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Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, is committing up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the event-prediction platform at about $8 billion before the investment. ICE will serve as a global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data and will collaborate on tokenisation and related infrastructure.

Polymarket is gearing up for its return to U. S. markets following a multi-year regulatory hiatus. The firm acquired QCEX, a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse with CFTC licensure, for $112 million, enabling it to operate under U. S. regulation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has granted a no-action letter for event contracts, clearing a path for U. S. users to trade again.

Born in 2020 under the leadership of CEO Shayne Coplan, Polymarket permits users to wager on outcomes by purchasing “Yes” or “No” tokens. The market price implies a probability. Winning tokens settle at $1, while losing ones expire worthless. All trades occur via peer-to-peer smart contracts built on the Polygon blockchain.

Polymarket saw a surge in profile during the 2024 U. S. presidential campaign, when trading volume on election markets surpassed $3 billion. Its probability signals have since been picked up by mainstream outlets and financial analysts as indicators of public sentiment and forecasting.

ICE’s strategic investment reflects growing institutional interest in prediction markets. With control over NYSE infrastructure and deep data capabilities, ICE aims to monetise sentiment analytics and integrate such signals alongside traditional financial indicators. ICE has maintained that the investment will not materially affect its 2025 financials.

Coplan has acknowledged the significance of the tie-up, saying the partnership “marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream.” Jeffrey Sprecher, ICE’s CEO, praised the union as an alignment between legacy market infrastructure and next-generation decentralised finance innovation.

Observers suggest that navigating regulatory risk is central to Polymarket’s success. Its three-year exit from U. S. users followed a 2022 settlement with the CFTC over unregistered derivatives operations. That settlement barred U. S. users from accessing the platform, and investigations into U. S. usage had been a cloud over the company. With the regulatory clearance and ICE backing, Polymarket is now executing a comeback in the U. S. domain.

Polymarket also attracted backing from 1789 Capital, a venture fund backed by Donald Trump Jr., which joined its advisory board earlier this year. Kalshi, a peer prediction market, won a favorable court ruling against the CFTC last year, setting precedents that influence Polymarket’s legal and operational landscape. The broader industry is watching closely, as the success or failure of this bet by ICE may signal whether prediction markets can transition from niche crypto tools to mainstream financial instruments.

Shayne Coplan, born in 1998 and a former dropout from New York University, is now recognised as the youngest self-made billionaire under the Bloomberg index following the deal. His trajectory illustrates the accelerating nexus among finance, tech and speculative market platforms.

By Nitya Chakraborty There is a big possibility of renewal of India-US bilateral ties impacting the ongoing trade talks following the proposed one on one meeting between the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the U.S. President Donald Trump during their presence in Kuala Lumpur to attend the summit of ASEAN members on October 26 […]

The article Trump-Modi Meet At ASEAN Summit In Malaysia Can Remove Irritants In Indo-US Ties appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

By Girish Linganna In a move that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi arrived in New Delhi on October 9 for an eight-day official visit that marks a watershed moment in India’s foreign policy. His meetings with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, followed by visits to […]

The article The Price Of Pragmatism: What India Gains (And Loses) By Courting The Taliban appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund ADQ has shown preliminary interest in acquiring a majority stake in SAC, the operator of Catania Airport in Sicily, sources said, as investor focus intensifies on Italy’s regional infrastructure.

The sale process is not yet formally launched; however, ENAC is evaluating a draft tender expected to receive approval by late October to set the transaction in motion. Under the plan, between 51 % and 66 % of SAC would be sold. The asset is valued at between €500 million and €600 million, underpinned by projected core earnings in excess of €30 million.

SAC, controlled by local authorities and chambers of commerce, manages both Catania–Fontanarossa—Italy’s fifth busiest airport by traffic—and Comiso Airport in southern Sicily. The operating concession runs through 2049. The Sicilian airport served over 12.3 million passengers in 2024.

Privatisation of Sicily’s airports has been under discussion since 2022, when SAC appointed Mediobanca to advise on structuring the deal. Local shareholders have recently approved calls for an international tender and adopted updated industrial plans to attract private capital, while pledging to retain a qualified minority stake.

