|By Matein Khalid| This was the ghastliest week for global risk assets since September 2011. Not even 290,000 new US jobs in December could negate the raw fear on Wall Street generated by the 10% fall in Shanghai, a yuan depreciation, market meltdowns of 6 – 7% in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Frankfurt, Mumbai and New York. Four months ago, I had published a KT article titled “History’s […]
|By Matein Khalid| Emerging markets were an entirely predictable horror story once again in 2015. The oil/mining bust, currency meltdowns, China’s hard landing, sovereign credit downgrades, banking system crises, corruption scandals and geopolitical crises from Ukraine to Syria, the Black Sea to the South China Sea devastated investor wealth in emerging markets. India’s Sensex and Nifty were down 9% while the rupee has depreciated to 66 […]
|By Matein Khalid| In retrospect, the last six years were a unique period in global central banking, an epic monetary experiment that averted a Great Depression after Lehman’s failure and interbank/credit contagion plunged the world into recession in 2008-9. Yet the Fed (and later Bank of Japan, ECB and even PBOC) quantitative easing also led to asset bubbles, credit market excesses, currency wars and the mispricing of […]
|By Matein Khalid| The plunge in crude oil after OPEC’s Vienna conclave, Dr. Draghi’s failure to resist Bundesbank pressure not to fire another ECB easy money bazooka, Wall Street’s junk bond debacle and an imminent rise in the Fed Funds rate for the first time since 2006 will all shape the next big trades in Planet Forex. The Euro has risen to 1.10 on Draghi’s failure to […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| A new study from IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, has found that external risks, security concerns, and over-indebtedness are perceived as the most serious challenges facing the microfinance sector in the Arab World. The survey, conducted in conjunction with Sanabel, the Microfinance Network of Arab Countries, said tackling those problems will be key to spurring the development of the industry. […]
LAW AND ORDER, HEALTH ARE FOCUS AREAS
By Arun Srivastava
Performance of government, its outreach and initiatives matters but what is most important is the peoples’ perception of the government. It was perception of the Nitish led mahagathbandhan, of being peoples’ friendly and concerned of their aspirations that people voted it to power. But ironically after assuming power the grand alliance government has not made a serious move to consolidate it and make it the USP of the government.
Importance of the perception could be understood from the rout of the BJP in the assembly election. People perceived that the Prime Minister was following the RSS brief. Though it is too early to say that the Nitish government has not succeeded in coming up to the peoples’ perception within a period of fortnight, notwithstanding the chief minister Nitish Kumar personally has
|By Matein Khalid| I was in a pensive-philosophic mood last week as I decompressed from a trip to a hauntingly beautiful post Soviet country in the Caucasus, the land that produced Koba from Gori and Prince Pyotr Bagration, the fallen hero of Tsar Alexander’s imperial guard at Borodino. Yet Georgia gave me time and perspective to think about the financial firestorms on Wall Street, Marounuchi, the Gulf […]
|By Matein Khalid| Saudi Arabia has fascinated me since I first met Hani AZ Yamani as a teenage student all those years ago at Wharton. Hani’s father was Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, legendary Saudi Oil Minister (1962-86) under Kings Faisal, Khalid and Fahd. Sheikh Yamani managed the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks, survived a terrorist assault in Vienna by Carlos the Jackal, midwifed the birth of Saudi […]
UAE. A recent report surveying 150 financial advisors in the UAE – part of a larger Natixis global study of 2,400 advisers in 14 countries across the globe – has revealed that investors making emotional investment decisions in turbulent markets is the top mistake advisors see among individual investors. Advisers are concerned that individual investors tend to be too focused on short-term market events, leading them to […]
|By Matein Khalid| Even as China’s President meets the capo di tutti capi in Seattle, its manufacturing PMI falls to 47, a post Lehman low, with new export orders in a slump. I found it significant that the offshore yuan fell 200 pips to 6.4346 after the PMI. This proves my core argument, outlined a month ago. The Middle Kingdom will respond to its economic decline and […]
QATAR. On Sept. 18, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services affirmed its ‘AA’ long-term and ‘A-1+’ short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the State of Qatar. The outlook is stable. We also affirmed the ‘AA’ long-term issue ratings on the bonds issued by Qatari Diar Finance Q.S.C. and SoQ Sukuk A Q.S.C. RATIONALE Qatar is a wealthy economy; we estimate its GDP per capita […]
