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Amin H. Nasser, President & CEO of Aramco, told delegates at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that the company will pursue “energy addition” to cope with intensifying global demand, underlining its steadfast ambition to maintain dominance in oil. He argued that conventional energy sources will remain critical even as the energy transition narrative evolves.

Nasser projected that global oil demand will grow by 1.1–1.3 million barrels per day this year and by 1.2–1.4 million bpd in 2026. He added that Aramco, having kept extraction costs at about $2 per barrel of oil equivalent for oil and $1 for gas, is well-positioned to meet the incremental demand. Speaking to a gathering of energy executives, he said the company can sustain maximum crude output of 12 million bpd for a full year without incurring extra cost.

He stressed that while many promises of the energy transition have fallen short, three shifts are now underway. First, he said the market is conceding that underinvestment in supply has risks. Second, cost pressures on alternative technologies are forcing a reevaluation of pace. Third, energy security is reclaiming a central role in policy-making. “Much of the promised progress has not been delivered, with many unintended consequences. Thankfully, it is finally shifting the narrative in three key ways,” Nasser said.

Behind the rhetoric lies a more cautious reality: Aramco has pared back its previous ambition to reach 13 million bpd, reverting instead to a 12 million bpd sustainable ceiling. That policy shift reportedly followed directives from Saudi energy authorities in early 2024.

In his remarks, Nasser also affirmed Aramco’s push into downstream and petrochemicals. He cited the company’s recent majority acquisition of Petro Rabigh, a 10 percent stake in China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical, and a joint $11 billion ethylene complex with TotalEnergies that is slated to come online by 2027. These moves, he said, diversify revenue streams beyond crude.

His stance echoes his commentary at earlier industry events. At CERAWeek in Houston, Nasser had cast doubt on the viability of green hydrogen and questioned the assumption that renewables alone can displace fossil fuels. He then quipped that there was “more chance of Elvis speaking” than seeing the current transition plans succeed.

Analysts say that Aramco’s optimism hinges on its low-carbon upstream intensity and vast reserves, which give it flexibility against higher-cost producers. The International Energy Agency’s estimates place Saudi spare capacity at about 2.43 million bpd, part of OPEC+’s total idle capacity of around 4.05 million bpd.

Still, external pressures persist. Governments worldwide face competing goals of emissions reduction, energy access, and geopolitical security. In many markets, renewables and storage technologies remain maturing, requiring heavy capital and regulatory support before they can scale. Critics argue that overreliance on fossil fuels could lock in carbon-intensive infrastructure and slow the path to net zero.

At the London forum, however, Nasser signalled that Aramco sees its role as not merely supplying more oil but shaping the discourse. “We are determined to remain dominant in oil thanks to a massive resource base, low costs, and one of the lowest upstream carbon intensities across the industry,” he said. He urged policymakers and financiers to support broad energy investment rather than prematurely dismiss conventional sources.

Ethereum’s value slipped beneath the psychologically and technically significant $4,000 mark today, intensifying fears that the second-largest cryptocurrency may be entering a deeper correction. On Binance, ETH dipped to $3,988.89, down almost 8 per cent in 24 hours.

The abrupt drop triggered widespread liquidations, especially among leveraged positions. On-chain liquidation trackers show nearly $188 million in crypto was liquidated in just one hour during the sharp move.

Persistent macroeconomic headwinds, alongside renewed U. S.–China trade tensions, appear to have compounded selling pressure. The Nasdaq and other equity benchmarks also suffered, amplifying risk aversion among crypto investors.

Technical analysts now view the breakdown below $4,000 as a turning point. From a charting perspective, the fall invalidated previously bullish setups such as bull flags, leaving Ethereum exposed to further downside. One analyst cautioned that extended weakness could push ETH toward the $3,750 to $3,500 zone if pivotal support fails.

Support between $4,200 and $4,300 had held in recent sessions, but now that zone is under siege. Should it collapse, the stage may be set for a retest of $3,900 or lower. Traders are watching whether buyers will defend this corridor or capitulate.

Despite today’s plunge, some investors see accumulation underway. Ethereum’s total on-exchange supply has declined to a nine-year low, with large holders withdrawing ETH from exchanges—an indicator that long-term confidence may still remain intact.

