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ARABIAN POST SPECIAL

The Securities and Exchange Commission has placed a hold on Grayscale’s bid to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund into a spot exchange‑traded fund, pending review by the full Commission. The stoppage comes despite staff-level approval and a delegated‑authority green light issued on 1 July for the fund’s listing on NYSE Arca.

With around $755 million in assets, GDLC is heavily weighted towards Bitcoin, with additional holdings in Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, and Cardano. The proposed spot ETF would have been the first U.S. regulated multi‑crypto fund, broadening exposure beyond single‑asset offerings approved earlier.

The SEC’s Acting Division of Trading and Markets approved the listing via delegated authority under Rule 19b‑4. However, under Rule 431, any commissioner can request review—and at least one did on 2 July, triggering an automatic stay of the approval. The Commission has not stated which member requested the review nor provided a timeline for resolving it.

Market analysts suggest the pause may reflect the SEC’s intent to finalise a regulatory framework for spot crypto ETFs—especially products holding assets under unresolved legal status like Solana, XRP, and Cardano—prior to the launch of diversified digital‑asset vehicles. Bloomberg ETF specialist James Seyffart opined that the Commission may be preparing formal listing standards under the 19b‑4 rule before further layered launches.

Grayscale has been converting several trusts into ETFs to close price inefficiencies and align fund prices with net asset value. GDLC tracks CoinDesk’s CoinDesk 5 Index and was trading over-the-counter since 2019. The product had been expected to bring greater liquidity and lower premiums typical of Grayscale trusts.

Financial observers warn that the hold introduces uncertainty for Grayscale, NYSE Arca and other issuers—including Bitwise and Franklin Templeton—who have filed for multi‑asset crypto ETFs and await regulatory clarity. The SEC’s prior approvals for Bitcoin and Ethereum‑only spot ETFs in January and July 2024, respectively, signal cautious acceptance for those assets—but the inclusion of altcoins poses new legal and risk considerations.

Key regulatory questions remain unresolved: the treatment of tokens with ongoing litigation, safeguards against market manipulation, valuation transparency, and asset custody protocols. Rule 431 empowers commissioners to review staff‑level delegations and, once invoked, mandates a suspension of the approval—until the Commission issues a resolution.

Archer Aviation completed a successful test flight of its Midnight electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft at Al Bateen Executive Airport in Abu Dhabi, advancing its push to establish commercial air taxi operations in the UAE. The trial flight marked the first time the company has operated the Midnight aircraft under Middle Eastern environmental conditions, demonstrating its airworthiness and operational viability in one of the world’s most challenging climates.

The test flight was designed to evaluate the aircraft’s vertical lift and descent capabilities while enduring extreme heat, high humidity levels, and airborne dust — factors that are critical to address for obtaining certification in the UAE. The company said these environmental stressors, particularly in the summer season, present unique challenges not faced in temperate regions, and their successful navigation is essential for regional rollout.

With support from the UAE’s Smart and Autonomous Systems Council, Archer Aviation conducted the operation in the presence of officials from the General Civil Aviation Authority, the Abu Dhabi Investment Office, the Integrated Transport Centre, Abu Dhabi Airports, and Abu Dhabi Aviation. Several of Archer’s regional partners also attended, underscoring the strategic significance of the flight for the broader effort to integrate urban air mobility into the UAE’s transportation ecosystem.

This development is part of a broader expansion plan by Archer Aviation, which aims to commence commercial operations in the UAE within the next year. The company confirmed that more flight tests will follow in the coming months as it works toward regulatory approval. These tests will build on data gathered during the Al Bateen flight and are aimed at fine-tuning the aircraft’s performance and ensuring compliance with the UAE’s civil aviation standards.

Archer’s Midnight aircraft is a four-passenger, one-pilot eVTOL designed to reduce urban congestion by providing an environmentally sustainable alternative to short-haul ground transport. It operates entirely on electric power and has a claimed range of around 100 miles, though it is optimised for rapid trips of around 20 miles, enabling multiple short urban hops on a single charge. The company has highlighted its low noise profile and rapid recharge time as key advantages for integration into densely populated cities.

The Abu Dhabi test forms part of a larger strategic partnership between Archer and Abu Dhabi authorities, with the emirate positioning itself as a pioneer in urban air mobility. The Abu Dhabi Investment Office has previously announced financial and regulatory backing for companies involved in the advanced air mobility sector, aiming to transform the capital into a hub for emerging aerospace technologies. Archer’s work is also aligned with the UAE’s long-term vision to build a diversified, innovation-driven economy, especially in sectors like aerospace and smart mobility.

The involvement of multiple UAE transport and aviation stakeholders in the test flight indicates strong institutional interest in accelerating the commercialisation of eVTOL technologies. Abu Dhabi has been actively working to establish the regulatory, financial, and operational groundwork required to deploy air taxis, including digital airspace management systems and vertiport infrastructure. The city’s integrated approach, bringing together regulatory bodies, investors, and transport operators, is viewed by industry experts as a model for emerging air mobility ecosystems globally.

This milestone for Archer also arrives amid growing international competition in the eVTOL space. Companies such as Joby Aviation, Vertical Aerospace, and Lilium are developing similar platforms, with plans to launch air taxi services in urban centres worldwide. However, the harsh environmental conditions in the Gulf region offer a unique proving ground for aircraft performance, and successful operations in Abu Dhabi may serve as a powerful validation for the Midnight platform in other markets with extreme climates.