Antonino Belcuore, special commissioner of the Chamber of Commerce of South and East Sicily, welcomed ADQ’s interest, stating that it underscores the strategic importance of the asset and aligns with the broader push for privatisation in Sicily. ADQ declined to comment; SAC and ENAC have not issued responses.

ADQ currently holds investments spanning transport and logistics, including interests in Abu Dhabi Airports and Etihad Airways, and manages a portfolio worth approximately US$251 billion. Analysts say its appearance among suitors signals growing appetite from Gulf-based capital for stable, long-term infrastructure assets in Europe.

Observers flag that the EU and Italy are increasingly receptive to foreign capital inflows into infrastructure, particularly where public budgets remain constrained. The potential deal dovetails with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s agenda to deepen ties with Gulf states, exemplified by agreements under which the UAE committed to invest US$40 billion across strategic sectors in Italy.

Should ADQ or another bidder proceed to formal offers, the Catania sale could set benchmarks for airport privatisations in southern Europe. Authorities will need to balance investor returns with preserving public oversight, territorial interests, and aviation safety standards.

Local stakeholders—including regional governments and municipalities—are expected to negotiate protections within the concession framework to safeguard continuity of services, employment, and regional development. Meanwhile, potential bidders are assessing traffic trends, inflation, regulatory risk, and concession duration as they size their offers.

The sale of SAC would open a new chapter in Italy’s ongoing wave of airport privatisations, which has involved assets in the UK and across European markets. That backdrop provides precedent and comparators for valuation, regulatory design, and deal structures.

Since its arrival in September 2025, the XPL token has drawn attention as the fulcrum of Plasma’s stablecoin-first blockchain vision. The network, engineered to process high-volume stablecoin transfers with minimal friction, stakes much on XPL’s design, distribution, and incentive architecture. A close look at how the token functions, how it has been received in markets, and what early ecosystem moves suggest reveals both promise and pitfalls.

XPL is conceived as the backbone of network security, transaction operations, and ecosystem growth. Under Plasma’s model, validators will stake XPL to secure the network under the PlasmaBFT consensus protocol, earning rewards in return. Meanwhile, the token also acts as the medium for executing non-basic transactions and participating in governance-like decisions tied to ecosystem programs. In that sense, XPL parallels Bitcoin’s role on the Bitcoin network and Ether’s role on Ethereum, though with nuances shaped by Plasma’s stablecoin orientation. The team states that its architecture deliberately ties token mechanics to campaign-driven incentives designed to migrate traditional financial flows onto its rails.

From a distribution perspective, Plasma launched with a fixed supply of 10 billion XPL. Ten percent was allocated to a public sale, while 40 percent was reserved for ecosystem and growth initiatives. At mainnet beta, 8 percent of the total supply was unlocked to support initial liquidity, partner incentives, and launch integrations. The remainder—particularly allocations for team, investors, and long-term contributors—follows graded vesting schedules to temper sudden sell pressure. In the public sale design, non-U. S. participants’ tokens were fully unlocked at launch, while U. S. participants face a 12-month lockup. This dual-track unlocking scheme aims to balance inclusion and capital discipline.

The tokenomics also include a built-in inflation schedule and fee mechanics intended to contain supply pressure. Initial validator rewards are targeted around 5 percent per annum, with planned reductions over time toward 3 percent baseline. Meanwhile, the protocol supports a form of fee burn inspired by EIP-1559; as transaction usage scales, some portion of fees will be removed from supply, offsetting inflation. The combined effect is intended to sustain staking incentives without runaway dilution. Another technical feature is Plasma’s “paymaster” system, which allows standard USDT transfers to carry zero fees, subsidized by the protocol itself. That mechanism reduces the necessity for every user to hold XPL merely to pay gas, lowering adoption friction.

