A landmark judicial ruling on the taxation of foreign investments routed through Mauritius has sent ripples across global financial markets, unsettling investors who have long relied on the island nation as a preferred gateway into India. The decision, delivered by the Supreme Court of India, upholds the government’s right to tax certain capital gains arising from indirect transfers and treaty-based structures, reinforcing a tougher stance on what authorities describe as aggressive tax planning.
India’s decisive stand on Mauritius-linked investments has revived debate over the balance between sovereign tax powers and investor certainty. Government data underline the scale of what is at stake. Over the 23 years leading up to 2023, cumulative foreign direct investment routed from Mauritius amounted to about $171 billion, making it the single largest source of inflows. For decades, the India–Mauritius Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement enabled investors to claim capital gains tax exemptions, helping fuel equity investment, private equity deals and strategic acquisitions.
The court’s ruling addresses disputes that intensified after New Delhi amended tax laws and renegotiated treaties to curb what it saw as treaty abuse. While the revised tax treaty signed in 2016 had already limited exemptions for new investments, the judgment clarifies that authorities may scrutinise older structures if they lack commercial substance. Tax officials argue the decision closes loopholes without violating treaty commitments, while investors warn it introduces uncertainty for legacy holdings.
Officials from the finance ministry maintain that the ruling aligns with international norms promoted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, particularly the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting framework. They stress that genuine investors with demonstrable economic substance in Mauritius have little to fear. However, fund managers say the practical test will lie in how tax authorities interpret “substance” and whether retrospective demands emerge through reassessments.
Market reaction has been cautious. Legal advisers report a spike in queries from foreign portfolio investors and multinational corporations reassessing exposure to India-linked assets held through Mauritius vehicles. Some funds have begun exploring alternative jurisdictions such as Singapore or the Netherlands, though treaty benefits in those routes have also narrowed over time. The broader concern is not a single treaty, but a pattern of assertive tax enforcement that could complicate exit planning.
Mauritius itself faces strategic implications. The island has worked to reposition its financial sector beyond treaty advantages, emphasising regulatory credibility, compliance standards and links to African markets. Authorities in Port Louis have reiterated that the country remains committed to transparency and cooperation, noting that the revised treaty framework already reflects shared objectives with New Delhi.
Economists note that India’s investment landscape has changed markedly since the era when Mauritius structures dominated. Domestic capital markets are deeper, startup funding has diversified, and manufacturing-linked incentives are attracting strategic investors less dependent on tax arbitrage. Even so, foreign capital remains critical for sectors such as infrastructure, renewable energy and technology, making predictability in tax policy a sensitive issue.
Corporate leaders caution that while sovereign governments have the right to protect revenues, abrupt shifts can affect perceptions of stability. Several high-profile disputes in the past decade, including cases involving telecom and energy companies, continue to shape investor memory. The latest ruling, they say, reinforces the need for clear administrative guidance to avoid prolonged litigation.
From the government’s perspective, the judgment strengthens its hand in ongoing tax assessments and signals continuity in policy direction. Officials argue that aligning domestic law with treaty intent ultimately supports fair competition and long-term growth. They also point to dispute resolution mechanisms and advance rulings as safeguards for investors seeking clarity.
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HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach Newswire – 13 January 2026 – Today, KGI has released its 2026 Global Market Outlook, covering markets in the US, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore.
(From left) James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory; James Wey, Head of International Wealth Management at KGI; Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI
After a turbulent year of trade disruptions and policy uncertainty under President Trump, investors face new questions. China has unveiled its 15th Five-Year Plan, as policymakers aim to support domestic growth amid global challenges. The market outlook for 2026 is shaped by interest rate decisions, economic resilience, and shifting international dynamics.
