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Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund posted a 60 per cent plunge in net profit for 2024, even as its assets surpassed the US $1 trillion mark, the fund disclosed on 30 June. The drop came amid persistent high interest rates, inflationary pressures, and a wave of impairments tied to escalated costs and shifting operational plans.

Net income dwindled to 25.8 billion riyals, down sharply from 64.4 billion riyals in the prior year. This contrast underscored the divergence between headline growth and bottom‑line volatility within Saudi Arabia’s principal engine for economic diversification.

Assets under management rose by 18 per cent to 4.321 trillion riyals, up from 3.664 trillion riyals in 2023. The surge came largely from fresh capital injections, including transfers from oil‑linked revenues, plus appreciation in existing holdings, particularly in domestic champions such as Saudi Aramco and Saudi National Bank.

Yet, comprehensive income—an accounting measure that factors in unrealised gains and asset revaluations—tipped into negative territory, registering a 140 billion riyals loss following a gain of 138.1 billion riyals the previous year. The swing reflected deep writedowns, tied to project revaluations across the PIF’s footprint.

Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, attributed the downturn in part to recalibration of investment strategies. She highlighted how “prioritisation of some projects and the extension in the timelines of some giga projects could have been a factor for the impairments,” and pointed to rising costs as another pressure point.

Among these giga‑projects is NEOM, an ambitious urban megacity on Saudi’s Red Sea coast. Backed by hundreds of billions of dollars in PIF funding, NEOM remains central to the fund’s strategy, though its scale and timeline have been under increased scrutiny amid cost inflation and changing economic dynamics.

Cash reserves stood firm at 316 billion riyals, while group loans edged up to 570 billion riyals, signalling ongoing borrowing to propel expansions. This reflects PIF’s dual posture: aggressive investment on one hand, and debt financing on the other.

Historically, PIF has been pivotal to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 programme—Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s blueprint to reduce national dependence on oil by building world‑class tourism, tech and renewable sectors. Since 2015, the fund’s remit expanded from passive equity holdings to sovereign‑directed mega‑investments. By end‑2024, PIF had amassed over US $1 trillion in assets, bolstered by successive Aramco asset transfers.

Its investment portfolio spans global holdings—Uber, Boeing, Disney—and domestic ventures like Qiddiya, the Red Sea luxury resort and NEOM. The fund also pursued high‑profile investments, including planned stakes in Heathrow Airport and European hotel chains. Overseeing this expansion has drawn both political and governance scrutiny, reflecting complex trade‑offs under Saudi rules.

Despite today’s profit contraction, the growth in assets cements the fund’s scale and influence. Dividends from Aramco and SNB now fuel a substantial portion of PIF’s recurring income, augmenting returns from non‑oil investments.

The portfolio writedowns—particularly impairments linked to escalated project outlays—underline broader macroeconomic challenges. High global interest rates have upped the cost of capital for long‑gestating developments, while inflation has pushed construction, labour and materials costs upward. PIF’s balance sheet has borne both pressures.

Operating amid this headwind, the fund has begun recalibrating timelines and reprioritising capital deployment. Malik’s comments suggest PIF faces a complex balancing act: stewarding mega‑projects while preserving fiscal discipline. Illiquidity risk, rising debt and market exposure also feature in ongoing risk assessments.

In parallel, PIF is broadening its footprint via bond issuances and global partnerships. According to finance industry disclosures, it is preparing a seven‑year sukuk targeting US $1.25 billion in proceeds. Such moves signal evolving financing strategies that complement traditional government funding and cash reserves.

Central to this outlook is Vision 2030. Despite the profit slump, PIF retains its mandate to catalyse non‑oil economic sectors, from tourism to tech to renewable energy. Arab regional peers have pursued similar diversification, but few match PIF’s scale. The fund’s willingness to shoulder large‑scale writedowns may reflect long‑term thinking: strategic build‑out today, stabilised returns in future decades.

Global investors and markets will likely watch upcoming quarterly and full‑year data for signs of recovery or further calibrations. Rising global interest rates remain a wildcard. Additionally, cost overruns in mega‑projects may prompt sharper scrutiny and public debate about deliverables.

PIF’s holding company, chaired by the Crown Prince, retains political backing, but governance observers continue to emphasise improved transparency and oversight. The fund’s decisions now carry wider implications: not just for returns, but as a barometer for Saudi Arabia’s Long‑Term economic strategy.

