France has launched an anti-terror investigation after a policeman was killed and two other officers injured in an apparent Islamist attack in Paris on Thursday that threatens to disrupt the country’s presidential election. French authorities said the suspected gunman had been shot dead in the assault on the Champs-Élysées shortly before 9pm local time. One civilian was also injured in the attack. “We are convinced that the […]
PARIS French centrist Emmanuel Macron is set to come out on top in the first round of France’s presidential election on Sunday as far right leader Marine Le Pen fell further behind him in an Elabe poll published on Friday. However, neither is totally assured a spot in the May 7 runoff round as both conservative Francois Fillon and hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon were seen narrowing Macron […]
By Mark Hosenball and Joseph Menn French voters are being deluged with false stories on social media ahead of the country’s presidential election, though the onslaught of “junk news” is not as severe as that during last year’s U.S. presidential campaign, according to a study by Oxford University researchers. The study to be published Friday and another published on Wednesday add evidence to complaints by officials in […]
By Maiya Keidan and Jemima Kelly | LONDON LONDON Hedge funds lost out on Tuesday after British Prime Minister Theresa May shocked markets by calling a snap election, but those led by humans outsmarted those led by machines, in a reversal of fortunes from the Brexit referendum. While computer-driven hedge funds garnered plaudits for their outperformance in the wake of Britain’s shock vote to leave the European […]
By Sarah White and Yann Le Guernigou | PARIS PARIS Hard-left presidential challenger Jean-Luc Melenchon and conservative Francois Fillon were neck-and-neck behind the frontrunners in an opinion poll on Thursday, as candidates made last-ditch appeals to undecided voters. Voters will cast their ballots on Sunday in the first round of what has transformed into the most unpredictable French election in living memory, with four candidates within reach […]
Britain’s benchmark stock index dipped into negative territory for the year on Wednesday, as investors worry that a stronger pound saps the foreign-based revenues for many of the FTSE 100’s multinational companies. The blue-chip gauge slipped as much as 0.5 per cent on Wednesday by the close of trading. The pound retraced some gains in late trade from session highs above the $1.2850 level after surging on […]
The near-5 per cent advance in the $20tn benchmark S&P 500 this year has been reliant on the performance of only a few dozen stocks — with gains by the likes of Apple and Facebook accounting for more than 20 per cent of the index’s climb. Ten stocks in the index, including ecommerce behemoth Amazon, Google owner Alphabet as well as the more defensive cigarette maker Philip […]
Investors are refusing to call time on expectations of a sustained recovery in the global economy, after propelling global markets to their best quarterly performance since 2013. Money managers say they are willing to look past rising political uncertainty in France and the US and bet on what they view as an acceleration in activity and synchronised economic advances across developed and emerging markets. Expectations of US fiscal stimulus […]
By Ingrid Melander and Michel Rose | PARIS PARIS The two leading candidates in France’s presidential election clashed sharply over Europe in a televised debate on Tuesday night, with centrist Emmanuel Macron accusing the far right’s Marine Le Pen, his anti-European Union rival, of lying. The three-hour debate involves all 11 candidates, some of whom draw one percent or less of support in polls, and a majority […]
Investors face a test of nerve as the second quarter beckons. The rally in US stocks and the dollar sparked by the election of Donald Trump is looking stretched, amid doubts about the president’s ability to deliver fiscal stimulus for the economy that can justify lofty equity valuations. The shifting mood has spurred money into emerging markets and European stocks, with EM currencies enjoying a stellar March […]
PARIS French presidential candidate Francois Fillon, an outsider to win after involvement in financial scandal, said on Monday he would order a parliamentary inquiry into allegations President Francois Hollande interfered in the justice system, if elected. Once the frontrunner, the conservative former prime minister’s poll ratings have slumped since allegations surfaced that he paid his wife and sons hundreds of thousands of euros of public money for […]
Australia’s house prices are rising at their fastest pace in seven years, igniting fears of an emerging property bubble and prompting regulators to crack down on risky bank lending. New figures on Monday show residential property prices have increased 12.9 per cent in the past 12 months, with prices in Sydney surging 18.9 per cent — the fastest rate of growth in almost 15 years. “Four of […]