Under this backdrop, we propose the “LEAD” strategy for 2026:
Liquidity Shift
Earnings Focused
Adding Credit
Diversified Assets
Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI, says: “Looking ahead to 2026, investors can adopt a LEAD strategy: L stands for Liquidity Shift, benefiting from a weakening US dollar and interest rate cuts, with funds expected to flow to non-US dollar and Asian currencies; E stands for Earnings Focused, focusing on earnings growth to support valuations and allocating to US, European, and Japanese stocks; A stands for Adding Credit, locking in the credit of leading companies and increasing holdings of A-rated investment grade bonds; and D stands for Diversified Assets, responding to the upward trend in both stocks and bonds by including alternative assets to optimize asset allocation.”
Macro & US Markets The US economy will experience a more pronounced downturn in 4Q25, which will extend into 1H26, and this will have a negative impact on consumption, slowing investment activity. Nevertheless, AI-driven productivity gains should provide some support, with US GDP growth in 2026 forecast at 2.2%. The eurozone will see moderate growth, with Germany benefiting significantly from fiscal expansion and economic improvement. Japan’s economy will strengthen on domestic demand, aided by additional fiscal stimulus. China has demonstrated resilience under trade protectionism in 2025. With inflation risks easing and labor market risks rising, the US Fed cut the interest rates in September 2025, with a total reduction of 75 bps in 2025, followed by an additional 50-75 bps in 2026.
Regarding US stocks, AI-driven productivity gains and cost reductions should sustain solid profitability, with S&P 500 earnings projected to grow by 13.55% year-on-year (YoY) in 2026. However, higher risk premiums may cap valuation upside, leading us to project a year-end target of 7,650 points. Market performance will reflect risk-driven declines in 1Q26, stabilize and recover in 2Q26, and rally significantly around the midterm elections in 4Q26. By sector, among AI-related themes we favor technology, semiconductors, utilities (on higher power demand), machinery for advanced manufacturing, and industrial REITs. Non-AI beneficiaries include aerospace and defense (on higher military spending), pharmaceuticals (on tariff benefits), and capital market segments (supported by active investment banking). As for fixed income, US economic weakness and Fed rate cuts will drive Treasury yields lower, with 10-year yields expected to fall to 3.5-3.7% by 2Q26. We recommend allocating to US Treasuries or high-rated investment-grade corporate bonds in 1H26, then rotating into high-yield bonds in 2H26 as policy rates and economic conditions reach a bottom.
James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory, says:“AI is triggering a new productivity revolution, supporting economic growth and strengthening corporate earnings. While the US economy is expected to slow, a recession remains unlikely, and the short-term impact of tariff policies should gradually fade by the first quarter of 2026. Although the Fed may shift from cutting rates at every meeting to cutting at alternating meetings, the overall environment remains a rate-cutting cycle. In a non-recession backdrop, lower interest rates should continue to support equity market performance.”
Mainland China and Hong Kong Markets In terms of the macroeconomy, with the conclusion of trade agreements among many countries, risks have subsided. However, due to external drag, China’s GDP growth is expected to slow slightly to 4.6% in 2026. In 2026, investors should focus on four key areas for Hong Kong and mainland China markets: (1) In the consumption sector, domestic demand continued to be the core growth driver, contributing more than half of GDP. As the “trade-in” effect diminishes, the central government is expected to implement the “15th Five-Year Plan” and economic conference plans, launching a new round of subsidies covering culture, entertainment, and sports to continuously boost consumer spending. (2) In the financial market, risk appetite has increased. Given the narrowing spread between bond yields and fixed deposit rates, large amounts of savings are flowing into the capital market seeking returns. The fundamentals of the banking and insurance industries have bottomed out, and the credit structure is accelerating its shift from real estate to supporting the real economy. (3) Regarding the issue of “anti-involution,” the PPI remains weak, and capacity reduction has become a focus. Compared to 2015, this round involves more downstream private enterprises and needs to consider employment, presenting greater challenges. While industry consolidation is expected to be lengthy, the impact is controllable and beneficial for long-term healthy development. (4) Regarding new quality productive forces, this will replace real estate and infrastructure as the main investment focus. Digital infrastructure supports AI and embodied intelligence, and humanoid robots are expected to see commercialization in 2026, “iPhone moment.” Leading companies with core technological autonomy in innovative drugs will enjoy higher valuation premiums.
