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Bilateral non-oil trade between the UAE and India surged past US $37.6 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 33.9 per cent increase compared with the same period in the previous year. The UAE’s Foreign Trade Minister, Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, highlighted during his Mumbai visit the pivotal role of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in propelling this growth. Discussions focused on expanding cooperation across pharmaceuticals, food and logistics, alongside Bharat Mart, a 2.7 million sq ft trade complex in Jebel Ali Free Zone designed for Indian exporters to reach markets across the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

Trade figures underscore that CEPA has significantly deepened economic ties. In 2024, non-oil trade between the two nations topped US $65 billion, reflecting a 19.7 per cent increase from 2023 and more than doubling the 2020 tally of US $27.9 billion. UAE investments in India reached around US $17 billion by late 2023, while Indian investments in the UAE climbed to approximately US $8 billion—total mutual investment topping US $25 billion, with the UAE accounting for 70 per cent of that figure.

This dynamic was further backed by the UAE-India CEPA Council’s Start-up Series, which has drawn more than 10,000 applications from Indian entrepreneurs since its launch in June 2025. The initiative, showcased in New Delhi by Ahmed Aljneibi, has made stops at leading institutions including Banaras Hindu University and the Master’s Union School of Business, offering mentorship, regulatory guidance and pathways for cross-border scale-up.

The strategic focus on innovation also extends beyond startups. Sheraa, Sharjah’s entrepreneurship centre, and Startup Middle East signed a memorandum to establish an India Startup Hub in Sharjah, aimed at facilitating the entry of Indian ventures into the UAE market and strengthening regional innovation ecosystems.

Policy measures in the UAE are evolving to match this economic outreach. Amendments to more than 40 laws, most notably the Commercial Companies Law enabling 100 per cent foreign ownership, are part of a broader strategy to double the non-oil economy—from US $381 billion to US $762 billion—by 2030. Foreign trade is viewed as central to achieving that ambition, with the UAE’s connectivity, infrastructure and logistics network seen as vital assets for Indian businesses seeking wider regional access.

CEPA’s architecture underscores its comprehensive approach: since its implementation in May 2022, tariffs on more than 80 per cent of Indian exports to the UAE have been reduced or eliminated immediately, benefiting sectors from gems and jewellery to pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Additional gains accrue from streamlined customs protocols, regulatory harmonisation and a joint committee addressing market-access and technical barriers.

Experts point to CEPA as transformative for both economies. Indian gems and jewellery exports more than doubled from US $4.9 billion to US $8 billion in fiscal year 2024, aided by duty removals. Labour-intensive industries such as textiles, leather, footwear, sports goods, plastics, furniture, engineering goods, agricultural produce and food items have also gained momentum, while regulatory alignment has accelerated entry of generic drugs and medical devices, boosting health-sector cooperation and supply-chain resilience.

Further integration is visible in emerging fintech and logistics initiatives. Bharat Mart reinforces logistical synergy, while the nascent Virtual Trade Corridor, fintech sandboxes and experiments such as India’s MagRail pilot demonstrate growing interoperability in digital trade and compliance systems.

At the political level, the CEPA enters its third year this February. Al Zeyoudi noted that India remains the UAE’s second-largest non-oil export destination, accounting for 13.5 per cent of total non-oil exports in 2024—a 75.2 per cent rise year-on-year. Conversely, the UAE is India’s third-largest trading partner and a major investor, illustrating the strategic depth CEPA has added to bilateral ties.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said today that a free‑trade agreement with Oman will be finalised soon, while Qatar has expressed interest in negotiating a similar pact. Concurrently, he confirmed that negotiations with the European Union are gathering pace.

Speaking at a New Delhi event, Goyal assured exporters of government support to navigate global trade uncertainties—particularly those triggered by unilateral policies of other nations. He emphasised ongoing consultations with stakeholders, including Indian diplomatic missions, aimed at diversifying export markets and strengthening domestic consumption through Goods and Services Tax reforms. Goyal asserted that exports this year are poised to exceed last year’s levels.

Progress on the Oman front appears particularly advanced. Goyal characterised the India–Oman free‑trade agreement as “almost finalised,” suggesting that formal conclusion is within reach.

