News related to
China

Swatch Group’s first‑half figures underscore a deepening crisis in its key Asian markets after the Swiss watch‑maker disclosed a 7.1 per cent drop in sales, generating CHF 3.059 billion, falling short of market forecasts of CHF 3.2 billion. Operating profit plunged 67 per cent year‑on‑year to CHF 68 million, signalling an urgent warning to investors and management alike.

China, alongside Hong Kong and Macau, remains the primary weak spot, contributing 27 per cent of total revenues. Falling demand across these regions continues to undermine core sales and profit performance. Despite encouraging double‑digit growth in North America and market share gains in countries such as Japan, India and the Middle East, these gains have yet to compensate for the shortfall from Greater China.

Net profit attributable to owners collapsed to CHF 3 million, compared with CHF 136 million during the same six‑month period last year. This dramatic decline illustrates the scale of the downturn, making it Swatch’s worst half‑year performance in recent memory.

Analyst commentary has been scathing: Vontobel described this period as “an ugly half year for Swatch Group in all respects”. The fallout from slowed Chinese consumer activity has been compounded by negative currency effects—Swiss franc appreciation cut CHF 113 million from turnover relative to constant‑currency comparisons.

Adding fresh complexity, new U. S. tariffs threaten to raise costs on Swiss watch imports by up to 31 per cent. Industry stakeholders now warn that these levies could further weigh on margins, with retailers like Watches of Switzerland projecting a margin squeeze in the year ahead.

Beyond external pressures, a growing number of investors are scrutinising Swatch’s internal governance. Shareholder activism has surfaced, with calls for more oversight of the centrally controlled Hayek family, whose dual‑class voting structure remains a source of contention. Net profits collapsed by 75 per cent to CHF 219 million in 2024, but critics assert that this malaise runs deeper. GreenWood Investors, led by Steven Wood, has launched a push to join the board, advocating for brand revitalisation, governance reforms and a strategy pivot toward luxury exclusivity akin to Hermès and Ferrari.

Management, though addressing short‑term volatility, emphasises Swatch’s entrenched strengths. Its vertically integrated manufacturing, with over 150 production sites, and the success of the affordable MoonSwatch line demonstrate resilience. The company has pledged that cost‑cutting measures and a pipeline of new product launches—particularly in the U. S. and Japan—should drive a rebound in the second half of the year.

The first‑half slump follows broader downturns last year, when revenue declined 12.2 per cent to CHF 6.74 billion in 2024, and operating profit fell 75 per cent to CHF 304 million. That drop reinforced trading floor rumours of governance fatigue and brand dilution at high‑end labels like Omega and Breguet.

Economically, China’s consumer landscape remains unsettled. A combination of property market stress, slower GDP growth and official campaigns discouraging conspicuous consumption have dampened luxury spending. Swiss watch exports to China and Hong Kong plunged by double digits in early 2024, while only the lower‑priced Swatch line bucked the trend in the region, gaining 10 per cent in sales volume.

Swatch Group’s corporate ambition to maintain full production capacity and avoid layoffs during weak demand, while strategically commendable, has weighed on margins—especially in the production segment. Management asserts this decision safeguards long‑term capabilities and is now beginning to bear fruit, with production margins improving since June.

Mixed signs beyond China offer guarded optimism. North America posted record sales, Japan recorded robust growth, and emerging markets like India and the Middle East offered upside. These regions now form the central axis of Swatch’s recovery strategy.

Uber Technologies and Baidu Inc. have confirmed a multi‑year strategic alliance to bring Baidu’s Apollo Go autonomous robotaxis to markets beyond the U. S. and mainland China, initiating the programme later this year in select cities across Asia and the Middle East. The new service, integrated into the Uber app, will offer riders the option to choose fully driver‑free vehicles powered by Apollo Go’s advanced AI systems.