Net foreign direct investment surged to SAR 22.2 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 44 per cent year‑on‑year rise, the General Authority for Statistics reported on Sunday. Though slightly down from SAR 24 billion in Q4 2024, the inflows underscore robust investor interest. Meanwhile, unemployment eased across the board, with significant gains for women and youth.

Government data show inward FDI at SAR 24 billion in Q1, a 24 per cent increase year‑on‑year but a 6 per cent dip compared to late 2024. Despite this quarterly slowdown, inflows remain well above Q1 2024’s SAR 19.4 billion. The rebound follows strategic efforts under Vision 2030, including high-profile giga‑projects in tourism, sports and entertainment and regulatory reforms aimed at boosting foreign investor confidence.

Analysts caution that current FDI levels are still far short of Saudi Arabia’s $100 billion annual target. Obstacles such as a complex legal environment and perceptions of the Kingdom as a capital exporter persist. The government has responded by conditioning state‑contract awards on regional headquarters being based locally, along with plans to overhaul investment laws to increase transparency.

On the labour front, the overall unemployment rate for people aged 15 and above dropped to 7.8 per cent in Q1, down from 8.5 per cent in Q4 2024. Among Saudi nationals, unemployment eased to 7.6 per cent, compared to 8.4 per cent in the previous quarter; male unemployment declined from 5.1 per cent to 4.7 per cent and female unemployment from 14.3 per cent to 13 per cent.

These figures follow earlier statistics showing an even lower unemployment rate among Saudi nationals: 6.3 per cent, the lowest on record, driven in part by historic falls in female joblessness, which reached 10.5 per cent. GASTAT’s labour bulletin also highlighted a rise in overall participation to 68.2 per cent, up 1.8 points from Q4 2024. Within that, Saudi male participation climbed to 66.4 per cent, while female participation rose to 36.3 per cent.

The youth labour market showed varied outcomes: unemployment among young Saudi women fell to 11.6 per cent, while male youth unemployment dropped to 11.6 per cent as well, even as their participation rate declined. Experts link these shifts to targeted labour reforms, including expanded digital employment platforms such as Jadarat, and programmes that encourage female workforce inclusion under Vision 2030.

Economic diversification is evident in the deeper GDP breakdown. Non‑oil sectors grew by 4.2 per cent in Q1, significantly outpacing oil activity, which fell by 1.4 per cent, according to GASTAT. Government services also rose by 3.2 per cent, driving overall GDP growth of 2.7 per cent year‑on‑year. These shifts highlight the evolving composition of the economy away from hydrocarbons.

The resilience in FDI and labour metrics comes amid projected fiscal pressures. Saudi Arabia is expected to run a SAR 101 billion deficit in 2025, to be funded largely through debt. Even so, credit agencies note that net public debt remains low at approximately 17 per cent of GDP, leaving room for continued borrowing.

Policy-makers point to dynamic growth in private‑sector activity and infrastructure investment as evidence of broader momentum. Nonetheless, flows remain below long‑term targets, and uncertainties linger over the pace of regulatory liberalisation and investor protections.

Combined, these indicators illustrate an economy in transition. FDI strength and labour market improvement reflect clear progress, especially on domestic policy fronts aligned with Vision 2030 goals. Yet government targets for transformative investment and full private‑sector integration remain distant, and persistent structural rigidities could slow advancement.

Moving forward, success will hinge on deepening institutional reforms—such as streamlined licensing, improved legal frameworks, and enhanced foreign equity rights—and sustaining social policies that widen labour force inclusivity, notably among women and youth. Economic forecasts anticipate moderating oil prices and slower government expenditure later in 2025, placing even greater emphasis on private capital inflows and sustainable domestic job creation.

These emerging trends offer insight into Saudi Arabia’s efforts to recalibrate its economic model—balancing fiscal constraints with bold ambitions. While the pace of change remains uneven, the current data points to structural momentum that, if sustained, could reshape the Kingdom’s economy over the remainder of the decade.

A sharply rising trend in India’s share markets is encountering resistance from multiple fronts, prompting increasing scrutiny over its sustainability. Benchmark indices have enjoyed roughly a 14 per cent rally over the past six months, invigorating initial public offerings and share sales. Yet, foreign investors have been net sellers to the tune of US$10 billion this year, triggering alarm among market watchers.