Archer has previously announced its intention to base a portion of its operations in the UAE, including flight testing, pilot training, and maintenance services. The company is also working on joint ventures and local partnerships to support these initiatives, suggesting a long-term commercial and logistical commitment to the region. Discussions are underway to align with regional airports and private operators to facilitate a network of air taxi routes, which could link major business hubs, residential zones, and tourist attractions across the UAE.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has overtaken its flagship S&P 500 ETF, IVV, in annual fee revenue, marking a significant shift in investor interest. IBIT now generates approximately $187.2 million a year, edging ahead of IVV’s $187.1 million—remarkable given IBIT’s substantially smaller asset base and higher fees.

Since launching in January 2024, IBIT has attracted roughly $52 billion in net inflows—nearly 96% of all capital entering U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—and now accounts for more than 55% of the category’s assets. Its success has propelled assets under management to around $72–75 billion, with the fund achieving the fastest-ever climb to $70 billion in just 341 trading days.

The rapid accumulation reflects shifting institutional sentiment. Analysts note that investors are increasingly willing to pay premium fees—IBIT charges 0.25% versus IVV’s mere 0.03%—for access to Bitcoin exposure within trusted regulated vehicles. Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, said the milestone “reflects both surging investor demand for Bitcoin and significant fee compression in core equity exposure”.

While fee revenue for IBIT now tops IVV, critics caution that underlying volatility in Bitcoin has diminished, bringing it closer to traditional equity benchmarks. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that IBIT’s volatility—once over five times that of equities—has softened significantly, attributing this partly to institutional scale and maturing market dynamics.

IBIT is also directing the vast majority of new capital entering spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past 15 trading days, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have drawn nearly $5 billion in inflows; IBIT alone captured more than 80% of this flow, including $112 million on the final trading day of June. Its individual inflow streak totalled $3.8 billion before plateauing.

Despite its dominance, IBIT has not been immune to market fluctuations. Bitcoin-related ETFs experienced a $342 million outflow in a single day, ending a 15-day positive run. That pause included IBIT seeing no inflows that day, although analysts like Valentin Fournier at BRN Lead Research cautioned it may reflect a temporary cooldown rather than a shift in sentiment.

BlackRock’s success with IBIT is emblematic of broader trends identified by financial research. According to S&P Global, appetite for digitally‑focused funds remains robust, particularly where institutional frameworks offer clarity and accessibility. The Financial Times highlighted that active ETFs—especially crypto and options‑focused products—are capturing disproportionate fee income relative to passive counterparts, driven by higher demand and pricing flexibility.

Regulatory stability since January 2024 has facilitated IBIT’s ascent, making it easier for large-scale investors to allocate to cryptocurrency via mainstream platforms. This institutional flow has, in turn, helped reduce price volatility in Bitcoin itself, narrowing the gap with traditional ETFs.

Yet questions persist about longevity. IBIT’s future depends on sustaining investor interest amid macroeconomic shifts and evolving competition. Emerging Bitcoin ETFs from competitors like Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark Invest’s ARKB are gaining attention, though they trail IBIT significantly. Institutional scrutiny also remains vigilant, focused on fund liquidity, asset custody, and regulatory compliance.

BlackRock is expanding its digital asset strategy beyond the U.S., with plans to introduce a bitcoin ETF in Europe, potentially domiciled in Switzerland, contingent on MiCA framework compliance.

BlackRock’s benchmark S&P 500 ETF, IVV, retains its massive $600+ billion in assets. Though still the industry cornerstone, its fee income has been outstripped for the first time—by a product founded on the dynamic, historically volatile Bitcoin market. The shift underscores a pivotal moment in ETF evolution, as Bitcoin transitions from niche digital asset to mainstream portfolio inclusion.

Net foreign direct investment surged to SAR 22.2 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 44 per cent year‑on‑year rise, the General Authority for Statistics reported on Sunday. Though slightly down from SAR 24 billion in Q4 2024, the inflows underscore robust investor interest. Meanwhile, unemployment eased across the board, with significant gains for women and youth.

Government data show inward FDI at SAR 24 billion in Q1, a 24 per cent increase year‑on‑year but a 6 per cent dip compared to late 2024. Despite this quarterly slowdown, inflows remain well above Q1 2024’s SAR 19.4 billion. The rebound follows strategic efforts under Vision 2030, including high-profile giga‑projects in tourism, sports and entertainment and regulatory reforms aimed at boosting foreign investor confidence.

Analysts caution that current FDI levels are still far short of Saudi Arabia’s $100 billion annual target. Obstacles such as a complex legal environment and perceptions of the Kingdom as a capital exporter persist. The government has responded by conditioning state‑contract awards on regional headquarters being based locally, along with plans to overhaul investment laws to increase transparency.

On the labour front, the overall unemployment rate for people aged 15 and above dropped to 7.8 per cent in Q1, down from 8.5 per cent in Q4 2024. Among Saudi nationals, unemployment eased to 7.6 per cent, compared to 8.4 per cent in the previous quarter; male unemployment declined from 5.1 per cent to 4.7 per cent and female unemployment from 14.3 per cent to 13 per cent.

These figures follow earlier statistics showing an even lower unemployment rate among Saudi nationals: 6.3 per cent, the lowest on record, driven in part by historic falls in female joblessness, which reached 10.5 per cent. GASTAT’s labour bulletin also highlighted a rise in overall participation to 68.2 per cent, up 1.8 points from Q4 2024. Within that, Saudi male participation climbed to 66.4 per cent, while female participation rose to 36.3 per cent.

