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The shift reflects a sharp change in investor preference after months of underperformance by Hong Kong equities against mainland peers. Mainland investors sold about HK$3.6 billion of Hong Kong shares through the trading links last month, the first monthly net outflow since June 2023 and one of only a small number of monthly selling episodes since the southbound channel became a key route for mainland money into the city’s market.

The move is striking because southbound buying has been one of the strongest supports for Hong Kong stocks over the past year. Mainland funds poured into high-dividend banks, telecoms groups, energy companies and internet platforms during earlier phases of the rally, helping offset caution among global investors. That support is now weakening as domestic funds chase companies tied to AI infrastructure, chips, optical modules, software and computing power.

Onshore AI shares have delivered a stronger performance than Hong Kong’s technology benchmarks this year. The CSI Artificial Intelligence Index has risen sharply, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has lagged, weighed down by concerns over platform margins, heavy spending on AI models and pressure from subsidy battles in e-commerce and online services. The divergence has encouraged active money managers and retail traders to reassess whether Hong Kong-listed internet giants still offer the most attractive exposure to China’s technology story.

The change in flows also comes as Beijing’s industrial policy continues to favour advanced manufacturing, domestic semiconductors, large language models and high-end computing. Companies linked to AI servers, data centres, optical communications, robotics and chip design have become favoured market proxies for China’s effort to reduce dependence on foreign technology. That policy backdrop has helped support valuations even as questions persist over earnings visibility, capital expenditure demands and competition.

Cambricon Technologies, Zhongji Innolight, Kingsoft Office, iFlytek and other mainland-listed technology names have been among the companies watched closely by investors seeking domestic AI exposure. Hong Kong still hosts major technology groups such as Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, Meituan and Xiaomi, but the market’s heavyweight structure makes it more exposed to mature platform businesses than to the faster-growing AI hardware and infrastructure supply chain favoured by onshore traders.

Hong Kong’s role as a fundraising centre remains intact despite the outflow. The city has continued to attract listings from technology, healthcare, robotics and semiconductor-related companies, while mainland firms still view it as the most practical offshore venue for raising international capital. Several AI and chip-linked companies are preparing or considering Hong Kong share sales, suggesting the city remains central to China’s capital market architecture even as secondary-market money rotates elsewhere.

The weakness in southbound appetite also reflects broader caution over Hong Kong valuations after a strong earlier advance. Investors who bought the market for dividends and policy support are locking in gains while seeking higher-beta opportunities at home. The shift does not necessarily point to a structural rejection of Hong Kong stocks, but it does show that mainland money is becoming more selective after helping drive earlier momentum.

Regulatory pressure on offshore investment channels may also be influencing behaviour. Authorities have tightened scrutiny of unauthorised cross-border trading accounts and offshore brokerage activity, reinforcing the appeal of regulated domestic routes. While Stock Connect remains an approved mechanism, wider efforts to keep capital within supervised channels have added another layer of sensitivity around outbound allocations.

Market analysts say the key question is whether the AI-led onshore rally can broaden beyond a narrow group of highly valued companies. China’s AI supply chain is benefiting from state support, falling model costs and growing enterprise adoption, but investors face risks from crowded positioning, uneven profitability and rapid technological shifts. Several AI-linked companies still trade more on expectations than on proven earnings, leaving the sector vulnerable to volatility if sentiment turns.

The stock climbed about 6 per cent on Tuesday as investors reacted to signs that Tencent is moving closer to embedding a task-performing assistant inside WeChat, the messaging, payments and social platform used by more than 1.4 billion people. The prototype is designed to help users complete everyday actions within the app, including finding venues, interacting with mini-programmes and placing customised orders, rather than merely answering questions in chatbot form.

The planned agent would mark a significant step in Tencent’s push to convert its AI investments into consumer products at scale. WeChat already functions as a digital operating system for daily life in China, covering messaging, payments, shopping, food delivery, public services, entertainment, ride-hailing and enterprise communication. That reach gives Tencent an advantage that few rivals can match: a single platform with a vast user base, heavy daily engagement and a dense network of third-party services.