Market reception to XPL turned dramatic almost immediately. At launch, the network held more than USD 2 billion in stablecoin liquidity across over 100 DeFi protocols. Within 24 hours of trading, XPL surged by over 50 percent in some reports—a mark of speculative demand meeting limited immediate circulating supply. Some early buyers from the public sale reportedly reaped significant multiples, even as Plasma distributed bonus tokens to pre-deposit participants regardless of purchase. At peak, XPL reportedly hit above USD 1.50 before retracing to levels around USD 0.90 to USD 1.10. Observers estimated its fully diluted value approaching USD 8–10 billion, reflecting soaring expectations baked into launch pricing.

Yet that market euphoria also exposes structural tensions. The disparity between circulating supply and total supply creates a potential “float risk”—many tokens locked under vesting may exert downward pressure as unlocks commence. The timing and pacing of those unlocks will test whether early demand can be sustained under growing supply. Furthermore, while the paymaster model reduces friction, it also transfers the burden of fee subsidies to the protocol’s reserves. If usage scales unpredictably, that subsidy cost could challenge sustainability unless fee revenue or ecosystem yield compensates.

Another variable is how decentralized and secure the validator structure becomes. The strength of PlasmaBFT relies on meaningful decentralization and active participation. If validator concentration remains high or slashing risks are unevenly applied, token holders may question whether XPL truly underpins a secure, trust-minimized system. The use of reward slashing somewhat mitigates direct capital loss risk, but critics argue it may weaken incentives for strict validator discipline.

Beyond core mechanics, XPL’s ecosystem deployment matters. Early integrations offer a glimpse: Plasma granted XPL funding to Clearpool to support PayFi, a stablecoin‐settled credit infrastructure. That move reflects a play to establish secondary use cases—credit rails, yield protocols, merchant flows—that could entrench XPL usage beyond staking and fees. Meanwhile, Binance’s announcement of a 75 million XPL airdrop tied to its HODLer program signals aggressive token distribution into retail investor hands. That distribution may expand user base but also risks speculative churn.

On the regulatory front, XPL must navigate emerging scrutiny. Since stablecoins straddle monetary and securities domain, a blockchain built entirely around them invites questions about oversight and compliance. To date, Plasma has employed jurisdictional filtering, KYC onboarding, and cautious distribution to U. S. investors, but scaling into global payments heightens exposure. If major jurisdictions impose stricter rules on stablecoin issuance or transfer, XPL’s value proposition may face constraints or require adaptation.

Gemini has secured registration with AUSTRAC and formally established its Australian arm, positioning itself as a regulated digital currency provider in the country. With the move, Australians can now trade with Australian dollars through local payment rails and the firm has named a dedicated country head to lead its strategy.

The new entity, Gemini Intergalactic Australia Pty Ltd, is now recognised by AUSTRAC as a digital currency provider, enabling full operations in compliance with Australia’s anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing laws. Local deposit and withdrawal options via PayID and Australia’s New Payments Platform will be enabled, reducing reliance on cross-border transfers.

Saad Ahmed, Gemini’s head of APAC, said the expansion aligns with robust demand in Australia’s crypto market, which the company estimates at roughly 22–25 per cent adoption. He emphasised that the decision to push into Australia preceded the government’s latest regulatory proposals. The firm plans to apply for an Australian Financial Services License to roll out advanced services such as staking and lending, but these will not be available at launch.

To lead its local presence, Gemini has appointed James Logan as Head of Australia. Logan was formerly in leadership roles at Luno and Bitget in Australia, thus bringing regional experience in crypto operations and regulatory compliance. His responsibilities include building partnerships, scaling operations, and navigating evolving policy frameworks.

Gemini’s entry comes amid intensifying regulatory focus in Australia. The government recently released draft legislation that would require crypto exchanges to hold an AFSL under the Corporations Act, thus applying the same regulatory rigour to digital assets as to traditional finance firms. Some industry observers view the move as a consolidation trigger—smaller platforms may struggle to absorb compliance costs.

Beyond regulation, banking integration remains a competitive differentiator. Australian customers have long faced friction when depositing and withdrawing via crypto platforms due to banks restricting or flagging such transactions. Gemini’s local setup aims to mitigate such barriers by partnering with Australian payment systems and financial institutions.