Longer term, expectations remain cautiously optimistic. Standard Chartered recently raised its year-end target for ETH to $7,500, citing heightened institutional adoption and increasing use of the Ethereum network in stablecoin and DeFi infrastructures. Meanwhile, Citigroup offers a more conservative forecast of $4,300 by end-2025, warning that current prices may be more sentiment-driven than fundamentals-rooted.

Major upgrades on Ethereum’s roadmap could yet shift sentiment. Among them: the Glamsterdam upgrade, which integrates enhanced proposer-builder separation. However, a fresh academic study warns of a “free option” risk under high volatility, whereby builders may cancel committed payloads without penalty—posing challenges to network liveness during stress.

In the short term, analysts are split. Some argue that the slide is a healthy reset before ETH resumes an uptrend, provided support zones hold. Others say the breach of $4,000 suggests a loss of momentum strong enough to spark a deeper correction.

Crypto markets are already exhibiting signs of strain beyond Ethereum. Bitcoin is under pressure as well, and risk assets broadly are being squeezed by mixed macro data and higher real-interest rates. Some strategists say the crypto pullback could morph into a broader derisking wave unless fresh catalysts emerge.

Looking ahead, observers point to a few key variables: whether ETH can reclaim and sustain above $4,500; whether buyers will step in at $4,200–$4,300; and whether the network upgrades can deliver tangible improvements to gas, scalability, and decentralisation.

Analysts at JPMorgan are forecasting that U. S. spot Solana exchange-traded funds will attract only about $1.5 billion in net inflows during their first year, substantially lagging behind the inflows seen in Ethereum-linked ETFs. The expectation comes even as the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission is widely seen as poised to approve multiple Solana ETF applications in the days ahead.

JPMorgan’s projection, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, rests on multiple concerns, chief among them the weakening on-chain activity of Solana and investor fatigue in the altcoin space. The firm estimates that the figure could fall below $1.5 billion if headwinds intensify, noting weak demand in CME Solana futures markets and stiff competition from diversified crypto index funds as key constraints.

Network metrics underscore that caution. Daily transaction volume on Solana has dropped to approximately 64 million, down nearly 50 percent from its July peak, a sign that user and developer usage may be waning. Some analysts suggest that capital is rotating toward rival chains such as BNB Chain and toward broader index products, rather than concentrated bets on Solana itself.

Bitwise Asset Management, one of the prominent ETF hopefuls, has updated its application to include “staking” in the fund’s name and set a sponsor fee of 0.20 percent—among the lowest for crypto ETFs. The amendment also promises a waiver for the first three months and for up to $1 billion in assets under management, a signal of aggressive positioning against peers.

Other applicants include VanEck, 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and Fidelity, whose applications carry staggered decision deadlines ranging from October through April 2026. Following the SEC’s adoption of a generic listing standard for digital-asset ETFs, certain filings have been restructured to comply with the revised framework—though a handful were asked to withdraw or amend submissions.

The regulatory picture is complicated by the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has forced the SEC to operate with a skeletal staff and slowed processing of registrations and rule changes. Observers warn that even if the SEC signals approval, practical listing and launch may be delayed until staffing returns to normal levels.

Market sentiment, however, appears largely bullish on the regulatory outcome. Prediction markets and analysts now price the probability of Solana ETF approval at 90 to 99 percent, citing precedent from the Bitcoin and Ethereum cases and the existence of a CME futures contract as enablers.

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a sharp downturn, with over $100 million worth of positions liquidated in the past 60 minutes. This sudden plunge has sent shockwaves through the sector, with both retail and institutional investors facing severe losses. The volatility underscores the unpredictable nature of the crypto landscape, where prices can fluctuate wildly, often within short time frames.

At the heart of the market’s rapid decline is a combination of factors that have rattled traders. A significant sell-off in major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, has triggered a cascade of liquidations. This activity typically occurs when leveraged traders are forced to sell off their positions to meet margin calls, further driving down prices. The market has seen a surge in such sell-offs following a series of adverse market signals, including regulatory concerns, broader economic factors, and macroeconomic events affecting global financial markets.

The recent downturn comes at a time when cryptocurrency markets have already been under pressure from tightening financial conditions across the globe. Inflation concerns and rising interest rates have led to reduced liquidity in many sectors, including digital assets. Cryptocurrency, which is often seen as a high-risk investment, has been particularly vulnerable to these shifts. With investors pulling back and re-evaluating their portfolios, volatility has surged, and cryptocurrencies have taken a substantial hit.

