying dollars during trading, an action market participants associated with efforts by the Reserve Bank of India to limit excessive volatility in the foreign-exchange market.

Brent crude traded around $101-$102 a barrel during Asian hours after crossing the $100 mark on Wednesday. The move followed renewed military tensions involving the United States and Iran and heightened concern about shipping and energy supply through the Gulf, including routes linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher oil prices are particularly significant for the rupee because petroleum imports are paid largely in dollars. A sustained rise in crude can widen India’s trade deficit, increase demand for foreign currency from refiners and add to inflationary pressure, creating a less favourable backdrop for the local currency.

The rupee has lost roughly 0.7 per cent over the previous two sessions, with traders saying the effect of higher oil prices has become more visible after the currency had initially shown resilience. The movement has also coincided with caution across Asian markets and pressure on domestic equities.

Benchmark share indices were subdued on Thursday after suffering sharp losses in the previous session. The Sensex had dropped 813.35 points, or 1.08 per cent, on Wednesday to close at 74,764.23, while the Nifty 50 fell 203.60 points, or 0.86 per cent, to 23,431.50. The sell-off reflected concern that expensive crude could complicate the inflation and growth outlook.

The Reserve Bank has intervened intermittently in the currency market during periods of sharp rupee weakness. Traders said dollar sales by state-run banks helped the currency recover from Wednesday’s intraday low, although market participants expected central-bank support to restrain volatility rather than reverse pressure created by oil prices and capital flows.

Foreign-exchange dealers were also monitoring overseas portfolio movements. Expectations of capital outflows and demand linked to corporate payments have increased near-term dollar requirements, while the dollar index remained close to 99 against a basket of major currencies, offering only limited relief to emerging-market currencies.

The rise in crude has revived concern over India’s external balances. A higher oil import bill can feed into the current-account deficit if export earnings and other inflows do not offset the additional cost. It can also increase costs for transport, manufacturing and other energy-intensive sectors, depending on the extent to which international prices are passed through domestically.

Domestic fuel prices have so far remained comparatively insulated from the latest jump in international crude, but refiners and oil-marketing companies face greater pressure when global prices rise sharply while retail prices are unchanged. That gap can affect corporate margins and, if sustained, increase the broader fiscal and inflationary policy challenge.

Bond and equity markets are also watching the oil move for its implications for monetary policy. Higher imported energy costs can make inflation management more difficult, while weaker risk appetite may intensify foreign portfolio selling. Traders said those factors could keep the rupee volatile even if the central bank continues to provide dollar liquidity during periods of disorderly movement.

The Japanese currency traded around 155.7 per dollar after a volatile session, having surged sharply earlier in the week as investors increased bets that the Bank of Japan could tighten policy faster than previously anticipated. The move brought the yen close to levels last seen after joint US-Japan currency intervention in July.

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, well above the 56,000 gain economists had expected, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 per cent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. June and July payroll figures were also revised higher by a combined 55,000 jobs.

Employment gains were concentrated in food services and drinking places, which added 62,000 jobs, and local government education, which gained 42,000. Construction added 22,000 positions and manufacturing 16,000, while information employment declined. The average private-sector workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours during August, official data showed.

The dollar initially strengthened after the release as traders raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at its September 15-16 meeting. Fed funds futures implied roughly a 59 per cent chance of a quarter-point rise after the data, up from about 50 per cent beforehand.

Those gains faded as investors turned attention to next week’s inflation figures, which are expected to play a decisive role in the Fed’s assessment. Producer-price data are due on Thursday, followed by consumer-price figures on Friday. Economists expect annual core consumer inflation to ease to 2.4 per cent from 2.5 per cent in July.

The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six major peers, was up about 0.1 per cent at 99.10 later in the session. The euro was little changed around $1.162, while sterling held near $1.35 after showing limited reaction to the US employment report.

The yen’s weekly strength has been driven primarily by expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening. Markets were pricing a high probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the central bank’s September 17-18 meeting after policy board member Hajime Takata said officials should act nimbly to counter intensifying inflation pressures rather than adhere to a predictable schedule.

Speculation about a larger or faster sequence of rate increases has also encouraged investors to unwind short-yen positions that had accumulated while Japan maintained substantially lower borrowing costs than other major economies.

Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said on Friday that authorities remained alert to exchange-rate movements, maintaining Tokyo’s warning that it was prepared to respond to excessive volatility. Officials have repeatedly stressed that intervention is aimed at disorderly market moves rather than defending a specific exchange rate.

The yen had approached 155.21 per dollar, the strongest level reached after July’s coordinated intervention. A sustained break beyond that level would put the currency at its strongest point since early May.

The broader policy outlook remains finely balanced. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he was inclined to support unchanged rates if incoming data confirmed that inflation pressures were cooling, tempering expectations of an imminent increase before the payrolls figures were released.

Wage data offered some support for that argument despite the stronger hiring numbers. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 per cent in August and were 3.1 per cent higher than a year earlier, the weakest annual increase since June 2021.

Higher Japanese government bond yields have also fuelled speculation that domestic investors could shift some overseas holdings back to Japan. Market participants have focused particularly on insurers and pension funds with large foreign-asset portfolios as relative returns on Japanese debt improve.