The spike in corporate fundraising—from HDB Financial Services and others—has elevated supply to near record levels, raising the prospect of a correction should demand fail to keep pace. With IPOs totalling around US$1.75 billion launching this week and dozens more awaiting approval, promoters are cashing out aggressively. Companies such as British American Tobacco and Reliance Industries have conducted substantial secondary offerings, exacerbating the supply pressure.

Foreign institutional investors have pulled capital at a faster clip. Already offloaded nearly US$29 billion from Indian equities since October as they pivoted to China in search of stimulus-led returns. Over the January–March period, FPIs unwound ₹61,000 crore from the Indian market amid global headwinds, while June saw ₹8,749 crore in fresh outflows on escalating US–China trade friction and rising yields abroad.

The domestic funding round is proving insufficient to fill the gap. Domestic mutual fund inflows recorded a 13‑month low, signalling wavering local investor sentiment. The result: valuations are increasingly stretched, and analysts caution that the market may be overextending.

Oil price volatility adds another layer of risk. India’s dependence on imported crude leaves its markets vulnerable to geopolitical flare-ups. Experts warn that if Brent crude surpasses US$80 per barrel due to conflict in West Asia, inflation could spike and equity valuations may come under renewed selling pressure.

Offsetting these challenges are encouraging technical patterns. The market has recently broken out of a five‑week consolidation phase, with key indices like the Nifty approaching the 26,000 mark. Renewed investor interest in metals and chart‐based breakout signals have sparked fresh optimism. Improved global sentiment—including a cooling of trade tensions and reported progress in US–China negotiations—may underpin further gains if inflows resume.

Still, some analysts remain unconvinced of a robust economic shift. Growth indicators have softened and wage pressures remain muted. India’s cyclical revival is far from assured, with consensus calling for cautious optimism over the next 18–24 months. Delays in domestic reforms or widening global pressures could blunt momentum.

Santos has granted a six‑week exclusive due‑diligence period to a consortium led by Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, signalling serious progress towards its A$36.5 billion takeover proposal.

The consortium, comprising ADNOC’s investment arm XRG, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company and private equity investor Carlyle, has placed an all‑cash offer of A$8.89 per share—representing a roughly 28 per cent premium on Santos’s previous closing price. Santos’s board is prepared to endorse the deal, pending satisfactory outcomes from due diligence, no better competing bids and approval by an independent fairness expert.

Should the offer proceed, it would mark Australia’s largest-ever all‑cash corporate takeover and rank among the top three transactions nationally—holding an enterprise value near A$36.4 billion.

The acquisition targets Santos’s LNG assets, including Australia’s Gladstone and Darwin facilities, plus substantial interests in Papua New Guinea’s LNG project and the forthcoming Papua LNG development. XRG aims to build an integrated gas and LNG portfolio capable of delivering 20–25 million tonnes annually by 2035.

Adhering to regulatory requirements, the consortium has signed confidentiality agreements and secured exclusive negotiating rights for this due‑diligence phase.

Santos’s management is forecasting a binding scheme implementation agreement before enabling a shareholder vote needing at least 75 per cent support, as per Australian scheme‑of‑arrangement rules. Shareholder approval will depend on a legal and financial assessment of the offer’s fairness.

While the consortium has pledged to maintain Santos’s Adelaide headquarters, preserve local employment, and continue momentum on major projects like the Barossa LNG development and Moomba carbon‑capture initiative, significant regulatory scrutiny lies ahead.

National oversight will involve multiple bodies: Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board, ACCC, ASIC, and National Offshore Petroleum Titles Administrator; Papua New Guinea’s Securities and Competition commissions; and the US Committee on Foreign Investment due to Santos’s cross-border interests.

Analysts caution that the central risk is FIRB rejection, given Santos’s control over critical gas infrastructure. Potential remedies, like spinning off assets, may invite legal and decommissioning complexities.

South Australian state officials, including Premier Peter Malinauskas and Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis, have highlighted the importance of protecting domestic jobs, the company’s base, and energy security—leveraging recent legislative powers to oversee licence transfers.

The political backdrop complicates matters, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers in caretaker mode ahead of a potential election. His decision will pivot on FIRB advice and the national interest implications.

Santos has endured pressures in recent years, including a near‑16 per cent drop in annual profit and a 41 per cent dividend cut in 2024. It also abandoned merger negotiations with Woodside that would have created an A$80 billion energy entity.