Market analysts have pointed to several factors contributing to the liquidity crisis. Firstly, the ongoing regulatory scrutiny in key jurisdictions has heightened concerns over the long-term viability of certain digital assets. In the United States, lawmakers have continued to debate how to regulate cryptocurrencies, with some seeking stricter oversight, which could have a dampening effect on investment. Meanwhile, in Europe, the regulatory landscape has been evolving, with the European Union moving forward with legislation designed to increase transparency in the crypto sector. These developments have raised uncertainty about the future of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate financial asset.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, has been trading below key support levels, which has triggered massive sell-offs. Technical analysis indicates that the price has dipped significantly, prompting traders to take precautionary measures and close their leveraged positions to avoid further losses. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has followed suit, showing similar signs of weakness. The price action of both major coins has been exacerbated by the liquidations themselves, creating a feedback loop that deepens the market’s downward spiral.

Traders in the cryptocurrency space are no strangers to high volatility, but such rapid and significant liquidations highlight the risks of excessive leverage. Leverage, which allows traders to borrow funds to increase their exposure to a particular asset, can amplify both gains and losses. While it has the potential to increase returns during a rally, it can be equally damaging in a downturn, leading to forced liquidations when assets fall below a certain threshold.

The crisis in the cryptocurrency market also serves as a reminder of the growing role of institutional investors, who are increasingly active in the space. While their presence has brought more legitimacy to the market, it has also introduced new dynamics. Many institutional investors now utilise leverage and sophisticated trading strategies, contributing to the market’s overall volatility. The presence of institutional money means that market movements can be magnified, especially when large positions are liquidated in a short time frame.

Since its arrival in September 2025, the XPL token has drawn attention as the fulcrum of Plasma’s stablecoin-first blockchain vision. The network, engineered to process high-volume stablecoin transfers with minimal friction, stakes much on XPL’s design, distribution, and incentive architecture. A close look at how the token functions, how it has been received in markets, and what early ecosystem moves suggest reveals both promise and pitfalls.

XPL is conceived as the backbone of network security, transaction operations, and ecosystem growth. Under Plasma’s model, validators will stake XPL to secure the network under the PlasmaBFT consensus protocol, earning rewards in return. Meanwhile, the token also acts as the medium for executing non-basic transactions and participating in governance-like decisions tied to ecosystem programs. In that sense, XPL parallels Bitcoin’s role on the Bitcoin network and Ether’s role on Ethereum, though with nuances shaped by Plasma’s stablecoin orientation. The team states that its architecture deliberately ties token mechanics to campaign-driven incentives designed to migrate traditional financial flows onto its rails.

From a distribution perspective, Plasma launched with a fixed supply of 10 billion XPL. Ten percent was allocated to a public sale, while 40 percent was reserved for ecosystem and growth initiatives. At mainnet beta, 8 percent of the total supply was unlocked to support initial liquidity, partner incentives, and launch integrations. The remainder—particularly allocations for team, investors, and long-term contributors—follows graded vesting schedules to temper sudden sell pressure. In the public sale design, non-U. S. participants’ tokens were fully unlocked at launch, while U. S. participants face a 12-month lockup. This dual-track unlocking scheme aims to balance inclusion and capital discipline.

The tokenomics also include a built-in inflation schedule and fee mechanics intended to contain supply pressure. Initial validator rewards are targeted around 5 percent per annum, with planned reductions over time toward 3 percent baseline. Meanwhile, the protocol supports a form of fee burn inspired by EIP-1559; as transaction usage scales, some portion of fees will be removed from supply, offsetting inflation. The combined effect is intended to sustain staking incentives without runaway dilution. Another technical feature is Plasma’s “paymaster” system, which allows standard USDT transfers to carry zero fees, subsidized by the protocol itself. That mechanism reduces the necessity for every user to hold XPL merely to pay gas, lowering adoption friction.

Market reception to XPL turned dramatic almost immediately. At launch, the network held more than USD 2 billion in stablecoin liquidity across over 100 DeFi protocols. Within 24 hours of trading, XPL surged by over 50 percent in some reports—a mark of speculative demand meeting limited immediate circulating supply. Some early buyers from the public sale reportedly reaped significant multiples, even as Plasma distributed bonus tokens to pre-deposit participants regardless of purchase. At peak, XPL reportedly hit above USD 1.50 before retracing to levels around USD 0.90 to USD 1.10. Observers estimated its fully diluted value approaching USD 8–10 billion, reflecting soaring expectations baked into launch pricing.