At the same time, Goyal reiterated that Qatar, along with Saudi Arabia, is keen on forging trade agreements with India, signalling growing interest from Gulf cooperation partners. Notably, India and Qatar had earlier set a goal to double bilateral trade to US$28 billion over five years—a vision reinforced by renewed discussions of a free‑trade pact.

Meanwhile, Europe remains a focal point. Goyal referenced rapid progress in FTA talks with the EU, and earlier this year had projected that negotiations could be concluded before the end of 2025. He expressed confidence that both sides may even exceed expectations and wrap up the deal ahead of schedule. The European Commissioner for Trade, Maroš Šefčovič, is expected in New Delhi in September to oversee the conclusion of the 13th round of discussions, which are likely to address remaining sticking points.

Goyal portrayed this as part of a broader, much‑intensified trade diplomacy, describing India’s approach as negotiations “from morning till evening” with multiple partners including the US, Chile, Peru, and others. He emphasised that each agreement will be grounded in national interest and industrial benefit, stressing that India will uphold its self‑respect and not compromise in negotiations—even as global trade tensions evolve.

These developments unfold against a backdrop of mounting trade headwinds. India’s share in global trade remains relatively modest, at around 2 percent, while nearly 40 percent of its exports to the US remain outside the scope of the newly imposed 50 percent tariffs—muting some of the trade impact.

India’s trade strategy appears to be one of diversification and resilience, deepening ties across regions—from the Gulf to Europe to the Americas. With multiple free-trade agendas advancing simultaneously, key pivots such as the Oman deal, Gulf engagement, and an EU agreement could reshape economic dynamics in the coming months.

UAE companies are recalibrating their compensation strategies amid evolving market pressures, rising costs, and intensifying competition for skilled professionals.

Salary growth across the board is projected at a modest 4 per cent in 2025, reflecting economic moderation rather than exuberance. Mercer’s Total Remuneration Survey indicates that more than 28 per cent of firms plan to increase headcount, signalling a continuing demand for talent despite budgetary constraints. In-demand sectors such as technology, life sciences, and consumer goods are expected to see slightly higher increases—around 4.2 to 4.5 per cent—while energy and financial services align with the broader average.

MaxHR’s projections paint a slightly more optimistic picture for key verticals: salary hikes for technology roles could reach 8–12 per cent, while finance and banking roles may grow by 5–7 per cent, significantly outpacing other industries.

Employers are embracing variable compensation as cash-strapped budgets and workforce expectations diverge. There is a growing preference for pay-for-performance models, personalised benefits, and flexibility—designed to engage younger professionals who prioritise purpose and work-life integration alongside financial reward.

These shifts align with broader market signals. Tuscan Consulting notes that after post‑pandemic salary surges, firms are now reassessing compensation strategies, balancing retention needs with cost control. Executive packages increasingly include sign‑on or retention bonuses, deferred incentives, and more nuanced benchmarking—often comparing pay between UAE and KSA to remain competitive.

Yet not all data points suggest growth. Business Insider reports that salaries across the UAE may remain flat in 2025, attributed to a swelling expat population that expands the available talent pool and reduces pressure on employers to offer premium pay. Meanwhile, exponential increases in living costs—rent rose 16 per cent in the prior year—have squeezed middle-income professionals, eroding disposable income despite tax‑free earnings.

At the same time, the Dubai government is extending a labour-market lifeline to targeted expatriates, offering roles with monthly salaries up to Dh 50,000. This contrasts with the broader cautious recruitment trends in the private sector, where AI, automation, and tax uncertainties are prompting a more measured approach to hiring.

Dubai’s finance sector is expanding—hiring regulators, investment bankers, and compliance professionals to match its rapid growth. Compensation packages often exceed those in London by up to four times once tax advantages and relocation benefits are included, although professionals note that reward expectations and infrastructure pressures are testing the city’s appeal.

A cohesive picture emerges: employers are shifting from purely salary-driven offerings to total-reward packages that integrate flexibility, performance incentives, and career development. While headline salaries may be easing off, especially for mid-tier roles, specialized sectors and public entities continue to push compensation envelopes to secure talent and drive strategic priorities.