The youth labour market showed varied outcomes: unemployment among young Saudi women fell to 11.6 per cent, while male youth unemployment dropped to 11.6 per cent as well, even as their participation rate declined. Experts link these shifts to targeted labour reforms, including expanded digital employment platforms such as Jadarat, and programmes that encourage female workforce inclusion under Vision 2030.

Economic diversification is evident in the deeper GDP breakdown. Non‑oil sectors grew by 4.2 per cent in Q1, significantly outpacing oil activity, which fell by 1.4 per cent, according to GASTAT. Government services also rose by 3.2 per cent, driving overall GDP growth of 2.7 per cent year‑on‑year. These shifts highlight the evolving composition of the economy away from hydrocarbons.

The resilience in FDI and labour metrics comes amid projected fiscal pressures. Saudi Arabia is expected to run a SAR 101 billion deficit in 2025, to be funded largely through debt. Even so, credit agencies note that net public debt remains low at approximately 17 per cent of GDP, leaving room for continued borrowing.

Policy-makers point to dynamic growth in private‑sector activity and infrastructure investment as evidence of broader momentum. Nonetheless, flows remain below long‑term targets, and uncertainties linger over the pace of regulatory liberalisation and investor protections.

Combined, these indicators illustrate an economy in transition. FDI strength and labour market improvement reflect clear progress, especially on domestic policy fronts aligned with Vision 2030 goals. Yet government targets for transformative investment and full private‑sector integration remain distant, and persistent structural rigidities could slow advancement.

Moving forward, success will hinge on deepening institutional reforms—such as streamlined licensing, improved legal frameworks, and enhanced foreign equity rights—and sustaining social policies that widen labour force inclusivity, notably among women and youth. Economic forecasts anticipate moderating oil prices and slower government expenditure later in 2025, placing even greater emphasis on private capital inflows and sustainable domestic job creation.

These emerging trends offer insight into Saudi Arabia’s efforts to recalibrate its economic model—balancing fiscal constraints with bold ambitions. While the pace of change remains uneven, the current data points to structural momentum that, if sustained, could reshape the Kingdom’s economy over the remainder of the decade.

A new Qingdao Overseas Integrated Service Centre launched at the China‑Arab Business Forum in Qingdao is set to deepen commercial ties between China and the Gulf region by enhancing the current $400 billion trade corridor.

Abdulla Albasha Alnoaimi, UAE commercial attaché to China, and Zeng Zanrong, Qingdao’s municipal party secretary, formally unveiled the centre, established by SepcoIII Electric Power Construction Co and Hisense Group. Drawing on their extensive foothold in the UAE and the broader Middle East, the centre is intended to act as a bridge to support Chinese firms entering Arab markets.

At the forum, 40 projects worth $5.93 billion were signed, spanning high‑end equipment, new energy, advanced materials and next‑generation information technology. These agreements signal a deliberate shift towards elevating the technological content and sophistication of trade between the regions.

Bilateral trade between China and Arab countries reached more than $400 billion in 2024, compared to just $36.7 billion in 2004, marking a ten‑fold rise over two decades. Saudi Arabia and the UAE led these exchanges, recording $107.53 billion and $101.838 billion respectively in 2024, with the latter growing by 7.2 per cent year‑on‑year.

Mohammed Saqib, secretary‑general of the CHIMENA Business Council, emphasised the centre’s role in aligning public and private sectors to drive economic cooperation, cultural exchange and joint investment initiatives. He noted it will act through mechanisms such as overseas industrial parks, procurement matching and international exhibitions.

China’s expansion into the Gulf forms part of its broader geopolitical strategy to diversify trade alliances and reduce dependency on Western markets, especially the US. Chinese firms are now deeply involved in infrastructure development across the MENA region, including ports, industrial zones, and renewable energy projects.

The forum drew 465 multinational firms, including 135 from the Fortune Global 500 and 330 leading industry enterprises across 43 countries. Three focused matchmaking sessions brought together over 300 Chinese companies with counterparts in Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Co‑hosts of the event included the Qingdao municipal government, China’s Ministry of Commerce and the Shandong provincial department of commerce, signalling full institutional support and coordination.

With its strategic location in the UAE, the centre is expected to catalyse an export‑oriented alliance, supporting Chinese firms in sectors such as energy, manufacturing and new materials, as well as bolstering the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative across Gulf markets.

This initiative aligns with a historical trajectory of Sino‑Arab exchange, tracing back over two millennia via the Silk Route. Contemporary developments reflect a sharpened focus on innovation‑driven partnerships.

The unfolding dynamics underscore a growing economic interdependence between China and Gulf states. The QOISC adds an institutional anchor to sustain momentum, foster deeper investment flows, and integrate advanced technology and green energy into bilateral commerce.

However, observers caution China must continue to navigate geopolitical sensitivities, particularly in managing strategic competition with the US and ensuring sustainable and balanced partnerships that benefit local economies.

Dubai residents can now view their personal credit report and credit score directly within the DubaiNow app following a newly launched integration with Etihad Credit Bureau. The partnership enables users to access crucial credit information with a single tap—bringing financial insights closer to everyday urban life.

Officials emphasise that this move reflects a strategic direction toward seamless digital service delivery. Marwan Ahmad Lutfi, Director General of Etihad Credit Bureau, underscored the bureau’s commitment to national digital transformation, noting the use of advanced APIs to simplify user access to credit data. Matar Al Hemeiri, CEO of Digital Dubai Government Establishment, added that the integration reinforces Dubai’s position as a hub for digital innovation and aligns with the “We the UAE 2031” vision for a connected, smart society.