The consortium’s revised offer follows an initial A$8.00 bid in March, raised to A$8.60 later that month, and now stands at A$8.89—reflecting sustained negotiations and valuation uplifts. Should the agreement proceed, final receipt of regulatory and shareholder clearances could extend into early 2026.

This transaction underscores ADNOC’s growing appetite for strategic LNG assets in the Asia‑Pacific region and exemplifies broader Middle Eastern investment trends in global energy infrastructure. The outcome will influence the balance of power in Australia’s evolving LNG market and set significant precedents for future foreign investment decisions.

Air India and IndiGo have recommenced services to the UAE after a suspension triggered by airspace closures amid the Israel–Iran conflict. Airlines halted operations on Monday following triggered restrictions from missile strikes on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. With Gulf skies now reopening, the carriers have initiated phased resumption of flights, prioritising passenger safety and adjusted routing measures.

Reinstatement efforts began on Tuesday, with most Air India flights to and from the Middle East set to resume by 25 June. The airline confirmed European routes would also come back online, and services to the U.S. East Coast and Canada are slated to recommence “at the earliest opportunity”. IndiGo echoed this approach, stating operations through Gulf countries had “stabilised”, albeit with some flights rerouting around closed Iranian airspace, which may cause extended journey times. Air India Express has similarly resumed select West Asian routes, including those from Delhi and Mumbai to Muscat, Riyadh, Jeddah and key UAE destinations.

The sudden airspace closure followed Iran’s missile assault on Qatar’s Al Udeid base in retaliation to U.S. bombings of Iranian nuclear sites. Multiple states, including the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq and Qatar, sealed their skies, incurring over 160 flight diversions. Airlines including Air India, IndiGo, Gulf carriers, and major European operators were forced into rerouting, cancellations and prolonged airborne holds.

In Bengaluru, Kempegowda International Airport experienced significant disruption on Monday, as 21 international flights were either cancelled or diverted. Six incoming flights and ten departures were scrapped, while five services arriving from the Middle East were rerouted to Bengaluru. The affected flights included services from IndiGo, Air India, Akasa Air, Kuwait Airways and Gulf Air, connecting destinations such as Doha, Abu Dhabi, Jeddah, Kuwait, London, Dubai, Dammam and Bahrain. IndiGo has since issued advisories encouraging passengers to verify their itineraries via the airline’s app or website.

Airspace closures prompted widespread disruptions across India. At Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport, 48 flights were cancelled. The closures also affected routes beyond the Gulf, with Air India suspending services to Europe, the East Coast of North America and Canada. Such decisions followed safety concerns reminiscent of past incidents involving civilian aircraft in conflict zones.

Air India’s messaging emphasised the phased nature of the restoration plan. The airline noted that most flights to the Middle East would resume by 25 June and affirmed regular updates to passengers via official channels. Delays and reroutings may continue temporarily as the network stabilises. The airline pledged to avoid airspace deemed unsafe by international aviation authorities. IndiGo’s CEO framed the resumption as “prudent and progressive”, committed to using the safest routes amid ongoing monitoring.

Industry experts highlight the additional burden on airlines due to these disruptions. Longer flight paths translate to higher fuel consumption and operational costs. Rival carriers in Europe and the Middle East have already adopted detours to bypass Israeli, Iraqi and Jordanian airspace, citing financial impacts and tighter margins. Brent crude oil briefly climbed to around $70.80 per barrel following the regional skirmishes, adding strain on airline fuel budgets.

Passenger advocacy groups have urged transparency from carriers during this phase. With unforeseen diversions and cancellations, travellers seek clarity on compensation, rerouting options and timely notifications. Airline platforms are now investing in real-time advisory systems to minimise frustration and smooth operational turbulence.

The current easing of tensions appears tied to a ceasefire agreement brokered by the United States, accepted by both Israel and Iran. Although hostilities continue in limited form, the reopening of Gulf airspace indicates improved conditions for aviation. Travel experts caution, however, that volatility may persist if diplomatic progress stalls or military exchanges recur.

For Indian travellers, the resumption of Middle East routes is particularly timely. The Gulf region is a major employment and transit hub, hosting millions of Indian nationals. Restored connectivity affects not only personal travel but also supply chains, cargo links and business routes vital to India’s economic relations with Gulf partners.