People familiar with the prototype have indicated that users would be able to access the AI agent through a swipe gesture on the main WeChat screen. Tencent is expected to begin the regulatory compliance process before wider testing, with a small group of external users likely to receive access before any phased public launch. A firm release date has not been set, reflecting both regulatory uncertainty and the technical demands of deploying agentic AI across a platform of WeChat’s size.

The market response underscores how investors are reassessing Tencent’s AI position after months of concern that the company was trailing Alibaba, ByteDance and Baidu in the race to commercialise generative AI. Tencent has promoted Yuanbao, its AI chatbot, developed its Hunyuan foundation model and introduced productivity-focused AI tools, but WeChat remains the asset most capable of turning those efforts into a daily consumer habit.

Tencent’s first-quarter earnings showed both the strength and the cost of that strategy. Revenue rose 9 per cent year on year to RMB196.5 billion, while IFRS net profit attributable to equity holders increased 21 per cent to RMB58.1 billion. Marketing services revenue rose 20 per cent to RMB38.2 billion, helped by AI-driven advertising improvements, while domestic games revenue grew 6 per cent and international games revenue climbed 13 per cent. Capital expenditure reached RMB31.9 billion, up 16 per cent, as spending on AI infrastructure continued to rise.

The company has told investors that new AI products are weighing on margins, even as core businesses continue to generate strong cash flow. Excluding new AI products, non-IFRS operating profit rose 17 per cent in the first quarter, compared with a 9 per cent increase overall. That gap highlights the near-term drag from AI investment, but also explains why investors are sensitive to any sign that Tencent can place AI directly into revenue-generating services.

Competition is intensifying across China’s technology sector. Alibaba has pushed Qwen into consumer and enterprise markets, ByteDance has expanded AI features across its content ecosystem, and Baidu continues to build around Ernie and AI cloud services. The key battleground is shifting from chatbots to agents that can perform tasks, connect with apps and act across digital services with limited user input.

WeChat’s mini-programme ecosystem could be central to Tencent’s approach. Millions of merchants, developers and service providers already operate within the platform, allowing an AI agent to navigate services without pushing users outside Tencent’s environment. For merchants, an effective agent could increase conversion rates by shortening the path from search to purchase. For Tencent, it could deepen engagement, improve advertising relevance and strengthen its fintech and business services ecosystem.

Regulation remains a critical constraint. China requires generative AI services offered to the public to comply with rules covering data security, content control and algorithmic governance. Any WeChat agent would need to satisfy those requirements before broad release, especially because it could interact with payments, commerce and public services.

The reported move, if confirmed, would mark a significant shift in the composition of India’s external buffers at a time when oil prices, foreign portfolio outflows and import demand are combining to test the country’s balance of payments position. The RBI has not publicly confirmed any gold sale of that scale, and the latest available reserve data show a fall in the value of gold holdings rather than a definitive disclosure of physical bullion sales.

India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to $681.4 billion for the week ended May 22, down $7.5 billion from the previous week. Foreign currency assets declined by about $3 billion to $543 billion, while the value of gold reserves dropped by roughly $4.5 billion. The fall came as the rupee traded near record lows, having weakened by more than 4 per cent since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict and the accompanying rise in energy prices.

The rupee has been under sustained pressure from higher crude oil and liquefied natural gas costs, wider hedging by importers and withdrawals by overseas investors from domestic equities. Brent crude has traded in the mid-$90 range, raising concern over India’s import bill because the country depends heavily on overseas energy supplies. Any prolonged disruption in Gulf shipping routes would add to inflation risks and intensify demand for dollars from refiners and importers.

The RBI has intervened through state-run banks to slow the currency’s decline, with traders indicating that the central bank has been uncomfortable with disorderly depreciation. The rupee was around 95 to the dollar this week after briefly sliding close to 97 in May. The central bank’s policy decision due this week is being watched for signals on whether it will rely mainly on liquidity tools, dollar sales and administrative measures, or consider a firmer monetary response.

The reported $12 billion gold-related action has drawn attention because India’s gold holdings have expanded in importance within the reserve portfolio. The central bank held about 880.5 tonnes of gold at the end of March, with gold accounting for nearly 17 per cent of total foreign exchange reserves. The physical stock has been broadly steady around 880 tonnes since mid-2025, suggesting that changes in the dollar value of gold reserves can reflect price movements, accounting effects and reserve operations as well as outright sales.