DubaiNow, developed by Digital Dubai, offers over 300 services — ranging from bill payments and health records to official documentation. The inclusion of credit reports and scores builds on its role as a one-stop platform for private and government services. This feature eliminates the need for separate logins or visits to multiple platforms—credit information is now readily accessible to users seeking clarity on their financial standing.

Earlier, Etihad Credit Bureau successfully integrated with Abu Dhabi’s TAMM platform, and this step represents a widening push across emirates to bridge credit services with digital portals. Sources highlight that such integrations are part of a broader effort to promote financial literacy, transparency, and empowered decision‑making among residents. Access to credit scores supports informed borrowing and better personal finance management.

Although specific usage metrics have not been disclosed, industry analysts see significant potential. By delivering real-time credit insights directly inside an app used daily by millions, the integration might reduce friction in credit awareness, which could lead to more responsible lending and borrowing—even small improvements in payment discipline or credit visibility can have outsized impact on personal financial health.

Affordability remains a factor: Etihad Credit Bureau’s website lists the cost of a personal credit report at AED 84, with a standalone credit score costing AED 10.50. However, it is not yet clear whether these fees apply within DubaiNow or if special rates have been arranged for app users. Users should check within the app for pricing details.

Security is paramount. Etihad Credit Bureau employs stringent data encryption and authentication measures to protect sensitive credit information. DubaiNow leverages UAE Pass for identity verification, ensuring that only authorised individuals access their own financial data.

The integration occurs amid rapid digital government expansion across the Gulf, where unified platforms are central to delivering frictionless user experience. By adding credit insights to DubaiNow, authorities anticipate a future where financial and administrative services converge—expected to boost efficiency for users and public institutions alike.

Going forward, observers expect Etihad Credit Bureau to extend integration to further emirate-level services and fintech platforms, creating a comprehensive, country-wide credit information network. Proponents argue such a system would enhance economic resilience by embedding credit awareness into everyday digital interactions.

Hong Kong’s government on 26 June issued its Policy Statement 2.0 on the development of digital assets, signalling a decisive push to position the city at the forefront of the global crypto landscape. The statement introduces the comprehensive “LEAP” framework—Legal, Expand, Advance, People—underlining a mission to develop a trusted, innovative, and deeply integrated ecosystem for digital assets.

The regulatory reforms assign explicit oversight roles: the Securities and Futures Commission will licence digital asset exchanges, custodial and dealing services, while the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will govern bank-related activities in the sector. In addition, licensing regimes for stablecoin issuers and custodians are scheduled to commence on 1 August 2025, designed to strengthen anti‑money‑laundering safeguards, investor protection, and transparency in stablecoin issuance.

Central to Policy 2.0 is a commitment to tokenisation of traditional financial instruments and real‑world assets. The government will regularise issuance of tokenised government bonds, streamline stamp‑duty treatment for tokenised ETFs, and legislate to support tokenisation of assets such as precious and non‑ferrous metals, and renewable energy products. These bids aim to boost liquidity and broaden market access, aligning with existing initiatives such as the HK$6.8 billion in green bond token issuances since 2022.

Stablecoins also feature prominently, with proposals to pilot licensed stablecoins in public sector uses. Market consultation is seeking input on integrating these instruments into government operations and cross‑border payments, underpinned by stricter regulatory clarity. Tax incentives for private investment vehicles and family offices trading digital asset securities are expected in the 2025–26 fiscal year, aligning digital and traditional financial regimes.

International alignment is embedded in the blueprint. Hong Kong’s framework adheres to global standards—covering anti‑money‑laundering as per FATF, Basel Committee prudential supervision, IOSCO’s policy recommendations, and OECD crypto‑asset tax transparency measures. Complementary pilot schemes include HKMA’s “Project Ensemble” wholesale central bank digital currency trials, LME‑backed tokenisation of metal assets in Hong Kong warehouses, and a Cyberport‑sponsored incubator scheme to finance blockchain startups.

Since unveiling its original 2022 policy, the government has approved licences for over a dozen digital asset platforms, including nine trading licences and OTC frameworks, and supported tokenised bond issues by both government and corporate entities. Financial Secretary Paul Chan and SFC chief Julia Leung emphasise that this next phase marks a departure from pilot testing, transitioning toward institutionalisation and global competitiveness.

Industry leaders responded positively. Legal and compliance expert Cora Ang described the framework as “a strategic win” that aligns regulatory clarity with stablecoin and tokenisation growth. HashKey CEO Xiao Feng noted the city is entering a “new stage of maturity”, transitioning from sandbox environments to a substantive digital assets regime. Historical drivers such as the JPEX OTC fraud prompted regulators to enforce tighter custody and trading separation to protect investors.

Notably, fintech legal advisers in Hong Kong report surging demand. Firms are actively supporting issuance of tokenised gold and digital bonds, as banks like Bank of Communications and Zhuhai Huafa Group deploy digital debt instruments via licensed platforms. Meanwhile, legal specialists continue to advocate for derivatives, margin‑lending, and institutional frameworks targeted at professional investors.

Hong Kong’s strategic deployment of Policy 2.0 underlines a competitive counterbalance to rival jurisdictions such as Singapore, Dubai, and the US, each advancing their own crypto regulatory frameworks. The city’s alignment with global financial standards—alongside tailored incentives and public‑sector engagement—signals a comprehensive, forward‑leaning posture in digital asset finance.