Looking ahead, most Indian airlines face a dual challenge: restoring pre-conflict schedules while preparing contingency plans for renewed tensions. Many are exploring additional over-water routes, flexible flight planning and enhanced coordination with aviation regulators. These efforts aim to ensure that in the event of future disruptions, passenger inconvenience is minimised and safety remains paramount.

Efforts to foster youth entrepreneurship in Sharjah have taken decisive shape with the launch of a new initiative by the Municipal Council and Sharjah City Municipality alongside the Family Development Department. Known as the Sustainable Future Youth Programme, the project seeks to streamline startup processes, facilitate licensing, and provide mentorship and finance support for young innovators.

The programme introduces a unified one-stop-shop for business setup, combining municipal services with regulatory and advisory support. It aims to reduce administrative delays and lower barriers to entry for promising youth-led enterprises. Stakeholders hope this will catalyse innovation and expand economic diversification within the emirate.

Under the scheme, participants benefit from facilitated licensing via the municipality’s dedicated entrepreneurship centre. Young entrepreneurs will receive support in completing documentation, securing permits, and understanding compliance requirements. Meanwhile, Family Development Department branches will offer training sessions in business planning and financial literacy targeted at individuals aged 18–35.

Sources within the Sharjah Youth Council say the programme differentiates itself through its inclusive approach to sustainability. Every startup selected must embed at least one sustainable development objective—whether in social impact, environmental protection, or economic resilience—into its business model. Mentorship and advisory services will be provided by experts from government, private sector, and academia, ensuring access to high‑value networks.

Officials emphasised that one of the programme’s early successes is its cooperation with Sharjah FDI Office’s Emerging Entrepreneurs initiative. Since its inception in early 2024, the Emerging Entrepreneurs initiative reportedly processed its first licenses within days—365 Luxury Watches being one example of a brand that expanded into the emirate swiftly. The new youth programme is designed to build upon this momentum and scale the model to a broader demographic.

The launch event featured remarks by Saif Al Suwaidi, Acting Manager of the Sharjah Investors Services Centre, who highlighted the intent to “embrace young entrepreneurs and innovators eager to launch their projects and businesses in the emirate’s vibrant markets”. Sheikha Issa Al Harmoudi of the Sharjah Youth Council stressed that aligning municipal and youth-targeted efforts is key to reduce obstacles faced by local innovators.

Ruwad, the Sharjah SME foundation, will also play a pivotal role by offering membership benefits, financing options, and virtual incubation facilities—especially targeting universities and alumni. As of early 2024, Ruwad’s network of roughly 1,500 members had already started utilising such support programmes.

Earlier in 2025, complementary youth measures were introduced in the emirate. The Sharjah Capacity Development Foundation released Masar, focused on bridging the gap between education and employment for graduates. The Sharjah Youth Council, together with the Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology, also organised the “Industry Pioneers – Make it in the Emirates” session to orient Emirati youth towards emerging industrial opportunities under the national diversification strategy.

These activities reflect Sharjah’s broader ambition to bolster non‑oil sectors—such as manufacturing, tech, and creative industries—to contribute significantly to the UAE’s economic targets by 2031. They also coincide with the Municipality’s efforts during UAE Innovation Month in January that included youth‑centric programmes like Innovative Engineer and Innovative Farmer, aimed at nurturing a culture of creativity within municipal services.

Analysts note that the sharpening focus on youth-empowerment initiatives is timely, given the global rise of youth-led impact ventures and the UAE’s increasing competition with regional innovation hubs. According to market data, Sharjah’s share in domestic non‑oil FDI and startup investment has grown significantly, though it remains modest compared to Abu Dhabi and Dubai. The new programme aims to narrow that gap by improving regulatory efficiency and offering targeted support.

Critics, however, caution that sustainable impact depends on measurable outcomes. They argue the programme should establish clear metrics—such as business survival rates, job creation, and investment attraction—to accurately assess its effectiveness. Some have also emphasised the need to extend outreach to rural and underrepresented communities across the emirate.

Government responses indicate that a central dashboard for monitoring and reporting outcomes will be unveiled in the coming quarter. The Municipality has committed to publishing annual impact reports detailing licence issuance, active ventures, funding accessed, and employment generated. They also plan to host follow‑up workshops and bootstrap funds later this year.

As implementation proceeds, attention will turn to integration with existing initiatives. Stakeholders emphasise synergy with SAEED’s established model, Ruwad’s incubation services, and the Youth Council’s outreach. Plans to forge links with private sector incubators and international investor networks are also under exploration, signalling Sharjah’s ambition to transform municipal-level support into a globally connected entrepreneurship ecosystem.