Apollo Go currently operates the world’s largest driverless ride‑hailing network, with more than 1,000 fully autonomous vehicles deployed across 15 cities—including Dubai and Abu Dhabi—and over 11 million rides completed as of May 2025. The expansion, announced on 15 July 2025, marks a significant move by Uber as it intensifies its foray into autonomous vehicles, supplementing existing partnerships with other AV developers such as Waymo, Pony AI, WeRide, May Mobility, Volkswagen and Avride.

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi described the venture as a decisive milestone: “This partnership brings together two of the world’s most iconic technology companies to help shape the future of mobility. As the world’s largest platform of its kind, spanning mobility, delivery, and freight, Uber is uniquely positioned to help AV leaders like Baidu bring their autonomous technology to the world.” Baidu’s co‑founder and CEO Robin Li added that integrating Baidu’s autonomous driving technology with Uber’s network represents “a major milestone in deploying our technology on a global scale,” aimed at delivering safe, efficient and cost‑effective transport to a wider audience.

Market response to the announcement has been positive: Uber’s shares rose more than 1 % in pre‑market trading in the U. S., while Baidu’s U. S.‑listed stocks surged almost 5 %, reflecting investor confidence in the deal’s potential to accelerate autonomous mobility adoption worldwide.

The initial deployment targets key cities in Asia—potentially including Singapore and Malaysia where Baidu plans to launch Apollo Go this year—and in the Gulf region, where regulatory environments are favourable and infrastructure is supportive. Recent reports highlight that Gulf countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia aim to have at least 25 % of transport in major cities autonomous by 2030‑2040, presenting a promising opportunity for robotaxi services.

Analysts view the Uber‑Baidu partnership as a pivotal step in global AV expansion. By entering markets outside its core regions, Baidu leverages an “asset‑light” international strategy driven by collaboration instead of proprietary platforms. Uber gains immediate access to a proven self‑driving fleet without the development time and costs associated with in‑house technology, bolstering its competitiveness in the robotaxi space, particularly against rivals like Lyft and Waymo.

Safety and regulatory scrutiny remain top concerns. Apollo Go’s record of over 11 million rides with a robust safety profile strengthens public and regulatory confidence. Still, each market’s regulatory readiness varies, requiring phased live testing and strong oversight to meet local licensing standards.

Financially, the deal promises dividend benefits. By significantly increasing supply of robotaxis through Uber’s platform, Baidu stands to accelerate revenue from its autonomous segment, potentially addressing investor concerns over its core advertising business. Uber, which has seen its stock climb 56 % this year, reinforces its diversification into autonomous and freight services ahead of its Q2 earnings report scheduled for 6 August.

Competition is heating up. The Gulf region already hosts partnerships between Uber and Chinese AV firms such as Pony AI and WeRide, both of which are conducting trials or planning roll‑outs in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Baidu’s entry into this competitive space joins a growing group of Chinese robotaxi operators—such as Pony AI, AutoX, DiDi and WeRide—vying for global market share.

While the United States and mainland China remain outside the deal’s scope—due to complex regulatory frameworks and entrenched competition—Uber and Baidu have hinted at future expansions into Europe and Oceania, suggesting a long‑term global vision. Baidu’s ongoing engagement with European regulators, including Switzerland and Turkey, supports predictions for expanded rollout later this year.

China has introduced the world’s first oil tanker equipped with adjustable sails, marking a notable step in maritime decarbonisation. The 250‑metre vessel features automated sails that harness wind power, cutting diesel use by up to 14.5 tonnes per day—equivalent to around 5,000 tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually.

The ship was launched at a major Chinese port on 13 July 2025. Naval engineers report that the sails adjust in real time to wind conditions, seamlessly integrating with traditional propulsion systems. Under favourable conditions, the sails alone can provide up to 10% of the vessel’s forward thrust, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and trimming operational costs.

Industry experts describe this as a breakthrough. Dr Li Wei, a maritime technology specialist at a prominent Chinese university, observed that “this marks the first large‑scale application of intelligent sail technology in an oil tanker” and said that the design “could serve as a blueprint for future green tankers”. While alternative zero‑carbon fuels remain the focus of long‑term strategies, sail augmentation presents a practical interim solution.