Gold has become a larger part of central bank reserves worldwide as monetary authorities seek diversification away from dollar assets and protection against geopolitical shocks. India has also moved more of its bullion to domestic vaults, reducing custody risks linked to overseas storage. That strategy had been seen as a long-term strengthening of sovereign reserve control, making any suggestion of sizeable gold liquidation politically and financially sensitive.

The government has moved separately to curb foreign exchange outflows. Import duties on gold and silver have been lifted sharply to about 15 per cent from 6 per cent, reversing earlier tariff relief and increasing the landed cost of precious metals. Rules around some bullion imports have also been tightened, while appeals have been made to households to reduce discretionary gold purchases.

Fuel prices have also been raised as state-run retailers pass through part of the increase in international crude costs. Petrol and diesel prices have risen after several years of limited retail adjustments, adding to household costs but reducing the burden on public-sector oil marketing companies. The step is intended to limit under-recoveries at fuel retailers and reduce the fiscal strain that would otherwise build if global prices stay elevated.

The combined policy response reflects the strain of a classic external shock: a weaker currency lifts import costs, higher oil prices widen the trade deficit, and investors demand higher compensation for risk. India enters this phase with substantial reserves, moderate inflation by past crisis standards and a financial system that remains broadly stable, but the speed of the rupee’s decline has revived comparisons with earlier episodes of currency stress.

For markets, the key question is whether the central bank can preserve confidence without exhausting liquid dollar assets or signalling panic. A calibrated use of reserves can smooth volatility, but heavy intervention may raise doubts if investors see it as a defence of a particular exchange-rate level. The RBI’s challenge is to keep currency markets orderly while allowing enough flexibility for the rupee to adjust to the oil shock and global risk aversion.

Shares in Masayoshi Son’s technology investment group surged in Tokyo trading, lifting its market value to about ¥47.2 trillion, or roughly $296 billion, ahead of Toyota’s ¥45.7 trillion after the carmaker’s stock fell nearly 5 per cent. The move placed SoftBank at the top of Japan’s corporate valuation table for the first time in more than two decades and added momentum to a Nikkei 225 rally that pushed the index above 67,000.

The change is more than a stock-market milestone. It reflects how the AI boom has reshaped capital allocation in Japan, where investors are assigning higher value to companies with exposure to semiconductors, data centres, power infrastructure and generative AI platforms. Toyota remains one of the world’s largest and most profitable carmakers, but its valuation is now being weighed against a slower earnings outlook, tariff pressure, currency swings and the heavy cost of electrification.

SoftBank’s advance has been driven by a powerful combination of portfolio gains and expectations that its AI-linked holdings could generate fresh liquidity. The group’s exposure to Arm, the British chip-design company it took public in 2023, has become a key pillar of its market value. Arm’s technology is used widely across smartphones, cloud computing and increasingly AI-related chips, giving SoftBank a central position in the semiconductor supply chain.

OpenAI has become the second major driver of investor attention. SoftBank has committed tens of billions of dollars to the ChatGPT developer and is positioning itself as a core financier of AI infrastructure. Expectations that OpenAI could move towards a public listing have intensified interest in SoftBank’s asset base, even as analysts continue to debate how much of the group’s valuation depends on private-market pricing and future monetisation.

The latest surge followed SoftBank’s plan to invest up to €75 billion in AI infrastructure in France, including data centres and power-intensive computing capacity. The first phase is expected to involve about €45 billion of investment to build 3.1 gigawatts of capacity by 2031, with further expansion potentially taking the total to 5 gigawatts. The project places France at the centre of Europe’s push to develop sovereign AI infrastructure, helped by its nuclear-heavy power system and available industrial sites.

SoftBank is also moving to create public-market vehicles around AI infrastructure. SB Energy, its power and data-centre platform, is preparing for a potential US listing and has been linked to a valuation above $50 billion. The company is involved in large-scale power projects designed to support AI workloads, including a 1.2-gigawatt data-centre development in Texas. A separate robotics venture, Roze, is also being prepared for a possible listing, highlighting SoftBank’s attempt to build an ecosystem around energy, construction automation and computing capacity.