Israeli defence minister Israel Katz declared late on 24 June that he had ordered the Israel Defence Forces to resume “high‑intensity operations” against regime targets in central Tehran. The announcement followed allegations that Iran had launched missiles into Israeli territory, in what Tel Aviv described as a blatant breach of a United States‑mediated ceasefire unveiled just hours earlier by President Donald Trump.

Trump had proclaimed a “complete and total ceasefire” on Truth Social, explaining that Iran would halt strikes first, followed by Israel, in a phased arrangement ending after 24 hours. Within three hours of that declaration, Israel alleged that Iran launched missiles toward its southern regions, prompting Katz’s directive to strike key Iranian infrastructure.

Contradicting Israel’s account, Tehran’s ISNA student news agency denied firing any missiles post‑ceasefire. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi had earlier stated that Tehran would cease retaliatory actions—conditional on Israel halting operations by 04:00 Tehran time, a condition that purportedly lapsed minutes before hostilities were to pause.

President Trump, addressing the situation on social media, urged both nations to honour the agreement and warned against any violations, offering his oversight as guarantor of the pledge. His announcement followed the deployment of U.S. B‑2 bombers striking three Iranian nuclear sites, and a symbolic retaliatory missile strike from Iran against a U.S. base in Qatar—strikes reportedly calibrated to minimise escalation.

Despite conflicting claims, available evidence indicates a spike in missile exchanges. According to Reuters, Israel’s southern city of Beersheba was hit, resulting in at least four fatalities, while various townships experienced temporary power outages after sirens sounded across the region as Iranian missiles streaked overhead.

Tehran mourned significant civilian losses, with over 10 Israelis killed and more than 250 injured during Iran’s earlier onslaught, which included bombardments on central and southern Israeli regions. Meanwhile, Israel took credit for eliminating senior Iranian military personnel and striking strategic nuclear and missile infrastructure; Benjamin Netanyahu celebrated Israel’s success in degrading what he described as a dual existential threat posed by Iran’s capabilities.

Regionally, Qatar responded strongly, summoning Iran’s ambassador and condemning the attack on U.S. forces at Al Udeid Air Base as a violation of its sovereignty and international law. Saudi Arabia expressed hope that all parties would uphold the ceasefire and de‑escalate.

International markets reacted positively to the ceasefire’s initial announcement. Oil prices dropped, and equities rallied on optimism that the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz might ease—although the renewed strikes quickly revived fears of a wider conflagration.

Experts scrutinise the long‑term viability of the truce. Some analysts suggest installation damage to Iran’s nuclear programme may be reversible, with Iran’s leadership determined to rebuild. Others view the U.S. use of bunker‑buster bombs and Israel’s strategic targeting of Iranian deterrents as potential deterrents that may delay a rapid resurgence.

On the political front, Trump is leveraging the declared ceasefire as a foreign‑policy milestone ahead of an imminent NATO summit. Netanyahu affirmed Israel would respond forcefully to any violations. Tehran warned that its military exercise would persist unless the bombing ended, contending that it acted to “punish Israel for its aggression until the very last minute”.

As global attention turns to negotiations, Qatar’s mediation role and U.S. involvement loom large. The deal remains tentative, with both Israel and Iran accusing each other of breaking terms, and uncertainty surrounding whether Trump’s phased ceasefire timeline will endure.

Oman will become the first Gulf Cooperation Council nation to impose a personal income tax, mandating a 5 per cent levy on individuals whose gross annual income exceeds OMR 42,000 from 1 January 2028, under Royal Decree No 56/2025. The newly enacted law, spanning 76 articles across 16 chapters, represents a historic policy shift aimed at diversifying the Sultanate’s revenue sources beyond hydrocarbons.

The Tax Authority has confirmed that this threshold renders roughly 99 per cent of the populace exempt, targeting only the top one per cent of earners. The fairness-driven approach includes deductions for education, healthcare, primary housing, zakat, charitable donations and inheritance, signalling a progressive and socially aware stance.

Finance Minister Said bin Mohammed Al‑Saqri framed the move as integral to bolstering fiscal sustainability, shielding the Sultanate from oil revenue fluctuations, and advancing Oman Vision 2040. The authority anticipates non-oil revenue will rise to 15 per cent of GDP by 2030 and 18 per cent by 2040, marking a significant realignment of economic priorities.

