News related to
Low oil

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is exploring the possibility of listing its international investment subsidiary, XRG, on a stock exchange outside the United Arab Emirates. This strategic move could position XRG among the world’s largest publicly traded energy entities.

According to individuals familiar with the matter, discussions are in the preliminary stages, with Bank of America providing strategic guidance. The potential public offering would involve a minority stake and is anticipated to occur within the next five years. Prior to any listing, ADNOC must appoint a Chief Executive Officer for XRG and transfer relevant assets to the subsidiary.

Established in late 2024, XRG serves as ADNOC’s vehicle for expanding into lower-carbon energy, natural gas, and chemicals sectors. The subsidiary’s formation aligns with ADNOC’s broader strategy to diversify its portfolio beyond traditional oil revenues, reflecting a global industry trend towards sustainable and diversified energy solutions.

Potential venues for the listing include major international exchanges such as London and New York. Each offers distinct advantages, with London providing a robust investor base for energy companies and New York offering unparalleled liquidity and global visibility. The final decision will hinge on various factors, including valuation prospects and strategic alignment with XRG’s growth objectives.

With an estimated valuation exceeding $80 billion, XRG’s public debut would mark a significant milestone in the energy sector. For context, Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering in 2019 raised $25.6 billion, underscoring the scale of XRG’s potential market entry.

ADNOC’s recent activities underscore its commitment to global expansion and diversification. The company has been actively involved in international deals, including mergers and acquisitions in petrochemicals, chemicals, liquefied natural gas , and hydrogen projects. Notably, ADNOC has transferred its U.S. investments, such as stakes in an ExxonMobil hydrogen plant and NextDecade’s LNG export facility in Texas, to XRG. This move signifies ADNOC’s intent to consolidate its international ventures under the XRG umbrella, streamlining operations and enhancing strategic focus.

Saudi National Bank has successfully issued a $750 million five-year Formosa bond, attracting an order book totaling $1.1 billion, including $121 million from joint lead managers. The bond, priced at the Secured Overnight Financing Rate plus 120 basis points, is scheduled to be listed on the Taipei Exchange on 17th March. Crédit Agricole CIB and KGI Securities Co Ltd served as joint managers, with HSBC acting as the lead manager.

Formosa bonds are debt instruments issued in Taiwan but denominated in foreign currencies, typically targeting international investors seeking exposure to foreign issuers. This issuance marks SNB’s second foray into the Formosa market, following its inaugural $500 million five-year senior unsecured floating-rate note bond in July 2024. That initial issuance was part of SNB’s $5 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme and was notable for being the first by a Saudi bank in the Taiwanese market.

The latest bond issuance underscores SNB’s strategic efforts to diversify its funding sources and strengthen its presence in international capital markets. The oversubscription by $350 million indicates robust investor confidence in SNB’s creditworthiness and the economic stability of Saudi Arabia. This confidence is further bolstered by the bank’s proactive engagement with a broad set of top-tier international investors, reflecting the strong appeal of SNB’s credit profile to the global investor community.

In the broader context, Gulf Cooperation Council banks have been increasingly tapping into the Formosa bond market to diversify their funding bases and access competitive pricing. For instance, Qatar National Bank Group, the region’s largest bank, completed a $1 billion five-year Formosa bond issuance under its Euro Medium Term Note Programme in the first half of 2024. This trend highlights the growing significance of the Formosa market as an attractive platform for Middle Eastern banks seeking to broaden their investor base and secure favorable funding terms.

SNB’s successful bond issuance aligns with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiatives, which aim to diversify the Kingdom’s economy and reduce its dependence on oil revenues. By accessing international capital markets and engaging with a diverse range of investors, SNB is contributing to the development of a more resilient and diversified financial sector in Saudi Arabia.

The choice of SOFR as the benchmark rate for the bond pricing reflects a broader shift in global financial markets toward alternative reference rates, following the phase-out of the London Interbank Offered Rate . SOFR, based on overnight transactions in the U.S. Treasury repurchase market, is considered a more robust and reliable benchmark, aligning with international best practices.

China has set an ambitious economic growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, maintaining the same figure as the previous year, despite ongoing tensions with the United States in the form of a prolonged tariff war. This announcement comes at a time when both countries are embroiled in a cycle of escalating trade restrictions, and experts are closely watching the impact these developments will have on global economic stability.

The Chinese government’s decision to maintain its 5% growth target for 2025 is indicative of its continued focus on achieving steady economic expansion in the face of significant external challenges. The target is in line with that of 2024, as the country seeks to navigate its way through a complicated geopolitical landscape. Despite the slowdown in the global economy and intensifying trade disputes with Washington, the Chinese government is prioritising stability, especially as it prepares for its own domestic policy goals, including technological self-sufficiency and boosting domestic consumption.

In an attempt to strengthen its economic position, China has introduced retaliatory tariffs on key American imports, notably targeting agricultural products. These include 15% tariffs on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton from the U.S., alongside a 10% levy on a broader range of agricultural commodities such as sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. This is a clear response to U.S. tariffs that have impacted Chinese industries, particularly in sectors such as electronics and consumer goods. The trade dispute, which has evolved over the years, now impacts critical supply chains, particularly in sectors where the U.S. and China have intertwined economies.