In the competitive landscape, Gemini will go head to head with established players such as Independent Reserve, CoinSpot, Binance Australia and OKX. While some already operate under established local compliance frameworks, Gemini emphasises institutional-grade infrastructure, regulatory integrity and global liquidity as its advantages.

Analysts view the timing of Gemini’s move as strategic. The firm’s recent listing on Nasdaq, in which it raised USD 425 million, has strengthened its capital base and credibility. Establishing operations in Australia now allows it to lock in market share under current rules, ahead of any stricter licensing regime.

Australia’s crypto adoption has surged in recent years. Surveys and industry reports suggest that by 2025 nearly one in four Australians hold digital assets—a rate comparable to the U. S. This growth, along with rising institutional interest, makes the market an increasingly attractive target for global exchanges.

Gemini has had a presence in Australia since 2019, serving local users via its global platform but with limited features and higher costs. Under the new structure, native AUD deposits, enhanced trading pairs, and faster settlement are expected to improve user experience and price competitiveness.

While Gemini’s initial rollout will omit certain features like crypto-backed credit or staking, the company says it is pacing its product expansion in tandem with regulatory clarity. It is adopting a “wait-and-watch” posture with respect to the government’s consultation process, but remains confident that its operations will comply.

The Australian push is one element in Gemini’s broader global strategy. It has also moved ahead in Europe under MiCA and is exploring tokenised stock trading in key markets. The firm now claims to serve customers in over 60 jurisdictions and has processed hundreds of billions of dollars in cumulative trading volume.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company announced that its six publicly traded subsidiaries will distribute AED 158 billion in dividends through to 2030, nearly doubling the AED 86 billion cumulative payout since the first listing in 2017.

The announcement came during ADNOC’s inaugural Investor Majlis in Abu Dhabi, where the group underscored its commitment to shareholder returns and transparent governance. The dividend programme is subject to customary approvals and will provide long-term visibility to investors across its diversified portfolio of listed entities.

ADNOC’s six listed companies currently account for more than AED 550 billion in market capitalisation on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and represent nearly 40 percent of the annual dividends distributed on the market. Under the new plan, three additional entities—ADNOC Distribution, ADNOC Gas, and ADNOC Logistics & Services—will join ADNOC Drilling in issuing quarterly dividends.

Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC’s Managing Director and CEO, also serving as UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, described the dividend target as a “landmark step” adding clarity to the group’s capital return path. He stated the move would “enhance value” for citizens, residents, and partners, and reaffirmed ADNOC’s focus on cost discipline, efficiency and growth.

Each listed unit announced specific dividend floors and policy reforms. ADNOC Drilling set a cumulative floor of AED 25 billion by 2030, representing a 26 percent minimum return over the period. ADNOC Gas pledged a target of AED 90 billion, with dividends moving to a quarterly basis from 2025 onward. ADNOC Logistics & Services raised its guidance to AED 8.1 billion for 2025–2030 and intends to adopt quarterly distributions from the third quarter of 2025.

Other units will also tighten their dividend structures. ADNOC Distribution expanded its dividend policy through 2030 and targets cumulative returns exceeding 30 percent over the 2025–2030 period. Borouge affirmed a dividend floor for 2025 and envisaged a payout ratio of 90 percent of net profit in future years. Fertiglobe flagged interim dividend payments and share buybacks for 2025 to support yield.

Beyond dividends, ADNOC disclosed key developments across its upstream, LNG and petrochemical segments. ADNOC Gas has secured a long-term feedstock agreement worth AED 147 billion with its Ruwais LNG facility. Over 80 percent of project capacity is under contract. The group also reported that the merger of its petrochemical assets with OMV—that is, combining Borouge and Borealis into Borouge Group International —remains on course for completion in Q1 2026. Financing for the transaction, valued at AED 56.6 billion, is in place and synergies of at least AED 1.8 billion annually have been identified.

Earlier this year, ADNOC transferred its stakes in several listed subsidiaries—namely Distribution, Drilling, Gas and Logistics & Services—to its wholly owned investment arm, XRG, via off-market moves. The transfers, completed or pending regulatory clearance, were explicitly stated not to affect operations, leadership or dividend policies. Control remains with ADNOC via its 100 percent ownership of XRG.

