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Beijing is preparing to roll out limited fiscal and monetary support as China faces weakening growth, dimming export demand and a fragile property sector. Analysts expect modest interest-rate cuts and additional spending, but size and scope will be constrained by a heavy debt burden and local government financing risks.

Official data shows industrial output rose 5.2% year-on-year in August, the slowest since August 2024, while retail sales grew just 3.4%, their weakest since November 2024. Fixed-asset investment across the first eight months of the year is up only 0.5%. Economic indicators like rising unemployment and falling home prices underscore growing domestic stress. Export demand, especially to the United States, has softened sharply.

Finance Minister Lan Fo’an has asserted that China’s debt remains at a “controllable and reasonable level,” while promising further fiscal reform to bolster consumption and investment. Hidden local government debt is being addressed, with over 60% of local government financing vehicles having mitigated their undisclosed obligations. Beijing has issued about 4 trillion yuan in special bonds out of a 6 trillion‐yuan quota allocated under its 2024-2026 framework.

Despite these assurances, fiscal options appear limited. Local governments, heavily dependent on land sales and property development for revenue, are seeing income dwindle amid the property slump. Many of them carry large off-balance-sheet debts, which limit their ability to borrow further without risking financial instability. Analysts warn that fiscal expansion beyond existing special bond quotas could trigger credit risk and undermine monetary policy transmission.

Monetary policy tools are seen as more flexible. The central bank is expected to pursue cuts in policy interest rates and perhaps reduced reserve requirement ratios for banks. Some targeted measures, such as support for housing and subsidised consumer loans, are under discussion. But reliance on monetary easing brings its own challenges—lower rates may offer limited stimulus when private sector demand is weak and households are wary of debt.

The property sector remains a key drag on growth. Unsold homes, delayed or incomplete projects, and tightly controlled borrowing rules for developers all erode confidence and investment. Local governments, deprived of revenue from land sales due to the real-estate slowdown, face pressures both to stabilize the housing market and to reduce their contingent liabilities.

Gold surged past levels not seen in over four months after growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month boosted demand for bullion, while silver climbed above $40 per ounce for the first time in over a decade.

Spot gold rose around 0.9% to roughly US$3,486.86 per ounce, reaching highs last marked in late April. US gold futures for December delivery also advanced, riding momentum from dovish comments by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and a U. S. appeals court decision that struck down most of former President Trump’s tariffs, which weighed on the dollar. Silver jumped about 2.2%, to near US$40.56, its best since September 2011. Other precious metals followed: platinum added 1.5% and palladium rose around 0.8%.

Investors have been digesting a weakening US dollar, cautious labour market indicators, and signals from policymakers suggesting the Fed could lower rates by 25 basis points. Some traders contemplate a larger cut, although forecasts remain varied. Demand for gold as a hedge has been reinforced by geopolitical uncertainty and concerns around the independence of central banking.

Analysts at ANZ and UBS have revised their forecasts for gold upward. ANZ now expects gold to average about US$3,800 per ounce by year-end, with upside toward US$4,000 by mid-2026. UBS similarly raised its year-end target, citing robust central bank buying, persistent inflation pressures, and the likelihood of further policy easing.

Silver’s rally, driven by industrial demand and tight supply, outpaces gold in percentage gains. ETF inflows have also favoured silver, reflecting investor appetite for high-beta exposure in the precious metals space.

NMDC Group PJSC and ADNOC Logistics and Services Plc forged a three-year agreement today to assess joint delivery of maritime services for offshore projects, reinforcing their partnership in Abu Dhabi’s energy infrastructure.

The agreement, signed by Engineer Yasser Zaghloul, Group Chief Executive of NMDC Group, and Captain Abdulkareem Al Masabi, Chief Executive of ADNOC L&S, at NMDC’s headquarters, lays the groundwork for a stronger framework for offshore EPC collaboration. It covers marine services and integrated logistics, signalling both organisations’ dedication to supporting the emirate’s offshore energy operations. This expanded collaboration reaffirms the offshore maritime services pact strengthening cooperation between the two groups.