The initiative aligns with global regulatory pressures. The International Maritime Organization has committed to halving greenhouse‑gas emissions from shipping by 2050. Flettner‑style rotor sails—used on vessels like the Viking Grace ferry—have shown up to 20% fuel savings on optimal routes. China’s innovation refines that concept by adding adjustable sail arrays tailored for large oil carriers, suggesting broader applicability.

Major energy and shipping firms are reportedly evaluating roll‑outs. A senior executive at a state‑affiliated shipping group noted plans to retrofit a fleet of oil and chemical tankers with adjustable sails by 2027, contingent on performance data. Initial trials aim to quantify actual fuel savings, spreadsheeting data on fuel burn, wind usage hours, and analytics from the ship’s sail‑control system.

Yet questions remain. Retrofit costs, structural modifications, and maintenance demand rigorous cost‑benefit analysis. Port infrastructure adaptation—such as clearance for sails and crew training—must also be addressed. Critics argue that, while useful, sail technology cannot fully eliminate emissions without complementary measures like low‑carbon fuels and electrification.

Nevertheless, China’s venture may shift the conversation. Shipbuilders in Europe, Japan and South Korea are racing to develop hydrogen‑ or ammonia‑powered vessels. China’s move showcases an alternative decarbonisation route by optimising existing diesel‑powered fleets. Multi‑source interviews show growing interest from global charterers, some of whom are signalling willingness to pay premium freight rates for lower‑emission vessels.

Maritime insurers are recalibrating risk models, acknowledging that adjustable sails could affect stability and route safety. The new tanker reportedly features advanced ballast‑control systems to compensate for wind forces and automated cut‑out mechanisms during storms.

Trade analysts say China’s state‑backed strategy gives it leverage in global standards talks. Should pilot data validate the 14.5‑tonne daily fuel savings estimate, Chinese shipyards could license or export the design. Such a trend could trigger wider international adoption, pressuring other nations to follow suit.

Shipowners are watching. A European tanker operator, examining images and footage, expressed interest but noted the need for “transparent data on lifecycle emission reductions and economic viability over 20‑year vessel lifetimes.”

Current trials will last six months to a year, tracking metrics like fuel consumption, sail uptime, and maintenance costs. A detailed performance report is expected by mid‑2026, after which retrofit plans may accelerate.

Oil traded in a narrow range as tariffs and sanctions threats unsettled global markets, weighing heavily on the outlook for energy demand. Brent hovered just above $70 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stayed above $68. Futures markets weakened as U. S. equity-index futures dropped following fresh trade tensions between Washington and key global partners.

U. S. President Donald Trump escalated tariff threats, targeting both the European Union and Mexico with 30 per cent duties and flagging potential levies against Brazil, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea and others. Markets interpreted this as a risk to economic momentum, especially in energy‑sensitive regions of Asia, denting crude demand expectations. At the same time, Asian buyers adopted a cautious stance, amplifying downward pressure on oil.

Against this backdrop, investors are eyeing a scheduled “major statement” from President Trump concerning Russia. Anticipation of new sanctions against the country, a major oil producer, lent modest support to prices that might otherwise have fallen further. Still, this support was checked by rising output from OPEC+ and a pause in geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East.

Data from the International Energy Agency signals that global oil markets remain relatively tight. Summer driving seasons and increased refinery activity have buoyed demand, although analysts note that elevated output from Saudi Arabia—above its OPEC+ quota—puts a dent in any sustained rally. The kingdom disputes claims of non‑compliance, stating marketed crude remains within agreed limits.

Market watchers also flag OPEC+ plans to hike production by approximately 548,000 barrels per day in August, potentially followed by another boost in September. ING warns these moves could put the market into surplus in the final quarter of 2025. Additionally, the group revised its global demand forecasts downward for 2026–29, citing weakening growth in China.