Major players and startups are racing to establish dominance in India’s quick‑commerce landscape, where urban consumers now expect deliveries within minutes. Blinkit, Zepto, Instamart, Amazon Now, BigBasket Now and others are expanding rapidly, focusing both on speed and diversification beyond groceries, even as questions mount over sustainability.

Blinkit, the q‑commerce arm of Eternal, delivered a sharp uplift in adjusted revenue for the first quarter of 2025, reaching ₹71.67 billion—a year‑on‑year increase of more than 70 per cent. However, soaring expenses, largely driven by aggressive discounting and the rapid build‑out of “dark stores,” pulled net profit down by nearly 90 per cent to ₹250 million. Blinkit continues to lead in the segment, delivering groceries and essentials within 10 minutes across more than 30 cities.

Zepto, founded in 2021 by Aadit Palicha and Kaivalya Vohra, has built a dense network of dark stores across ten metropolitan areas and operates over 250 stores as of 2024. Its valuation has surged past $5 billion, underpinned by a leap in FY24 revenue to ₹4,454 crore.

Swiggy’s Instamart continues recalibrating its business, shifting from its origins in restaurant delivery to prioritising ultra-fast delivery of grocery and everyday items in a broader consumer market.

Global giants are also aggressively entering the fray. Amazon’s “Now” 10‑minute delivery service, first piloted in Bengaluru, has now rolled out across select New Delhi pin codes. Flipkart, backed by Walmart, has likewise deployed its rapid‑delivery offering in the country. Competition has intensified, with both global and domestic players vying to own consumer mindshare.

Market projections suggest explosive growth: quick‑commerce has scaled from about $300 million in 2022 to $7.1 billion in 2025, with forecasts projecting a staggering $40 billion by 2030. Growth is being fuelled not only by metro usage, but also by demand in tier‑2 and tier‑3 cities, which have accounted for 60 per cent of new e‑retail customers since 2020.

To support this infrastructure leap, commercial property heights are shifting downwards—hyperlocal warehousing is surging in both major metros and smaller cities. Platforms are converting underused urban spaces—like basements and small plots—into rapid fulfilment hubs to meet expectations of 10‑ to 15‑minute deliveries.

Still, financial caution flags are being raised. Gopal Srinivasan, chairman of TVS Capital Funds, has warned that India’s quick‑commerce boom may be a “passing fad,” sustained mainly by private equity and venture capital rather than sustainable economics. Industry observers point to sharp increases in customer acquisition costs, shrinking margins, and low consumer loyalty if discounts and free delivery models are scaled back.

The origins of the model lie in a consumer demand for ultra‑fast replenishment, transforming smartphones into virtual marketplaces not just for staples, but festive goods, personal care items, apparel and electronics—especially during cultural festivals like Raksha Bandhan.

A financial corridor is emerging beneath the digital storefronts: hyperlocal logistics operators such as Xpressbees, already present in over 4,500 service centres and 250 hubs by March 2025, are becoming critical partners to power the last‑mile challenge.

Traditional players are also adapting. BigBasket, owned by Tata Digital, has introduced a 10‑minute food delivery service in Bengaluru, including offerings from Tata Starbucks and IHCL’s Qmin platform.

Amazon has approached the Commerce Ministry with a proposal to modify foreign direct investment rules by creating a carve-out for export transactions. The company is requesting permission to purchase goods directly from Indian sellers for overseas sales, a departure from the longstanding policy that restricts foreign e-commerce firms to pure marketplace operations.

The policy currently prohibits platforms like Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart from holding inventory or selling directly to consumers, aiming to protect small retailers by ensuring a level playing field. Amazon’s pitch emphasises that an export exemption would benefit small Indian sellers by streamlining customs procedures and improving access to international markets. The company adds that it has facilitated US$13 billion in cumulative exporter earnings since 2015 and targets US$80 billion by 2030.

From the Commerce Ministry’s internal documents, it is clear that no decision has been made yet. Any policy adjustment must strictly safeguard the domestic retail market by clearly delineating goods intended solely for export from those that could be sold locally.

The move faces strong resistance. Three industry groups, representing small retailers, voiced concerns during the meeting that Amazon—and Flipkart, which also attended—would gain unfair advantages through preferential arrangements and heavy discounting, further marginalising small businesses.