Overall, we are optimistic on Hang Seng Index. We expect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts to drive fund inflows to the Hong Kong and mainland stock markets. Based on an upward revision of the forward PE ratio to 13.5x and 8% earnings growth, we set a target of 30,000 points for the Hang Seng Index by the end of 2026, representing a potential upside of approximately 14%. As confidence recovers, the investment style is expected to shift from defensive to growth stocks. Recommended 12 stocks: XPeng Motors (9868), UBTECH (9880), Tencent Holdings (700), Alibaba (9988), China Hongqiao (1378), AIA Group (1299), Ping An Insurance (2318), China Merchants Bank (3968), Akeso Biopharma (9926), Pop Mart (9992), Tencent Music (1698), and Sino Land (83).
Cusson Leung, Chief Investment Officer at KGI, says: “2026 marks a crucial turning point for the Chinese economy. While the market anticipates GDP growth to slow to 4.6%, “new quality productive forces,” resembling humanoid robots, is taking over as a new growth engine. The most critical signal in the market is the “awakening” of idle cash—massive savings are flowing from low-interest fixed deposits to the capital market seeking returns. With risk appetite returning and policy support intensifying, now is the time to shift investment strategies from “defensive” to “growth.” Driven by both valuation repair and earnings growth, we are optimistic that the Hang Seng Index will reach 30,000 points, and the allocation value of Hong Kong and mainland China stocks has reappeared.”
Taiwan Market Compared to the dot-com era bull run, which lasted almost five years, the current AI frenzy has been around for about three years, suggesting that the uptrend is still in its middle phase and could extend through 2026.
AI plays are trading at high PEs, such valuations are backed by strong fundamentals. In fact, the PEG ratio of Taiwan’s AI supply chain has yet to surpass 1x. We estimate that aggregate earnings of AI plays will grow by 21% YoY in 2026, following impressive upticks of 35% in 2024 and 43% in 2025. AI stocks now account for more than 60% of TAIEX earnings, and with the ongoing AI arms race, overall TAIEX earnings growth is projected to accelerate from 14% in 2025F to 20% in 2026.
Although the AI frenzy should keep the bull market intact, volatility will rise in tandem due to: (1) substantial cumulative gains, and the fact that valuations are approaching historic highs; (2) policy and political uncertainty surrounding the US midterm elections; and (3) potential changes in the US Fed’s rate-cut pace. We expect the TAIEX to repeat a “smile-curve” pattern, featuring continued strength in 1Q26, followed by healthy corrections in 2Q-3Q26 before closing the year with a renewed upswing.
We think investors need to pay attention to two major themes. The first is a broad-based product spec upgrade trend across the AI supply chain, which will drive the industry into a new growth phase, with beneficiaries including foundries, GPU and ASIC designers, advanced packaging (such as CoWoS), and ODMs, as well as testing interfaces, memory, thermal solutions, CCL, ABF substrates, PCBs, switches, and power component suppliers amid strong AI computing demand and ongoing GPU platform upgrades. The second is diversification and defensive asset allocation. Innovations in consumer electronics, such as foldable iPhones and smart wearables, will provide growth opportunities, while companies with resilient domestic demand and stable high dividend yields offer a balanced strategy combining growth and income. Overall, investors should strike a balance between growth and resilience against volatility in their portfolios, in the face of market fluctuations.
James Chu, Chairman at KGI Securities Investment Advisory, says:“The solid earnings growth driven by AI and still reasonable valuations form a strong foundation for the ongoing bull market in Taiwanese equities. With AI adoption accelerating across enterprises and consumers, demand for computing power is rising rapidly. Yet supply remains constrained by chip and power bottlenecks, meaning hardware suppliers are likely to face continued shortages through 2026. Taiwan’s AI supply chain is set to remain a key beneficiary, particularly those tied to next-generation specification upgrades.”