Further clouding the outlook, heightened tariff uncertainty is exerting macroeconomic drag. The IEA forecasts a meaningful drop in global oil consumption growth for 2025, down a third from earlier projections, due in part to Trump’s tariff measures. Analysts stress that inflationary pressures and slower global trade would dampen energy demand.

From a logistical standpoint, renewed Houthi tensions in the Red Sea have introduced another variable, interrupting shipping and supporting prices marginally. Still, Middle East volatility has largely receded compared with levels seen earlier this year.

Looking ahead, market players are set to digest a blend of geopolitical and macroeconomic signals. Key Chinese trade figures due soon may reveal shifts in demand. OPEC+ decisions on output will be scrutinised closely, as will the next moves in Washington’s trade and sanctions policy. Meanwhile, U. S. gasoline consumption remains robust, with the Energy Information Administration reporting a 6 per cent increase to 9.2 million barrels per day—signalling that underlying demand has not yet faltered.

Oil markets are caught between supportive fundamentals—such as strong summer demand, supply constraints from Russia and geopolitical flare‑ups—and sobering headwinds from proposed tariffs, elevated output and macroeconomic uncertainty. Traders remain cautious, awaiting concrete policy developments from Washington, data releases from China, and steps by OPEC+ to navigate a market landscape that is anything but stable.

UAE’s Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure has restated its unwavering aim to lift crude oil production capacity to five million barrels per day by 2027 amid shifting global energy demand. The clarification from Abu Dhabi follows remarks from the Energy Minister indicating potential capacity growth beyond that goal.

Aligned with its declared strategy, the nation insists the 5 million bpd target remains intact. Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al‑Mazrouei, speaking at the Opec International Summit in Vienna, emphasised the UAE could scale up to six million bpd if global markets required—while making clear this figure is not an official target.

Presently, UAE’s production capacity stands at around 4.85 million bpd. The ministry’s public affirmation underscores long‑established plans by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to align with wider economic imperatives, including state‑led diversification and responsible growth.

On the sidelines in Vienna, Minister al‑Mazrouei pointed to oil inventories that have not surged, interpreting it as evidence of sustained market demand. He characterised the additional million barrels potential as a proactive choice, contingent on demand, rather than a binding pledge.

Opec+ has already increased the UAE’s production quota this year, acknowledging its heavy investment in expanding capacity from 3 million to 4.85 million bpd. That quota adjustment reflects a bid to balance output with capacity and avoids penalising investment-led increases.

Global energy forecasts cited at the summit envision oil demand climbing by nearly 19 percent to 123 million bpd by 2050, driven by economic growth, urbanisation, and energy‑intensive industries such as artificial intelligence. Despite this, Opec has revised its short‑term forecast downward amid signs of slowing demand in China. Long‑term growth, however, is expected from regions including Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

ADNOC’s accelerated expansion plan—bringing forward its 5 million bpd capacity objective from 2030 to 2027—was endorsed by the board under the leadership of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, supported by CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber. The strategy forms part of a broader state-led drive combining energy security with economic diversification and sustainability.

While bolstering its crude oil output, ADNOC is also investing heavily in low‑carbon solutions. It allocates about US $5 billion annually to clean energy and has set a net‑zero emissions ambition for 2045. The company is integrating solar and nuclear power into offshore fields and is implementing carbon‑capture technologies in major developments.

ADNOC’s low-carbon division recently acquired Germany’s Covestro for US $16 billion, signalling a move to diversify into value‑added petrochemicals such as plastics, foams and ammonia. Its strategy foregrounds gas, chemicals and downstream operations alongside oil capacity growth, in anticipation of structural shifts in global energy use.

The UAE is poised to become the world’s fourth-largest oil and liquids producer if the anticipated expansion is achieved, trailing only the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia. At six million bpd capacity, it would surpass producers such as Canada, China, Iraq and Iran in scale.

However, uncertainties remain. The pace of global energy transition, the adoption of renewables, and potential peaking of oil demand—especially in China—pose risks to long-term strategy. But the UAE appears ready to hedge by maximizing flexibility: build for five million bpd, yet leave room to stretch if markets demand.