Alain Robert, the daredevil climber known as the French Spiderman, has ascended the 116‑metre Meliá Barcelona Sky Hotel without any ropes or harnesses to launch TIGERSHARK—claimed as the world’s first cryptocurrency backed by real‑world extreme sports feats. Clad in Tigershark-branded gear and accompanied by his son, former French Navy marine Julien Robert, he live-streamed the stunt via X to mark what organisers call a “Mission 1: Spiderman & Son” initiative.

Organisers describe TIGERSHARK as part of an emerging “Action Economy” in which each token is tied to real adrenaline-fuelled missions spanning big‑wave surfing, wingsuit flying, motocross and parkour. Holding the token grants access to private events, exclusive behind‑the‑scenes content and athlete “drops” – an attempt to fuse thrill‑seeking with blockchain community building.

Lilly Douse, spokesperson for Tigershark, emphasised the departure from traditional token launches: “not airdrops, not smoke and mirrors, but actual real‑world extreme feats, true adrenaline”. She added that the venture is betting on “guts and grits” as the currency’s value proposition.

Robert’s legacy as an urban climber spans more than 150 structures, including the Burj Khalifa, Eiffel Tower and Petronas Towers, all scaled without safety gear. At his current age in the early 60s, he remains committed to pushing boundaries—and this stunt launches a broader strategy merging sport, entertainment and crypto technology.

Discussions are already underway with elite athletes in other high‑risk disciplines—such as base jumping, parkour, wingsuiting and motocross—to participate in future missions. Tigershark’s roadmap includes sponsorships, branded merchandise, global events and athlete plugins, positioning itself as more than a token, but a fully-fledged action-sports brand powered by cryptocurrency.

The circus‑style unveiling has caught the attention of both crypto enthusiasts and adventure-sport communities. While token offerings tied to lifestyle and entertainment have a precedent, Tigershark’s novel angle lies in monetising raw human risk and authenticity. Crypto commentators on social media have amplified the narrative, describing the stunt as “the realest launch Web3 has seen” and “the wildest crypto launch ever”.

However, critics have raised concerns. The stunt’s stunt‑token concept may attract speculative interest, but some analysts warn linking token value to unpredictable physical events could introduce heightened volatility. Moreover, regulatory scrutiny looms over crypto ventures that employ unconventional marketing tactics, especially those involving public stunts with safety or legality risks.

Tigershark’s strategic focus on live‑streamed extreme feats and token‑holder exclusives mirrors broader trends in Web3: blending content, experience and community. Yet the project must deliver consistency and transparency. Observers will scrutinise whether future missions occur as scheduled, whether token economics remain sound, and whether token-holders genuinely receive promised perks.

By embedding risk and spectacle into its founding act, TIGERSHARK sets itself apart from conventional token launches. Early investor sentiment appears buoyed by novelty and potential for real‑world engagement. But delivering a sustainable “Action Economy” will require navigating regulatory complexities and proving that this fusion of blockchain and extreme sport can transform fleeting adrenaline into long‑term value.

The U.S. dollar has slumped by more than 10 per cent year‑to‑date, marking its most severe first‑half decline since the mid‑1980s, as global investors pull back from dollar‑denominated assets amid doubts over U.S. economic policy and rising interest in alternatives such as cryptocurrencies.

Institutional investors across Europe and Asia are leading a broad sell‑off. European pension funds and insurers have slashed dollar‑asset exposure to levels unseen since 2022, primarily through equity divestment, while Asian bondholders have been unwinding fixed‑income positions.

Market watchers identify multiple bearish drivers: weakening Federal Reserve credibility under the spectre of political interference, dovish statements signalling potential rate cuts, and concerns over President Trump’s tariff posture and mounting debt. These factors have undercut confidence in the dollar’s role as the premier global reserve asset.

Declining yields on U.S. Treasuries have narrowed their appeal, prompting asset shifts toward Europe and emerging markets and feeding a broader investor rotation away from dollar‑centric investments. Cash strategists at Bank of America report that the net underweight position on the dollar is the most significant in two decades, signalling widespread repositioning.

Despite periodic reprieves, market technicals remain weak. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, trading around the high‑90s, broke key support levels, triggering technical patterns that suggest further downside unless a strong reversal emerges.

The dollar’s weakness is also fueling a surge in alternative assets. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have rallied, with analysts highlighting an inverse correlation to the dollar’s performance. Gold and select equities in Europe and Asia have benefited from the reallocation of capital.

Echoes of the mid‑1980s Plaza Accord era are notable, when coordinated efforts led to a sharp devaluation of the dollar. However, experts caution that the current environment reflects deeper structural trends: geopolitical uncertainties, shifting reserve currency strategies, and Asia’s growing role in capital flows.

Some analysts argue that short‑term technical bounce possibilities exist, especially if U.S. economic indicators outperform or geopolitical tensions rekindle risk‑off flows. Yet, the prevailing consensus points to a prolonged adjustment period, as “short dollar” bets remain deeply entrenched among fund managers.

The dollar’s slide has implications beyond currency markets. Weaker dollar conditions typically ease financial constraints for emerging economies with dollar-denominated debt, support commodity prices, and influence global trade balances. Conversely, U.S. consumers may experience elevated import costs.