Zaghloul highlighted NMDC Group’s five decades of expertise in multi-sector marine engineering, procurement, construction delivery and complex project logistics. He underscored that the launch of NMDC LTS, the group’s latest business unit, allows the market to leverage these capabilities. He praised ADNOC L&S for its leadership in offshore energy support and hydrocarbon logistics, pointing out that both entities operate some of the region’s largest marine fleets. He said the pact would “ensure a robust framework between our two powerhouse organisations” to drive synergies, market differentiation and value growth, ultimately fortifying the industrial marine sector in Abu Dhabi and beyond.

Captain Al Masabi said the collaboration aligns with ADNOC L&S’s long-term ambition to deliver top-tier, integrated logistics that underpin the UAE’s offshore energy expansion. He commented that combining strengths with NMDC would unlock new opportunities, deliver value to ADNOC, its shareholders and clients, and support the UAE’s broader economic development.

Splash247 noted that the pact establishes an “expanded framework for continued collaboration on offshore EPC projects in Abu Dhabi,” emphasising its role in promoting synergies and value growth. It also highlighted ADNOC L&S’s aim to enhance performance through such partnerships.

This development follows earlier significant milestones and investments by NMDC that demonstrate its pivotal role in regional marine and energy infrastructure. In 2024, NMDC secured a contract worth more than US$200 million from ADNOC for marine dredging works in the Ruwais LNG Project, involving removal of approximately 15 million cubic-metres across a five-kilometre channel and installation of navigational aids. NMDC also launched the NMDC LTS unit as part of efforts to diversify into logistics and technical services, reinforcing its leadership in the UAE’s marine EPC, dredging, and logistics sectors.

A high-level delegation from Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, led by MD & CEO HE Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, is in the People’s Republic of China to boost collaboration with leading firms in solar and battery storage technology. The mission aims to support Dubai’s clean energy ambitions under its 2050 strategies by examining advanced practices in renewable energy systems. DEWA Seeks Deeper Energy Ties With Chinese Firms, as the delegation intends, marks a pivotal move in cross-border energy engagement.

Al Tayer and his team engaged with Huawei, BYD, Tesla’s battery energy storage plant, Sungrow, and the CRRC Zhuzhou Institute to survey cutting-edge developments in photovoltaic panels, energy storage solutions, artificial intelligence applications, smart infrastructure, and Fourth Industrial Revolution advancements. These interactions reinforce DEWA’s commitment to integrating global expertise into its operations.

The delegation includes prominent executives such as Waleed bin Salman, Executive Vice President of Business Development and Excellence; Hussain Lootah, Executive Vice President of Transmission Power; Marwan bin Haidar, Executive Vice President of Innovation and the Future; Dr Yousef Al Akraf, Executive Vice President of Business Support and Human Resources; Mohammed Jamea, Vice President of Clean Energy and Diversification; and Ghanim Al Qassim, Senior Manager of Solar Energy. Their breadth of expertise equips DEWA to absorb and apply technological insights strategically.

Central to the discussions is the seventh phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, currently at the tendering stage. This phase will incorporate 2,000 MW of photovoltaic solar capacity alongside 1,400 MW of battery energy storage, delivering six hours of storage—establishing it among the largest solar-plus-storage projects globally under the independent power producer model. The delegation’s visit underscores this project’s importance in shaping Dubai’s sustainable energy future.

China has issued a bold action plan to propel its electronic information manufacturing industry through 2025 and 2026, targeting sustained growth in industrial output, revenue, and technological capability as it seeks to strengthen its position in the global technology arena.

The plan, jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, sets forth a target of roughly 7 per cent average annual growth in industrial output across major segments—including computer, communications, and electronic equipment manufacturing. Revenue growth across related sub-sectors such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics and components is projected to exceed 5 per cent per annum.

Authorities further anticipate that by the close of 2026, the electronic information manufacturing category will retain its status as the largest among China’s 41 key industrial sectors in both revenue and export share. Ambitious local targets aim to elevate five provinces to over 1 trillion yuan in annual manufacturing revenues, with the server industry aiming to surpass 400 billion yuan.

Beyond output and revenue, the plan calls for accelerated equipment modernisation and the development of high-end, intelligent, and eco-friendly production lines. Central to this strategy is the creation of internationally competitive industry bases and specialised clusters serving smaller enterprises.