In parallel with the tariff increases, China has expanded its list of American companies subject to export controls. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce recently added 15 more American firms to its export control list, including drone manufacturer Skydio. This measure is aimed at restricting Chinese firms from providing dual-use technologies—equipment that can serve both civilian and military purposes—to these companies. The move is a direct response to U.S. actions, particularly those targeting Chinese firms like Huawei and TikTok in previous years. By limiting access to advanced technology, China seeks to ensure its technological independence, especially in areas of high strategic importance, such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and aerospace.

The trade war, which began under former President Donald Trump, has seen both countries impose tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of goods. Although the Biden administration initially sought to soften the stance, tensions have reignited as both nations continue to use tariffs as a bargaining chip. The announcement of a 5% growth target comes as China faces several challenges, not only from the trade war but also from domestic economic pressures such as rising debt levels, a struggling property sector, and an aging population.

While the 5% growth target may appear conservative compared to China’s previous years of double-digit expansion, analysts argue that it reflects a more sustainable growth trajectory in the current global climate. The focus is now shifting towards quality growth, with an emphasis on high-tech industries, innovation, and green development. For the Chinese government, maintaining this growth rate is essential for ensuring social stability and reinforcing the Communist Party’s control over the country.

The U.S.-China trade war has led to significant disruptions in global markets, with both sides suffering economic consequences. For instance, the U.S. has seen its farmers and manufacturers experience difficulties due to China’s retaliatory tariffs. At the same time, Chinese companies have faced hurdles in securing advanced technology from U.S. suppliers. This has led to shifts in global supply chains, as companies increasingly seek to diversify their production away from China to avoid the risks posed by further trade escalation.

In response to these challenges, China has been actively exploring alternative markets. This includes strengthening its trade ties with countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as well as making efforts to deepen its economic integration with the European Union. Furthermore, China has focused on boosting its domestic consumption, aiming to reduce its reliance on exports as a driver of growth. This approach has led to the expansion of industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, which are seen as crucial for the country’s long-term economic future.

Despite the economic headwinds, China’s leadership remains resolute in its plans to ensure economic growth through a mixture of policy tools. Measures such as infrastructure spending, financial support for key industries, and a continued push for technological advancements are central to these plans. The government’s ability to navigate through this tumultuous period will largely depend on its ability to manage both domestic challenges and international relations, particularly with the U.S.

Oil prices in the Middle East have experienced a significant decline, with the cost of Oman crude on the Gulf Mercantile Exchange falling below Brent crude for the first time since late 2024. This shift marks the end of the Middle Eastern grade’s longest run of premiums over the global benchmark since 2023. The downturn is largely attributed to the anticipated increase in oil supplies from OPEC+ nations, prompting a selloff in the region’s crudes.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, have confirmed plans to proceed with a gradual increase in oil production starting April 2025. This decision involves unwinding the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts that were implemented to stabilize the market. The phased approach will see an average monthly rise of 137,000 bpd, extending until September 2026. Notably, the United Arab Emirates will receive a 300,000 bpd increase in its production target over this period.

This strategic move by OPEC+ reflects a response to healthier market fundamentals and a positive outlook for global oil demand. However, the group has emphasized flexibility, stating that the planned production increases may be paused or reversed if market conditions warrant such adjustments. This adaptability aims to maintain oil market stability amid evolving economic landscapes.

The announcement has exerted downward pressure on global oil prices. Brent crude futures fell by 1.6%, settling at $71.62 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 2.0%, closing at $68.37 per barrel. These figures represent the lowest closing prices for Brent and WTI since early December 2024.

Market analysts attribute the price decline to multiple factors beyond the anticipated OPEC+ supply boost. President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as increasing duties on Chinese goods, has raised concerns about potential dampening effects on energy demand. Additionally, the U.S. decision to pause military aid to Ukraine and speculation about easing sanctions on Russia have contributed to market volatility and uncertainty.

The increase in oil production is expected to come from several OPEC members and their allies, adding approximately 2.2 million barrels over the next 18 months. Analysts suggest that this decision could lead to oversupply issues, further pressuring prices if demand does not keep pace. This situation has negatively impacted major oil company stocks, with significant declines observed in Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and Total Energies.

The shifting dynamics in the oil market underscore a potential transition of influence from traditional producers like OPEC to other global players. The rise of electric vehicles, advancements in fuel efficiency, and reduced reliance on oil for power and heating have contributed to weaker demand, challenging the market power of oil-producing nations.

Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways has deferred its anticipated $1 billion initial public offering until at least next month, following the Eid al-Fitr holiday, according to individuals familiar with the matter. While the airline had not officially announced a specific date for the IPO, sources indicated that an announcement was expected last week, coinciding with Etihad’s report of a substantial profit increase. The reasons for the delay remain undisclosed, as those privy to the situation have chosen to remain anonymous. Both Etihad and its parent company, Abu Dhabi’s $225 billion wealth fund ADQ, have declined to comment on the postponement.