The public reaffirmation by the ministry serves both domestic and international audiences: showcasing earnest delivery of targets, reassuring investors on energy stability, and reinforcing the UAE’s position as a stabilising force within Opec+.

Oil prices have shifted sharply this week, with demand forecasts now under pressure from escalating trade tensions fuelled by fresh tariffs. Brent crude is trading in the high‑60s per barrel, while benchmark WTI hovers around mid‑60s, reflecting growing investor caution. Analysts point to revised supply and demand projections as indicators of a changing market landscape.

An International Energy Agency monthly report has cut its global oil‑demand growth forecast for 2025 to 700,000 bpd, the slowest pace since 2009 outside the pandemic, down from 720,000 bpd last month. The downgrade reflects weaker consumption in emerging markets and a cooling US‑China trade outlook. Supply continues to outpace demand as OPEC+ ramps up production; global output in June rose by about 950,000 bpd to reach 105.6 mbpd.

The IEA notes the oil market remains technically in surplus, with inventories building globally—even as regional stock draws persist. Oil runs at refineries have slowed, particularly in the US and China, enabling downward revisions in demand projections. Enverus Intelligence Research offers a counter‑view, pointing to balanced OECD inventories and sustained summer demand north of 1 mbpd, which may support higher prices.

The US Energy Information Administration expects US crude oil production to plateau at roughly 13.4 mbpd in 2025, dropping modestly later this year as lower prices curb drilling activity. Despite this, producers remain vulnerable to profit erosion unless prices stabilise in the $65–70 range.

President Trump’s trade moves have reignited fears of another global trade war, with new tariff letters dispatched to Brazil, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and others this week. Threats of 50% duties on exports such as copper, semiconductor components and auto parts are weighing heavily on commodity‑linked equity markets and raising recession risk concerns. Oil prices dropped more than 2% on Thursday as benchmark futures responded to the potential hit to economic growth.

While some market participants remain in “wait‑and‑see” mode, given Trump’s unpredictability and history of policy reversals, the overarching effect is to dampen demand forecasts. Onyx Capital’s head of research, Harry Tchilinguirian, cautions against overreaction but acknowledges that tariffs are adding to inflationary pressures and may reinforce Federal Reserve caution.

Geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East continue to influence sentiment. Oil surged in June as Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which handles almost 20% of world oil shipments, but prices eased once the waterway remained open. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised official prices to consumers, citing strong demand in China’s post‑pandemic recovery, though refiners are reporting margin squeezes.

Financial institutions have started to reflect this shifting environment in their projections. A Reuters‑polled group of 40 analysts revised Brent average forecasts for 2025 to $67.86 per barrel—up marginally from May—while predicting demand growth of only around 730,000 bpd. JP Morgan cut its annual Brent estimate to $66, citing rising OPEC+ output and sluggish consumption. TD Economics trimmed its forecast further, expecting 2025 WTI to average near $62, warning of sustained downward pressure from trade risk and oversupply.

Two factors loom large over the coming months. First, the path of trade tensions: further tariff escalations or retaliatory actions could erode industrial activity and fuel sales. Second, OPEC+ strategy: with the bloc unconstrained in raising output, additional production could overwhelm tepid demand, pushing prices below current levels. The IEA projects supply growth for 2025 at 2.1 mbpd, while demand is seen rising just 700 kbpd.

On the financial front, hedge fund positioning has turned cautious, registering the sharpest drop in bullish sentiment since February. Traders are forecasting narrower price ranges ahead, with elevated volatility as tariff developments hit market headlines.

Forward‑looking forecasts remain mixed. EIA projects Brent to average $68.89 in 2025 and $58.48 in 2026, marking a seasonal decline. Enverus suggests the upside remains intact if demand holds steady, especially with summer driving season underway. Market watchers also note that rising gas‑to‑oil switching costs, refinery restarts and diminished spare capacity could temper price declines.

