Fuel prices climb as refiners cut losses
Petrol in New Delhi rose by 87 paise to ₹99.51 a litre, while diesel increased by 91 paise to ₹92.49 a litre. The latest increase takes the cumulative rise in both fuels to about ₹5 a litre this month, following the first retail fuel price increase since April 2022.
The pricing move reflects mounting pressure on oil marketing companies as international crude benchmarks remain elevated amid conflict in West Asia and supply concerns around key shipping routes. The controlled increases also point to a calibrated approach by the government, which is seeking to protect refiners’ balance sheets without delivering a sharp one-time shock to household budgets, freight operators and small businesses.
Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation dominate the retail fuel market, operating more than 90 per cent of the country’s roughly 103,000 fuel stations. Their pricing decisions carry wide implications for transport costs, food supply chains, inflation expectations and fiscal calculations.
The latest revision follows a ₹3-a-litre increase on May 15 and another smaller increase during the week, marking a clear shift from the long freeze that had shielded consumers from global volatility while pushing losses onto state-run refiners. That freeze had become harder to sustain as crude prices climbed and the rupee’s movement added to import costs.
The country imports more than four-fifths of its crude oil requirements, leaving domestic retail prices exposed to global oil markets and exchange-rate swings. Refiners have been selling petrol and diesel at discounted rates relative to landed costs, with diesel under-recoveries remaining larger because of its central role in freight, agriculture, public transport and industry.
Losses on diesel sales have been estimated at ₹25-30 a litre even after the first hike, while petrol losses have been placed at about ₹10-14 a litre. The fresh increase narrows that gap only modestly, suggesting further upward revisions could follow if crude prices stay high or the currency weakens.
Diesel is the more sensitive fuel for the broader economy. It powers trucks, buses, farm equipment, construction machinery and a large part of the country’s goods movement. Even modest increases can feed into freight rates, especially for smaller fleet operators with limited capacity to absorb higher running costs.
Petrol demand has also stayed firm, supported by urban commuting, two-wheeler use and private vehicle ownership. April consumption data showed petrol sales at about 3.7 million tonnes, up more than 6 per cent from a year earlier, while gasoil sales stood near 8.3 million tonnes, marginally higher than last year. The numbers indicate that demand has not weakened sharply despite higher living costs.
Bulk fuel demand has added another layer of pressure. Large users such as transport operators, mining companies and industrial consumers often respond quickly to price differences between retail outlets and direct industrial supply. A spike in retail buying can worsen supply imbalances and deepen losses for refiners if pump prices remain below market-linked levels.
The government has so far signalled little appetite for direct subsidies to compensate refiners for continuing under-recoveries. That stance increases the likelihood of gradual price adjustments, particularly if global crude remains above levels assumed in company projections. A sudden subsidy programme would also complicate fiscal planning at a time when public spending priorities remain stretched across infrastructure, welfare and defence.
State-level taxes mean consumers across major cities will see different pump prices even when the base increase is broadly similar. Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad typically record higher retail rates than New Delhi because of local levies, dealer commissions and freight costs. That variation also affects inflation differently across regions.
Compressed natural gas prices have moved higher as well, with Delhi seeing another ₹1-per-kg increase, the third rise in ten days. The parallel increase in CNG adds pressure on taxis, autorickshaws and urban commuters who had shifted to gas-based transport as a cheaper alternative to petrol and diesel.
For oil marketing companies, the price increases may support margins but are unlikely to restore full profitability immediately. Investor attention is now focused on how quickly the companies can recover past losses, whether demand holds up, and whether policymakers allow market-linked pricing to continue if inflationary pressure grows.