Analysts view the dividend pledge as a strategic signal in a more competitive capital-raising environment. It strengthens the case for long-term investor confidence, especially amid global volatility in energy markets and shifting sector dynamics. Some warn, however, that such large commitments require careful balance with capital expenditure demands, especially for exploration, decarbonisation and upstream expansion to meet rising regional energy and gas demand.

Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is committing up to $2 billion in cash to back Polymarket, giving the prediction-market platform a pre-investment valuation of $8 billion. ICE will also serve as the global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data and collaborate on tokenisation efforts.

The deal signals a bold shift by a major financial infrastructure firm into the realm of speculative markets tied to politics, culture, economics and sports. ICE’s announcement states the investment will not have a material impact on its 2025 financials.

Polymarket, launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, allows traders to take positions on the probability of real-world outcomes. The platform had earlier barred U. S. users after settling in 2022 with the CFTC over operating an unregistered exchange. But it has since acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse for $112 million, positioning itself for compliant U. S. operations.

In public statements, ICE’s Chair and CEO, Jeffrey C. Sprecher, described the move as connecting “trusted financial infrastructure” with a next-generation platform that leverages user behaviour and probability markets. Coplan said the partnership will help bridge “how individuals and institutions use probabilities to understand and price the future.”

Analysts view the crux of ICE’s interest lies in monetising Polymarket’s crowd-driven data. The platform’s users collectively assign probabilities to outcomes, producing sentiment indicators ICE can package and distribute to institutional clients. Michael Ashley Schulman, partner at Running Point Capital Advisors, noted that ICE sees more value in data distribution than in clearing event contracts.

Regulatory conditions have softened under the current federal regime. Polymarket had reported that investigations by the Department of Justice and the CFTC closed without new charges, eliminating a regulatory overhang. Legal experts note that its acquisition of QCEX gives it a structural path to U. S. markets that was unavailable earlier.

Despite that progress, legal risks remain. Some jurisdictions still view event-betting as gambling, not financial activity. In Belgium, for example, authorities recently banned the platform’s use within the country. Polymarket’s own disclosures show it had raised around $205 million in earlier rounds before ICE’s investment, but with limited access to established trading jurisdictions.

Institutional interest in prediction markets has surged since the 2024 U. S. election cycle, which fuelled growth in platforms wagering on election outcomes, geopolitical events and social trends. ICE’s investment may prompt legacy financial firms to explore similar tie-ups or launches of probabilistic trading models.

In markets, ICE’s shares nudged upward following the announcement. The platform’s next test will be demonstrating whether prediction markets, previously the domain of retail and niche crypto users, can scale under institutional frameworks while satisfying securities, derivatives and gambling regulators.

A proposed ETF tracking the TRUMP meme coin has appeared on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s system — an infrastructural step that signals intent, though it falls short of regulatory approval.

Canary Capital, which filed an S-1 registration with the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the ETF, now sees its TRUMP Coin fund listed in DTCC systems alongside other altcoin ETF candidates. The DTCC listing enables clearing and settlement readiness should approval arrive.

Analysts view the development as a technical milestone. Bloomberg ETF specialist Eric Balchunas observed that once a ticker appears on DTCC’s eligibility file, it rarely retracts — underscoring the forward momentum for the product. Nonetheless, he and others caution that DTCC inclusion is procedural and does not guarantee SEC consent.

Canary’s filing proposes that the ETF would offer exposure to the price dynamics of TRUMP token without requiring investors to self-custody the asset. To cover transaction costs inherent in the blockchain architecture, the filing permits the fund to hold up to 5 percent in Solana’s native token SOL, although it will not treat SOL as a core investment.

The TRUMP coin is a Solana Program Library token whose market value hinges heavily on political sentiment, community engagement and volatility rather than fundamental utility. Critics have raised concerns about the blending of political interests with speculative finance, warning of conflicts of interest and reputational risks to the broader crypto ecosystem.