This industrial blueprint emerges amid broader national efforts to invigorate advanced manufacturing. In August, authorities unveiled new financial guidelines, integrating structural monetary instruments and “green channels” for critical technology firms, aimed at spurring innovation and easing access to capital for integrated circuits, industrial software, medical equipment and advanced materials. Concurrently, China continues to pursue consolidation within its semiconductor sector—though merger negotiations have encountered obstacles, reflecting legal, valuation and fragmentation challenges.

Observers note that China’s renewed emphasis on domestic capability complements longer-standing ambitions under industrial strategies such as “Made in China 2025”, which have driven progress in robotics, solar technology, electric vehicles and rail systems, yet left persistent weaknesses in semiconductors and aerospace.

The current two-year action plan appears to reinforce this trajectory by tying industrial upgrading to environmental standards and smart manufacturing. Provincial authorities are being pressed to deliver on revenue milestones, while the focus on intelligent and eco-friendly production signals an effort to align with global sustainability trends and elevate manufacturing sophistication.

This approach also reflects the government’s response to external pressure, including export controls and trade friction, by targeting resilience and self-sufficiency. By prioritising hubs and clusters, China aims to decentralise innovation and drive inclusive industrial progress across regions, not just within flagship firms or coastal areas.

The twin objectives of maintaining international leadership and building more advanced, cleaner industrial capacity are central to this strategy. As China moves into the mid-2020s, its success will depend on execution—not just on paper targets, but on implementation, regional mobilisation, talent development, and the ability to absorb and apply new technologies at scale.

China’s solar industry, particularly its polysilicon segment, is experiencing a defining shift. Six leading solar makers reported a combined loss of Rmb20.2 billion during the first half of 2025, prompting regulatory intervention to stem overcapacity and destructive price competition.

In early September, GCL Technology Holdings confirmed that investors can anticipate clarity soon on a plan to restructure the polysilicon industry—potentially this year. Chief Financial Officer Yang Wenzhong indicated that GCL may invest its own capital into the effort but is proceeding with caution amid financial uncertainty.

The core of this restructuring lies in a proposed RMB50 billion pooling of funds by top producers like GCL and Tongwei. The aim is to acquire and retire roughly one-third of existing production capacity, targeting approximately one million metric tonnes of lower-quality output. This supply reduction could help raise prices and restore downstream solar panel maker profitability.

Government authorities are reinforcing this market realignment through direct meetings with industry representatives. In August, China’s Industry Ministry held its second session in two months, urging the sector to eliminate outdated manufacturing capacity and curb “low-price disorderly competition” as part of a broader effort to reverse deflationary trends.

The policy response reflects concern over global glut: in 2024, China produced 588 GW of solar capacity while global demand stood at 451 GW, leaving utilisation at just 54%. Analysts estimate that up to 20–30% or more of solar manufacturing capacity must exit the market to reestablish profitability.

This state-guided consolidation faces substantial obstacles. Local governments that have boosted regional development through subsidies, tax breaks and favourable land deals for solar manufacturers may resist decommissioning facilities tied to local GDP and employment. Even if a cartel is formed, analysts warn that members might sneak back into production once prices rebound.

While the outlook remains complex, sentiment among investors appears cautiously optimistic. Markets showed tentative improvement after reports of progress in industry coordination and price gains surfaced. Trina’s commentary on earnings, describing polysilicon as “the first step of anti-involution,” hints at broader hopes for a turnaround.

Global attention is intensifying. Successful restructuring could reinforce China’s dominance—already controlling around 90% of global solar cell capacity—while disrupting cheap exports that have pressured international markets. But a failed effort could compound challenges in other overcapacity-prone sectors such as electric vehicles or shipbuilding.

Longi, another solar powerhouse, is also adapting. Its founder, Li Zhenguo, has relinquished daily management to focus on R&D, including back‑contact cell and green hydrogen technology. The shift comes amid sustained losses and an 80% decline in its share price since 2021, as analysts predict that overcapacity will persist through 2028.

China’s solar supply chain—from polysilicon to panels—is at an industrial crossroads. The restructuring effort is perhaps the boldest policy move yet to recalibrate supply with demand. But its success hinges on overcoming entrenched regional interests, ensuring disciplined industry behaviour, and catalysing sustainable demand growth.