Attention now shifts to key catalysts: upcoming Fed commentary, U.S. inflation and employment data, and whether the administration proceeds with proposed tariffs or investment taxes that could further unsettle international investor sentiment.

U.S. lawmakers have advanced the GENIUS Act, a federal bill setting strict requirements for stablecoin issuers that could significantly challenge Tether’s dominance. The legislation mandates full backing with cash or U.S. Treasuries, monthly audits by registered firms, transparency of reserves, anti-money laundering safeguards and U.S. registration for issuers with over $10 billion in circulation. Circle’s USDC stands to gain, while Tether’s model faces serious scrutiny if it intends to access U.S. markets.

Tether currently holds approximately $155 billion in USDT tokens, backed in part by volatile assets such as Bitcoin and gold—as well as commercial paper and loans. It discloses reserves via quarterly attestations, though it has never undergone a full independent audit, despite promises since 2017. In contrast, the GENIUS Act requires liquidity in U.S.-based financial institutions and audited transparency certified by company executives, holding them personally liable.

Experts warn that Tether now faces a strategic choice: overhaul its reserve holdings, comply with audits and potentially register under U.S. regulations—or abandon ambitions in the U.S. and pivot towards offshore markets. After relocating its corporate headquarters to El Salvador, Tether appears poised to leverage regulatory gaps via reciprocal agreements—though critics argue this is unlikely to satisfy U.S. authorities.

Steve Gannon, a lawyer specialising in digital assets, suggested that Tether is unlikely to enter U.S. markets until regulations are finalised, as adaptation would require extensive investment in compliance infrastructure. CoinDesk analysis emphasises that foreign issuers could qualify only if regulated by approved jurisdictions and maintain U.S.-based reserves, with oversight from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

By contrast, Circle is well-positioned. USDC is fully backed by cash and Treasury bills, audited monthly and issued by a U.S.-based firm. Following the Senate’s approval of the GENIUS Act, Circle’s share price surged, reflecting investor confidence in its compliance-readiness.

The GENIUS Act also seeks to tighten anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing protocols by integrating stablecoins under the Bank Secrecy Act, with monthly certifications and criminal penalties for lapses. It includes explicit restrictions on stablecoin issuance by lawmakers and their families.

Critics have flagged potential loopholes, warning that offshore entities like Tether could continue servicing U.S. customers through decentralised exchanges—sidestepping rigorous Elm Salvador or other offshore jurisdictions. The Senate bill also bans stablecoins from offering interest, limiting yield-bearing models favoured by some existing issuers.

On financial markets, increased demand from compliant issuers is expected to boost U.S. Treasury purchases. Currently, around $200 billion of assets backing stablecoins are held in Treasuries and repos. Even a modest uptick in USDC issuance could drive multibillion-dollar incremental purchases. A recent study found Tether holds nearly 1.6% of all U.S. Treasury bills, contributing to yield compression equivalent to tens of billions in annual government savings.

Yet uncertainty remains. The GENIUS Act must clear the House and be signed into law, with possible amendments—especially regarding foreign issuance pressures and scope of AML provisions. Senate Banking Committee Democrats have warned of national security risks if the bill doesn’t close offshore loopholes, fearing illicit finance actors could exploit weakly regulated channels.

Tether’s CEO Paolo Ardoino has signalled exploration of a U.S.-compliant stablecoin variant, which would align reserves and governance with federal standards. However, no official timeline has been provided.

Stablecoin proponents say the GENIUS Act brings much‑needed clarity, potentially paving the way for mainstream adoption and institutional participation. Yet critics fear regulatory shortcuts may invite private stablecoins into a system without equal access for central bank digital currencies.

The stakes are high. Tether’s strategic response will shape the competitive landscape. Will it meet U.S. standards or cede space to compliant rivals like Circle? The passage of the GENIUS Act may mark a turning point in crypto policy and redefine stablecoin leadership.

Beirut’s landscape, battered by the 14‑month Hezbollah–Israel war, is set for a critical transformation as the World Bank green‑lights a US$250 million financing package to support urgent restoration and rubble management. Dubbed the Lebanon Emergency Assistance Project, this initiative marks the initial phase of a US$1 billion, government‑led framework aimed at breathing life back into vital public infrastructure and essential services.

Damage and needs assessments conducted between 8 October 2023 and 20 December 2024 estimate total conflict losses at US$7.2 billion, with an overarching reconstruction requirement of US$11 billion. Of this, approximately US$1.1 billion pertains to infrastructure across transport, water, energy, municipal services, education and healthcare – the precise sectors that LEAP will target for immediate interventions.

Jean‑Christophe Carret, the World Bank’s Middle East director, described LEAP’s design as “a credible vehicle for development partners to align their support, alongside continued progress on the Government’s reform agenda, and maximise collective impact in support of Lebanon’s recovery and long‑term reconstruction”. The financing will fund rapid repairs to lifeline services, sustainable clearance of rubble prioritising recycling, and initial design and environmental studies for longer‑term rebuilding.

By adopting a data‑driven, area‑based prioritisation endorsed by the Council of Ministers, LEAP aims to balance speed with social and economic impact in the worst‑affected regions. To ensure accountability and effective delivery, Lebanon has initiated reforms within the Council for Development and Reconstruction, including the appointment of a fully functional board and streamlined processes consistent with international emergency‑response standards.