Singapore Market In 9M25, the overall performance of Singapore’s economy was better than expected as the global trade tensions eased after the US pivoted on its reciprocal tariffs and reached deals with its major trading partners. The manufacturing, wholesale trade and finance & insurance sectors remained the growth pillars of the Singapore economy, and each sector delivered decent growth. In particular, manufacturing’s growth has been robust, driven by the electronics, transport engineering and biomedical manufacturing clusters. The full year outlook is upbeat, as the growth momentum shall continue till the end of the year.
Looking ahead, the global economic outlook for 2026 suggests slower GDP growth for most of Singapore’s key trading partners, including China and the Eurozone, largely due to the impact of US tariffs, which will temper demand for Southeast Asian exports, though US growth is expected to remain resilient from AI investment. Consequently, Singapore’s outward-oriented sectors, particularly manufacturing and trade-related services, are projected to expand at a slower pace than in 2025, although the electronics and related sectors will benefit from AI demand, while some precision engineering and biomedical output may moderate domestically, the construction sector is set to grow, but consumer-facing sectors are likely to remain subdued. However, the relatively low interest rates and continuous government support shall buffer the impact of the slowdown, and the capital market will still benefit from the upward re-rating catalysts.
Chen Guangzhi, Head of Research at KGI Singapore, says: “Thanks to trade de-escalation and the AI wave, Singapore experienced significant economic expansion in 2025. Proactive government initiatives turbo-charged the equity bull run, and this strong momentum is expected to deliver an optimistic economic outlook for 2026.” Hashtag: #KGI #MarketOutlook
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KGI
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Bitcoin’s derivatives market has thinned to levels last seen in 2022, with aggregate open interest sliding sharply as leveraged traders cut exposure amid quieter price action and tighter funding conditions. Data compiled from major crypto derivatives venues show total open interest across futures and perpetual contracts falling to the lowest point in more than two years. The drawdown reflects a sustained retreat by speculative traders who […]
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Republic of Korea delivered its largest current account surplus ever recorded for a November, underpinned by a sharp rebound in exports led by semiconductors, according to data released by the central bank, reinforcing signs that Asia’s fourth-largest economy is benefiting from a global technology upcycle.
Figures published by Bank of Korea showed the surplus widened markedly from a year earlier, driven primarily by goods exports as overseas demand for memory chips and advanced components strengthened. The milestone November result adds to a sequence of solid monthly balances this year and signals improving external resilience after a period of volatility linked to energy prices and weaker global trade.
Exports rose at a double-digit pace year on year, with semiconductors once again the dominant contributor. Chip shipments, which had slumped during the global downturn in memory prices, rebounded strongly as inventories normalised and orders increased from data-centre operators and manufacturers deploying artificial intelligence workloads. Analysts said demand for high-bandwidth memory and advanced logic chips has been particularly supportive for Korean producers.
The current account surplus, which measures the balance of trade in goods and services alongside income flows, was also supported by a narrower energy import bill. Lower prices for crude oil and liquefied natural gas compared with last year reduced the cost of imports, amplifying the positive effect of export growth. Services remained in deficit, reflecting outbound travel by residents, but the shortfall was smaller than earlier in the year.
Economists link the export recovery to the improving cycle in global technology spending. Korean chipmakers, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, have benefited from rising prices for dynamic random-access memory and NAND flash products, as well as from long-term contracts tied to AI infrastructure. Both firms have announced higher capital expenditure plans focused on advanced memory and packaging technologies, moves that are already filtering through trade data.
Beyond semiconductors, shipments of automobiles, machinery and petrochemical products also contributed positively. Vehicle exports remained robust despite softer demand in some advanced economies, reflecting competitive pricing and the growing popularity of electric and hybrid models produced by Korean manufacturers. Machinery exports gained from infrastructure and energy projects across the Middle East and parts of Southeast Asia.
Income from overseas investments added another layer of support. Dividend and interest receipts from Korean companies’ foreign assets increased, offsetting profit repatriation by foreign firms operating domestically. This helped keep the overall current account firmly in surplus despite the persistent services deficit.
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