Preparations are well underway. Karima Mubarak Al Saadi, director of the Personal Income Tax Project, noted that the tax infrastructure—including electronic filing systems integrated with government databases—and regulatory frameworks have been established. Executive regulations are expected within a year of publication in the Official Gazette, ensuring sufficient lead‑time for implementation.

International observers see the move as part of a broader Gulf fiscal transformation. Thomas Vanhee of Aurifer Middle East Tax Consultancy commented that Oman’s decision may anticipate IMF guidance encouraging Gulf states to broaden revenue bases. While income tax may challenge the region’s historic appeal to expatriates, Gulf nations including the UAE and Saudi Arabia have already introduced VAT and corporate taxes, signalling an irreversible shift.

Analysts emphasise that the low flat rate and high exemption point strike a balance between revenue generation and retaining competitiveness. Oil revenue accounts for up to 85 per cent of Oman’s public income, and this reform is expected to reinforce fiscal buffers while maintaining social equity.

Economic research by Gulf‑based think‑tanks confirms that the tax’s fiscal impact is modest, contributing under 1 per cent of GDP initially, but holds strategic value in funding non-hydrocarbon sectors such as education, healthcare, housing and social safety nets. For investors, the tax signals enhanced fiscal resilience and potential stability in public financing.

Despite the progressive rollout and social safeguard measures, policy challenges remain. The effective administration of personal income tax will demand efficiency, public awareness and compliance. Authorities appear to have addressed this proactively, expanding staff training and preparing guidance materials for both individuals and businesses.

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, set to begin within hours, marking what he described as the end of a 12‑day war. The plan envisages Iran initiating a 12‑hour ceasefire, followed by a reciprocal Israeli hiatus, concluding with a full cessation of hostilities.

Trump’s statement on his social media platform outlined a phased process: Iran will commence the ceasefire after winding down its final missions, followed by Israel 12 hours later, and after 24 hours the war will be declared over. He praised both nations for their “stamina, courage, and intelligence” and characterised the agreement as a significant step towards lasting peace.

The announcement follows a dramatic escalation in regional tensions. Israel launched military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in response to Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. Tehran retaliated by firing up to 14 missiles at the U.S.-operated Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. While 13 were intercepted and one deviated off course, no U.S. personnel were harmed—a fact President Trump described as a “very weak response.”

Despite global concerns over escalation, including warnings from France and other Western capitals, market responses have remained muted. Oil prices dropped approximately 7% in anticipation of de‑escalation, while equity markets posted modest gains.

Though the ceasefire announcement has generated optimism, it remains unverified by Israeli or Iranian leaders. As of now, neither government has publicly confirmed their commitment to the arrangement. Al Jazeera noted the absence of official statements from both sides.

The U.S. role in brokering this agreement highlights Trump’s assertive posture. He denied prior suggestions that France’s Emmanuel Macron had brokered such a deal, countering that the ceasefire plan was “much bigger than that.” Analysts warn that trust between Israel and Iran remains fragile, requiring robust verification mechanisms and potentially third-party monitoring to sustain the fragile peace.

European diplomats, including those from France, Germany and the UK, have previously urged for de‑escalation after U.S. strikes, facilitating a clash of diplomacy and military brinkmanship. Trump has also floated the prospect of regime change in Iran under the slogan “Make Iran Great Again,” sparking concerns about the endgame and durability of U.S. involvement.

In Washington, debate has emerged regarding U.S. aims. Trump’s advisors say the administration does not seek regime change, yet the use of the slogan and his rhetoric suggests otherwise. Critics warn that pushing Iran into further isolation could spark domestic instability in Tehran.

Regions across the Gulf remained on high alert during the conflict. Airspace closures in Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait affected international travel. Qatar has since reopened its skies following coordination with regional authorities. Countries in the region—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and France included—expressed deep concern and reinforced calls for dialogue and restraint.

Security analysts note that the potential for a broader conflagration, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, persisted until the ceasefire announcement. Iran’s parliamentary body had discussed strategic deterrents, including the possibility of closing the strait, a move that could severely disrupt global oil supplies. The upcoming hours will be decisive in determining whether the ceasefire is respected or if underlying tensions reignite.

The absence of casualties on either the U.S. or Israeli side contrasts with reported losses in Iran and Israel. Israeli strikes reportedly killed several hundred Iranians, including Revolutionary Guard members, while Iran was testing its limited retaliatory capabilities.