Operational oversight will be bolstered by an international private‑sector engineering firm, responsible for compliance monitoring across technical, environmental, fiduciary and AML/CFT requirements. Implementation rests under the strategic guidance of the Prime Minister’s Office, with the Ministry of Public Works and Transport leading execution and the Ministry of Environment overseeing social and environmental safeguards, especially debris handling.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam welcomed the funding as “a key step in reconstruction… reinforcing recovery efforts within a state‑led framework and paving the way for much‑needed additional financing”.

The World Bank has previously confirmed that this initial contribution is part of a US$1 billion scalable fund, with $250 million already committed and plans for donor contributions to fill the remaining $750 million. Lebanon has already secured preliminary approval to raise the World Bank loan to $400 million, signalling growing momentum for the broader rehabilitation agenda.

LEAP emerges at a juncture when Lebanon, in the grip of one of its most severe financial crises in modern history, is balancing a recovery from war with deep‑rooted economic collapse. Nearly three‑quarters of its population live in poverty, the currency has collapsed by over 90 % since 2019, and public services have all but collapsed. The project’s prioritisation of transparency, environmental best practice, and governance reform offers a fresh test of Lebanon’s capacity to channel international finance into tangible, equitable recovery.

Meanwhile, the World Bank is coordinating with multilateral and bilateral donors, aligning its initial funding with evolving Lebanese reforms. The ultimate success of LEAP depends not only on reconstruction dollars, but on effective institutional stewardship—a challenge Lebanon’s government has pledged to embrace.

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that American and Iranian officials will meet next week to discuss Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, following a concerted military campaign that he claims has effectively neutralised key Iranian enrichment facilities. The announcement came at the NATO summit in The Hague.

Trump defended the use of bunker-busting bombs against the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan sites, asserting they had been “obliterated” and describing the bombing campaign as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear programme. He struck a triumphant tone, crediting the strikes with hastening the end of the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, though he expressed reservations about formalising a diplomatic agreement: “We may sign an agreement. I don’t know, to me, I don’t think it’s that necessary,” he told reporters.

U.S. intelligence assessments, however, diverge on the scale of success. A preliminary report from the Defence Intelligence Agency concluded the setbacks to Iran’s nuclear efforts might be limited to a matter of months, not years. CIA Director John Ratcliffe affirmed that the programme had been “severely damaged” but stopped short of declaring it destroyed. Israeli officials estimated the setbacks to be multi‑year, while the International Atomic Energy Agency emphasised uncertainties over Iran’s stockpile and called for robust inspections.

Diplomatic activity has meanwhile resumed. This U.S.–Iran meeting will follow six rounds of indirect talks mediated by Oman and Italy, which collapsed in mid‑June as the military confrontation intensified. Earlier this week, European envoys from the E‑3—France, Germany and the UK—engaged in direct negotiations in Geneva with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Those discussions aimed to bridge differences after stalled U.S. efforts.

White House special envoy Steve Witkoff reiterated red‑line U.S. stipulations ahead of next week’s meeting: Tehran must renounce nuclear weaponisation and accept restrictions on uranium enrichment. He noted the U.S. is open to crafting a comprehensive peace framework, building on what Trump described as a de‑escalation following “a victory for everybody”.

From Tehran, Iranian officials have not confirmed next week’s meeting but emphasised national security. The Iranian parliament accelerated a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA, pending guarantees for the safety of nuclear infrastructure targeted in the strikes. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf accused the IAEA of failing to condemn the U.S. attack. Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi urged renewed inspections to clarify the status of enriched uranium moved before the bombings.

Regional and global actors are also weighing in. France has called for robust diplomacy to carve a sustained peace path. China has echoed the call for diplomatic restraint. Israel hailed the strikes as a critical setback to Iran’s programme; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu endorsed Trump’s strong posture and emphasised the need to keep pressure on Tehran.

Analysts note the gravity of waging diplomacy in the shadow of military action. One specialist observed that while bombings may degrade enrichment infrastructure, they can complicate trust and cooperation needed for inspections and verification. Moreover, uncertainty lingers over the status of highly enriched uranium caches. Rebuilding diplomatic channels will require assurances, reciprocal transparency, and a mutual understanding of consequences.

Trump has warned that if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear programme, the U.S. is prepared to act again: “Sure,” he said when asked about further strikes. Yet the pendulum has swung toward a blend of military deterrence and diplomatic engagement.

As next week’s talks approach, key questions remain: who will represent each side, where the dialogue will occur, and whether the focus will be solely nuclear constraints or broader regional stability. White House administration officials have yet to disclose details, but the U.S. envoy confirmed Washington’s intent is to establish a framework that could replace the 2015 agreement.

Trump also signalled openness to exploring a bilateral relationship beyond nuclear confines: “We’ll end up having something of a relationship with Iran,” he said, as long as Tehran adheres to non‑weaponisation terms.

As the diplomatic window opens under the spectre of military force, the world watches to see whether this fragile blend of coercion and conciliation can unfold into a sustainable agreement—one that might ensure Iran never pursues nuclear weapons and stabilises a volatile region.

Poland has become the first European country to pilot palm vein–based biometric payments, while Tencent is advancing similar technology in Thailand, setting the stage for a wider rollout across Southeast Asia. Autopay’s HandGo system and Tencent’s palm biometrics reflect a growing global interest in contactless and secure transaction methods.