Here are the main questions facing markets as a new trading week and the start of the second quarter beckons. What are the likely drivers?A host of market-moving events confront investors as the calendar flips over to April. These include France’s presidential elections and the opening salvos of the UK’s divorce from the EU. But there is also the prospect of a sustained recovery in global activity, […]
PARIS/BORDEAUX French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen told a political rally on Sunday that the euro currency which she wants France to ditch was like a knife in the ribs of the French people. The leader of the eurosceptic and anti-immigrant National Front (FN) also told the rally in the city of Bordeaux that the forthcoming election for president could herald a “change in civilization”. Encouraged by […]
01 April 2017 Dubai’s trade performance has shown steady and sustainable growth over the last five years, with non-oil trade volumes in metric tonnes registering a compound growth rate of 6.1% according to figures from Dubai Customs. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment which impacted global trade, Dubai’s trade volumes grew a healthy 8.2% in 2016, compared to the previous year, reflecting the resilience of the Emirate’s economy, and […]
By Marc Leras and Simon Carraud | MARSEILLE/BIGUGLIA, France MARSEILLE/BIGUGLIA, France France’s centrist presidential contender Emmanuel Macron singled out the far-right National Front as his chief rival on Saturday, vowing to win the first round on April 23 as a new poll showed the election race getting tighter. “The National Front, our main opponent, is attacking us on all sides. Never boo them. Fight them,” a defiant […]
MARSEILLE Emmanuel Macron, the independent centrist candidate who is favourite to win the French presidential election, held a meeting with French conservative and security hardliner Christian Estrosi on Saturday during a visit to Marseille. Macron has said he wants to bridge the right-left divide. Estrosi is from a wing of French conservative politics that is far to the right of the Socialist government under which the 39 […]
Hedge funds betting on a sharp drop in global equities suffered further this quarter, while the broader industry’s returns lagged behind those of US and European stocks. The flagship fund of Crispin Odey, who for several years has been warning of a violent bursting of a bubble inflated by central banks, is narrowly down for the year. The fund endured a nearly 50 per cent decline last […]
Investors are flocking back to European equities and propelling a rally across continental stock markets as money managers downplay fears around the upcoming French elections and fallout from Brexit. The shift — which follows a torrid 2016 when investors pulled roughly $100bn from the asset class — has been driven by hopes of a synchronised global economic expansion accelerating. European stock fund managers received $1.5bn in the […]
RBC’s head of cross asset strategy Charlie McElligott dons his full wonksh equity analyst hat today, exposing “The April Effect,” and the specific risk of “nasty double whammy” of levered long-short unwinds should momentum stall. Quick note of warning as we transition into the new quarter, with potential for major thematic / sector / factor reversals in stocks. The following observation regarding April seeing a seasonal ‘momentum’ […]
They don’t go in for pomp and ceremony at the US Federal Reserve. The retirement of Daniel Tarullo next Wednesday will be marked by coffee and doughnuts, according to a person familiar with the send-off. That’s a pity, in a way, as the departure of the 64-year-old member of the board of governors — and the world’s most fearsome bank regulator — marks a seminal moment on […]
LONDON Global food crises worsened significantly in 2016 and conditions look set to deteriorate further this year in some areas with an increasing risk of famine, a report said on Friday. “There is a high risk of famine in some areas of north-eastern Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen because of armed conflict, drought and macro-economic collapse,” the Food Security Information Network (FSIN) said. FSIN, which is […]
By Ingrid Melander and Johnny Cotton | PARIS/MALESHERBES, France PARIS/MALESHERBES, France A 90-minute train ride from the Gare de Lyon station in Paris traces a political gulf between big-city voters and the rest, a divide that has shaken up Britain and the United States and has an outside chance of doing the same in France’s upcoming vote. The further you go, the greater the support for the […]
According to RBC’s cross-asset strategist, Charlie McElligott, two things are behind today’s (painfully volumeless) market rally: i) a return of “policy divergence”, following yesterday’s hawkish announcements by the Fed (“up to 4 hikes”) offset by dovish hints by the ECB, which in turn is powering the dollar higher, and ii) OPEC “deal extension speculation” pushing oil prices higher. The result: the general reflation trade is back on. […]