Amazon and Flipkart did not offer comment at the time, and the Commerce Ministry has not yet responded publicly to media queries.

This development takes place against the backdrop of India’s rapidly expanding e-commerce space, valued at approximately US$125 billion in 2024 and projected to swell to US$345 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, foreign e-commerce operators, particularly U. S.-based Amazon and Flipkart, have long contended that the inventory-based model they use globally is impeded in India by FDI restrictions—restrictions designed to prevent foreign platforms from influencing pricing or favouring affiliated sellers.

Amazon’s request interlinks with broader efforts in the export ecosystem. Earlier this month, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations agreed to sign an MoU with Amazon to support exporters via cross-border e-commerce, including training, compliance assistance and market access support.

The issue also ties into wider trade dynamics. U. S.–India trade tensions remain unresolved, and Amazon’s proposal adds complexity to ongoing discussions. Modifying FDI norms for the export segment could influence negotiations and set precedents for how e-commerce platforms operate within the country.

As exporters grapple with global headwinds, including rising tariffs in key sectors, the government is evaluating how regulatory changes could facilitate global access without dismantling protections for domestic retail.

The first half of 2025 marked a significant surge in greenfield foreign direct investment into Saudi Arabia, with the United States leading the charge. American investors drove 61 projects, injecting $2.7 billion into the Kingdom’s economy, accounting for nearly a third of both the project count and total investment. This surge highlights the growing confidence of international investors in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 economic reforms and its appeal as a business hub in the region.

According to a report by Emirates NBD, greenfield investments in Saudi Arabia showed a notable increase, both in terms of project volume and capital inflow. In total, 203 greenfield projects were launched in Saudi Arabia during the first half of 2025, marking a 30.1% year-on-year rise. These projects, spanning across various sectors, reflect the country’s strong development trajectory and its efforts to diversify away from oil reliance.

Egypt emerged as the second largest contributor to Saudi Arabia’s greenfield FDI, securing $1.81 billion through 11 projects. Many of these ventures were centered around real estate developments, capitalising on the Kingdom’s expanding urbanisation and demand for residential and commercial properties. Egypt’s growing involvement reflects deeper ties between the two nations, particularly in sectors related to infrastructure and housing.

China, a global FDI powerhouse, played a significant role as well, investing $858.3 million through 11 projects in Saudi Arabia. China’s investments in the Kingdom primarily focused on manufacturing, technology, and energy, complementing the Saudi government’s drive to expand its industrial base and modernise key sectors. Chinese companies are also playing a pivotal role in the development of high-tech infrastructure, which aligns with Saudi Arabia’s push towards a more diversified, knowledge-based economy.

France also made its presence felt, contributing $771.7 million through six greenfield projects. The French investments were primarily focused on technology, retail, and luxury goods, with several high-end brands expanding their operations within the Kingdom. France’s engagement is part of a broader European interest in tapping into Saudi Arabia’s expanding consumer market, particularly in areas linked to fashion, entertainment, and sustainable energy.

The UAE’s regional influence continued to grow, with 25 projects worth $205.3 million being launched in Saudi Arabia. These ventures spanned various industries, with a focus on hospitality, logistics, and real estate. The UAE’s investments underscore the close business ties between the two countries, with the Kingdom remaining a key destination for Emirati capital looking to expand its footprint in the region.

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital, was the top destination for greenfield FDI, attracting 100 projects valued at $2.3 billion. As the political, economic, and cultural centre of the country, Riyadh continues to benefit from the majority of investments, particularly in the areas of technology, infrastructure, and urban development. Dammam, home to one of the Kingdom’s key industrial hubs, secured 21 projects worth $1.28 billion, while Jeddah followed closely with 13 projects totalling $1.22 billion. These cities represent strategic focal points in Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plans for diversification, driven by growth in manufacturing, logistics, and energy.

Saudi Arabia’s overall greenfield FDI rose by 1.7% to $9.34 billion during the first half of 2025, reflecting the Kingdom’s position as an attractive investment destination. The growth is seen as a direct result of efforts to enhance the ease of doing business in the country and to create a more transparent regulatory environment. Initiatives like the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program and the Saudi Green Initiative have been instrumental in drawing foreign investments into the Kingdom.