China’s consumption is also under scrutiny. While Beijing seeks to stimulate growth through fiscal and monetary tools, investor sentiment remains fragile. Saudi’s decision to push prices higher was based on perceived strengthening in Chinese demand, but many analysts caution that any slow‑down could rapidly tip the balance.

Emerging long‑term trends offer some balance. IEA’s long‑term outlook suggests oil demand will continue rising through the late 2020s, driven by non‑OECD economies and slower clean‑energy adoption, delaying peak demand beyond 2030. Nonetheless, short‑term price direction seems firmly tied to macroeconomic risks and geopolitical dynamics.

AD Ports Group has initiated operations of GulfLink Ltd, entering a strategic logistics partnership with KTZ Express, the freight arm of Kazakhstan Temir Zholy. This joint venture—51 percent owned by AD Ports and 49 percent by KTZ Express—is designed to enhance connectivity along the Middle Corridor, establishing a vital multimodal supply link between Asia and Europe.

The first shipments through GulfLink began under the leadership of regional CEO Abdulaziz Zayed AlShamsi, who described the venture as “a key link in our strategy to upgrade the Middle Corridor route through Central Asia into a major, commercial East‑West trade artery linking consumers and manufacturers in Asia and Europe”. General Director Damir Kozhakhmetov emphasised that GulfLink delivers “a new level of unique, end‑to‑end connectivity for Kazakhstan regionally and globally”.

Kazakhstan, where rail accounts for approximately 70 percent of freight transit over its 16,000 km network, is central to this development. GulfLink will bolster supply chains by integrating Kazakhstan’s rail infrastructure with routes through Pakistan, Türkiye, the Arabian Gulf and the Indian subcontinent.

As part of AD Ports’s commitment, over US $775 million is earmarked for logistics infrastructure in Kazakhstan. Planned investments include a grain terminal and a multipurpose facility at Kuryk Port, aimed at complementing GulfLink’s multimodal ambitions. The network also encompasses partnerships in Uzbekistan, and facilities on the Black and Caspian Seas via collaboration with KazMorTransFlot.

Industry analysts say GulfLink could significantly reduce China‑to‑Europe transit times. AGBI reports that the route will “cut China‑Europe transit time” by providing direct regional connectivity and bypassing the longer northern rail corridors. This enhancement aligns with global supply chain trends that favour diversification and damper dependency on any single corridor.

CEO Kamal Huseynov stated that GulfLink plans to offer “value added to customers through our relationships, the logistics resources of our shareholders, and our commitment to efficiency, innovation, seamless supply chains and optimised trade”. The venture seeks to become the operating hub for integrated rail, road, sea and air transport in Central Asia.

Reactions from regional stakeholders suggest that GulfLink’s launch may mark a turning point in Eurasian logistics. The joint venture is seen as vital in realising the potential of the Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route—an alternative to the traditional northern rail line through Russia—and is projected to attract new trade volumes via diversified pathways.

AD Ports’s existing regional presence includes a food logistics hub in Uzbekistan and maritime assets in Türkiye and Pakistan. GulfLink’s launch reinforces these assets by contributing to a cohesive network serving Europe, Central Asia and South Asia.

Multimodal trade experts suggest that the GulfLink project addresses a growing appetite among manufacturers and shippers for more resilient and politically diversified supply channels. With geopolitical uncertainties persisting along certain northern corridors, the Middle Corridor’s expansion could offer a strategically advantageous and timely alternative.

The operational phase of GulfLink has commenced with pilot shipments underway, signalling the beginning of active corridor use. AD Ports and KTZ Express intend to progressively scale the venture, adding capacity, routing regularity and service coverage over the coming months.

As GulfLink gains momentum, its success will depend on coordinated infrastructure roll‑out, regulatory alignment across transit jurisdictions, and competitive transit times compared with existing corridors. Analysts agree the venture marks a significant step toward reshaping logistics flows across Eurasia, affirming Kazakhstan’s growing prominence as a logistics hub and AD Ports Group’s strategy to establish itself as a global trade infrastructure enabler.