|By Matein Khalid| The world’s emerging markets have been savaged by multiple economic, banking, currency and political shocks since 2011. Global emerging markets are far too diverse and nuanced to be analyzed as a single asset class but now trade at a 24% valuation discount to developed markets. The financial markets now price draconian scenarios for earnings, exports, sovereign credit, industrial production and economic growth. The shortage […]
LEBANON. On Sept. 11, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services revised its outlook on the Republic of Lebanon to negative from stable. At the same time, we affirmed our ‘B-/B’ long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings. RATIONALE The outlook revision stems from our view that political uncertainty in Lebanon and regional tensions will continue to weigh on economic growth in the mediumterm. In […]
UAE. A report published today by international real estate advisor Savills has ranked the United States of America (USA), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Singapore respectively as the top three countries for residential investability on the basis of economic growth and market recovery. The new Savills World Residential Investability Ranking focuses on countries with cities and resort locations that have consistently attracted investor interest over recent […]
|By Matein Khalid| The Federal Reserve could well raise its overnight borrowing rate at the next FOMC monetary policy conclave on September 17. Though contagion from China’s 40% stock market meltdown has triggered bear markets from Hong Kong to Frankfurt and plunged Asian/emerging markets equities into ta ghastly replay of 1998’s epic meltdown (General Suharto’s overthrow, the Russian rouble default, Malaysia’s capital controls, the run on the […]
|By Matein Khalid| Hong Kong now trades at 9.6 times earnings and 0.86 book value. Hang Seng valuations were gutted by the protest movements in Central and the Shanghai financial meltdown. The Hang Seng index is down 25% since late May and now trades at six times forward earnings, its post Lehman, post 2014 bottom. Hong Kong trades at its lowest price/book value since the Asian flu […]
|By Matein Khalid| A month ago, I published a column predicting history’s first Made in China global recession. Wall Street finally agreed with me last week after we witnessed the most brutal crash in global equities since October 2008. I have predicated a 20% fall in US equities several times in the last three months and the 1000 point drop in the Dow last week only reinforces […]
|By Matein Khalid| Geopolitics is now another source of risk for the Turkish lira, government debt and Istanbul equities. The Turkish air force is bombing Daish in Syria and the secessionist Kurdish PKK party in northern Iraq. Suicide bombings have killed Turkish citizens in eastern Anatolian cities on the Syrian border. Ankara has given the US a green light to launch military airstrikes from the Incerlik air […]
UAE. After a decade of finding bargains in real estate markets against the backdrop of a secular weak US Dollar, as well as a regime of declining interest rates, foreign investors in the last year have faced the prospect of sharply higher housing prices in Dubai, as their nations’ currencies have fallen against the US dollar. In times of a weak dollar market, real estate prices have […]
UAE. In response to a plethora of exogenous (dollar strength, oil price declines, etc.) as well as endogenous (numerous real estate launches, doubling of transaction fees, Central Bank caps on mortgage etc.) factors, prices and transactional activity have fallen across the freehold markets. In response, Developers in Dubai have offered a variety of incentives to galvanize sales in the form of payment plans that have often stretched […]
While excess capacity and price volatility are among the key challenges faced by the steel industry, digital is shaping the future of metals in a complex business environment, said the managing director of Accenture metals. John Lichtenstein shared his passion for steel and how the industry can address growth challenges in an interview published by Accenture, a multinational management consulting, technology services, and outsourcing company. What are […]
|By Matein Khalid| Every global recession since the OPEC oil shocks of 1973-74 was triggered by a contraction in the $17 trillion US economic colossus. The failure of Lehman Brothers, the meltdown in US subprime mortgages, the impotence of the implicit “Fed/Uncle Sam” put, the ice age in the commercial paper and interbank money markets all tipped the US economy into recession in late 2008 and triggered […]
Gold fell, heading for its largest monthly decline in two years, as the Federal Reserve moved closer to boosting US interest rates for the first time since 2006. While Fed policy makers refrained from signaling the timing of a rate rise after a two-day meeting, they described job gains as solid amid an improving economy, according to a statement Wednesday. The market expects a move as early […]
|By Matein Khalid|So Pearson PLC has sold the FT Group (with its flagship Financial Times newspaper) to Japan’s Nikkei Inc for $1.32 billion. Pearson will use the cash proceeds to increase its investment in education publishing businesses in the US and Canada, now 75% of revenues. This deal is a milestone in the history of newspaper publishing and my own life as an investor/financial journalist. I discovered […]