Yet that market euphoria also exposes structural tensions. The disparity between circulating supply and total supply creates a potential “float risk”—many tokens locked under vesting may exert downward pressure as unlocks commence. The timing and pacing of those unlocks will test whether early demand can be sustained under growing supply. Furthermore, while the paymaster model reduces friction, it also transfers the burden of fee subsidies to the protocol’s reserves. If usage scales unpredictably, that subsidy cost could challenge sustainability unless fee revenue or ecosystem yield compensates.

Another variable is how decentralized and secure the validator structure becomes. The strength of PlasmaBFT relies on meaningful decentralization and active participation. If validator concentration remains high or slashing risks are unevenly applied, token holders may question whether XPL truly underpins a secure, trust-minimized system. The use of reward slashing somewhat mitigates direct capital loss risk, but critics argue it may weaken incentives for strict validator discipline.

Beyond core mechanics, XPL’s ecosystem deployment matters. Early integrations offer a glimpse: Plasma granted XPL funding to Clearpool to support PayFi, a stablecoin‐settled credit infrastructure. That move reflects a play to establish secondary use cases—credit rails, yield protocols, merchant flows—that could entrench XPL usage beyond staking and fees. Meanwhile, Binance’s announcement of a 75 million XPL airdrop tied to its HODLer program signals aggressive token distribution into retail investor hands. That distribution may expand user base but also risks speculative churn.

On the regulatory front, XPL must navigate emerging scrutiny. Since stablecoins straddle monetary and securities domain, a blockchain built entirely around them invites questions about oversight and compliance. To date, Plasma has employed jurisdictional filtering, KYC onboarding, and cautious distribution to U. S. investors, but scaling into global payments heightens exposure. If major jurisdictions impose stricter rules on stablecoin issuance or transfer, XPL’s value proposition may face constraints or require adaptation.

A proposed ETF tracking the TRUMP meme coin has appeared on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s system — an infrastructural step that signals intent, though it falls short of regulatory approval.

Canary Capital, which filed an S-1 registration with the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the ETF, now sees its TRUMP Coin fund listed in DTCC systems alongside other altcoin ETF candidates. The DTCC listing enables clearing and settlement readiness should approval arrive.

Analysts view the development as a technical milestone. Bloomberg ETF specialist Eric Balchunas observed that once a ticker appears on DTCC’s eligibility file, it rarely retracts — underscoring the forward momentum for the product. Nonetheless, he and others caution that DTCC inclusion is procedural and does not guarantee SEC consent.

Canary’s filing proposes that the ETF would offer exposure to the price dynamics of TRUMP token without requiring investors to self-custody the asset. To cover transaction costs inherent in the blockchain architecture, the filing permits the fund to hold up to 5 percent in Solana’s native token SOL, although it will not treat SOL as a core investment.

The TRUMP coin is a Solana Program Library token whose market value hinges heavily on political sentiment, community engagement and volatility rather than fundamental utility. Critics have raised concerns about the blending of political interests with speculative finance, warning of conflicts of interest and reputational risks to the broader crypto ecosystem.

This development coincides with DTCC’s addition of other altcoin ETFs — namely Fidelity’s Solana ETF and Canary’s XRP and Hedera funds — to its eligibility files. These moves have injected renewed optimism into altcoin ETF markets, though all such listings still await the SEC’s green light.

Momentum for altcoin ETFs has accelerated since spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds gained approval. Still, the SEC has kept other proposals on ice, deferring decisions and delaying rulings. The regulator’s patience underscores the risk-management pressures it faces in balancing innovation and investor protection.

Canary’s TRUMP ETF filing follows earlier efforts by Trump Media & Technology Group, which has sought SEC approval for a suite of thematic “Truth Social Funds” ETFs covering areas such as energy, infrastructure and American icons.

MetaMask has rolled out an integration with Hyperliquid that allows perpetual futures trading directly within its wallet, marking a major expansion beyond its core custodial functionality. The launch went live today in selected jurisdictions, enabling users to take leveraged positions without leaving the application’s interface.