Toyota’s fall in ranking does not signal operational weakness. The carmaker reported operating income of ¥3.8 trillion for the financial year ended March 2026, supported by vehicle sales and pricing power despite tariff costs and rising expenses. It remains a global force in hybrid technology, production efficiency and supply-chain management. However, investors have become more cautious about its growth outlook as the auto sector faces higher regulatory costs, slower battery-electric vehicle adoption in some markets, and intensifying competition from China-based manufacturers.

The contrast between SoftBank and Toyota captures a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. AI-linked names, chip suppliers and infrastructure companies are drawing strong inflows, while parts of the auto sector and older industrial groups face questions over margin durability. Kioxia, the memory-chip maker, has also climbed sharply this year, showing how investor enthusiasm has spread beyond SoftBank into companies tied to storage and high-performance computing.

The rally has strengthened the profile of Son, whose investment record has swung between spectacular gains and painful losses. SoftBank’s Vision Fund suffered heavy write-downs after the collapse in technology valuations in 2021 and 2022, while earlier bets such as WeWork damaged confidence in the group’s risk controls. Its comeback has been powered by a more concentrated AI narrative, but that also leaves the shares vulnerable if expectations around OpenAI, Arm or infrastructure listings are revised lower.

The state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation increased the price of 92-octane petrol to 434 Sri Lankan rupees a litre from 410 rupees, while auto diesel rose to 407 rupees from 392 rupees. The revision adds to household and transport costs at a time when the island’s recovery from its 2022 debt default remains exposed to global energy shocks, a weaker currency and pressure on public finances.

The adjustment follows the IMF executive board’s approval of fresh funding under Sri Lanka’s $2.9 billion Extended Fund Facility, agreed in early 2023 after the country ran out of foreign exchange and suspended repayment on about $46 billion in external debt. The programme requires cost-reflective pricing for fuel and electricity, stronger revenue collection, improved governance and protection for vulnerable households as subsidies are gradually unwound.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has told the IMF that fuel subsidies will be phased out by September. The pledge marks a politically sensitive step for a government facing pressure from consumers, transport operators and small businesses that remain scarred by the shortages and inflationary spiral of 2022. Fuel pricing has become a central test of the administration’s ability to maintain reform commitments without provoking a deeper squeeze on living standards.

Sri Lanka imports all its petroleum requirements and also relies on imported coal for part of its electricity generation. That exposure has sharpened the impact of turmoil in the Middle East, where higher crude prices and disruption risks have increased the cost of energy imports. Petrol and diesel prices have climbed sharply since late February, while electricity tariffs have also been raised as part of the effort to prevent losses at state-owned utilities from spilling into the budget.

The price increase comes amid renewed inflation concerns. Headline inflation rose to 5.4 per cent in April from 2.2 per cent in March, reversing part of the disinflation that had helped stabilise the economy after the crisis. Fuel and transport costs are expected to feed into food distribution, public transport fares and logistics charges, with lower-income households likely to feel the effects first.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka responded to the pressure last week with an unexpected 100-basis-point increase in its benchmark policy rate, lifting the overnight policy rate to 8.75 per cent from 7.75 per cent. The move was designed to contain inflation expectations, limit rupee depreciation and support external stability, though it also raised concerns that tighter credit could slow investment and consumption.

Foreign reserves fell 3.8 per cent in April to $6.7 billion, reflecting higher import costs and currency pressure. The IMF disbursement is expected to help rebuild reserve buffers, but the broader challenge remains keeping the external account stable while meeting fuel, fertiliser, medicine and food import needs. A sustained rise in energy prices could widen the import bill and complicate the government’s debt-restructuring path.

Economic growth is projected to slow to about 3 per cent this year after expanding 5 per cent in 2025. Tourism, remittances and improved fiscal management have supported the rebound, but higher interest rates and energy costs could weigh on activity. Businesses that depend on transport and electricity are likely to pass on part of the cost increase, while exporters face mixed effects from a weaker rupee and higher domestic input prices.

The fuel adjustment also revives debate over the balance between reform and relief. Cost-recovery pricing is intended to stop Ceylon Petroleum Corporation and the power sector from accumulating losses that would eventually require budget support. Critics argue that faster price transmission can deepen hardship unless social protection systems are strengthened and targeted cash transfers reach households most exposed to rising food, transport and utility bills.