The planned IPO is significant, marking the first major listing of a Gulf airline in nearly two decades. Etihad, established in 2003, had intended to offer approximately 20% of its business through the share issuance to support its growth ambitions. The airline has undergone extensive restructuring and management changes in recent years but has shown signs of expansion under the leadership of CEO Antonoaldo Neves. In its latest financial disclosures, Etihad reported a net profit that more than tripled to $476 million, reflecting a robust recovery in the aviation sector.

The Gulf region has witnessed a surge in IPO activity as governments seek to diversify their economies beyond oil revenues. Etihad’s move to go public aligns with this broader strategy, aiming to attract foreign investment and enhance corporate governance. However, the airline industry globally has faced challenges, including delivery delays, labor disruptions, and rising operational costs. Despite these hurdles, Etihad’s planned IPO has been viewed as a potential bright spot for investors, given the airline’s strategic position and growth prospects.

The delay in the IPO may prompt investors and industry analysts to reassess the timing and valuation of the offering. Market conditions, geopolitical factors, and internal strategic considerations often influence such decisions. As the new timeline extends beyond the Eid al-Fitr holiday, stakeholders will be keenly observing Etihad’s next steps and any further communications regarding the IPO.

Saudi Arabia’s ambitious $124 billion dividend payout to Aramco shareholders is facing increasing scrutiny as the kingdom grapples with rising fiscal pressures and economic uncertainty. The payout, one of the largest in history, is at the heart of the country’s financial strategy, but concerns about the sustainability of this massive distribution are growing.

The kingdom has long relied on its state-owned oil giant, Saudi Aramco, as a major source of revenue, particularly in funding its Vision 2030 diversification programme. However, with global oil prices experiencing volatility and the kingdom’s economic growth showing signs of strain, questions are being raised about whether such a hefty payout can continue to be supported by the nation’s financial structure.

Saudi Arabia’s fiscal challenges are not new but have intensified recently due to various factors, including fluctuations in oil prices and a need to fund extensive public sector projects aimed at reducing the kingdom’s dependence on oil exports. This shift towards diversification involves significant investments in non-oil sectors such as technology, entertainment, and tourism. While these sectors hold promise for future growth, they have not yet generated the same level of revenue as oil, leaving the government in a delicate position.

Aramco’s profits have been a key contributor to the kingdom’s financial health, with the company remaining one of the world’s most profitable corporations. In 2023, Aramco’s net income exceeded $160 billion, allowing it to maintain its status as the highest dividend-paying company globally. This enabled the state to continue its lavish payouts to shareholders, including the Saudi government itself, which holds a majority stake.

Despite Aramco’s healthy profits, the global energy landscape has shifted significantly. Rising energy costs, geopolitical instability, and increasing competition from renewable energy sources are all factors that could impact the oil industry’s long-term profitability. Saudi Arabia’s ability to balance these challenges with its ambitious payout policy could prove to be a major hurdle.

The kingdom’s fiscal outlook is further complicated by its commitment to maintaining its social and economic development programs, which are pivotal for the success of Vision 2030. The state has allocated significant sums to infrastructure, healthcare, and housing initiatives, all of which are critical for securing the country’s long-term economic stability. However, these expenditures, combined with the substantial payout to Aramco shareholders, create a significant strain on public finances.

To address these challenges, Saudi Arabia is looking to restructure its approach to fiscal management, exploring options such as public debt and non-oil revenue streams. Some analysts suggest that this could involve revising the Aramco dividend model, potentially reducing the payout in favour of reinvesting in the country’s non-oil sectors.

The pressure on the Saudi government is not only financial but also political. With global attention focused on Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms, any deviation from its ambitious growth plans could undermine investor confidence, which has been a cornerstone of its economic strategy. International investors, particularly those in the energy sector, are closely monitoring the situation, aware that any decision to alter the dividend payout could have ripple effects throughout the global markets.

The geopolitical landscape adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Saudi Arabia’s position within OPEC and its ongoing efforts to stabilise global oil prices play a key role in its economic future. However, OPEC’s decisions are increasingly influenced by non-member countries and shifting global consumption patterns. As demand for oil from traditional markets in Europe and the US declines, Saudi Arabia faces the dual challenge of maintaining oil revenues while simultaneously adapting to a future in which oil may no longer be the dominant driver of global growth.

In the wake of these uncertainties, Aramco’s leadership remains focused on enhancing its operations and securing long-term profitability. The company has committed to expanding its investments in petrochemicals, refining, and other energy-related sectors, as well as pursuing green energy initiatives that could ensure its relevance in the post-oil era. However, even with these efforts, Aramco faces growing competition from other energy giants and the increasing pressure to adopt sustainable practices in response to global climate concerns.

Saudi Arabia’s fiscal trajectory will likely remain unpredictable for the foreseeable future, especially as the country navigates the complexities of economic diversification while maintaining its oil revenue base. The government’s ability to balance its financial commitments to both Aramco and its broader economic goals will be crucial in shaping the future of its financial landscape.