This move transforms MetaMask from a simple wallet to a more comprehensive on-chain trading hub. By embedding Hyperliquid’s perpetuals engine natively, MetaMask removes several intermediate steps that historically deter adoption—such as requiring users to traverse to external exchanges, cross chains, or cover multiple transaction fees. According to MetaMask’s global product lead, Gal Eldar, the integration “offers a frictionless path for passive holders to become active traders.” The wallet’s new “one-tap” experience is optimised for mobile usage, lowering barriers to entry.

Hyperliquid, a decentralised derivatives platform built with its own Layer 1 infrastructure, claims to support gas-free settlement and performance at scale. The platform processes tens of billions in trading volume, placing it among the leading names in on-chain perpetual markets. Hyperliquid’s architecture, with reported throughput exceeding 200,000 orders per second, underpins the performance demands of integrating derivatives directly inside a wallet.

MetaMask’s entry into this domain arrives amid sharp growth in decentralized perpetuals. In September, the total trading volume across decentralised perpetual platforms exceeded $700 billion, spurred by trader demand for leverage, 24/7 markets, and non-custodial exposure. Hyperliquid is a consistent high performer, with some estimates attributing to it a majority share of decentralised perpetual activity.

The new feature supports USDC deposits from any Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible chain, and trades can be initiated with a single tap. The integration includes slippage checks, fee previews, and confirmation flows meant to shield users from common UX pitfalls. MetaMask’s team emphasises that the wallet retains self-custody at all stages, with users retaining control over private keys.

Critics caution that embedding leverage within a wallet may amplify risks for inexperienced users. Rapid liquidation, sharp market swings, and elevated margin requirements could expose users to sudden losses. To mitigate this, MetaMask is integrating risk-control measures and permission checks, though the success of those mechanisms will be closely watched by the community.

MetaMask’s expansion aligns with its broader roadmap. Earlier in the year, it unveiled a Mastercard-powered card feature, enabling spending directly from self-custodial wallets. It has also signalled intent to launch its native token, MASK, and is refining a loyalty rewards engine tied to on-chain activity. Those ancillary products may dovetail with its perpetuals integration, potentially weaving them into loyalty tiers, discounts, or governance models.

The decision pits MetaMask more directly against both centralised and decentralised exchanges. Centralised venues such as Binance and Bybit continue to dominate derivatives in terms of volume; however, their users must trust custody and counterparty risk. MetaMask’s proposition is differentiated by offering derivatives inside a wallet, combining convenience with self-custody.

By Nitya Chakraborty Just forty eight hours within the external affairs minister Dr. S Jaishankar’s candid statement that Trump has to respect red lines drawn by India at trade talks, Indian officials joining China, Russia, Taliban government of Afghanistan and even Pakistan denouncing President Trump’s bid to take over Bagram air base in Afghanistan, is […]

The article India’s Opposition To Trump Bid To Take Over Bagram Airbase Has Special Significance appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

Fight Fight Fight LLC, the company behind the TRUMP memecoin, has launched a capital-raising campaign of at least $200 million with ambitions that could scale up to $1 billion to establish a dedicated digital asset treasury that would accumulate holdings of the token, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The undertaking is led by Bill Zanker, a long-time promoter and Trump ally, and signifies one of the most aggressive attempts yet to stabilise a creator-driven token through internal backing. The funds would be deployed primarily to purchase TRUMP tokens from the open market, an effort to shore up price and signal confidence in what has become a volatile asset.

TRUMP, launched just before Donald Trump’s second inauguration, operates on the Solana blockchain under two joint issuers—Fight Fight Fight LLC and CIC Digital—together controlling 80 percent of its total supply. The public tranche was released in January 2025, and the token rapidly gained speculative traction before encountering steep declines.

Insiders caution that the fundraising process is ongoing and not guaranteed to succeed in full. They also note that structuring such a treasury around a politically branded memecoin carries substantial market, regulatory and reputational risks.

Cryptocurrency analysts observe that the move is consistent with broader trends in 2025: increasingly, token issuers are creating “treasury models” to backstop flagging price action. Yet few of those are tethered so explicitly to a political figure or narrative, making the TRUMP case unique.