This development coincides with DTCC’s addition of other altcoin ETFs — namely Fidelity’s Solana ETF and Canary’s XRP and Hedera funds — to its eligibility files. These moves have injected renewed optimism into altcoin ETF markets, though all such listings still await the SEC’s green light.

Momentum for altcoin ETFs has accelerated since spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds gained approval. Still, the SEC has kept other proposals on ice, deferring decisions and delaying rulings. The regulator’s patience underscores the risk-management pressures it faces in balancing innovation and investor protection.

Canary’s TRUMP ETF filing follows earlier efforts by Trump Media & Technology Group, which has sought SEC approval for a suite of thematic “Truth Social Funds” ETFs covering areas such as energy, infrastructure and American icons.

By Nitya Chakraborty Just forty eight hours within the external affairs minister Dr. S Jaishankar’s candid statement that Trump has to respect red lines drawn by India at trade talks, Indian officials joining China, Russia, Taliban government of Afghanistan and even Pakistan denouncing President Trump’s bid to take over Bagram air base in Afghanistan, is […]

The article India’s Opposition To Trump Bid To Take Over Bagram Airbase Has Special Significance appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

Oil markets climbed modestly on Wednesday as traders digested OPEC+’s decision to raise production by only 137,000 barrels per day from November — a figure widely viewed as cautious and aimed at managing oversupply pressures. Brent crude gained about 0.7 per cent to $65.93 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate added 0.8 per cent, reaching $62.24.

The measured increase is part of an ongoing tug-of-war between easing supply fears and softening demand estimates. Analysts argue that the restrained hike helped calm immediate market jitters about a flood of new barrels entering global markets. At the same time, the surge in output from non-OPEC producers—especially the United States—is tipping the scale toward a heavier supply environment.

The U. S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2025 forecast for domestic oil production to a record 13.53 million barrels per day, up from earlier projections. That upward revision intensifies concerns that global inventories could swell, placing downward pressure on prices. The EIA warns that crude inventories may build further, potentially squeezing prices in the coming months.

OPEC+ has signalled a cautious approach. The bloc’s members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia alongside six others, opted for incremental supply additions rather than aggressive increases. The decision underscores a balancing act: securing market share without triggering a disruptive oversupply.

Some market watchers believe the group is constrained by internal capability limits and the risk of destabilising the market. Only about 75 per cent of the targeted 2.7 million bpd raise since April has actually materialised, as certain member states struggle to meet output goals. Meanwhile, signs of macro slowdown and tepid fuel demand, especially in Asia and Europe, loom as headwinds.

Large oil majors are already adjusting strategies to navigate the tighter margins. Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies are implementing cost cuts, trimming share buybacks, and streamlining operations to preserve balance sheets. Oil prices under $65 are straining profitability across the sector, particularly for producers with high breaking-even costs. Shell, for instance, has taken a $600 million impairment hit tied to biofuel and remediation operations in Europe.

In Argentina, falling oil revenues threaten the government’s ambitious economic plans centred on energy exports. Output at the country’s Vaca Muerta formation peaked in August but has shown signs of deceleration due to weaker global pricing and elevated costs. Local industry sources warn that strapped fiscal conditions and foreign-exchange restrictions are discouraging further investment.

Futures markets also reflect a state of tension. The structure remains sensitive to signals that either reassure or alarm about supply and demand balances. Traders are closely watching upcoming US inventory data, geopolitical developments affecting Russian shipments, and demand dynamics from China. Some analysts regard the cautious output hike as a temporary reprieve, with the risk that a sharper fall may take prices into the $50–$60 range if oversupply intensifies.

The International Energy Agency projects a potential surplus of 3.3 million barrels per day in 2026, even if current output levels persist — a scenario that would further test OPEC+’s capacity to contain downside. In contrast, OPEC’s internal modeling suggests a smaller deficit under the same conditions, reflecting wide divergences in forecasting assumptions. Investors and policymakers now wait for signs of demand resilience or fresh supply shocks, both of which could dictate whether oil stabilises in the $60s or slips further.