Autopay has initiated a pilot of HandGo by allowing customers at select venues—such as the Limitless sauna complex in Sopot—to make purchases by placing their palm on a scanner. Once a user links a payment card in the Autopay app, they register their palm vein pattern via QR-triggered enrolment. A digital hand token is then stored securely, enabling future transactions without a card, smartphone, or smartwatch. Autopay emphasises that no actual image of the hand is stored—only encrypted vein pattern data and a payment token meeting PCI‑DSS standards. Company executives describe the offering as a potential game‑changer for wellness and sports facilities, emphasising convenience and hygiene.

Globally, competitors already include Amazon’s Amazon One and Alipay’s PL1 device. Autopay distinguishes itself in Poland by being the nation’s first palm-auth payment provider, placing it alongside early vein‑scanning efforts by BPH bank and fintech Payvein. Another biometric contender, PayEye, combines iris and facial recognition for payment authorisation. Despite its versatility, PayEye requires merchants to deploy specialised terminals that support both biometric and traditional card payments, boosting acceptance rates.

Meanwhile, Tencent Cloud is intensifying its push into palm biometrics in Thailand. Vice‑president Jimmy Chen told the Bangkok Post that the country, backed by its “Cloud First” policy and digital transformation initiatives, makes an ideal launchpad. Tencent is collaborating with local technology firms such as MFEC and True IDC to test the system across multiple sectors, including convenience stores, retail, entertainment, education and finance. Early trials in venues like 7‑Eleven, Siam Commercial Bank, and The Mall Group underscore a focus on Thailand’s tourism-driven retail sector, where international visitors may welcome a card- or cash-free experience.

Tencent Cloud’s palm recognition has already been implemented in China at Beijing Airport Express, Shenzhen University, and numerous 7‑Eleven outlets. The system uses infrared imaging to analyse both surface palm lines and the vein network beneath the skin. Data is encrypted and stored with irreversible transformation to safeguard privacy. The architecture integrates local data centres—in Thailand’s case—with no cross-border transfers, aligning with regulatory frameworks. Analysts from GlobalData suggest that if the trials succeed, Thailand could become the gateway for adoption across Indonesia and Malaysia, offering scalability and enhanced security compared with fingerprint or facial recognition.

The initiative follows earlier pilot projects: Tencent partnered with Visa in Singapore in November 2024 during the Fintech Festival, allowing DBS, OCBC and UOB cardholders to enrol palm biometrics at café POS terminals and make payments thereafter through voice‑free palm scans. Tencent’s palm system, recognised with a Fintech Excellence Award in Singapore, reportedly supports transaction speeds within a second, even under poor lighting or wet conditions.

In Southeast Asia, Alipay’s PL1 palm scanner is already deployed across several markets. PL1 requires users to enrol their palm lines and vein data, then allows tap‑free transactions at metro gates, buses and retail outlets. The competitive landscape also includes Amazon’s Whole Foods adoption of palm scan technology in the US and pilot programmes by J.P. Morgan and Mastercard for palm‑based checkout systems.

Barclays will prohibit customers from using personal credit and debit cards for any cryptocurrency transactions from 27 June 2025. The decision, targeting consumer protection, stems from mounting regulatory pressure and rising concerns over debt and fraud linked to crypto purchases.

The bank’s initiative aligns with guidance from the UK Financial Conduct Authority, which has flagged credit-fuelled crypto investments as high‑risk. Starting late June, any attempt to buy cryptocurrencies—such as Bitcoin or Ethereum—via personal Barclays cards will be automatically declined.

Barclays emphasises that this move is about protecting customers from potentially volatile assets acquired under credit. A spokesperson noted that while personal cards are blocked, other payment methods remain available. The bank asserts that safeguarding consumer finances remains its priority.

The FCA has long warned about the dangers of unregulated crypto assets, especially when purchased on credit. Consumers may accumulate unmanageable debt rapidly if asset prices tumble. Barclays’ policy mirrors earlier actions by Nationwide, Lloyds, and HSBC, which have instituted similar restrictions in recent years.

Industry observers suggest the move reflects wider regulatory caution. “We challenge the proposed ban…as it unfairly equates legitimate investment activity with gambling,” representatives from the UK Payments Association said. They argue customers deserve autonomy but acknowledge the bank’s concern over addiction-like behaviours and debt accumulation.

Financial behaviour analysts note that this policy is likely to reduce impulsive crypto spending, especially among less experienced investors. One market strategist commented, “The withdrawal of credit-based routes to crypto is a logical policy to limit rapid losses when prices plunge.” It may also influence broader market dynamics if other major banks adopt similar stances.

Retail crypto platforms responded with caution. Some are exploring partnerships with open finance firms, enabling bank transfers or peer-to-peer methods that evade card-related restrictions. However, these solutions still face regulatory scrutiny.

The FCA anticipates that removing credit channels will also decrease susceptibility to scams. Fraudulent schemes often exploit lending mechanisms to siphon user funds—something Barclays hopes to curtail under its new rule.

Barclays’ action adds to a string of regulatory-led shifts. After blocking card payments to Binance in July 2021, in line with an FCA notice, the bank has maintained a cautious approach. Now, the new policy encompasses all crypto transactions, regardless of the provider. While withdrawals and direct payments from existing accounts remain permitted, no credit is extended to purchase digital assets.

Crypto firms warn that this may inadvertently push users towards unregulated or foreign exchanges, increasing systemic exposure risks. They advocate for balanced regulation that allows innovation while shielding vulnerable consumers.

Despite industry pushback, Barclays notes that the measure only affects purchases with credit cards and does not restrict broader digital finance use. It emphasises support for regular account holders, offering alternative payment methods such as debit card direct transfers and open banking options.