The token’s price trajectory has been volatile. After peaking earlier in the year, it has fallen sharply—losing more than 80 percent of its value from highs—attracting scrutiny about its speculative nature and sustainability. Meanwhile, TRUMP maintains strong social media backing and occasional high-visibility events, such as a dinner hosted by Trump in May for top token holders, which had triggered a notable price bump.

In June, plans were floated by the issuer to launch an “Official Trump Wallet” to facilitate trading and custody, but disputes emerged with World Liberty Financial. Those tensions underscored internal complexity and fragmented control within the broader Trump crypto ecosystem.

Analysts underline that for the treasury plan to have long-term impact, it must go beyond buybacks. Critics argue that stockpiling tokens may serve only short-term price support, lacking sustainable utility or integration into broader infrastructure. There is a risk that concentrated control over token issuance and vesting schedules could invite regulatory scrutiny or undermine confidence among external investors.

Institutional curiosity is emerging: Canary Capital Group has reportedly filed paperwork with U. S. regulators to launch a spot ETF tied to TRUMP. Yet the Securities and Exchange Commission’s cautious posture toward meme coins, and obstacles in listing a futures-based derivative market, could impede progress.

The broader Trump-adjacent crypto strategy has already stretched into multiple verticals. Trump Media & Technology Group announced a $2.5 billion initiative to build a bitcoin treasury, and World Liberty Financial has launched a $1.5 billion self-buy programme in its own token, WLFI. In that case, about half the funding is to be in WLFI itself, with the rest directed to debt settlement and resale.

Oil markets climbed modestly on Wednesday as traders digested OPEC+’s decision to raise production by only 137,000 barrels per day from November — a figure widely viewed as cautious and aimed at managing oversupply pressures. Brent crude gained about 0.7 per cent to $65.93 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate added 0.8 per cent, reaching $62.24.

The measured increase is part of an ongoing tug-of-war between easing supply fears and softening demand estimates. Analysts argue that the restrained hike helped calm immediate market jitters about a flood of new barrels entering global markets. At the same time, the surge in output from non-OPEC producers—especially the United States—is tipping the scale toward a heavier supply environment.

The U. S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2025 forecast for domestic oil production to a record 13.53 million barrels per day, up from earlier projections. That upward revision intensifies concerns that global inventories could swell, placing downward pressure on prices. The EIA warns that crude inventories may build further, potentially squeezing prices in the coming months.

OPEC+ has signalled a cautious approach. The bloc’s members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia alongside six others, opted for incremental supply additions rather than aggressive increases. The decision underscores a balancing act: securing market share without triggering a disruptive oversupply.

Some market watchers believe the group is constrained by internal capability limits and the risk of destabilising the market. Only about 75 per cent of the targeted 2.7 million bpd raise since April has actually materialised, as certain member states struggle to meet output goals. Meanwhile, signs of macro slowdown and tepid fuel demand, especially in Asia and Europe, loom as headwinds.

Large oil majors are already adjusting strategies to navigate the tighter margins. Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies are implementing cost cuts, trimming share buybacks, and streamlining operations to preserve balance sheets. Oil prices under $65 are straining profitability across the sector, particularly for producers with high breaking-even costs. Shell, for instance, has taken a $600 million impairment hit tied to biofuel and remediation operations in Europe.

In Argentina, falling oil revenues threaten the government’s ambitious economic plans centred on energy exports. Output at the country’s Vaca Muerta formation peaked in August but has shown signs of deceleration due to weaker global pricing and elevated costs. Local industry sources warn that strapped fiscal conditions and foreign-exchange restrictions are discouraging further investment.

Futures markets also reflect a state of tension. The structure remains sensitive to signals that either reassure or alarm about supply and demand balances. Traders are closely watching upcoming US inventory data, geopolitical developments affecting Russian shipments, and demand dynamics from China. Some analysts regard the cautious output hike as a temporary reprieve, with the risk that a sharper fall may take prices into the $50–$60 range if oversupply intensifies.

The International Energy Agency projects a potential surplus of 3.3 million barrels per day in 2026, even if current output levels persist — a scenario that would further test OPEC+’s capacity to contain downside. In contrast, OPEC’s internal modeling suggests a smaller deficit under the same conditions, reflecting wide divergences in forecasting assumptions. Investors and policymakers now wait for signs of demand resilience or fresh supply shocks, both of which could dictate whether oil stabilises in the $60s or slips further.