Infrastructure damage in both nations has been notable though not crippling. On the Iranian side, Tehran’s Evin prison and Revolutionary Guard sites bore the brunt of Israeli air raids; on the Israeli side, civilian infrastructure has remained largely intact, shielded by missile defence systems such as Iron Dome.

Stock markets and global commodity prices will closely monitor the ceasefire’s implementation. Should it hold, analysts suggest stability may regain foothold and prices may further retreat. However, any violation could push markets back into turmoil.

Diplomatically, Europe appears keen to reaffirm diplomatic channels. The EU and UN are reportedly preparing statements urging verification and offering mediation. Russia and China have also urged parties to uphold the ceasefire and avoid widening the conflict.

The next 24 hours are critical. The phased ceasefire hinges on mutual restraint and credible enforcement measures. U.N. observers or allied forces may be deployed to Tehran and Tel Aviv to verify compliance. Confirmation of Iran’s opening of its airspace and Israel’s military stand‑down orders will be key signals.

Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, hosting around 10,000 U.S. and allied personnel, was struck on 23 June 2025 by a volley of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran in apparent retaliation for American airstrikes on its nuclear facilities. Qatar’s air defences intercepted the incoming salvo, reported as six missiles by Iran and fourteen by U.S. sources, with no casualties or significant damage recorded.

Tehran described the strike as a calibrated response, matching the number of missiles to bombs used in the U.S. assault on Natanz, Fordow and Esfahan, suggesting a bid to avoid civilian harm. Iranian state media dubbed the action “Operation Glad Tidings of Victory” and stressed it was carried out away from populated areas. U.S. President Donald Trump, characterising the barrage as “very weak,” acknowledged that Iran provided advance notice, enabling effective interception and preventing casualties.

Qatar issued a forceful denunciation, condemning the barrage as a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty and international law. Dr Majed bin Mohammed Al Ansari, spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, warned that the country reserves the right to respond proportionally and reiterated calls for a return to genuine diplomacy. Qatar Airways temporarily suspended flights amid the airspace closure, and India’s embassy in Doha advised nationals to remain cautious amid the unfolding tensions.

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia also condemned the violence. The UAE described the missiles as a breach of Qatari sovereignty and called for an immediate halt to military escalation. Riyadh echoed this stance, expressing full support for Qatar and branding the strike “unjustifiable,” warning of broader destabilisation. The Arab League, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman joined the chorus, denouncing the attack and urging restraint.

Western capitals emphasised caution. France and Germany condemned the missile salvo but underscored the necessity of diplomacy. The United Nations and European Union called for urgent de-escalatory measures and a return to negotiations, with António Guterres warning of the risk of “regional conflagration”. Beijing and Moscow echoed appeals for a diplomatic resolution.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Iran would not succumb to aggression and that its missile barrage equalled the U.S. assault. Tehran also hinted at further measures if U.S. actions persist. Meanwhile, Israel unleashed its most extensive air campaign yet on Tehran, striking sites including Evin Prison and Fordow enrichment facility.

The strikes on Qatar and also U.S. bases in Iraq—though unconfirmed beyond Qatar—have prompted airspace closures over Gulf nations including Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE. Commercial carriers like IndiGo and Air India Express issued advisories or rerouted flights, contributing to widening disruptions in travel.

Global financial markets reacted nervously, with oil prices briefly spiking over fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global energy shipments. The International Atomic Energy Agency, meanwhile, voiced anxiety about the security of Iran’s nuclear sites following the U.S. bombardment.

Analysts suggest Iran’s approach was designed to recalibrate the balance of deterrence without provoking full-scale war. The matched missile count, pre-warning, and focus on a remote military target indicate a calculated effort to signal strength while avoiding mass casualties.

Diplomats across Europe, the U.N. and the Gulf pressed for an immediate halt to further strikes and for major powers to step up mediation. Qatar, a longstanding facilitator of regional talks, is uniquely positioned to spearhead efforts. Both Iran and the U.S. have acknowledged potential for dialogue: Trump spoke of the prospect of “peace and harmony,” echoing Tehran’s assertions that the strike completed its “symbolic” objectives.

But with tensions now inflamed between Iran, Israel and the U.S., and Gulf states on alert, diplomatic channels face a critical juncture. Any miscalculation could unleash renewed conflict across the region.